My focus of the first big weekend of Triathlon racing was on IM New Zealand, even if it happened in the middle of the night for me. (The other races in Abu Dhabi and ‘Escape from Alcatraz’ sounded great as well, but I’m mainly interested in IM-distance racing.)

Conditions on race day were typical for New Zealand, the adjustment of 3:30 was in line with the newest course rating of 4:07.

Male Race Results

The big question for the men’s race was if Cameron Brown could hold on to his 10-time winning streak of full Ironman races in New Zealand. (The only times he was beaten was when the race had to be shortened.) He delivered a solid performance, even if he was more than ten minutes slower than his predicted time. The title stayed in New Zealand – with Ironman rookie Bevan Docherty winning with a  course-record performance. (Not only did he better Cam’s overall record but also Torbjorn Sindballe’s bike record.) He’s joining the ranks of recent IM-rookie-winners – Andy Starykowicz in Florida, Nils Frommhold in Arizona and Ivan Rana in Cozumel. Seems that the top IM rankings will change a bit this year!

Second place was captured by Marko Albert with a smart race that allowed him to post an even better run split than Cam Brown. (I almost feel that Cam was holding a bit back for Melbourne when it was clear that he wouldn’t be able to improve on his third place. Something for a more detailed analysis!)

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Bevan Docherty	NZL	00:45:44	04:35:06	02:49:46	08:15:35	n/a
2	Marko Albert	EST	00:45:34	04:38:34	02:56:56	08:25:30	08:40:06
3	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:50:09	04:41:52	02:57:16	08:34:28	08:22:57
4	Courtney Ogden	AUS	00:50:15	04:44:14	02:58:24	08:38:53	08:40:39
5	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:47:40	04:48:51	03:03:55	08:46:05	09:01:36
6	Carl Read	NZL	00:53:14	04:53:14	02:56:50	08:48:16	08:59:14
7	Keegan Williams	NZL	00:51:46	04:48:40	03:04:50	08:50:22	08:54:22
8	Ben Cotter	CAN	00:54:16	04:48:49	03:13:40	09:02:47	09:12:34
9	Chris Sanson	NZL	00:54:08	04:58:27	03:08:59	09:07:01	n/a
10	Simon Cochrane	NZL	00:51:35	05:01:02	03:18:54	09:17:12	09:07:11
11	Scott Defilippis	USA	00:51:53	04:58:56	03:20:25	09:18:34	09:04:13
12	Ernst Moser	AUT	00:54:45	05:00:47	03:20:21	09:20:22	09:04:52
13	Jacson Kluts	NZL	00:58:14	05:04:07	03:20:28	09:29:04	n/a
14	Kodo Hiramatsu	JPN	00:51:56	05:20:59	03:20:23	09:39:11	10:05:34
15	Shanon Stallard	NZL	00:54:12	05:18:06	03:39:31	09:58:21	09:05:04
16	Daiki Masuda	JPN	00:54:51	05:08:39	04:11:15	10:20:54	09:55:42
17	David Bowden	NZL	00:54:54	05:17:25	05:00:18	11:20:18	n/a

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, Meredith Kessler “defended” her 2012 title. (She said herself that her win in the shortened 2012 had a little asterisk to it, and now she captured the title for real.) Second place Gina Crawford was able to claw a few minutes back on the run, but Meredith was leading the race by eight minutes after the bike. Candice Hammond posted the fastest run split of the day and placed third.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:47:37	05:04:44	03:19:24	09:17:10	09:26:19
2	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:51:44	05:08:17	03:14:54	09:20:54	09:24:11
3	Candice Hammond	NZL	01:02:37	05:15:00	03:13:20	09:35:52	09:36:32
4	Anna Ross	NZL	00:58:21	05:19:02	03:15:47	09:38:59	n/a
5	Janine Sax	NZL	01:00:35	05:22:29	03:34:48	10:03:21	n/a
6	Melanie Burke	NZL	01:09:58	05:22:34	03:30:03	10:09:02	n/a
7	Megumi Shigaki	JPN	00:58:24	05:44:47	03:47:54	10:40:01	10:52:49

At the end of last year I extended my ratings to the individual disciplines, so you get a better picture of where each athlete’s strengths and weaknesses are. This also allows me to get a more detailed look at how the race might unfold. I think that the graphs give you good picture of what a “typical” race between these athletes is going to look like – and I hope that you will also be able to quickly spot if an athlete is doing much better (or worse) than what could be expected. Of course, there is still a lot of room left for speculation: Is athlete A going too fast on the bike (so he will blow up on the run – think Marino in Kona)? Athlete B is a great runner, but can she can afford to give up that much time on the bike (for example, Rinnie)?

A (little) qualifier: Of course, this is just based on “pure” numbers. This does not take “race dynamics” into account. I’m pretty sure that there will be little groups during the swim and bike and that the athletes in these groups will finish closer together than the pure numbers indicate. Also, there is no (statistically valid) way that I can predict the performance of the new IM athletes – therefore they are not included in the graphs. Especially the performance of Bevan Docherty is offering a lot of room for speculation.

Men’s Race

With the above qualifiers, here’s how I think the men’s race is probably going to unfold:

The graph shows how much behind the race leader each athlete is going to be. (A lot of inspiration come from Russel Cox’s post-race posts showing how a race did unfold using the IMLive data, e.g. for Arizona 2012 or Cozumel 2012.)

