Ironman Texas 2017 (April 22nd) – Seedings

IMTexasLogo

IM Texas is the second of the 2017 Regional Championship races – a lot of Kona points (4.000 for the winner), a large prize purse (150.000 US$) and automatic qualifier slots for the winners practically guarantee strong Pro fields. This year’s lists of participants are very interesting, as both the male and female fields do not seem to have a clear favorite.

Update April 13th: On the latest start list Kyrill Kotshegarov is a late addition while Haley Chura and Kyle Buckingham have withdrawn.

Update April 17th: A few more updates: Jens Petersen-Bach, Nikki Bartlett, Kirsty Jahn and Mackenzie Madison are no longer racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19
2016 Patrick Lange (GER) 07:13:13 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:11:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Last year’s race had a shortened bike leg when there were problems getting the necessary permits and bad weather created the additional need for some last-minute scrambles. Therefore, the winning times are not eligible as course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:57 03:39:28 02:40:01 07:13:13
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:56:41 03:31:47 02:48:14 07:21:56
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:59 03:39:27 02:52:53 07:25:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:54:51 04:01:44 03:08:49 08:11:01
2 Jodie Robertson USA 01:07:21 04:01:55 02:59:26 08:16:30
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:06:52 04:06:18 02:59:03 08:17:58

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:03 Matt Hanson 2015-05-16
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:10:07 Joe Skipper 2015-05-16
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48 41 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48
2012 14:02 -00:50 15:23 03:36 27 12:51 -01:30 17:18 00:24
2013 07:03 -01:11 16:44 01:16 30 of 46 10:55 -01:24 17:06 00:41
2014 17:00 01:02 17:51 03:54 44 of 55 12:26 -00:47 17:17 01:30
2015 09:29 -01:19 19:29 -04:34 33 of 52 11:51 -00:54 17:44 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:25
Female Pro Start 06:30
Age Group Start 06:40
First Male in T1 0:48  07:13
First Female in T1 0:50  07:20
First Male in T2 5:07  11:32
First Female in T2 5:51  12:21
Male Winner 8:14  14:39 (2:39pm)
Female Winner 9:09  15:39 (3:39 pm)

The Woodlands is on Central Daylight Time, 5 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • + 15 hours: Sydney (AEST), race starts at 21:25
  • +7 hours: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 13:25
  • +6 hours: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 12:25
  • +1 hour: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 7:25am
  • – 2 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 4:25am

