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Ironman Mallorca 2015 (September 26th) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2014 Tim Don (GBR) 08:34:02 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 09:24:17

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tim Don GBR 00:45:25 04:51:21 02:52:07 08:34:02
2 Miguel Fidalgo ESP 00:45:36 04:58:45 02:49:01 08:38:08
3 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:45:31 04:51:06 02:59:26 08:40:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eimear Mullan IRL 00:55:13 05:13:01 03:10:26 09:24:17
2 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:50:10 05:11:15 03:19:40 09:27:09
3 Astrid Stienen GER 00:55:14 05:12:17 03:17:18 09:31:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:02 Tim Don 2014-09-27
Swim overall 00:44:46 Manuel Kueng 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:48:20 Manuel Kueng 2014-09-27
Run overall 02:47:30 Miquel Blanchart Tinto 2014-09-27
Total female 09:24:17 Eimear Mullan 2014-09-27
Swim female 00:49:52 Mette Pettersen Moe 2014-09-27
Bike female 05:04:52 Nina Kuhn 2014-09-27
Run female 03:10:26 Eimear Mullan 2014-09-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mallorca is 02:48.

Race Adjustments for IM Mallorca

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 02:48 02:31 00:41 03:09 32 02:48 02:31 00:41 03:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mallorca is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Timo Bracht GER 08:21:12 08:22:35 00:47:11 04:37:39 02:51:21 7
2 1 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:28:22 08:31:46 00:50:23 04:45:20 02:47:39 25
3 38 James Cunnama ZAF 08:30:30 08:40:40 00:47:38 04:41:01 02:56:51 52
4 7 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:36:52 08:48:03 00:46:17 04:40:37 03:04:58 82
5 8 Johann Ackermann GER 08:38:22 08:47:51 00:47:04 04:41:22 03:04:56 (80)
6 36 David Plese SLO 08:39:40 08:39:59 00:50:53 04:45:20 02:58:27 48
7 3 Horst Reichel GER 08:39:51 08:59:48 00:47:00 04:46:18 03:01:34 125
8 31 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:41:10 09:08:03 00:46:05 04:44:31 03:05:33 (157)
9 5 Miguel Fidalgo ESP 08:41:14 08:52:11 00:46:05 04:58:25 02:51:44 (97)
10 41 Michael Ruenz GER 08:44:00 09:03:04 00:51:02 04:51:30 02:56:29 139
11 6 Herve Faure FRA 08:44:47 08:50:38 00:49:15 04:47:49 03:02:43 (90)
12 21 Chris McDonald AUS 08:45:27 08:45:32 00:51:13 04:45:44 03:03:29 68
13 40 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:48:19 09:01:07 00:51:48 04:51:29 03:00:02 129
14 19 Andreas Linden SWE 08:48:27 09:01:52 00:56:43 04:32:33 03:14:11 (133)
15 32 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:48:51 09:12:39 00:45:35 04:57:20 03:00:55 (182)
16 4 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:49:11 09:08:04 00:46:44 05:01:02 02:56:25 (157)
17 34 Christian Brader GER 08:52:05 08:54:25 00:54:21 04:54:48 02:57:57 107
18 29 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:55:10 08:56:30 00:46:05 04:53:36 03:10:30 114
19 24 Ouilleres Gwenael FRA 08:56:01 09:09:38 00:49:37 04:54:04 03:07:20 (167)
20 37 Flo Kriegl AUT 09:03:11 09:06:47 00:53:11 04:57:06 03:07:54 (154)
21 10 Herve Banti MCO 09:10:04 09:20:14 00:49:52 04:52:49 03:22:23 (214)
22 14 Martin Droell GER 09:12:12 09:26:14 00:56:01 05:01:08 03:10:03 (237)
23 20 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:12:55 09:21:06 00:51:04 05:06:47 03:10:05 219
24 28 Rene Vallant AUT 09:22:00 09:41:44 00:53:53 04:52:42 03:30:26 (300)
25 22 Urs Mueller SWI 09:24:30 09:33:14 00:54:15 05:02:41 03:22:34 (267)
26 25 Alfred Rahm GER 09:37:56 09:59:49 01:01:44 05:09:46 03:21:26 (361)