Here are a few highlights:

• Marko Albert will probably lead after the swim. Terenzo and Balazs Csoke won’t be too far behind, maybe they will form a group to properly distance Cam Brown who will be 2-3 minutes behind. All the other Pros will be around 10 minutes back.
• The field will take about 60k on the bike to sort things out. Cam will probably take the lead by then – but again race dynamics might come into play and Terenzo and others may try to stay with him.
• Of the top athletes after the bike Balazs has the slowest run rating (3:27, and therefore will probably loose a few spots). But his run results have been pretty mixed and his last run was a 3:07 in Austria), so he may be able to surprise. Other than that, the run could turn out to be pretty boring – the graph shows that only the race for 3rd place may be close.

Women’s Race

Here’s the corresponding graph for the women’s race in New Zealand:

The women’s field is much smaller, but it will probably be a bit more exciting towards the end:

• Meredith Kessler will lead after the swim and is probably going to extend her lead over Gina Crawford on the bike.
• Gina is the best runner in the field, based on the numbers she will take the lead just before the 30k mark. However, with a projected winning margin of just around two minutes anything can happen on race day.
• Carrie Lester and Candice Hammond won’t be too far behind, so if Gina and/or Meredith run into problems, they’ll be ready. Even with the smaller women’s field, I still have four athletes within 10 minutes!

Update: I goofed up importing the participants, so I missed a few athletes. The most notable athlete is Meredith Kessler, who clearly changes the women’s race. Sorry, MBK!

(Photo provided by Jay Prasuhn)

TOP 3 from 2011

Last year, the race couldn’t occur as planned: On Saturday it was impossible to have a race, so the race haas to be moved to Sunday and shortened to a 70.3. This race was won by Marino Vanhoenacker and Meredith Kessler.

Here are the results from the last “full” Ironman in New Zealand from 2011:

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:50:21	04:43:04	02:52:09	08:31:07
2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	00:47:14	04:51:36	02:57:52	08:41:54
3	Mathias Hecht	SWI	00:47:19	04:48:22	03:04:19	08:45:36

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Samantha Warriner	NZL	00:50:30	05:10:39	03:20:52	09:28:24
2	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	00:52:43	05:31:24	03:01:06	09:31:33
3	Joanna Lawn	NZL	00:52:43	05:22:10	03:10:54	09:31:53

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:18:05	Cameron Brown	2009-03-07
Swim	overall	00:45:02	Kieran Doe	2008-03-01
Bike	overall	04:35:11	Torbjorn Sindballe	2007-03-03
Run	overall	02:43:10	Cameron Brown	2009-03-07
Total	female	09:14:35	Joanna Lawn	2010-03-06
Swim	female	00:46:30	Monica Byrn	2005-05-03
Bike	female	05:01:17	Emi Shiono	2008-03-01
Run	female	03:01:06	Mirinda Carfrae	2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 04:14.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year	Adjustment	# of Athletes	Rating
2005	n/a	4	n/a
2007	04:40	18	04:40
2008	05:54	31	05:17
2009	08:37	28	06:24
2010	06:44	17	06:29
2011	-04:43	20	04:14
2012	n/a	n/a	n/a

KPR points and Price Money

IM New Zealand has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 50k$. For the age groupers, there are 40 Kona slots available.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:22:15	08:26:14	9
2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:32:29	08:36:32	28
3	Marko Albert	EST	08:39:22	08:43:29	54
4	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:39:56	08:44:03	56
5	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:53:38	08:57:51	121
6	Kevin Taddonio	USA	08:55:08	08:59:22	133
7	Carl Read	NZL	08:58:29	09:02:45	151
8	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:00:51	09:05:08	164
9	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:03:28	09:07:46	180
10	Ernst Moser	AUT	09:04:07	09:08:25	183
11	Shanon Stallard	NZL	09:04:18	09:08:37	184
12	Simon Cochrane	NZL	09:06:25	09:10:45	200
13	Ben Cotter	CAN	09:11:48	09:16:10	226
14	James Bowstead	NZL	09:30:16	09:34:47	348
15	Daiki Masuda	JPN	09:54:52	09:59:35	486
16	Kodo Hiramatsu	JPN	10:04:44	10:09:31	532
17	Chris Sanson	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
18	Jacson Kluts	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
19	Bevan Docherty	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
20	David Bowden	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:23:24	09:27:52	16
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:25:32	09:30:01	18
3	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:30:36	09:35:07	30
4	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:35:45	09:40:18	41
5	Monica Dalidowicz	CAN	10:24:35	10:29:32	175
6	Megumi Shigaki	JPN	10:51:54	10:57:04	212
7	Anna Ross	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
8	Melanie Burke	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
9	Janine Sax	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his previous results, Cam Brown is the clear favorite, but the question “Is he to old to win another one?” always comes up for him in Taupo. For fun, here is a “different” photo of Brown, Cameron:

Cam’s biggest threats come from two countrymen Terenzo Bozzone (back from injury and a DNS in Auckland after smashing into a car door) and Bevan Docherty (moving up from ITU and starting in his first full Ironman):

• Cameron Brown: 62% (1-1)
• Terenzo Bozzone: 14% (6-1)
• Courtney Ogden: 8% (12-1)
• Marko Albert: 7% (13-1)
• Scott Defilippis: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

Now that I’m correctly including Meredith Kessler, the women’s race is much closer. Gina Crawford is still my top pick, her rating is a little bit better, and she is a previous winner in New Zealand. It’ll be an exciting run in Taupo:

• Gina Crawford: 44% (1-1)
• Meredith Kessler: 39% (2-1)
• Carrie Lester: 13% (7-1)
• Candice Hammond: 3% (29-1)