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Roth Royalty: Laura Siddall

This is an excerpt from my “2018 Roth Rating Report”. You can download your copy here.

LauraPointsLauraBib

When Laura raced her first Challenge Roth in 2016, her fourth-place finish was a big step forward: It was her best performance so far and she was starting to beat more established athletes. One year later she was one of the most sought-after interview partners before the race – and her second-place finish to Daniela Ryf didn’t change that at all.

This season has been going well for her, she has already won two IM-distance races in New Zealand and Australia. Can she claim the top spot on the podium this year? It would be the next big step forward for the world-traveling Brit.

Laura Bike Denmark

To put herself in a position to win in Roth, Laura would need to step it up across the board. Last year she had to work hard on the bike after a slower-than-expected 58-minute swim, and even a minute can make a difference for the dynamics on the bike. She should be among the strongest on the bike, and she has the experience to put out her biggest effort when it will make a difference. This year she’s raced the same races as last year, and her marathon times have been three to four minutes quicker. This indicates she might be able to run her first sub-3 marathon, and even after a good swim and bike that’s likely what she’ll need to challenge Lucy Charles. But in almost every race scenario, Laura is going to be at least in contention for a podium finish.

(Photo: Laura on the bike at Challenge Denmark. The image is property of James Mitchell. Prior permission must be sought before usage, please contact james@jamesmitchell.eu.)


Thorsten: You’ve raced a lot of races last year, then you seemed a bit flat in Kona. Are you adjusting your schedule for this year to be fresher for October?

Laura: I don’t plan my seasons around Kona. Yes, it’s a big race but it’s never my main focus. Last year and this year were the same: If I qualified during the races I wanted to do (Ironman New Zealand and Ironman Australia) then that would be great and I’d go to Europe to race Challenge Family over the summer. If I hadn’t qualified after those races, then I wouldn’t have started chasing points just to get to Kona. I still plan to race a lot of races in Europe with the Challenge Family. There are some great races that I really love and get a lot of joy and happiness from them.

With regards to Kona last year, there are of course many lessons I took away, and have implemented and will be implementing in my races and continual development this year as an athlete and a professional.

T: How does the female race in Roth develop? Based on the data there might be a larger group of WPro on the bike, and how much do the faster age groupers influence the race?

L: I don’t envision there being a single group chasing – even if it looks like that on paper, it rarely spreads like this, even if on paper like this. My job is to respond to scenarios that occur in the race and focus on my performance.

I can only speak for myself in talking about a clean race, and that I will be riding a clean and honest race. I can’t comment on the other women and how they choose to race. I do think though that race organisers and event teams need to put consideration into the start times to ensure that there is minimal impact on the Pro women, from either the Pro men or the Age Group men. Challenge Roth have been great at listening to the feedback of the women and Pros and have altered the start times [there will be a 12-minute gap this year], which I hope is a good step to give the women a clean and fair race. I’m sure there will still be some cross-over with it being a two lap course.

T: You’ve improved from fourth to second in Roth. How do you see your chances this year for a further improvement?

L: When you put yourself on the start line, you put yourself in the frame of winning. Roth is a special race to me and one that I would of course love to win. I can’t control the other women on the start line though or what performance they have on the day. All I can do is to focus on my performance and getting the very best out of myself.

My goal for Roth 2018 is to put in a better performance than I did in 2017. My goal is to continue to develop and improve and build on my past races as I move forward. Therefore I’ll be focusing on executing the very best swim-bike-run I can on the day, and aiming for a personal better performance than last year. This is what I can control. This is where my focus always is.

T: Your current run PR is from Roth last year (3:05). Do you think you can attack a sub-3 hour marathon in Roth this year?

L: My running has been going well, and improving all the time. However you just never know on race day what will happen. To be competitive against the best women in the world, you really need to be running around 3 hours off a strong bike, so that’s always the goal when I’m training and racing to be moving closer to that mark. Whether I do it in Roth, or this year, or next year or never, who knows, but that’s always the driver to get better and better. I am aiming to go in fresher to Roth this year and see what my legs can do.

