Ironman Texas 2017 (April 22nd) – Seedings

IM Texas is the second of the 2017 Regional Championship races – a lot of Kona points (4.000 for the winner), a large prize purse (150.000 US$) and automatic qualifier slots for the winners practically guarantee strong Pro fields. This year’s lists of participants are very interesting, as both the male and female fields do not seem to have a clear favorite.

Update April 13th: On the latest start list Kyrill Kotshegarov is a late addition while Haley Chura and Kyle Buckingham have withdrawn.

Update April 17th: A few more updates: Jens Petersen-Bach, Nikki Bartlett, Kirsty Jahn and Mackenzie Madison are no longer racing.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2011	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:08:20	Catriona Morrison (GBR)	08:57:51
2012	Jordan Rapp (USA)	08:10:44	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	08:54:58
2013	Paul Amey (GBR)	08:25:06	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:49:14
2014	Bevan Docherty (NZL)	08:09:37	Kelly Williamson (USA)	08:54:42
2015	Matt Hanson (USA)	08:07:03	Angela Naeth (CAN)	08:55:19
2016	Patrick Lange (GER)	07:13:13	Julia Gajer (GER)	08:11:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Last year’s race had a shortened bike leg when there were problems getting the necessary permits and bad weather created the additional need for some last-minute scrambles. Therefore, the winning times are not eligible as course records.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrick Lange	GER	00:48:57	03:39:28	02:40:01	07:13:13
2	Matthew Russell	USA	00:56:41	03:31:47	02:48:14	07:21:56
3	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	00:48:59	03:39:27	02:52:53	07:25:55

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Julia Gajer	GER	00:54:51	04:01:44	03:08:49	08:11:01
2	Jodie Robertson	USA	01:07:21	04:01:55	02:59:26	08:16:30
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:06:52	04:06:18	02:59:03	08:17:58

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:07:03	Matt Hanson	2015-05-16
Swim	overall	00:46:20	John Flanagan	2011-05-21
Bike	overall	04:10:07	Joe Skipper	2015-05-16
Run	overall	02:41:38	Matt Hanson	2014-05-17
Total	female	08:49:14	Rachel Joyce	2013-05-18
Swim	female	00:51:49	Kelly Williamson	2014-05-17
Bike	female	04:40:39	Corinne Abraham	2015-05-16
Run	female	02:51:46	Caitlin Snow	2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	11:41	-02:11	19:12	-02:48	41	11:41	-02:11	19:12	-02:48
2012	14:02	-00:50	15:23	03:36	27	12:51	-01:30	17:18	00:24
2013	07:03	-01:11	16:44	01:16	30 of 46	10:55	-01:24	17:06	00:41
2014	17:00	01:02	17:51	03:54	44 of 55	12:26	-00:47	17:17	01:30
2015	09:29	-01:19	19:29	-04:34	33 of 52	11:51	-00:54	17:44	00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What	Est. Racetime	Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start		06:25
Female Pro Start		06:30
Age Group Start		06:40
First Male in T1	0:48	07:13
First Female in T1	0:50	07:20
First Male in T2	5:07	11:32
First Female in T2	5:51	12:21
Male Winner	8:14	14:39 (2:39pm)
Female Winner	9:09	15:39 (3:39 pm)

The Woodlands is on Central Daylight Time, 5 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

• + 15 hours: Sydney (AEST), race starts at 21:25
• +7 hours: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 13:25
• +6 hours: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 12:25
• +1 hour: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 7:25am
• – 2 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 4:25am