27 15 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 09:39:59 09:42:40 01:00:18 05:21:48 03:12:53 303
28 35 Lukas Polan CZE 09:48:19 10:07:42 01:01:00 05:12:26 03:29:53 393
29 16 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:51:23 10:14:07 01:05:06 05:13:29 03:27:48 411
30 13 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:55:17 10:10:41 00:45:17 05:23:00 03:42:00 398
31 23 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:04:38 10:26:12 00:57:00 05:08:08 03:54:30 (449)
32 17 Teemu Kyllonen FIN 10:12:15 10:27:09 00:59:51 05:18:40 03:48:43 453
33 30 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:36:01 11:18:02 01:05:42 05:38:12 03:47:07 (479)
9 Francisco Alvarez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Thomas Bosch GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Antonio Cardona ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Frederic Limousin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Andreas Thissen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
39 Michael Van Cleven BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 51 Anja Beranek GER 09:19:32 09:19:01 00:49:23 05:03:31 03:21:39 12
2 69 Diana Riesler GER 09:22:33 09:32:41 00:55:25 05:04:30 03:17:39 30
3 52 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:31:09 09:58:47 00:56:10 05:18:15 03:11:44 86
4 63 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:35:46 09:40:55 00:52:46 05:14:37 03:23:23 49
5 60 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:39:32 09:49:46 01:05:07 05:14:42 03:14:42 67
6 70 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:45:00 09:52:11 00:55:05 05:09:42 03:35:13 74
7 65 Tineke Van den Berg NED 09:46:46 09:55:37 01:02:42 05:14:55 03:24:09 82
8 62 Kamila Polak AUT 09:46:56 09:58:33 00:56:29 05:22:55 03:22:32 (85)
9 53 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:48:33 10:05:29 00:51:52 05:32:29 03:19:12 105
10 61 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:54:28 09:58:38 00:58:39 05:25:14 03:25:35 85
11 58 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:56:58 10:02:37 01:05:30 05:31:45 03:14:43 96
12 56 Eleanor Haresign GBR 09:59:51 10:11:05 00:57:05 05:26:42 03:31:04 115
13 68 Verena Walter GER 10:01:23 10:06:41 00:57:19 05:26:29 03:32:35 109
14 55 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:04:01 10:09:35 01:10:03 05:27:55 03:21:03 113
15 66 Nicole Woysch GER 10:20:52 10:47:51 00:56:30 05:32:28 03:46:54 (175)
16 54 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:21:20 10:36:26 01:01:31 05:43:05 03:31:43 167
17 57 Corina Hengartner SWI 10:31:36 10:47:39 01:00:45 05:31:14 03:54:37 (175)
59 Emma Kate Lidbury GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
64 Alexandra Tondeur BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Nina Kuhn GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Timo Bracht is the clear favorite for the race. Last year he was the pre-race favorite as well, but he was tired after racing a lot in the summer. This year, he seems to be more focused on the race:

  • Timo Bracht: 45% (1-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 15% (6-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 14% (6-1)
  • James Cunnama: 10% (9-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 6% (15-1)
  • David Plese: 3% (33-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race is harder to predict – mainly because I believe that there will be a few changes to the start list. Anja Beranek has just won IM Wales and might not start, Diana Riesler is getting ready for Kona. If these two are not racing, the favorite would be defending champion Eimear Mullan, but she has struggled with injuries during the summer.