T: How are you dealing with all the events before race day? Are you someone who gains power and strength from all the interactions before race day or will you need some extra “quiet time”?

L: I have ZERO pressure! None. Challenge Roth is a special race for me, as I have grown to love the event over the past few years, and all the team that’s involved. It’s an amazing atmosphere and that’s why it’s the best race in the world. I love this race, it is a celebration, but the result won’t define me. I am stoked at already winning two IM races this season, so I can go and race with a fearless attitude and soak in the atmosphere and occasion of the special event that is ROTH.

As a professional, I know that I have commitments when I’m at the race but at Roth with the energy and vibe it’s always such a positive. I draw a lot of energy from these interactions and it feeds me leading into the race. Of course, I do balance these with ensuring I also have enough “me time”, but the Challenge Roth team also respect this.

Roth Royalty: James Cunnama

This is an excerpt from my “2018 Roth Rating Report”. You can download your copy here.

JamesPointsJamesBib

In any race he starts (even all the way up to Kona), James has to be considered among the favorites for the win, and if he’s on form, he’s likely the biggest competitor for Sebi in this year’s Roth race. He’s always been a good swimmer and should start the bike about two minutes ahead of Sebi. There are very few athletes that can match James on the bike – when he won IM Hamburg in 2017 no one was able to stick with him when he gently increased his pace at the start of the second bike loop. With Sebi, Cam Wurf and possibly Andreas Dreitz there are a few in the Roth field that might test his bike strength, but Roth is a good race to take some more risks. I also expect James to post one of the fastest run splits of the day, his 2:40 from Hamburg was the second fastest of 2017 (only Patrick Lange was quicker in his Kona win) and he was almost able to run down Sebi at the end of the marathon in Kona.

James Bike Samorin

However, James’ 2018 form is a bit of an unknown. At the end of 2017 he had a crash that resulted in fractured ribs; it has taken him some time to bounce back and he wasn’t able to race his home race, IM South Africa. In early May he won a South African half-distance triathlon, but so far hasn’t done any European races. He also still needs to validate his Kona slot by finishing an Ironman, but we’ve seen last year that he’s not worried about racing in August.

In short, if he’s on the start line, expect him to do well and finish at least on the podium.

(Photo: James on the bike at Challenge Samorin. The image is property of James Mitchell. Prior permission must be sought before usage, please contact james@jamesmitchell.eu.)

Roth Royalty: Yvonne Van Vlerken

This is an excerpt from my “2018 Roth Rating Report”. You can download your copy here.

YvonnePointsYvonneBib

Yvonne is obviously the most experienced athlete in the female Pro field, and she has shown some great performances in Roth. In the last two years her Roth races didn’t quite go as planned but she still finished in third. A podium finish is likely the “base goal” for the crowd favorite, but she’s not the type of athlete to not go for the win.

While she’s probably the strongest woman on the bike, she’s always been a bit slower in the swim. That’s unlikely to have changed, but she’s strong enough to make up lost time in the early parts of the bike. The exception is of course going to be Lucy Charles, it’ll be interesting to see how much Yvonne is going to reduce the gap of likely nine minutes after the swim on the bike.

Yvonne Run Gran CanariaThe last two years Yvonne suffered on the run in Roth (3:11 in ’16, 3:20 in ’17). If she wants to catch Lucy, she’ll probably have to run close to 3 hours – the last time she has done that was in Barcelona 2015 when she ran with Kaisa for most of the marathon. The only time Yvonne has been off the podium in Roth, she finished in 8:59, and she has been consistently finishing around 8:50. Anyone who wants to beat her on her favorite course has to be prepared to go faster than that.

(Photo: Yvonne on the run at Challenge Gran Canaria. The image is property of James Mitchell. Prior permission must be sought before usage, please contact james@jamesmitchell.eu.)


Thorsten: You’ve had a lot of success at Challenge Roth, but the last two years you didn’t have the races you were looking for. How do you feel going into this year’s race?

