The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over: The July qualifying period ends on July 30th. There are only “one and a half” more Ironman races (IM Switzerland, and IM Canada in Whistler as WPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Ecuador). This post looks at the situation before the last races, who’s currently in and who looks to make a jump in the rankings.
This is an excerpt from the latest update of the KPR Observer where I follow Pro qualifying through the season. If you like these kind of analysis, please subscribe now – until the end of 2017 qualifying, it’s available for a reduced price of 19$.
Women
There are 28 female slots available at the end of July. (There will be seven more in August.) Assuming that Lucy Gossage declines her slot (as she has indicated multiple times), here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Jocelyn McCauley who is currently in the last qualifying spot:
| Rank | Name | Country | Points | Races | Race Plan | Needed |
| 25 | Grohmann, Katharina | GER |
4.470 |
3+1 (960/140) | ||
| 26 | Brandon, Lauren | USA |
4.425 |
2+2 (1600/515) | ||
| 27 | Abraham, Corinne | GBR |
4.400 |
3+1 (960/240) | ||
| 28 | McCauley, Jocelyn | USA |
4.385 |
3+0 (385/0) | ||
| Mack, Danielle | USA |
3.450 |
3+0 (170/0) | IM Canada | 3rd | |
| Li, Shiao-YU | TWN |
3.145 |
3+1 (540/320) | IM Zürich | Win | |
| Joyce, Rachel | GBR |
3.140 |
1+2 (2000/220) | IM Canada | 3rd | |
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| Holst, Tine | DEN |
3.035 |
3+1 (340/400) | IM Zürich | Win | |
| Schaerer, Celine | SUI |
3.000 |
3+1 (515/345) | IM Zürich | Win | |
| DiMichele Miller, Leslie | USA |
2.905 |
3+1 (230/220) | IM Canada | Win |
(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)
(Update July 27th: Malindi was on an early IM Canada start list but won’t be racing.)
Meredith Kessler and Haley Chura were still in the running for a slot last week, they are now out of the Top 28 and have to hope for a rolldown. (Meredith is pregnant so is certainly going to decline.)
Here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open four July slots:
- Katharina Grohmann remains in the Top 28 (slot #1). There is however a chance for three ladies racing in Whistler to pass Katharina (Rachel – Malindi – Danielle), so Katharina is not safe yet.
- The winner at IM Zürich is going to get a slot – either Shiao-Yu, Tine or Celine (slot #2).
- Two more slots will probably come from the top finishers in Canada, best chances for Danielle and Rachel (slots #3 and #4).
This would mean that Lauren Brandon, Corinne Abraham and Jocelyn McCauley would drop out of the July slots and that they have to hope for a rolldown slot or hope for an August slot.
Men
There are 40 male slots available at the end of July. (There will be ten more in August.). Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Kaito Tohara who is currently in the last qualifying spot:
| Rank | Name | Country | Points | Races | Race Plan | Needed |
| 33 | Kotshegarov, Kirill | EST |
3.710 |
3+0 (340/0) | ||
| 34 | Kastelein, Nick | AUS |
3.690 |
1+2 (1280/640) | IM Zürich | |
| 35 | Thomas, Jesse | USA |
3.420 |
2+2 (1100/400) | 70.3 Ecuador | |
| 36 | Molinari, Giulio | ITA |
3.395 |
3+1 (720/750) | ||
| 37 | Colucci, Reinaldo | BRA |
3.390 |
1+2 (2455/435) | 70.3 Ecuador | |
| 38 | Chevrot, Denis | FRA |
3.390 |
2+2 (720/640) | ||
| 39 | Fox, Michael | AUS |
3.355 |
3+1 (405/320) | ||
| 40 | Tohara, Kaito | JPN |
3.330 |
3+1 (230/220) | ||
| Wild, Ruedi | SUI |
3.310 |
1+2 (340/540) | IM Zürich | Finish | |
| Evoe, Patrick | USA |
3.163 |
3+1 (8/540) | 70.3 Ecuador | 8th | |
| Wiltshire, Harry | GBR |
3.085 |
2+2 (305/280) | IM Zürich | 6th | |
| Fontana, Daniel | ITA |
2.860 |
2+2 (515/135) | IM Zürich | 5th | |
| Sapunov, Daniil | UKR |
2.710 |
3+1 (685/345) | IM Zürich | 2nd | |
| Van Berkel, Jan | SUI |
2.475 |
1+2 (2090/145) | IM Zürich | 4th | |
| Wurf, Cameron | AUS |
1.925 |
3+1 (40/35) | IM Zürich | 2nd | |
| Graves, Philip | GBR |
1.850 |
3+1 (5/220) | IM Zürich | 2nd | |
| Koutny, Philipp | SUI |
1.680 |
3+1 (170/140) | IM Zürich | Win | |
| Santos, Fellipe | BRA |
1.435 |
1+2 (855/180) | IM Zürich | Win |
(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)
Last week Patrick Evoe and Harry Wiltshire were still in the Top 40, now they will have to race unless they want to count on a rolldown slot.
With Ronnie Schildknecht going for his 10th title in Zürich and based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open eight July slots:
- The athletes currently in #33 to #34 (Kirill and Nick) will remain in the Top 40 (slot #1 and #2) even without racing.
- Two of the three athletes on the Ecuador start list (Jesse, Reinaldo and Patrick) will get a slot (slots #3 and #4).
- Ruedi Wild will finish in Zürich and secure slot #5.
- At least two more of the Zürich athletes will race well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Harry and Jan (slots #6 and #7).
- This leaves one slot open (slot #8): Possibly Jesse (even if he’s not racing in Ecuador), another athlete from Zürich or maybe even Giulio Molinari if less than five athletes are able to overtake him.
This would mean that Denis Chevrot, Michael Fox and Kaito Tohara have to hope for a rolldown or an August slot. But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!