  • Anja Beranek: 58% (1-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 25% (3-1)
  • Eimear Mullan: 10% (9-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 3% (29-1)
  • Daniela Saemmler: 2% (50-1)

Challenge Weymouth 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This was the second time for Challenge Weymouth, but as the run was way short in 2014, this is the first year with decent data on the course. Based on the data the course is pretty slow – comparable to South Africa and maybe a touch faster than Ironman UK.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:51:37 04:48:47 02:57:06 08:42:32 -01:22
2 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 00:50:08 04:52:49 02:58:06 08:45:51 -19:40
3 Sergio Marques POR 00:57:34 04:58:34 02:45:19 08:46:51 -08:13
4 David Naesvik SWE 00:57:42 04:45:09 03:03:35 08:51:38 -06:16
5 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:57:44 04:45:04 03:05:27 08:53:04 -03:15
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE     02:59:41 09:01:39 02:30
7 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:50:06 04:58:18 03:17:07 09:10:32 23:11
8 Aleksei Brylev RUS 00:57:22 05:02:00 03:46:29 09:50:59 08:50
  Chris Fischer DEN 00:57:35 04:45:00   DNF  
  Arnaud Savio FRA 01:15:06 07:11:35   DNF  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:11:08 05:14:41 03:10:21 09:41:31 -01:31
2 Kate Comber GBR 00:57:29 05:25:53 03:23:45 09:52:21 n/a
3 Vicky Gill GBR 01:07:01 05:19:01 03:22:19 09:53:26 -1:07:32
4 Eva Potuckova CZE 00:57:26 05:29:57 03:34:01 10:06:52 03:11
5 Yvette Grice GBR 00:57:48 05:38:09 03:28:36 10:09:49 05:22
6 Alena Stevens SVK 01:05:31 05:44:59 03:24:19 10:20:10 06:07
7 Vanessa Pereira POR 01:07:04 05:42:14 03:31:48 10:27:57 -03:01
8 Joanna Carritt GBR 01:09:25 05:46:53 03:39:35 10:40:50 26:42
  Alice Hector GBR 00:57:38     DNF  

Ironman Wales 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Ironman Wales is known as the toughest Ironman course on the calendar (course rating -27:46)- and this year was no exception even if there was decent weather (adjustment of -33:55). The swim was again quite slow: Harry Wiltshire was first out of the water but he was seven minutes slower than the course that he and Daniel Halksworth hold. Same thing on the female side with Anja Beranek leading after the swim but missing her course record by seven minutes. The bike had an adjustment of -27:33 which is also typical for Wales, even if we saw a new bike course records by Markus Thomschke (first ever sub-5h bike in Wales!) and Anja Beranek (narrowly missing 5:30). 

Male Race Results

After a disappointing race in the 70.3 Champs in Zell am See, Jesse Thomas decided to go ahead with his first full IM distance race. He quickly took the lead on the bike and was joined by Markus Thomschke – both stuck together for most of the ride until Markus pulled away a bit into T2. Jesse then had a very solid 2:52 marathon (second best of the day) on the rolling course in Tenby to win his debut Ironman race:

WalesJesse

Second place went to Andrej Vistica with the fastest marathon of the day (just one second quicker than Jesse). Markus Thomschke held on for third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jesse Thomas USA 00:54:20 05:03:28 02:52:19 08:57:33 n/a US$ 5000
2 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:57:00 05:05:46 02:52:18 09:03:09 -12:01 US$ 2750
3 Markus Thomschke GER 00:57:01 04:57:14 03:12:54 09:14:52 -16:16 US$ 1750
4 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 01:02:38 05:03:21 03:08:18 09:22:15 -10:06 US$ 1250
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:51:55 05:19:21 03:12:47 09:31:33 -01:30 US$ 1000
6 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:57:01 05:25:31 03:04:54 09:35:47 -18:47 US$ 750
7 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:07 05:22:46 03:04:56 09:45:26 07:29  
8 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:56:54 05:37:04 03:03:17 09:47:28 -09:07  
9 Oliver Simon GBR 00:51:57 05:29:17 03:30:56 10:01:06 -00:59  
10 Peter Seidel GER 01:00:52 05:28:39 03:29:06 10:07:55 35:52  
11 James Brown GBR 01:06:23 05:29:55 03:28:27 10:13:14 08:00  
12 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:05:50 05:58:30 03:10:57 10:26:36 20:05  
13 Tohara Kaito JPN 00:57:25 06:05:18 03:26:35 10:41:11 52:45  
14 Craig Twigg GBR 00:56:57 05:24:26 04:40:10 11:11:28 52:17  
15 Christian Funk GER 01:26:24 06:38:01 04:07:57 12:28:16 50:04  
  Mark Cotter CAN 01:05:39 06:00:43   DNF  
  Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:16     DNF  

