The race for the Professional Kona slots is almost over: The second and final qualifying period ends on August 20th. The first qualifying period had the majority of slots, but there are another ten slots for the male and seven for female Pros. The final order will be decided in two more Ironman races: The Scandinavian duo of IM Sweden (MPRO) and IM Copenhagen (WPRO), and IM Mont Tremblant. There are also two more 70.3s (70.3 Dublin and 70.3 Indonesia), but as they have fewer points their impact will be smaller, but there are some athletes for whom Dublin can make the difference of qualifying or not. This post looks at the situation before the last races, who’s currently in and who looks to make a jump in the rankings.As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August Slot Assignments”.
Update Aug 15th: Justin Daerr has announced he won’t be racing in Sweden, instead focusing on IM Wisconsin and 2018 qualifying.
Update Aug 16th: A few other athletes have indicated that they won’t be racing IM Sweden.
Update Aug 19th: Situation after the completion of IM Sweden.
Update Aug 20th: Slight update on the men’s side after 70.3 Dublin.
There are seven female slots available this weekend. Meredith Kessler is currently placed in the middle of the qualifying spots, but as she is pregnant she is extremely unlikely to accept her slot. (I assume she will still be asked, so the rolldown procedure might take some time.) Here’s a table of the athletes currently in the qualifying ranks and those that still have a chance to pass Jeanne Collonge who would currently get the last slot:
|1||Moeller, Kristin||5.120||3+1 (515/435)|
|2||McCauley, Jocelyn||4.415||3+1 (385/30)|
|3||Holst, Tine||4.295||3+1 (960/400)|
|Kessler, Meredith||4.265||3+1 (235/750)||pregnant|
|4||Chura, Haley||4.180||1+2 (2890/540)|
|5||Joyce, Rachel||4.100||2+2 (960/220)||IM Mont Tremblant||8th|
|6||Bartlett, Nikki||4.055||3+1 (855/640)|
|7||Collonge, Jeanne||3.910||3+1 (960/280)||IM Copenhagen||3rd|
|Brown, Brooke||3.445||3+1 (540/345)||IM Mont Tremblant||3rd|
|Roberts, Darbi||2.755||3+0 (215/-)||IM Mont Tremblant||2nd|
|Tisseyre, Magali||2.390||1+2 (685/540)||IM Mont Tremblant||2nd|
(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)
Here’s my best guess at who is going to receive the August slots:
- Kristin Moeller and Jocelyn McCauley are safe for a slot – there are just not enough athletes racing that can still overtake them. (Slots #1 and #2)
- Tine Holst and Haley Chura should also remain in the top qualifying spots, but there is still a chance for others to overtake them. (Slots #3 and #4)
- Rachel Joyce has indicated that she is going to race IM Mont Tremblant. She only needs an 8th place to improve her position, and she should be able to finally secure a slot. (Slot #5)
- Slot #6 comes down to Nikki Bartlett or one of the contenders from IM Copenhagen. Given the strong competition in Copenhagen (e.g. Michelle Vesterby and Corinne Abraham) and the requirements to place well, Nikki seems to have the best chances.
- The last slot (slot #7) should be decided in Mont Tremblant between Brooke Brown, Darbi Roberts and Magali Tisseyre.
There are ten more male slots available at the end of August. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Kaito Tohara who is currently in the last qualifying spot:
|1||Weiss, Michael||4.430||3+1 (720/750)|
|2||Wiltshire, Harry||3.765||3+1 (305/500)|
|3||Wurf, Cameron||3.485||3+1 (515/35)|
|4||Fachbach, Markus||3.400||2+2 (1280/240)|
|5||Molinari, Giulio||3.395||3+1 (720/750)|
|6||Chevrot, Denis||3.390||2+2 (720/640)|
|7||Fox, Michael||3.355||3+1 (405/320)|
|8||Tohara, Kaito||3.330||3+1 (230/220)|
|9||López Diaz, Carlos||3.175||3+0 (215/-)||70.3 Dublin (DNS)|
|10||Llanos, Eneko||2.975||3+1 (340/75)||70.3 Dublin (finished 8th)|
|11||Croneborg, Fredrik||2.820||1+2 (2000/320)||70.3 Indonesia (DNS?)|
|Vanhoenacker, Marino||2.555||1+2 (2000/55)||IM Mont Tremblant||7th|
|McDonald, Chris||1.448||2+1||IM Mont Tremblant||2nd|
(“Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying or improving the total points, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)
|14||Sapunov, Daniil||2.745||3+1 (720/345)||IM Sweden||4th – / 5th|
|17||Hovgaard, Esben||2.600||3+1 (540/240)||IM Sweden||2nd / 3rd|
|Baldwin, Nick||2.235||3+1 (230/320)||IM Sweden||4th / DNS|
|Daerr, Justin||2.105||2+2 (720/30)||IM Sweden||4th / DNS|
|Lassonde, Cedric||1.305||2+2 (305/100)||IM Sweden||Win / DNS|
Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the August slots:
- Michael Weiss, Harry Wiltshire and Markus Fachbach will remain in the Top 10 (slots #1, #2 and #3).
- Giulio Molinari, Denis Chevrot and Michael Fox should remain in the qualifying ranks as well, though if they don’t score there is still a relatively small chance for them to fall back too far (slots #4, #5 and #6).
The list for Sweden is still “crowded” by athletes unlikely to race there, but I would guess that we will see two athletes placing well there grabbing a slot (slots #7 and #8).Only Cameron Wurf was able to secure a slot at IM Sweden, practically making Kaito Tohara safe.
- Considering Marino Vanhoenacker is unlikely to accept a slot even if he is well placed, I can only see one slot being assigned in Mont Tremblant – but for that Chris McDonald has to finish second or better so it’s not assured by any means (slot #9).
- The last slot would then be decided between the two Spanish athletes that might race in Dublin, Carlos Lopez Diaz (just having raced IM Hamburg, probably not racing) and Eneko Llanos
– or maybe Kaito Tohara(slot #10).
There are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot – it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday! As soon as the races are over I will post my “Unofficial KPR Rankings and August slot assignments”.
Frederik Croneborg not going to Kona?
I’m not sure if he is interested in a slot this year. He’s doing Embrunman so very unlikely to race 70.3 Indonesia, and that will also mean he will drop out of the Top10 at the end of the August qualifying period.