Skip to content

Kona 2015 “Heatmaps”

In my Kona Rating Report I’m using a “star system” to show athletes chances to place well overall and how strong they are in each of the disciplines on a scale of zero to five symbols. The number of symbols is based on the ratings, the more symbols the better.

Here is compact way to look at the data, giving you a chance to view the whole field in one “heatmap”. In these graphs, a darker red corresponds to more stars, white is equal to no stars.

Female Pros

Women Pro Heatwave

(Click on the image for full-resolution.)

The best athletes in each leg and overall are:

  • Swim: Jodie Swallow, Meredith Kessler, Amanda Stevens, Haley Chura
  • Bike: Caroline Steffen, Rachel Joyce, Daniela Ryf, Angela Naeth
  • Run: Mirinda Carfrae
  • Overall: Mirinda Carfrae, Rachel Joyce, Daniela Ryf

Male Pros

Men Pro Heatmap

(Click on the image for full-resolution.)

The best athletes in each leg and overall are:

  • Swim: Jan Frodeno, Andy Potts, Timothy O’Donnell, Andi Boecherer, Dylan McNeice, Matt Chrabot
  • Bike: Andi Boecherer, Marino Vanhoenacker, Sebastian Kienle, Maik Twelsiek
  • Run: Jan Frodeno, Brent McMahon, Jeff Symonds, Bart Aernouts, Ivan Rana, Matt Hanson
  • Overall: Jan Frodeno, Frederik Van Lierde, Sebastian Kienle

Kona 2015 Odds – Female Pros

RinnyFinish2014

Female Winners

There is a similar story to men’s battle between Sebi and Frodo on the women’s side: Last year’s champion Mirinda Carfrae had her typical quiet year, but she is always ready to race in October. Based on her previous Kona races, she is still the statistical favorite. But Rinny will be challenged by Frankfurt winner and 70.3 Champion Daniela Ryf who has continued her amazing development from last year. Rachel Joyce is relatively close to these two but hasn’t had a great season so far. The low numbers of the Long Shots show how dominant the chances of the main contenders are.

Favorites

  • Mirinda Carfrae 38% (2-1)
  • Daniela Ryf 22% (3-1)

In the Mix

  • Rachel Joyce 17% (5-1)

Long Shots

  • Caroline Steffen 4% (27-1)
  • Eva Wutti 3% (29-1)
  • Leanda Cave 2% (52-1)

Female TOP 3

For the women, there are good chances for the same podium as last year: Rinny, Rachel and Daniela are safe podium bets. But repeat podiums in Kona are very race – there have only been two ever: 2002 to 2004 saw Natascha, Lori Bowden and Nina Kraft in different order on the podium. Therefore we can expect at least one other athlete on this year’s podium. The likeliest candidates are Kona rookies Eva Wutti and Angela Naeth, and the more experienced Meredith Kessler, Leanda Cave, Caroline Steffen or Jodie Swallow.

Safe Bets

  • Mirinda Carfrae 46% (1-1)
  • Rachel Joyce 46% (1-1)
  • Daniela Ryf 44% (1-1)

Knocking on the Door

  • Eva Wutti 25% (3-1)
  • Meredith Kessler 18% (4-1)
  • Leanda Cave 17% (5-1)
  • Caroline Steffen 16% (5-1)
  • Jodie Swallow 15% (6-1)
  • Angela Naeth 14% (6-1)

Outside Chances

  • Julia Gajer 11% (8-1)
  • Haley Chura 9% (10-1)
  • Liz Blatchford 3% (29-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis 2% (39-1)

(Photo: Rinny close the finish line in 2014. Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Odds – Male Pros

Male Winners

FrodoSebi703

This year will be quite interesting as it is very hard to pick a clear favorite based purely on numbers. For Kona the previous year’s winner will always be in the mix. Defending champion Sebastian Kienle has shown some good races this year, so there is every reason to expect him close to the front again. But he is overshadowed by last year’s third, Jan Frodeno. Jan had a dominant race in Frankfurt, improving Sebi’s course record from last year and also winning the 70.3 Champs.

Based on the data the next athlete to consider is Marino Vanhoenacker. He still has to show that he can have one more great race in Kona. Frederik Van Lierde, the 2013 Champion, will be in the mix as well. Nils Frommhold seems to be ready to take another step forward after his 6th place last year and winning Challenge Roth in the summer.

Favorites

  • Jan Frodeno 22% (3-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle 19% (4-1)

In the Mix

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 16% (5-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 12% (7-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

  • Brent McMahon 4% (26-1)
  • Ivan Rana 3% (28-1)
  • Andi Boecherer 3% (36-1)
  • Andy Potts 2% (50-1)

Male TOP 3

Sebi and Frodo are also my safe bets for a podium, but the third spot is pretty open. If Marino has a good race he has a good shot at the podium, but Frederik will make it hard. With Nils Frommhold and Andi Böcherer there are two more German podium contenders – we may easily end up with a German podium! Andy Potts is the big American hope for a podium spot.