Female Race Results

There was never a doubt that Anja Beranek had come to Tenby to win her second Ironman race after Zürich 2013. Entering T2 she had built a lead of more than 30 minutes. She could afford to not push on the run as her lead never shrank. After her third place in the 70.3 Champs and her win in Wales Anja is almost assured a 2016 Kona slot!

WalesAnja

Behind Anja there were quite a few position changes and close racing for second and third. Tineke Van Berg held on to her second place on the run, while Katja Koschak advanced into third place, overtaking Tine Holst just a few k before the finish. After winning Powermac Zofingen just a week ago, Emma Pooley was never in a position to contend for the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Anja Beranek GER 00:54:26 05:30:15 03:23:16 09:56:31 00:01 US$ 5000
2 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:09:13 05:45:44 03:22:42 10:28:22 -01:28 US$ 2750
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:56:54 06:06:34 03:13:50 10:29:55 -10:47 US$ 1750
4 Tine Holst DEN 01:11:49 05:45:03 03:25:01 10:32:11 -08:36 US$ 1250
5 Emma Pooley GBR 01:17:11 05:45:08 03:22:38 10:38:41 20:39 US$ 1000
6 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 01:03:57 06:04:04 03:23:42 10:43:45 10:11 US$ 750
7 Verena Walter GER 01:05:51 06:04:15 03:27:59 10:49:01 10:30  
  Eleanor Haresign GBR 01:04:05 05:50:53   DNF  
  Carol Anne Bridge GBR 00:54:27     DNF  

Photos by Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images for Ironman

Challenge Almere 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions this year were faster than about 10 minutes compared to last year, especially on the bike. While there was wind and rain in 2013 and 2014, the weather was calm and sunny this year.

Course Rating

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 05:20 00:19 01:43 03:49 16 05:20 00:19 01:43 03:49
2014 07:16 02:43 04:54 00:36 22 06:18 01:31 03:18 02:12
2015 18:32 00:26 14:28 04:44 21 10:23 01:09 07:02 03:03

Male Race Results

Markus Fachbach successfully defended his title from last year by posting a time that was 16 minutes quicker and a course record for the Challenge years.

