Kona 2018 Qualifying Before the Final July Races

Update July 22nd: The post has been updated after the results of IM Lake Placid (WPRO only).

This post looks at Kona Qualifying before the remaining July races:

Date Type Race Points
22-Jul IM Ironman Lake Placid – WPRO only P-2000
28-Jul 70.3 70.3 Santa Rosa P-750
29-Jul IM Ironman Switzerland P-2000
29-Jul IM Ironman Hamburg P-2000
29-Jul IM Ironman Canada (Whistler) – MPRO only P-2000

The following analysis is built on the available start lists posted by Ironman and assumes that there are not going to be any late entries.

Women’s Qualifying

There are 28 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the female Pros in July. (There will be another 7 in August.) Here is a graphical view of the athletes who I consider to be safe for a July slot:

KPRWomenJuly22

The following table lists the athletes currently occupying the last qualifying slots:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
(5) Heather Jackson 6.975 (NV) 1+2 registered for IM Lake Placid
Liz Lyles 6.325 2+1 expected to decline (announced retirement)
(17) Annabel Luxford 5.215 (NV) 1+1 registered for IM Switzerland
23 Helle Frederiksen 4.845 1+2
24 Lisa Huetthaler 4.680 2+2
25 Jen Annett 4.615 3+1
26 Tine Deckers 4.490 3+1
27 Anne Haug 4.480 1+2
26 Jodie Robertson 4.340 1+2 registered for IM Lake Placid & 70.3 Santa Cruz
28 Melanie Burke 4.035 2+1 registered for IM Switzerland
29 Sara Svensk 4.035 2+2 registered for IM Switzerland & IM Hamburg

(Heather Jackson validated by winning IM Lake Placid, Jodie Robertson finished fourth and scored enough points to be safe now. Jen Annett finished second and is now “in the bubble” for a July slot.)

As you can see, I’m not counting Liz Lyles as she has announced her retirement and is expected to decline her slot. (The “formal decline” can only happen after the end of July qualifying when Ironman asks athletes to accept their slots.) There is are also Heather Jackson (registered for IM Lake Placid) and Annabel Luxford (registered for IM Switzerland) who still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a points slot, but they should be able to do so in their races. With these reasonable assumptions, Sara Svensk Melanie Burke currently occupies the last qualifying spot with 4.035 points. (She has the same number of points as Melanie Burke Sara but is ahead behind on the tie-breaker top score.) Also, Helle Frederiksen is “safe” for a slot, there are only six athletes with a chance to pass her in the remaining races so she can’t fall further back than to 28th points place.

The following table lists what each of the athletes who are on one of the start lists and who can still overtake Sara Melanie will need, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass Sara, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured).

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Maja Stage Nielsen 3.335 2+1 IM Hamburg 5th (2nd)
Corinne Abraham 3.280 2+1 IM Hamburg 4th (2nd)
Jen Annett 3.255 2+2 IM Lake Placid 3rd (win)
Kelsey Withrow 2.560 1+2 IM Lake Placid, 70.3 Santa Rosa 2nd (n/a)
Daniela Sämmler 2.460 1+2 IM Hamburg 2nd (n/a)
Martina Kunz 2.330 2+2 IM Zürich win (n/a)

There are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining July races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

Men’s Qualifying

There are 40 Kona points slots (not counting the Automatic Qualifiers) for the male Pros in July. (There will be another 10 in August.) Here is a quick view of the athletes that I consider safe for a July slot:

KPRMen

The following table lists the male Pros in the last qualifying ranks:

Rank Athlete Points Races Comments
(7) James Cunnama 6.500 1+2 (NV) registered for IM Hamburg
Boris Stein 3.920 1+2 (NV) not racing in July, looking to validate in Copenhagen
(28) Bart Aernouts 3.865 1+2 (NV) registered for IM Hamburg
29 Romain Guillaume 3.795 2+2
30 Luke McKenzie 3.715 2+1
31 Tyler Butterfield 3.705 2+2 after 70.3 Santa Rosa
32 Thiago Vinhal 3.700 3+1
33 Matt Chrabot 3.630 1+2
34 Marino Vanhoenacker 3.600 2+0 unknown if interested in a slot, registered for IM Canada
35 Tim Reed 3.470 2+2
36 Callum Millward 3.465 2+2 registered for IM Canada
37 Denis Chevrot 3.465 2+2
38 Will Clarke 3.445 1+2 registered for IM Hamburg
39 Simon Cochrane 3.420 3+1
40 Mike Phillips 3.390 2+2 registered for IM Switzerland
41 Jan van Berkel 3.390 3+0 registered for IM Switzerland

James Cunnama, Boris Stein and Bart Aernouts still need an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. James and Bart are registered for IM Hamburg, and “just finishing” will secure a points slot for them. However, Boris has been injured shortly before IM France, he is not going to race before the end of July. Therefore I am including James and Bart but not Boris in my “points ranks”. This means that currently Jan van Berkel occupies the last direct qualifying slot, but it’s safe to assume that a number of athletes are going to score and that more than 3.390 points will be needed. There are a few more uncertainties, for example it is unclear if Cam Brown or Marino Vanhoenacker are even interested in a Kona slot (they might decline) and whether Terenzo Bozzone is going to accept his slot (he is still recovering from being hit by a truck while training on the bike).

There is a theoretical chance for the cutoff to occur as high as 3.890 points, but that requires a large number of pretty improbably race outcomes. As shown in the graph above I therefore consider everyone down to Cam Brown (at 3.840 points) to be safe, and every athlete who is able to pass Cam is going to receive in a slot unless some really weird things occur.

The next table lists what each of the athletes who are on one of the start lists and who can still get to at least 3.400 points will need, even if that is probably not going to be enough for securing a slot (i.e. even if one can pass that mark, there are likely others that leap further ahead). In brackets I have added the (result) that will be needed to be quite certain of a slot (regardless of where others may finish, “n/a” meaning that even with a win a slot is not assured).

Athlete Points Races Registered for Needs
Philipp Koutny 3.325 2+2 IM Switzerland 6th (4th)
Jonathan Shearon 3.290 2+2 IM Hamburg 5th (3rd)
Ty Butterfield 3.165 2+1 70.3 Santa Rosa 6th (2nd)
Jeremy Jurkiewicz 3.100 3+1 IM Switzerland 4th (3rd)
Ronnie Schildknecht 3.005 2+2 IM Switzerland 5th (3rd)
Tim Don 2.900 0+2 IM Hamburg 6th (4th)
Christian Kramer 2.675 2+2 IM Hamburg 4th (3rd)
Jesper Svensson 2.620 1+2 IM Hamburg 4th (3rd)
David Plese 2.455 3+1 IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Mark Bowstead 2.425 2+1 IM Canada 3rd (2nd)
Miguel Blanchard Tinto 2.340 3+1 IM Hamburg, IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Johann Ackermann 1.905 2+2 IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Sven Riederer 1.845 1+2 IM Switzerland 2nd (win)
Horst Reichel 1.445 1+2 IM Hamburg win (n/a)

As for the women, there are a lot more athletes registered for the remaining July races, you can check start lists and seedings on TriRating.com.

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