Ironman Texas 2018 (April 28th) – Seedings

April 19th: The latest startlist has a few withdrawals: Marc Duelsen, Michael Alonso McKernan, Linsey Corbin, Angela Naeth, Rachel McBride, and Caroline Livesey. In addition, Susie Cheetham announced she won’t do the double just two weeks after Ironman South Africa.

April 20th: Joe Skipper is still on the “official list”, but he tweeted that he won’t be racing. There was also another new Ironman list with a few more withdrawals: Cameron Wurf, Philip Koutny, Gregory Close, Sam Long, Derek Garcia, and Andi Giglmayr.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2011	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:08:20	Catriona Morrison (GBR)	08:57:51
2012	Jordan Rapp (USA)	08:10:44	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	08:54:58
2013	Paul Amey (GBR)	08:25:06	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:49:14
2014	Bevan Docherty (NZL)	08:09:37	Kelly Williamson (USA)	08:54:42
2015	Matt Hanson (USA)	08:07:03	Angela Naeth (CAN)	08:55:19
2016	Patrick Lange (GER)	07:13:13	Julia Gajer (GER)	08:11:01
2017	Matt Hanson (USA)	07:52:44	Jodie Robertson (USA)	08:56:32

Last Year’s TOP 3

You can find the full results and my analysis of IM Texas 2017 here.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Matt Hanson	USA	00:51:46	04:13:53	02:42:07	07:52:44
2	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:53:34	04:14:40	02:43:28	07:56:21
3	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	00:49:08	04:15:20	02:49:00	07:58:29

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jodie Robertson	USA	01:02:31	04:43:45	03:03:41	08:56:32
2	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	00:57:57	04:53:47	03:02:27	08:59:31
3	Maja Stage Nielsen	DEN	01:01:02	04:47:31	03:07:45	09:01:00

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:52:44	Matt Hanson	2017-04-22
Swim	overall	00:46:20	John Flanagan	2011-05-21
Bike	overall	04:01:14	Andrew Starykowicz	2017-04-22
Run	overall	02:41:38	Matt Hanson	2014-05-17
Total	female	08:49:14	Rachel Joyce	2013-05-18
Swim	female	00:48:52	Lauren Brandon	2017-04-22
Bike	female	04:40:39	Corinne Abraham	2015-05-16
Run	female	02:51:46	Caitlin Snow	2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 13:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	11:41	-02:11	19:12	-02:48	41	11:41	-02:11	19:12	-02:48
2012	14:02	-00:50	15:23	03:36	27	12:51	-01:30	17:18	00:24
2013	07:03	-01:11	16:44	01:16	30 of 46	10:55	-01:24	17:06	00:41
2014	17:00	01:02	17:51	03:54	44 of 55	12:26	-00:47	17:17	01:30
2015	09:29	-01:19	19:29	-04:34	33 of 52	11:51	-00:54	17:44	00:17
2017	18:46	-00:40	22:40	05:25	42 of 56	13:00	-00:52	18:33	01:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 34% of a typical Kona field.

Expected Race Dynamics:

1. Almost like in Kona, there might be one or two athletes off the front in the swim, but most of the favorites should be in a large group – except for Matt Hanson (2 min back), David Pleše (4 min), or Matt Russell (5 min).
2. Once on the bike, Andrew Starykowicz will take the lead and put a lot of time between him and the rest – probably 15 to 20 minutes. Starky has the fastest IM bike split with a 4:01 from last year, this year he might push the pace for a 4-hour bike split.
3. Defending champion Matt Hanson will try to bridge up to the big bike group. Early in the bike that group should include Frederik Van Lierde, Brent McMahon, Will Clarke and Tim Van Berkel, but it’s likely to break up in the second half of the bike.
4. The best runners in the field are Matt Hanson, Brent McMahon and Will Clarke, and they should run around a 2:45, gaining 10-15 minutes on Andrew Starykowicz. I expect the win to be decided between these four athletes – either Starky manages a sub-3 run or the best runner of the day will become the new Champion.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	5	Brent McMahon	CAN	08:03:00	08:14:00	00:49:17	04:19:42	05:13:59	02:49:01	64% +0% -36% (11)	7
2	1	Matt Hanson *	USA	08:05:04	08:31:59	00:52:47	04:20:26	05:18:13	02:46:51	24% +33% -43% (13)	49
3	14	Will Clarke	GBR	08:08:06	08:30:27	00:49:45	04:26:32	05:21:17	02:46:49	29% +45% -26% (7)	40
4	2	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:08:51	08:27:03	00:49:31	04:17:57	05:12:28	02:56:23	73% +5% -22% (25)	28
5	20	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:09:18	08:25:41	00:54:21	04:17:45	05:17:06	02:52:12	62% +13% -25% (20)	25
6	19	Ivan Tutukin	RUS	08:10:34	08:32:07	00:49:12	04:33:19	05:27:30	02:43:04	25% +0% -75% (3)	(51)
7	4	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	08:11:48	08:22:30	00:49:51	04:25:32	05:20:23	02:51:25	79% +12% -9% (23)	18
8	9	Matthew Russell	USA	08:13:08	08:41:41	00:55:57	04:19:27	05:20:24	02:52:44	41% +31% -29% (44)	(82)
9	42	Kristian Hoegenhaug	DEN	08:13:35	08:38:30	00:57:35	04:11:35	05:14:10	02:59:25	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(71)
10	7	Ruedi Wild	SUI	08:14:45	08:25:29	00:50:31	04:26:45	05:22:16	02:52:29	75% +14% -11% (6)	24
11	10	David Plese	SLO	08:16:28	08:38:57	00:54:35	04:20:58	05:20:33	02:55:55	76% +8% -16% (23)	72
12	25	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:17:18	08:34:05	00:51:05	04:25:49	05:21:54	02:55:24	89% +0% -11% (11)	56
13	16	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:17:33	08:50:31	00:48:31	04:25:44	05:19:15	02:58:18	26% +0% -74% (15)	(110)
14	18	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:17:50	08:31:34	00:50:34	04:25:08	05:20:43	02:57:07	69% +14% -17% (17)	44
15	8	Cameron Wurf *	AUS	08:18:14	08:32:00	00:51:48	04:09:53	05:06:41	03:11:33	45% +43% -12% (9)	50
16	40	Andreas Giglmayr	AUT	08:18:14	08:48:37	00:48:44	04:17:21	05:11:05	03:07:09	38% +0% -62% (2)	(101)
17	15	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA	08:23:02	08:37:15	00:49:42	04:29:24	05:24:06	02:58:56	86% +0% -14% (15)	67
18	38	Michael Fox	AUS	08:23:35	08:37:06	00:48:36	04:29:53	05:23:30	03:00:05	88% +12% -0% (6)	65
19	3	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:25:27	08:33:03	00:49:46	04:05:43	05:00:28	03:24:59	20% +48% -32% (10)	54
20	29	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:25:43	08:43:21	00:49:40	04:23:27	05:18:08	03:07:35	64% +0% -36% (9)	(85)