Almere_Fachbach 

He was joined on the podium by Dutch athletes Mark Oude Benin and Erik-Simon Strijk.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Markus Fachbach GER 00:48:56 04:25:18 02:54:01 08:12:24 -09:47
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:48:47 04:25:32 02:59:29 08:18:14 -18:07
3 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:51:37 04:26:45 02:59:14 08:22:29 -14:17
4 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:55:14 04:32:31 02:54:02 08:25:39 -17:21
5 Gerrit Schellens BEL 00:53:54 04:44:17 02:49:38 08:32:57 02:07
6 Diederik Scheltinga NED 00:51:36 04:34:49 03:03:30 08:35:40 -1:22:44
7 Jacob Veenstra NED 00:56:15 04:29:48 03:06:16 08:37:08 -37:39
8 Jens Kaiser GER 00:55:10 04:34:28 03:03:51 08:38:11 -05:23
9 Thijs Koelen NED 00:54:12 04:34:37 03:07:53 08:41:26 -06:09
10 Olivier Godart LUX 00:54:09 04:45:27 03:00:39 08:45:10 n/a
11 Tjardo Visser NED 00:51:32 04:54:34 03:02:23 08:52:39 n/a
12 AJ Baucco USA 00:51:33 04:48:14 03:08:41 08:52:59 11:48
13 Eddy Lamers NED 00:51:39 04:35:50 03:19:41 08:53:30 -35:49
14 Dirk Baelus BEL 00:55:20 04:49:35 03:08:19 08:58:41 n/a
15 Jens Groenbek DEN 00:55:06 04:45:04 03:16:30 09:00:45 23:03
16 Guido Kwakkel NED 00:54:06 04:44:32 03:18:52 09:01:48 n/a
17 Thomas Naasz NED 00:55:23 04:54:49 03:14:52 09:10:15 09:44
18 Marijn De Jonge NED 00:54:13 04:51:54 03:21:38 09:13:31 n/a
19 Juanma Cardenas ESP 01:08:07 05:01:44 03:06:30 09:21:57 n/a
20 Ricardo Scholten NED 01:01:19 04:58:38 03:15:46 09:22:39 n/a
21 Ben Van Oeveren NED 01:02:53 04:56:48 03:20:38 09:26:43 n/a
22 Henk-Jan Dolsma NED 00:51:42 04:52:42 03:43:01 09:32:15 n/a
23 Attila Szabo HUN 00:48:52 05:10:31 03:26:57 09:33:24 n/a
24 Tjerk Tjallema NED 00:51:33 05:15:39 03:21:38 09:33:46 n/a
  Roeland Smits NED 00:54:09 04:26:55   DNF  
  Bob Martens NED 00:54:30 05:00:59   DNF  
  Peter Res NED 01:03:08 04:53:53   DNF  
  Maarten Peters NED 00:55:17 05:05:02   DNF  
  Remy Vasseur NED 00:54:01     DNF  
  Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR 01:10:17     DNF  

Female Race Results

The women’s race saw a lot of position changes on the bike and run, and Kathrin Walther had to fight until the last kilometer for the win:

AlmereWalther

Irene Kinnegim had the fastest marathon of the day and came within a minute to Kathrin but ran out of real estate at the end. Camille Deligny lead on the bike and early in the run, she finished third in her Ironman-distance debut.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Kathrin Walther GER 00:59:12 04:56:48 03:23:23 09:26:11 -28:48
2 Irene Kinnegim NED 01:04:48 05:04:35 03:11:02 09:27:27 -26:45
3 Camille Deligny FRA 01:01:54 04:55:03 03:27:31 09:29:52 n/a
4 Beate Goertz GER 01:04:27 04:59:11 03:28:15 09:37:07 09:17
5 Julia Bohn GER 01:01:58 05:10:01 03:18:41 09:37:41 -17:48
6 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:10:34 05:05:03 03:18:41 09:39:34 -11:25
7 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:14:36 05:06:52 03:24:20 09:50:55 -02:32
8 Grada Boschker NED 01:05:40 05:05:20 03:41:58 10:00:38 n/a
9 Celia Kuch GER 01:02:23 05:13:41 03:38:24 10:01:13 09:44
10 Lena Holmgren SWE 01:04:13 05:24:37 03:30:19 10:05:40 24:40
11 Linda Van Bemmel NED 00:57:04 05:13:04 03:50:23 10:07:14 n/a
12 Nina Bakker NED 01:13:33 05:48:49 03:22:45 10:32:14 n/a
  Brooke Brown CAN 01:02:27 05:07:00   DNF  

Photos by Stephen Pond/Getty Images for Challenge Triathlon

Kona 2015 Resource

Here is a list of resources for Kona 2015:

If you think you know who is going to do well in Kona, submit your picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win a BIG prize!

Here are some more posts from my friends and Triathlon Media:

I’ll add to this list as soon as my friends and I release more information closer to the race!

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