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 31% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Matt Hanson USA 08:14:16 08:33:01 00:54:42 04:28:39 02:45:55 37% +27% -36% (11) 37
2 40 Ivan Tutukin RUS 08:15:19 08:36:37 00:49:33 04:35:54 02:44:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (55)
3 18 Will Clarke GBR 08:15:41 08:38:01 00:50:57 04:29:52 02:49:53 12% +44% -44% (5) 62
4 8 Bas Diederen NED 08:16:03 08:30:12 00:49:18 04:22:15 02:59:29 39% +6% -55% (18) 29
5 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:17:07 08:32:17 00:53:28 04:19:52 02:58:47 69% +6% -25% (21) 35
6 4 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:17:37 08:27:20 00:54:18 04:25:01 02:53:18 80% +1% -19% (31) 23
7 22 Joe Skipper GBR 08:18:02 08:31:46 00:55:32 04:21:21 02:56:09 42% +24% -34% (15) 33
8 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:18:51 08:33:40 00:56:41 04:22:48 02:54:22 45% +40% -15% (41) 39
9 7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:21:38 08:40:22 00:50:38 04:22:57 03:03:03 47% +15% -38% (13) 70
10 12 Callum Millward NZL 08:21:46 08:34:52 00:50:26 04:29:22 02:56:59 41% +0% -59% (6) 46
11 6 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:22:03 08:33:44 00:51:00 04:26:10 02:59:53 51% +17% -32% (12) 40
12 16 Paul Matthews AUS 08:22:23 08:34:55 00:48:52 04:28:14 03:00:16 45% +0% -55% (12) 47
13 13 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:23:25 08:31:01 00:50:39 04:11:04 03:16:43 60% +0% -40% (7) (31)
14 11 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:23:30 08:39:30 00:52:14 04:32:20 02:53:57 54% +0% -46% (18) 66
15 14 David Plese SLO 08:25:38 08:37:25 00:54:15 04:27:29 02:58:55 83% +12% -6% (20) 57
16 19 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:26:02 08:36:45 00:51:56 04:31:10 02:57:56 55% +0% -45% (14) 55
(16) 42 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:26:31 08:37:12 00:55:07 04:24:45 03:01:39 57% +29% -13% (14) 55
17 21 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:26:32 08:55:37 00:54:01 04:30:33 02:56:57 39% +60% -1% (9) 118
18 10 Chris McDonald AUS 08:27:57 08:43:39 00:54:14 04:24:56 03:03:47 65% +15% -20% (44) 79
19 29 Marc Duelsen GER 08:32:26 08:44:04 00:54:34 04:31:32 03:01:20 82% +0% -18% (9) 80
20 28 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:33:20 08:54:04 00:55:23 04:35:15 02:57:42 36% +7% -57% (25) 111
21 9 Jozsef Major HUN 08:34:02 08:53:16 01:00:20 04:29:44 02:58:59 61% +24% -16% (32) 108
22 38 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:34:15 08:52:47 00:54:58 04:26:45 03:07:33 57% +10% -33% (16) 105
23 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:34:39 08:42:17 00:52:14 04:29:20 03:08:05 49% +3% -48% (21) 74
24 17 Matic Modic SLO 08:37:55 08:53:17 00:57:25 04:35:23 03:00:07 63% +16% -20% (10) 109
25 27 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:38:30 08:58:30 00:52:35 04:26:02 03:14:53 33% +34% -33% (12) 131
26 15 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:39:43 08:56:45 00:49:12 04:37:58 03:07:34 34% +23% -43% (19) 124
27 32 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:40:39 09:00:58 00:52:45 04:32:12 03:10:42 26% +0% -74% (4) (145)
28 30 Adam Gordon AUS 08:45:07 09:05:27 00:56:21 04:38:55 03:04:51 31% +39% -30% (6) 156
29 20 Leon Griffin AUS 08:54:52 09:23:53 00:52:39 04:30:19 03:26:53 10% +9% -81% (7) (203)
30 34 Tomas Mika CZE 08:56:13 09:14:55 00:56:38 04:49:33 03:05:03 67% +8% -25% (7) 180
31 26 Antony Costes FRA 09:00:16 09:34:04 00:50:16 04:29:16 03:35:44 16% +0% -84% (5) 234
32 41 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:08:59 09:26:43 00:57:21 04:47:11 03:19:26 60% +0% -40% (7) 218
33 33 Colin Laughery USA 09:10:41 09:23:03 01:00:50 04:46:57 03:17:54 100% +0% -0% (5) 200
34 24 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 09:12:50 09:36:35 00:48:08 05:08:49 03:10:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (238)
35 36 Patrick Schuster USA 09:15:51 09:43:21 01:04:54 04:40:38 03:25:18 64% +18% -17% (8) 249
36 37 Matt Shanks USA 09:25:06 09:43:42 01:01:17 04:57:18 03:21:31 67% +33% -0% (4) 250
37 31 Peter Kotland CZE 09:34:32 09:53:23 01:00:27 04:52:30 03:36:35 62% +23% -15% (23) 264
23 Robert Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 James Capparell USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Timothy Nichols USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Frank Souza BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 71 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:08:57 09:35:14 00:58:11 04:56:20 03:09:25 21% +49% -30% (6) 37
2 51 Kelly Williamson USA 09:10:14 09:33:32 00:54:38 05:10:02 03:00:34 83% +9% -8% (13) 35
3 65 Malindi Elmore CAN 09:13:24 09:37:12 01:03:00 04:57:31 03:07:54 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (41)
4 52 Tine Deckers BEL 09:15:59 09:32:15 00:59:47 04:48:30 03:22:42 55% +6% -39% (20) 32
5 55 Lauren Brandon USA 09:16:24 09:40:19 00:50:17 04:55:16 03:25:51 59% +0% -41% (2) (44)
6 57 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:18:42 09:29:27 00:58:07 05:01:29 03:14:05 71% +18% -11% (7) 26
7 53 Haley Chura USA 09:20:14 09:39:36 00:50:49 05:02:58 03:21:27 64% +14% -22% (9) (44)
8 61 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:24:14 09:48:29 01:00:29 05:00:38 03:18:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (57)
9 60 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:29:11 09:42:04 00:52:43 05:06:32 03:24:56 86% +0% -14% (7) 48
10 56 Amber Ferreira USA 09:31:19 09:57:43 00:57:45 05:03:06 03:25:29 44% +15% -41% (17) 73
11 63 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:31:41 10:02:13 01:01:06 05:12:27 03:13:08 32% +0% -68% (2) (82)
12 74 Darbi Roberts USA 09:31:55 09:49:55 00:55:46 05:08:09 03:23:00 64% +0% -36% (7) 60
13 59 Jodie Robertson USA 09:33:53 09:52:38 01:06:02 05:10:18 03:12:34 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (68)
14 64 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:34:09 09:55:09 01:02:08 05:01:00 03:26:02 100% +0% -0% (2) (71)
15 54 Alicia Kaye USA 09:38:27 09:51:35 00:54:07 05:04:12 03:35:08 100% +0% -0% (2) (66)
16 62 Jessica Jones Meyers USA 09:41:15 10:06:13 01:00:54 05:06:44 03:28:37 100% +0% -0% (5) (90)
17 72 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:41:21 10:02:05 01:00:10 05:15:31 03:20:40 73% +0% -27% (5) 81
18 70 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:41:48 10:03:03 01:01:46 05:05:19 03:29:42 35% +7% -58% (13) 83
19 58 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:45:38 09:58:45 01:07:52 05:10:20 03:22:26 56% +17% -27% (13) 75
20 68 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:51:47 10:06:41 01:03:33 05:09:53 03:33:22 68% +0% -32% (7) 90
21 66 Annett Finger GER 09:54:58 10:10:59 01:03:19 05:12:43 03:33:56 92% +0% -8% (4) 99
22 73 Ashley Paulson USA 09:59:40 10:14:08 01:15:03 05:21:11 03:18:26 100% +0% -0% (3) 104
23 67 Erin Green USA 10:06:04 10:30:35 01:03:33 05:24:45 03:32:46 46% +54% -0% (2) (132)
24 69 Nicole Luse USA 10:19:22 10:45:29 01:11:49 05:32:52 03:29:41 48% +52% -0% (2) (144)
25 75 Francesca Sanjana GBR 10:37:39 11:05:04 01:08:34 05:27:06 03:56:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (149)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A lot of dark red in the “Expected Time” column and the winning percentages below show that there isn’t a clear favorite in the field. 2015 winner Matt Hanson is my top pick, but he only has a slim margin over last year’s second place finisher Matthew Russell who has been consistently on the podium in his last IM-distance races but hasn’t won an IM since 2012. Add in 2012 winner Jordan Rapp (always a contender for a top finish), the two sub-8 Brits Joe Skipper (likely disappointed with his 12th place from IM South Africa) and Will Clarke and veterans Ronnie Schildknecht and Bas Diederen and you end up with a list of potential winners that’s extremely long and could easily be extended!

  • Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 15% (6-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 14% (6-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 12% (8-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 10% (9-1)
  • Will Clarke: 9% (10-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

The situation on the female side is also anything but clear. Jocelyn McCauley has won her last two Ironman races in Mallorca and New Zealand, but she has only had seven weeks to freshen up and rebuild. Tine Deckers has had a crash in one of her recent prep races and it’s unclear wether she’ll be able to race. Kelly Williamson (winner in 2014) didn’t have the 70.3 results this season to build much confidence going into Texas – quite in contrast to Haley Chura who won 70.3 Buenos Aires but has to recover from traveling all the way to China for 70.3 Liuzhou. (Since the original post, Haley has withdrawn.)  So maybe it’s time for a surprise winner? Michi Herlbauer was probably an unknown in the US before this year (even though she was second at IM Austria in sub-9 last year), maybe her second place at 70.3 Texas helped her gain some new fans. Malindi Elmore has only raced one IM before – finishing third in Arizona in sub-9. Finally, Lauren Brandon has shown with her second place at IM Cozumel that she is more than “only” a fast swimmer over the IM-distance.

  • Jocelyn McCauley: 41% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 17% (5-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 15% (6-1)
  • Haley Chura: 9% (10-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 8% (11-1)
  • Malindi Elmore: 2% (40-1)
  • Lauren Brandon: 2% (49-1)

2 Responses to Ironman Texas 2017 (April 22nd) – Seedings

  1. Nathan April 13, 2017 at 9:34 pm #

    No ranking for Jeff Symonds…a proven Ironman and iron-distance winner and podium finisher and one of the best runners in the sport?

    • Thorsten April 13, 2017 at 9:46 pm #

      Jeff was on the entry lists, but not on the final start list. To me it does not look as if he’ll be racing.

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