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 31% of a typical Kona field.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Matt Hanson	USA	08:14:16	08:33:01	00:54:42	04:28:39	02:45:55	37% +27% -36% (11)	37
2	40	Ivan Tutukin	RUS	08:15:19	08:36:37	00:49:33	04:35:54	02:44:52	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(55)
3	18	Will Clarke	GBR	08:15:41	08:38:01	00:50:57	04:29:52	02:49:53	12% +44% -44% (5)	62
4	8	Bas Diederen	NED	08:16:03	08:30:12	00:49:18	04:22:15	02:59:29	39% +6% -55% (18)	29
5	2	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:17:07	08:32:17	00:53:28	04:19:52	02:58:47	69% +6% -25% (21)	35
6	4	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:17:37	08:27:20	00:54:18	04:25:01	02:53:18	80% +1% -19% (31)	23
7	22	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:18:02	08:31:46	00:55:32	04:21:21	02:56:09	42% +24% -34% (15)	33
8	3	Matthew Russell	USA	08:18:51	08:33:40	00:56:41	04:22:48	02:54:22	45% +40% -15% (41)	39
9	7	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:21:38	08:40:22	00:50:38	04:22:57	03:03:03	47% +15% -38% (13)	70
10	12	Callum Millward	NZL	08:21:46	08:34:52	00:50:26	04:29:22	02:56:59	41% +0% -59% (6)	46
11	6	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:22:03	08:33:44	00:51:00	04:26:10	02:59:53	51% +17% -32% (12)	40
12	16	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:22:23	08:34:55	00:48:52	04:28:14	03:00:16	45% +0% -55% (12)	47
13	13	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:23:25	08:31:01	00:50:39	04:11:04	03:16:43	60% +0% -40% (7)	(31)
14	11	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:23:30	08:39:30	00:52:14	04:32:20	02:53:57	54% +0% -46% (18)	66
15	14	David Plese	SLO	08:25:38	08:37:25	00:54:15	04:27:29	02:58:55	83% +12% -6% (20)	57
16	19	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:26:02	08:36:45	00:51:56	04:31:10	02:57:56	55% +0% -45% (14)	55
(16)	42	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:26:31	08:37:12	00:55:07	04:24:45	03:01:39	57% +29% -13% (14)	55
17	21	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	08:26:32	08:55:37	00:54:01	04:30:33	02:56:57	39% +60% -1% (9)	118
18	10	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:27:57	08:43:39	00:54:14	04:24:56	03:03:47	65% +15% -20% (44)	79
19	29	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:32:26	08:44:04	00:54:34	04:31:32	03:01:20	82% +0% -18% (9)	80
20	28	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:33:20	08:54:04	00:55:23	04:35:15	02:57:42	36% +7% -57% (25)	111
21	9	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:34:02	08:53:16	01:00:20	04:29:44	02:58:59	61% +24% -16% (32)	108
22	38	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:34:15	08:52:47	00:54:58	04:26:45	03:07:33	57% +10% -33% (16)	105
23	5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	08:34:39	08:42:17	00:52:14	04:29:20	03:08:05	49% +3% -48% (21)	74
24	17	Matic Modic	SLO	08:37:55	08:53:17	00:57:25	04:35:23	03:00:07	63% +16% -20% (10)	109
25	27	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	08:38:30	08:58:30	00:52:35	04:26:02	03:14:53	33% +34% -33% (12)	131
26	15	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:39:43	08:56:45	00:49:12	04:37:58	03:07:34	34% +23% -43% (19)	124
27	32	Philipp Koutny	SUI	08:40:39	09:00:58	00:52:45	04:32:12	03:10:42	26% +0% -74% (4)	(145)
28	30	Adam Gordon	AUS	08:45:07	09:05:27	00:56:21	04:38:55	03:04:51	31% +39% -30% (6)	156
29	20	Leon Griffin	AUS	08:54:52	09:23:53	00:52:39	04:30:19	03:26:53	10% +9% -81% (7)	(203)
30	34	Tomas Mika	CZE	08:56:13	09:14:55	00:56:38	04:49:33	03:05:03	67% +8% -25% (7)	180
31	26	Antony Costes	FRA	09:00:16	09:34:04	00:50:16	04:29:16	03:35:44	16% +0% -84% (5)	234
32	41	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	09:08:59	09:26:43	00:57:21	04:47:11	03:19:26	60% +0% -40% (7)	218
33	33	Colin Laughery	USA	09:10:41	09:23:03	01:00:50	04:46:57	03:17:54	100% +0% -0% (5)	200
34	24	Jarrod Shoemaker	USA	09:12:50	09:36:35	00:48:08	05:08:49	03:10:52	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(238)
35	36	Patrick Schuster	USA	09:15:51	09:43:21	01:04:54	04:40:38	03:25:18	64% +18% -17% (8)	249
36	37	Matt Shanks	USA	09:25:06	09:43:42	01:01:17	04:57:18	03:21:31	67% +33% -0% (4)	250
37	31	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:34:32	09:53:23	01:00:27	04:52:30	03:36:35	62% +23% -15% (23)	264
	23	Robert Wade	IRL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	25	James Capparell	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	35	Timothy Nichols	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	39	Frank Souza	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	71	Jocelyn McCauley	USA	09:08:57	09:35:14	00:58:11	04:56:20	03:09:25	21% +49% -30% (6)	37
2	51	Kelly Williamson	USA	09:10:14	09:33:32	00:54:38	05:10:02	03:00:34	83% +9% -8% (13)	35
3	65	Malindi Elmore	CAN	09:13:24	09:37:12	01:03:00	04:57:31	03:07:54	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(41)
4	52	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:15:59	09:32:15	00:59:47	04:48:30	03:22:42	55% +6% -39% (20)	32
5	55	Lauren Brandon	USA	09:16:24	09:40:19	00:50:17	04:55:16	03:25:51	59% +0% -41% (2)	(44)
6	57	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	09:18:42	09:29:27	00:58:07	05:01:29	03:14:05	71% +18% -11% (7)	26
7	53	Haley Chura	USA	09:20:14	09:39:36	00:50:49	05:02:58	03:21:27	64% +14% -22% (9)	(44)
8	61	Maja Stage Nielsen	DEN	09:24:14	09:48:29	01:00:29	05:00:38	03:18:07	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(57)
9	60	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:29:11	09:42:04	00:52:43	05:06:32	03:24:56	86% +0% -14% (7)	48
10	56	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:31:19	09:57:43	00:57:45	05:03:06	03:25:29	44% +15% -41% (17)	73
11	63	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	09:31:41	10:02:13	01:01:06	05:12:27	03:13:08	32% +0% -68% (2)	(82)
12	74	Darbi Roberts	USA	09:31:55	09:49:55	00:55:46	05:08:09	03:23:00	64% +0% -36% (7)	60
13	59	Jodie Robertson	USA	09:33:53	09:52:38	01:06:02	05:10:18	03:12:34	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(68)
14	64	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	09:34:09	09:55:09	01:02:08	05:01:00	03:26:02	100% +0% -0% (2)	(71)
15	54	Alicia Kaye	USA	09:38:27	09:51:35	00:54:07	05:04:12	03:35:08	100% +0% -0% (2)	(66)
16	62	Jessica Jones Meyers	USA	09:41:15	10:06:13	01:00:54	05:06:44	03:28:37	100% +0% -0% (5)	(90)
17	72	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	09:41:21	10:02:05	01:00:10	05:15:31	03:20:40	73% +0% -27% (5)	81
18	70	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:41:48	10:03:03	01:01:46	05:05:19	03:29:42	35% +7% -58% (13)	83
19	58	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	09:45:38	09:58:45	01:07:52	05:10:20	03:22:26	56% +17% -27% (13)	75
20	68	Caroline Livesey	GBR	09:51:47	10:06:41	01:03:33	05:09:53	03:33:22	68% +0% -32% (7)	90
21	66	Annett Finger	GER	09:54:58	10:10:59	01:03:19	05:12:43	03:33:56	92% +0% -8% (4)	99
22	73	Ashley Paulson	USA	09:59:40	10:14:08	01:15:03	05:21:11	03:18:26	100% +0% -0% (3)	104
23	67	Erin Green	USA	10:06:04	10:30:35	01:03:33	05:24:45	03:32:46	46% +54% -0% (2)	(132)
24	69	Nicole Luse	USA	10:19:22	10:45:29	01:11:49	05:32:52	03:29:41	48% +52% -0% (2)	(144)
25	75	Francesca Sanjana	GBR	10:37:39	11:05:04	01:08:34	05:27:06	03:56:59	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(149)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A lot of dark red in the “Expected Time” column and the winning percentages below show that there isn’t a clear favorite in the field. 2015 winner Matt Hanson is my top pick, but he only has a slim margin over last year’s second place finisher Matthew Russell who has been consistently on the podium in his last IM-distance races but hasn’t won an IM since 2012. Add in 2012 winner Jordan Rapp (always a contender for a top finish), the two sub-8 Brits Joe Skipper (likely disappointed with his 12th place from IM South Africa) and Will Clarke and veterans Ronnie Schildknecht and Bas Diederen and you end up with a list of potential winners that’s extremely long and could easily be extended!

• Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
• Matthew Russell: 15% (6-1)
• Joe Skipper: 14% (6-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht: 12% (8-1)
• Bas Diederen: 10% (9-1)
• Will Clarke: 9% (10-1)
• Jordan Rapp: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

The situation on the female side is also anything but clear. Jocelyn McCauley has won her last two Ironman races in Mallorca and New Zealand, but she has only had seven weeks to freshen up and rebuild. Tine Deckers has had a crash in one of her recent prep races and it’s unclear wether she’ll be able to race. Kelly Williamson (winner in 2014) didn’t have the 70.3 results this season to build much confidence going into Texas – quite in contrast to Haley Chura who won 70.3 Buenos Aires but has to recover from traveling all the way to China for 70.3 Liuzhou. (Since the original post, Haley has withdrawn.)  So maybe it’s time for a surprise winner? Michi Herlbauer was probably an unknown in the US before this year (even though she was second at IM Austria in sub-9 last year), maybe her second place at 70.3 Texas helped her gain some new fans. Malindi Elmore has only raced one IM before – finishing third in Arizona in sub-9. Finally, Lauren Brandon has shown with her second place at IM Cozumel that she is more than “only” a fast swimmer over the IM-distance.

• Jocelyn McCauley: 41% (1-1)
• Tine Deckers: 17% (5-1)
• Kelly Williamson: 15% (6-1)
• Haley Chura: 9% (10-1)
• Michaela Herlbauer: 8% (11-1)
• Malindi Elmore: 2% (40-1)
• Lauren Brandon: 2% (49-1)