Safe Bets

  • Sebastian Kienle 51% (1-1)
  • Jan Frodeno 44% (2-1)

Knocking on the Door

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 34% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 29% (3-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 28% (3-1)
  • Andi Böcherer 27% (3-1)
  • Andy Potts 17% (5-1)

Outside Chances

  • Clemente Alonso 13% (7-1)
  • Brent MacMahon 13% (7-1)
  • Ivan Rana 8% (12-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 8% (12-1)
  • Bas Diederen 6% (17-1)
  • Andreas Raelert 6% (17-1)
  • Jordan Rapp 4% (24-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell 4% (27-1)
  • Ben Hoffmann 3% (31-3)

(Photo: Sebi and Frodo after the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See, Credit: Joern Pollex/Getty Images for Ironman)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Profile: Matt Hanson (USA)

MattPointsMattBib

Career Highlights

  • Multiple IM Winner (Chattanogga, Texas)

2015 Season

  • 5th IM Wisconsin 8:50:16
  • 1st IM Chattanooga 8:12:32
  • 1st IM Texas 8:07:03
  • 7th 70.3 Racine

Matt was the “surprise” winner of IM Texas this year. He jokes that “some people are convinced that I didn’t win IMTX, but everyone else lost it”. But as with all “overnight successes”, this result has been a long time in the making and certainly no fluke: Matt has raced Kona before as an agregrouper (with a 2:53 marathon!) and had already won IM Chattanooga before. After his win in Texas he decided to focus on being a professional triathlete – in the summer he did not renew his contract as an Assistant Professor of Exercise Science and Athletic Training at Buena Vista University in Iowa.

MattBike

Matt has prepared a long time for Texas: “I spent 8 months focused on winning that race so taking the tape was an amazing way to show how the hard work paid off.” But his long term focus has always been on Kona: “Kona is where all of my major goals in the sport revolve around. Everything else is just preparing to put myself in a position to enter that race well rested and in good form. Volume is a bit higher over the summer than it has been in previous years, but this has always been part of the plan regardless of what happened in Texas. The biggest thing I am doing now is paying more attention to recovery.”

Even though Matt has raced Kona before, this will be his first time as a Pro. It’s hard to predict if he can make the first bike group with his slower swim, but maybe he’s even better off if he can ride his own race and not be forced to react to the pace changes in the front group. That way he can save his legs for the run and he may end up having the fastest run split. He may not be the top US finisher this year but if his development continues in the same methodical fashion he may turn out to be the next US Kona winner.

(Photo: Matt on his bike at IM Texas, supplied by Matt)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Profile: Meredith Kessler (USA)

MeredithPointsMeredithBib

Career Highlights

  • Multiple IM Winner (Canada, St. George, Coeur d’Alene, New Zealand, Arizona)
  • More than 50 AG and Pro IM finishes

2015 Season

  • 1st IM Arizona 8:50:41
  • 1st IM New Zealand 9:05:45
  • 1st 70.3 Auckland, Raleigh, Mont Tremblant, Vineman
  • DNF 70.3 Champs

Meredith is one of the most prolific and consistent Ironman athletes – with the exception of Kona. In her four Pro starts, she finished 7th (2013), 26th (2010) and DNF’d twice (2012 & 14). Last year’s DNF was caused by vomiting on the bike – she eventually had to be pulled off the run course.

She quickly bounced back, managed to finally win IM Arizona in November (after being 2nd both previous years before) and also IM New Zealand in March – for the fourth time in a row. This more or less secured her Kona slot, so she and coach Matt Dixon dialed back her IM schedule. She was still successfully racing a lot of 70.3s: “The highlight of our season was likely the four victory stretch from Ironman Raleigh 70.3 in early June through Vineman in the middle of July. It is rewarding to be able to stay consistent through four closely spaced races in this day and age of better competition in the women’s triathlon field.”

MeredithTrack

But Meredith’s focus was clearly on Kona and racing well: “While everyone is racing the best athletes in the world in Kona, I know for me personally, the main limiter is the conditions and the elements. If I were a Rinny or Sebastian (or many others of course!), my goals would be quite different. They KNOW they can conquer the conditions, they thrive in them and have prevailed in victory in Kona. It is a much different scenario for me since I have yet to perform in Kona and am still searching for the right pieces to the Kona puzzle. Athletes do want to be properly prepared for this beast – and that may mean coming out to the island much earlier than you would for a normal season A-race IM.”

In any race other than Kona, Meredith would be a podium candidate: Her strong swim and bike allow her to go with anyone, probably even with a Daniela Ryf. If she has any weakness against a top-class field, it’s her run: Her best marathon run was this year’s 3:07 from New Zealand – while she has been steadily getting faster, she will need a run close to three hours for a spot on the podium. She hasn’t shown that she’ll be able to do that this year, and her Kona struggles in the past years don’t increase the likelihood. But Meredith is trying a more focused approach this year, and I look forward to see the results on race day.

(Photo: Meredith during a track session. Supplied by Meredith)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Select your currency
EUR Euro
USD United States (US) dollar

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close