Yvonne: Yes, Challenge Roth has always been my favorite and will continue to be so. Last year I had a serious crash at Challenge Heilbronn just before Roth and with lingering injuries I didn’t feel good before the race. Two years ago I’ve had some stomach issues. It’s about time for the next good result here in Roth! Being on the start line is very special for me: Challenge Roth was my first long-distance race and it’s going to be the last one for Yvonne Van Vlerken. I’m going to get married in July, two weeks after Roth, so I won’t be racing as Van Vlerken anymore!

T: Last season you and Per spent the Northern Hemisphere winter in Thailand, Australia and New Zealand. How did this year’s winter and spring look like?

Y: This year we didn’t travel far, we were for a few weeks on Lanzarote (my favorite island!), two not very nice weeks on Mallorca and the rest of the time at home. It wasn’t quite as luxurious, in addition I was sick for a few weeks starting with Mallorca. Unfortunately a trip to Boulder didn’t fit our schedule, but Siri [Yvonne is coached by Siri Lindley] and I are in regular contact via the Internet or telephone. But even if my prep wasn’t quite a smooth as in other years, the first races felt really good.

I’ve entered IM Lanzarote just before the list closed, but I’ve had some problems with the salt water during the swim. Usually the women Pro start is pretty relaxed with just 10 to 20 athletes, but Lanzarote is a mass start and I’ve swallowed much more water than in other races. I really like the island and the bike course, but I’m not going to race there again.

T: What are our goals for this year’s Roth?

Y: To be honest I have always been chasing records and sub-9 finishes, but recently fast times seem to be more important than exact distances, I just have to mention Challenge Rome and Ironman Texas. So the value of fast times is diminished and this isn’t good for our sport. My goal this year is to have a good race for myself, and to have as close to perfect day as possible – then the result will take care of itself.

I know I still have a lot in me, and even if I’ve already been doing our wonderful sport for quite some time, I’m still improving. I recover quicker, can race more often and am still getting faster on the swim and run. The “young girls” shouldn’t underestimate me, I now have the full package of performance, experience, know-how, passion and love for our sport. And I still feel pretty young myself!
The field in Roth is always one of the strongest and it won’t be easy to get onto the podium – but that’s where I would like to finish.

T: How do you see the female race this year? Lucy is likely going off the front with her strong swim, but you could be in a group of fast cyclists chasing her.

Y: Lucy can swim, bike and run well, but she will have to run a really fast marathon which she hasn’t done yet. She’ll be among a lot of Pro men and that’s a huge advantage for her. That means that it would be great if Kaisa, Laura, Daniela and I can work together to close the gap to Lucy. But first we’ll have to catch my countrywoman Sarissa de Vries who swims very well and can bike as fast as I – she might be second or third at the start of the run. Maybe she can even be the “Dutch Dark Horse” as I was in 2007.
But currently my run is my strongest leg, so I wouldn’t mind when the race is decided on the run. When I was able to run away from Kaisa in Barcelona 2015, that was a combination of experience and good tactics, but since then she has made huge improvements. Now we also have the same coach, and while it would be nice I probably won’t be able to run from her now. Laura and I love to run together, but she’s also getting better and better, just as Daniela who is another athlete I really like very much!
In order to have a chance I think we will have to legally work together. I’d love to be able to catch Lucy, but it’s hard to predict if it’s going to be possible for any one of us, a lot will depend on how each of us feels on race day – but it’s 100% going to be an exciting race!

T: What’s your view on the new run course?

Y: I have a lot of respect for the team of Challenge Roth for listening to their participants – and I say thank you for creating the perfect combination of the old and new run courses. I love to run along the canal, 90% of my run training is on crushed gravel which I think helps to avoid injuries. Running the “mountain” towards Büchenbach only once will be enough this year – even if running around the small lake was awesome, having to get there twice last year was once too often! I’m really looking forward to the marathon this year!

T: What’s your plan for the rest of the season after Roth?