21	23	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:25:53	08:41:17	00:53:37	04:30:03	05:28:40	02:57:13	34% +18% -48% (28)	80
22	12	Justin Daerr	USA	08:26:14	08:40:33	00:53:56	04:28:17	05:27:12	02:59:02	74% +3% -22% (34)	77
23	33	Per Bittner	GER	08:26:19	08:44:57	00:50:59	04:28:06	05:24:05	03:02:14	49% +6% -45% (25)	87
24	30	Michael Alonso	ESP	08:28:04	08:54:35	00:55:58	04:20:06	05:21:04	03:07:00	0% +42% -58% (3)	(122)
25	17	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	08:29:20	08:59:29	00:50:00	04:35:46	05:30:46	02:58:34	62% +9% -29% (9)	144
26	26	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	08:29:51	08:50:07	00:54:04	04:31:51	05:30:56	02:58:55	55% +45% -0% (10)	106
27	11	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:30:41	08:46:00	01:00:25	04:27:16	05:32:40	02:58:01	79% +13% -8% (35)	92
28	46	Matic Modic	SLO	08:31:43	08:57:06	00:57:18	04:31:55	05:34:13	02:57:30	38% +10% -52% (13)	135
29	22	Philipp Koutny *	SUI	08:33:07	08:56:30	00:52:19	04:25:45	05:23:05	03:10:02	46% +0% -54% (7)	132
30	24	Gregory Close	USA	08:36:29	09:02:36	00:58:48	04:30:21	05:34:09	03:02:20	20% +35% -45% (11)	157
31	41	Tripp Hipple	USA	08:37:25	08:58:36	00:54:06	04:28:35	05:27:41	03:09:44	70% +0% -30% (4)	140
32	28	Sam Long	USA	08:41:48	08:57:30	00:57:29	04:30:39	05:33:09	03:08:39	77% +0% -23% (5)	137
33	39	Derek Garcia	USA	08:42:29	09:00:55	00:54:52	04:30:57	05:30:49	03:11:40	52% +13% -35% (12)	(151)
34	35	James Capparell	USA	08:48:54	09:07:45	00:49:30	04:36:21	05:30:51	03:18:03	100% +0% -0% (3)	169
35	27	Jesse Vondracek	USA	08:49:54	09:09:49	00:55:09	04:37:39	05:37:48	03:12:06	78% +21% -2% (21)	178
36	44	Colin Laughery	USA	08:50:19	09:16:13	00:56:36	04:36:34	05:38:10	03:12:09	73% +27% -0% (9)	196
37	51	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:51:53	09:11:10	01:01:45	04:36:31	05:43:15	03:08:38	86% +7% -6% (70)	187
38	47	Jordan Monnink	CAN	08:52:37	09:17:38	00:53:59	04:39:05	05:38:04	03:14:33	48% +0% -52% (2)	(202)
39	21	Mikolaj Luft	POL	08:56:14	09:17:02	00:55:30	04:30:00	05:30:31	03:25:43	69% +0% -31% (3)	(199)
40	49	Seppe Odeyn	BEL	08:56:17	09:23:21	01:08:06	04:44:48	05:57:54	02:58:23	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(219)
41	36	Alexander Chikin	RUS	08:56:22	09:23:26	00:57:02	04:34:06	05:36:08	03:20:14	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(220)
42	31	Blake Becker	USA	08:56:23	09:18:48	00:58:16	04:38:31	05:41:48	03:14:35	1% +61% -38% (23)	204
43	45	James Lubinski	USA	08:58:32	09:18:50	01:04:45	04:41:47	05:51:32	03:07:00	61% +25% -14% (22)	205
44	37	Sean Donnelly	GER	09:00:24	09:57:50	00:49:18	04:36:03	05:30:21	03:30:03	5% +6% -90% (4)	(273)
45	34	Raymond Botelho	USA	09:03:52	09:25:50	00:56:07	04:30:24	05:31:30	03:32:22	44% +13% -43% (17)	224
46	52	Matthew Shanks	USA	09:13:42	09:37:00	01:00:50	04:55:39	06:01:29	03:12:13	56% +11% -33% (8)	251
47	43	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:26:41	09:51:47	01:01:21	04:49:59	05:56:20	03:30:21	80% +12% -8% (27)	267
48	53	Ohad Sinai	ISR	09:44:54	10:09:42	01:02:05	05:02:24	06:09:28	03:35:26	100% +0% -0% (2)	278
49	32	Max Biessmann	USA	09:59:37	10:36:10	00:53:54	04:46:02	05:44:56	04:14:41	34% +0% -66% (2)	(292)
50	50	Ignacio Rubio Gomez	ESP	11:04:51	11:39:26	00:54:38	05:25:24	06:25:02	04:39:49	36% +0% -64% (3)	(296)
	48	Sebastian Najmowicz	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	54	Christopher Stock	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days or IM South Africa (two weeks before).