Y: After Roth I’ll be taking a break – two weeks after Roth we’ll have our marriage and I have butterflies looking forward to spend the rest of my life with Per. IM Maastricht will be five weeks after Roth, another big highlight to have an Ironman in my home country. The week after will be the great Challenge Turku, I much enjoyed it in 2016 and 17. Next up is a smaller race on my daily training routes, the Transvorarlberg, before Challenge Almere where I hope to win for the third time and enjoy another well organized “home race”. The last long-distance race for this year will be Ironman Barcelona, I just like this race. October and November Per and I will be on “honeymoon” at Thanypura in Thailand, we’re just looking for a few races in Asia. And maybe I’ll close 2018 at Challenge Daytona.
Even if have enough points for a Kona slot, I won’t be racing there. That chapter is closed, and for the last years of my career I’ll be doing races I enjoy racing, that matter to sponsors and that won’t require as much travel.

Ironman Germany 2018 (July 8th) – Seedings

Update June 25th: I’ve crossed out a few withdrawals, most notably Laura Philipp.

IMGermanyLogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:20:50 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:15:31
2006 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:13:40 Andrea Steinbecher (GER) 09:16:17
2007 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:09:15 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:04:11
2008 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:59:55 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:51:24
2009 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:59:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:58:08
2010 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:05:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 09:04:27
2011 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:13:50 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:12:13
2012 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:03:31 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:52:33
2013 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:58 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 08:56:01
2014 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 07:55:14 Corinne Abraham (GBR) 08:52:40
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 07:49:48 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:51:00
2016 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 07:52:43 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 09:01:17
2017 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 07:41:42 Sarah Crowley (AUS) 08:47:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

For the full results from last year, please check out my post on “IM Germany 2017 – Analyzing Results“. Please note that the 2017 race had a shortened bike course and the times are therefore not eligible for course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:50:11 04:02:22 02:45:09 07:41:42
2 Andi Boecherer GER 00:47:21 04:04:56 02:49:48 07:46:07
3 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:47:15 04:17:41 02:40:58 07:50:16

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:56:17 04:40:32 03:05:12 08:47:58
2 Lucy Charles GBR 00:48:29 04:45:08 03:13:18 08:51:50
3 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 00:59:25 04:49:48 03:04:47 08:59:55

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:49:48 Jan Frodeno 2015-07-05
Swim overall 00:42:17 Jan Sibbersen 2004-07-12
Bike overall 04:08:43 Jan Frodeno 2015-07-05
Run overall 02:42:08 Will Clarke 2016-07-03
Total female 08:51:00 Daniela Ryf 2015-07-05
Swim female 00:45:04 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-08
Bike female 04:44:25 Natascha Badmann 2014-07-06
Run female 02:57:13 Kristin Moeller 2013-07-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Germany is 15:15.

Race Adjustments for IM Germany

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 06:40 01:17 07:25 -04:44 21 06:40 01:17 07:25 -04:44
2006 14:02 n/a n/a n/a 21 10:21 01:17 07:25 -04:44
2007 27:36 02:16 16:42 06:14 35 16:06 01:47 12:03 00:45
2008 30:17 04:53 10:36 06:21 21 of 28 19:39 02:49 11:34 02:37
2009 22:50 03:30 15:52 00:10 19 of 25 20:17 02:59 12:39 02:00
2010 11:33 01:20 05:55 00:52 30 18:50 02:39 11:18 01:47
2011 10:37 01:54 06:10 00:20 41 17:39 02:32 10:27 01:32
2012 12:24 04:20 05:29 01:27 37 17:00 02:47 09:44 01:31
2013 18:03 02:45 10:25 03:40 69 17:07 02:47 09:49 01:48
2014 14:11 02:25 14:57 01:01 39 of 56 16:49 02:44 10:23 01:42
2015 05:18 00:00 08:30 -03:44 32 of 44 15:47 02:28 10:12 01:10
2016 12:04 -01:31 11:26 05:06 44 of 61 15:28 02:06 10:19 01:31
2017 18:40 -00:05 19:31 02:42 49 of 68 15:15 01:55 11:05 01:37

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Germany is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Race Coverage and Estimated Time Plan

The race will be broadcast live on German television (Hessen 3, their website and the critical parts on the ARD program as well) with Sebastian Kienle as the expert commentator and by Ironman on their “Ironman Now” page (a hosted show, probably with Michael Lovato, Greg Welch and Dede Griesbauer).

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start   06:30
Female Pro Start   06:32
Age Group Start  

06:40 to 07:00

First Male in T1 00:44:38 07:14
First Female in T1 00:49:50 07:21
First Male in T2 05:02:08 11:32
First Female in T2 05:36:15 12:08
Male Winner 07:47:51 14:17
Female Winner 08:34:05 15:06

Frankfurt is on Central European Summer Time, 2 hours behind UTC. Here are conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST), race starts at 2:30 pm
  • -1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30 am
  • -6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 0:30 am
  • -9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30 pm on Saturday evening

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 29% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 07:49:51 08:08:38 00:44:40 04:14:27 05:04:08 02:45:43 60% +19% -22% (9) 3
2 3 Andi Boecherer GER 07:51:18 08:12:34 00:45:17 04:11:32 05:01:49 02:49:29 56% +43% -2% (15) 6
3 2 Patrick Lange GER 07:51:35 07:57:26 00:45:17 04:18:03 05:08:21 02:43:14 100% +0% -0% (2) 1
4 4 Patrik Nilsson SWE 07:54:57 08:11:15 00:45:36 04:22:06 05:12:42 02:42:15 47% +37% -16% (9) 4
5 7 Andreas Raelert GER 08:06:12 08:35:21 00:47:14 04:21:54 05:14:08 02:52:04 18% +8% -74% (22) (69)
6 6 Nick Kastelein AUS 08:07:15 08:29:30 00:45:58 04:24:43 05:15:41 02:51:34 67% +0% -33% (4) 44
7 45 Joe Skipper * GBR 08:09:19 08:25:41 00:51:12 04:23:20 05:19:32 02:49:47 62% +13% -25% (20) 28
8 8 Michael Weiss * AUT 08:10:55 08:30:19 00:52:50 04:19:11 05:17:01 02:53:54 83% +3% -14% (21) 48
9 5 Josh Amberger AUS 08:11:50 08:30:42 00:44:38 04:21:45 05:11:23 03:00:27 70% +19% -11% (5) 52
10 40 Cameron Wurf * AUS 08:14:03 08:29:21 00:48:30 04:12:43 05:06:14 03:07:49 60% +31% -9% (11) 43
11 18 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:14:16 08:44:19 00:46:43 04:21:57 05:13:39 03:00:37 25% +22% -53% (16) 89
12 34 David Plese * SLO 08:17:20 08:30:14 00:51:13 04:28:59 05:25:12 02:52:08 82% +6% -12% (25) 47
13 22 Marc Duelsen GER 08:18:53 08:34:05 00:49:14 04:30:36 05:24:50 02:54:03 89% +0% -11% (11) 65
14 16 Mark Bowstead NZL 08:19:09 08:36:26 00:46:44 04:26:18 05:18:01 03:01:08 79% +0% -21% (5) 72
15 11 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:21:29 08:45:05 00:46:01 04:33:35 05:24:36 02:56:53 59% +0% -41% (5) 91
16 27 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:23:10 08:47:47 00:48:36 04:26:13 05:19:48 03:03:22 56% +0% -44% (8) 102
17 17 Christian Brader GER 08:30:44 08:46:50 00:52:38 04:37:39 05:35:18 02:55:26 80% +2% -18% (40) 98
18 20 Gregory Close USA 08:34:17 09:02:36 00:55:13 04:34:22 05:34:34 02:59:43 20% +35% -45% (11) 163
19 28 Markus Liebelt * GER 08:40:31 09:20:09 00:53:12 04:31:56 05:30:08 03:10:23 23% +0% -77% (3) (213)
20 29 Andrey Lyatskiy * RUS 08:40:44 08:55:49 00:49:15 04:44:08 05:38:24 03:02:20 94% +2% -4% (33) 137
21 37 Simon Schwarz * GER 08:42:50 09:11:34 00:51:54 04:42:14 05:39:08 03:03:42 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (194)
22 10 Andreas Niedrig * GER 08:45:16 09:10:05 00:46:13 04:29:44 05:20:57 03:24:19 44% +30% -26% (14) (186)
23 19 Alexander Chikin RUS 08:45:16 09:10:35 00:53:13 04:38:55 05:37:07 03:08:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (190)
24 14 Lucas Amirault FRA 08:49:16 09:10:51 00:49:49 04:41:04 05:35:53 03:13:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (193)
25 46 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:49:38 09:05:10 00:46:13 04:48:32 05:39:45 03:09:53 41% +6% -53% (30) 169
26 38 Pavel Simko * SVK 08:50:40 09:10:50 00:49:32 04:41:06 05:35:39 03:15:01 80% +0% -20% (4) 192
27 44 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:52:53 09:14:14 00:58:29 04:41:44 05:45:13 03:07:40 83% +6% -11% (73) 199
28 32 Urs Mueller SUI 08:52:54 09:16:04 00:51:08 04:37:01 05:33:09 03:19:45 51% +22% -27% (7) 204