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 34% of a typical Kona field.

Expected Race Dynamics:

1. Lauren Brandon will go off the front in the swim, probably building a lead of around 2 minutes to Meredith Kessler and around 5 minutes to the other favorites.
2. On the bike, Lauren should hold on to the lead for most of the bike. Towards the end, Meredith might close the gap. The biggest mover on the bike is likely Kim Morrison who may even take the T2 lead.
3. Other athletes to look for on the bike: Michelle Vesterby & Dede Griesbauer with similar swim & run capabilities, they should be within 5 minutes of the lead in T2. In addition Jen Annett, Tine Deckers and Mel Hauschildt will try to use their bike strength to put themselves in a good position for the run.
4. The strongest runners in the field are defending champion Jodie Robertson, Mel Hauschildt and Jocelyn McCauley. A marathon close to 3 hours could see them move onto the podium .. maybe even into the lead. Texas is usually won with a stellar run!

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	66	Angela Naeth *	CAN	08:55:58	09:39:17	00:59:44	04:43:35	05:48:19	03:07:39	16% +28% -56% (6)	(41)
2	63	Meredith Kessler *	USA	09:02:07	09:14:01	00:51:14	04:49:47	05:46:01	03:16:06	69% +6% -25% (27)	(5)
3	69	Susie Cheetham *	GBR	09:02:14	09:14:05	00:56:38	04:53:08	05:54:47	03:07:27	87% +0% -13% (8)	5
4	62	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	09:04:35	09:17:18	00:58:03	04:51:42	05:54:46	03:09:49	73% +8% -19% (6)	7
5	61	Jodie Robertson	USA	09:05:03	09:44:16	01:03:04	04:48:33	05:56:38	03:08:25	17% +23% -60% (4)	(50)
6	65	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:07:24	09:19:44	00:53:59	04:50:35	05:49:34	03:17:50	78% +1% -20% (24)	9
7	64	Linsey Corbin *	USA	09:07:44	09:19:59	00:59:49	04:54:06	05:58:56	03:08:48	95% +5% -0% (24)	10
8	74	Jen Annett	CAN	09:11:03	09:37:20	01:03:17	04:43:54	05:52:11	03:18:52	27% +64% -9% (7)	38
9	67	Jocelyn McCauley	USA	09:11:06	09:25:15	00:56:26	04:56:25	05:57:51	03:13:15	45% +41% -14% (9)	23
10	70	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:11:34	09:25:11	00:59:49	04:48:42	05:53:30	03:18:04	75% +3% -22% (23)	22
11	72	Lauren Brandon	USA	09:16:00	09:32:42	00:49:05	04:53:49	05:47:54	03:28:06	62% +0% -38% (5)	32
12	73	Annah Watkinson *	ZAF	09:23:23	09:48:01	01:00:23	04:56:41	06:02:04	03:21:19	58% +0% -42% (6)	56
13	76	Rachel McBride *	CAN	09:23:39	09:41:52	00:54:27	04:47:38	05:47:06	03:36:33	100% +0% -0% (3)	48
14	71	Kimberley Morrison	GBR	09:23:49	09:52:16	00:55:28	04:44:42	05:45:10	03:38:39	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(64)
15	88	Sara Svensk	SWE	09:25:29	09:59:57	01:01:54	05:06:23	06:13:17	03:12:12	37% +0% -63% (2)	(74)
16	77	Lesley Smith	USA	09:25:31	09:54:03	00:58:30	05:10:09	06:13:39	03:11:52	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(68)
17	75	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:26:25	09:39:24	01:01:27	04:58:33	06:04:59	03:21:26	78% +10% -12% (14)	42
18	68	Dede Griesbauer	USA	09:26:51	09:47:22	00:54:03	04:51:57	05:51:00	03:35:51	43% +13% -44% (28)	53
19	85	Caroline Livesey	GBR	09:31:33	10:08:18	01:01:32	04:58:43	06:05:15	03:26:18	51% +14% -35% (10)	93
20	87	Darbi Roberts	USA	09:37:06	10:06:57	00:55:32	05:06:41	06:07:14	03:29:52	32% +0% -68% (10)	(90)
21	78	Kelly Fillnow	USA	09:40:43	10:04:09	01:06:28	05:07:55	06:19:23	03:21:20	82% +5% -13% (15)	83
22	84	Helena Kotopulu	CZE	09:43:53	10:13:21	01:12:17	05:07:41	06:24:58	03:18:55	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(106)
23	86	Ashley Paulson *	USA	09:43:55	10:06:52	01:14:27	05:13:53	06:33:20	03:10:35	72% +16% -12% (8)	89
24	89	Amanda Wendorff	USA	09:49:35	10:15:00	01:00:06	05:03:42	06:08:48	03:40:47	76% +0% -24% (3)	(107)
25	79	Anne Basso	FRA	09:54:38	10:14:51	00:59:08	05:14:28	06:18:36	03:36:02	65% +5% -30% (19)	106
26	89	Kimberly Goodell	USA	09:56:49	10:26:56	01:04:13	05:20:40	06:29:52	03:26:57	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(122)
27	82	Robyn Hardage	CAN	09:56:56	10:21:12	01:05:11	05:14:25	06:24:37	03:32:19	100% +0% -0% (2)	(114)
28	83	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	10:06:21	10:33:25	01:02:50	05:32:00	06:39:51	03:26:30	42% +0% -58% (10)	131
29	81	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:09:10	10:42:50	00:58:44	05:27:05	06:30:49	03:38:21	51% +4% -45% (15)	139

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days or IM South Africa (two weeks before).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Matt Hanson: 33% (2-1)
• Brent McMahon: 19% (4-1)
• Joe Skipper: 15% (5-1)
• Will Clarke: 10% (9-1)
• Frederik Van Lierde: 8% (11-1)
• Matthew Russell: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

Even though I had left Susie Cheetham and Linsey Corbin out of my original odds, there have been a few more high-level withdrawals, with significant changes of the winning odds on the female side:

• Angela Naeth: 46% (1-1)
• Jodie Robertson: 16% (5-1) 31% (2-1)
• Meredith Kessler: 14% (6-1) 25% (3-1)
• Jocelyn McCauley: 7% (13-1) 14% (6-1)
• Melissa Hauschildt: 6% (16-1) 12% (7-1)
• Michelle Vesterby: 8% (12-1)
• Jen Annett: 5% (20-1)