29 30 Philipp Mock GER 08:54:10 09:23:31 00:55:44 04:30:55 05:31:39 03:22:31 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (228)
30 31 Wouter Monchy BEL 08:57:08 09:16:37 00:49:11 04:50:03 05:44:14 03:12:54 61% +24% -15% (6) 206
31 9 Frederic Limousin FRA 09:02:07 09:27:44 00:51:42 04:46:10 05:42:52 03:19:15 90% +10% -0% (6) 235
32 23 Olivier Esser BEL 09:08:45 09:27:53 00:52:25 04:51:53 05:49:18 03:19:27 75% +0% -25% (4) 236
33 15 David Berthou FRA 09:11:26 09:41:45 00:52:47 04:51:59 05:49:46 03:21:40 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (261)
34 35 Lukas Polan * CZE 09:20:09 09:54:18 01:00:11 04:58:16 06:03:27 03:16:42 41% +16% -43% (16) 274
35 21 Zsombor Deak * ROM 09:36:17 10:00:22 00:56:59 05:10:23 06:12:22 03:23:55 71% +0% -29% (4) 280
36 39 Dominique Wymmersch Gallego ESP 09:53:04 10:25:40 00:56:58 05:00:11 06:02:09 03:50:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (291)
37 25 Michal Ivanco * SVK 09:53:47 10:16:14 01:17:48 05:04:58 06:27:46 03:26:01 100% +0% -0% (3) 287
38 26 Aleksander Kochetkov * LTU 10:36:57 11:11:58 01:06:35 05:30:22 06:41:57 03:55:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (303)
39 33 Marek Nemcik * SVK 10:56:06 11:56:30 01:10:17 05:22:56 06:38:14 04:17:52 32% +24% -44% (45) 307
  24 Felix Hentschel GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  36 Imanol Sagarzazu ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
  43 Damien Collins AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 29% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 102 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:34:05 08:40:07 00:49:50 04:41:25 05:36:15 02:57:50 91% +0% -9% (12) 1
2 101 Sarah Crowley AUS 08:52:03 09:17:13 00:53:04 04:48:41 05:46:45 03:05:18 35% +65% -0% (6) 9
3 107 Eva Wutti * AUT 09:03:32 09:21:24 00:55:50 04:59:50 06:00:40 03:02:52 90% +0% -10% (10) 19
4 124 Sara Svensk * SWE 09:06:57 09:35:42 00:56:21 04:55:20 05:56:40 03:10:17 20% +46% -34% (3) (44)
5 116 Mareen Hufe * GER 09:09:25 09:26:10 00:57:08 04:51:54 05:54:03 03:15:22 84% +10% -6% (26) 30
6 105 Katja Konschak GER 09:15:16 09:44:21 00:52:00 05:10:52 06:07:52 03:07:24 45% +25% -30% (22) 60
7 119 Rachel McBride CAN 09:15:51 09:37:42 00:51:03 04:53:16 05:49:20 03:26:31 100% +0% -0% (4) 51
8 113 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:19:01 09:38:53 00:57:13 04:59:30 06:01:43 03:17:18 70% +7% -23% (16) 53
9 109 Marta Bernardi ITA 09:19:23 09:44:25 00:55:59 05:07:27 06:08:26 03:10:57 100% +0% -0% (2) (61)
10 123 Celine Schaerer * SUI 09:22:06 09:37:12 00:49:30 05:08:45 06:03:14 03:18:52 80% +0% -20% (11) 48
11 118 Bruna Mahn BRA 09:22:40 09:54:36 00:54:59 05:10:09 06:10:08 03:12:32 30% +70% -0% (5) 83
12 111 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:25:04 09:45:45 00:53:36 05:15:46 06:14:23 03:10:41 66% +28% -5% (17) 63
13 110 Ewa Bugdol POL 09:27:51 09:53:26 00:52:22 05:11:38 06:09:00 03:18:51 56% +0% -44% (4) (78)
14 114 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:30:49 09:49:51 01:08:09 05:04:26 06:17:35 03:13:14 81% +19% -0% (18) 74
15 120 Skye Moench USA 09:48:19 10:38:25 00:57:51 05:07:15 06:10:06 03:38:13 39% +0% -61% (2) (144)
16 112 Steph Corker * CAN 09:53:10 10:20:18 00:55:13 05:24:02 06:24:14 03:28:56 70% +30% -0% (4) 123
17 117 Kristin Lie NOR 10:01:30 10:26:29 01:08:48 05:13:39 06:27:26 03:34:04 93% +1% -6% (16) 132
18 115 Helena Herrero Gomez * ESP 10:07:34 10:39:45 00:58:12 05:38:27 06:41:39 03:25:55 34% +0% -66% (11) 145
  103 Laura Philipp * GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  104 Anne Haug GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  106 Sarah True USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days. Most of them are on the start list as a backup for Austria, but at least Eva Wutti is considered to do a “double IM” in Klagenfurt and Frankfurt to secure enough KPR points for a July slot.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

This year’s IM Frankfurt will be a big “German showdown”. It’s hard to pick a front-runner as everyone has a lot going for them: Andi has always been racing well in Frankfurt (a number of close second places when Sebi Kienle was winning the race), Frodo holds the course record and Patrick is the current Kona champion. But all of them have “little question marks” as well: Andi has been injured and was forced to skip Kona, Frodo had a bad race in Kona, and Patrick didn’t do too well in Frankfurt last year when he was still dealing with the aftermath of an injury.

  • Andi Boecherer: 32% (2-1)
  • Jan Frodeno: 30% (2-1)
  • Patrick Lange: 28% (3-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 10% (9-1)

Female Race Participants

The situation is much more clear on the female side: Even though Sarah Crowley won the race last year, Daniela has been pretty much unbeatable on the Ironman distance. Her only “bad race” was a DNF in Frankfurt 2o16 …

  • Daniela Ryf: 67% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 21% (4-1)
  • Eva Wutti: 6% (17-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 3% (35-1)
  • Sara Svensk: 2% (60-1)

Kona Qualifying

IM Germany is the last of the Regional Championships, and a lot of athletes are looking for a good result and a large number of KPR points to secure their Kona slots. As there are Automatic Qualifier slots for the winners, everyone in the field has a chance to get a Kona slot in Frankfurt, but most of them are probably calculating with a more realistic result.

Male Athletes

Here’s what athletes in the male field are looking for in order to get a Kona slot:

  • Just finish: Jan Frodeno, Patrick Lange, Patrik Nilsson
  • 12th (385): Michael Weiss
  • 6th (1.670): Joe Skipper (but likely to race Roth)
  • 5th (2.090): Tyler Butterfield, Philip Koutny
  • 4th (2.455): David Plese, Andi Boecherer, Mark Bowstead
  • 3rd (2.890): Marc Duelsen, Nick Kastelein, Balazs Csoke

Female Athletes

Here’s what the females are looking for in order to get a Kona slot:

  • Just finish: Daniela Ryf, Sarah Crowley
  • 8th (1.070): Sara Svensk
  • 7th (1.335): Rachel McBride, Sarah True, Laura Philipp
  • 5th (2.090): Marta Bernardi
  • 4th (2.455): Dimity-Lee Duke, Bruna Mahn, Saleta Castro, Anne Haug, Katharina Grohmann
  • 3rd (2.890): Katja Koschak, Eva Wutti (but probably also racing IM Austria)

Kona Qualifying Situation Mid June 2018 – Men

With only seven Ironman races remaining before the first cutoff at the end of July, it’s a good time to have a close look at the current qualifying situation. This post looks at the situation for the men, yesterday’s post analyzes the women’s standings.

Current Situation

Let’s start with an overview of the ranking in mid-June (click on the graph for a higher-res version):

Based on the projected cutoff around 3.500 points the graph shows six categories:

  • Automatic Qualifiers: Kona winners of the last five years and the winners of the Regional Championships receive an automatic slot. Past Kona winners have to validate their slot with an Ironman finish. (Both Jan Frodeno and Patrick Lange still have to do this.) The AQs do not count for the “points slots”.
  • Safe: These athletes are more than 300 points above the projected cutoff and can be considered safe for a July slot. There are currently 19 male athletes in this category.
  • Safe not validated: These athletes have enough points (usually from a good Kona result the previous year) but still need an Ironman finish to be eligible for a slot. There are another five athletes in this category.
  • Bubble: These athletes (currently twelve) are close the cutoff and might be fine for a slot – but there could still be a number of athletes that can overtake them and they can still fall out of the slots.
  • Close: These athletes will have to race again and improve their total in order to have a chance for a slot – another 13 athletes.
  • Close, not validated: There are three athletes in this category, but Ben Kanute and Sam Appleton are unlikely to race an Ironman this season.

There is a total of 40 “points slots” for the men at the end of July. If you add up the number of athletes in the different categories (leaving aside the AQs) you already end up with more than 50, so you can see that the race is very tight.

Upcoming Races

Ironman has released entry lists and start lists for all the remaining Ironman races up to the end of July. As always, they are easily accessible through my Race Posts showing the entries with their current KPR points and the seedings for races with a closed start list.

The following table shows an overview of the remaining Ironman races and the currently registered athletes currently without a secure Kona slot. (Of course, most races have some more high-profile athletes on the start list, and athletes can still register for most of these races.) I’ve also listed a few “Additional Athletes” who aren’t shown in the graph above but who still have a chance for a slot:

Race Racing for a Slot Additional Athletes
France Andrej Vistica (2.960)
TJ Tollakson (2.575)
Romain Guillaume (2.435)
Austria David McNamee (7.870)
Andy Potts (5.050)
Michael Weiss (3.435)
Thiago Vinhal (3.180)
Miquel Blanchard Tinto (2.325)
Frankfurt (P-4000) Patrick Lange (AQ)
Jan Frodeno (AQ)
Patrik Nilsson (3.825)
Tyler Butterfield (1.830)
Philipp Koutny (1.730)
David Plese (1.530)
Andi Böcherer (1.390)
UK Will Clarke (2.905)
Whistler Joe Gambles (2.885) Sam Long (1.575)
Switzerland Jan van Berkel (3.390)
Hamburg Miquel Blanchard Tinto (2.325)
Horst Reichel (1.445)

A few of the athletes haven’t announced their plans yet (James Cunnama, Bart Aernouts) or have been forced to change them (Boris Stein who planned to race IM France but had a bike crash a few days out and won’t be able to race).

As you can see, the number of athletes that aren’t on my graph but still have a chance to qualify is quite large. There are also a few more 70.3s on the calendar that may not have many points but can still make a difference when things are getting close, so it’s hard to tell at this point who will actually qualify. Some athletes might also decide to look for a race in August to secure one of the additional ten male slots that are even harder to predict.

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