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IM Hawaii 2012 – Analyzing Kona Results

So much has been written about the Kona race that it’s hard to add value without an extended analysis. I’m in the middle of some interesting things, but wanted to get my regular results post out of the way first. I’ll post some more on Kona in the coming weeks .. too much great material not to spend some time with it first.

Race Conditions

I had to fiddle a bit around before I ended up with a reasonable assessment of the Kona conditions this year. After all is said and done, I have a pretty slow race adjustment of -10:20 (compared to about zero for the last few years) – the top results (both for the men and the women) were a lot slower than last year’s course record times.

Male Race Results

Pete Jacobs proved that he is a master in focusing on Kona – you almost have to disregard his non-Kona results for assessing him:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:51:28 04:35:15 02:48:05 08:18:37 08:47:22
2 Andreas Raelert GER 00:55:17 04:36:34 02:47:23 08:23:40 08:24:25
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:51:36 04:35:25 02:52:49 08:24:09 08:40:35
4 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:55:21 04:33:23 02:54:24 08:27:08 08:31:28
5 Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:51:39 04:35:53 02:56:49 08:28:33 08:34:18
6 Timo Bracht GER 00:53:45 04:37:16 02:55:36 08:30:57 08:30:15
7 Andy Potts USA 00:50:32 04:43:52 02:53:18 08:31:45 08:39:30
8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:51:37 04:44:15 02:53:59 08:33:28 08:54:57
9 David Dellow AUS 00:51:33 04:40:27 02:59:02 08:35:02 08:33:58
10 Dirk Bockel LUX 00:52:30 04:34:17 03:05:47 08:36:21 08:30:51
11 Bart Aernouts BEL 01:00:15 04:45:11 02:47:10 08:37:31 08:36:27
12 Craig Alexander AUS 00:51:35 04:44:44 03:00:29 08:40:49 08:22:08
13 Jordan Rapp USA 00:59:07 04:40:02 02:59:27 08:42:49 08:36:08
14 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:51:31 04:52:26 02:56:39 08:44:45 08:43:42
15 Axel Zeebroek BEL 00:51:41 04:42:09 03:07:00 08:45:12 09:01:14
16 Bruno Clerbout BEL 00:55:22 04:55:32 02:51:54 08:46:44 09:12:01
17 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:51:41 04:36:10 03:15:32 08:47:54 09:21:11
18 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:55:23 04:48:25 03:00:51 08:48:45 08:47:05
19 Ronnie Schildknecht SWI 00:55:23 04:38:57 03:11:22 08:50:18 08:37:32
20 Matthew Russell USA 01:08:01 04:46:35 02:51:23 08:50:21 09:13:02
21 Andi Boecherer GER 00:51:27 04:43:17 03:12:25 08:51:57 08:51:37
22 Rasmus Henning DNK 00:51:35 04:42:36 03:15:02 08:53:39 08:40:44
23 Tom Lowe GBR 01:01:43 04:50:24 02:57:00 08:53:42 08:40:33
24 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:51:29 04:39:09 03:20:32 08:54:58 08:53:22
25 Michael Lovato USA 00:55:22 04:51:59 03:03:13 08:56:04 09:01:55
26 Pedro Gomez POR 00:55:14 04:54:29 03:02:23 08:56:10 08:54:52
27 Trevor Delsaut FRA 01:01:32 04:54:19 02:56:08 08:56:41 09:09:51
28 Jozsef Major HUN 01:01:41 04:42:57 03:10:16 08:59:38 08:54:45
29 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:07:58 04:56:08 02:56:09 09:06:47 09:15:48
30 Victor Zyemtsev USA 00:55:16 04:56:52 03:22:34 09:19:23 08:48:09
31 Marko Albert EST 00:50:47 05:14:53 03:10:56 09:22:02 08:39:52
32 Michael Raelert GER 00:51:37 05:14:41 03:11:20 09:22:02 08:34:11
33 Greg Bennett USA 00:51:39 04:55:41 03:30:40 09:22:31 09:23:52
34 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:01:38 05:07:08 03:11:55 09:26:46 09:04:36
35 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:51:42 05:18:15 03:16:43 09:31:34 09:09:50
36 Christian Brader GER 01:04:32 05:09:43 03:16:53 09:35:22 09:09:19
37 Sergio Marques PRT 01:01:29 05:27:24 03:05:10 09:38:58 09:08:50
38 Trevor Wurtele CAN 01:00:03 04:59:09 03:41:11 09:45:07 09:14:51
39 Joshua Rix AUS 00:53:45 04:51:07 04:09:17 09:58:44 09:07:39

Female Race Results

On the female side, we had a pretty close race with Leanda Cave posted the strongest run of those contending for the win:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:56:03 05:12:06 03:03:13 09:15:54 09:38:45
2 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:57:37 05:06:49 03:08:08 09:16:58 09:28:44
3 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:00:06 05:12:18 03:05:04 09:21:41 09:18:45
4 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:10:36 05:07:57 02:59:26 09:22:45 09:34:43
5 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:56:06 05:08:06 03:10:30 09:22:57 09:26:18
6 Natascha Badmann SWI 01:06:21 05:06:07 03:09:18 09:26:25 09:40:56
7 Gina Crawford NZL 00:55:59 05:21:30 03:06:16 09:28:54 09:41:28
8 Linsey Corbin USA 01:02:53 05:16:55 03:07:55 09:32:18 09:36:35
9 Caitlin Snow USA 00:57:43 05:30:47 03:03:06 09:36:18 09:46:31
10 Amy Marsh USA 00:56:08 05:16:36 03:20:27 09:38:15 09:36:12
11 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:57:42 05:24:27 03:12:31 09:40:16 09:28:32
12 Michelle Vesterby DNK 00:57:44 05:16:57 03:22:47 09:42:22 09:42:12
13 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:57:44 05:26:53 03:14:05 09:43:43 09:34:58
14 Heather Wurtele CAN 01:00:04 05:16:58 03:22:28 09:44:04 09:42:31
15 Kelly Williamson USA 00:57:39 05:40:03 03:05:01 09:46:51 09:41:11
16 Tine Deckers BEL 01:06:18 05:19:25 03:18:43 09:48:38 09:43:14
17 Kristin Moeller GER 01:16:43 05:23:46 03:06:36 09:51:16 09:55:19
18 Amanda Stevens USA 00:55:09 05:27:07 03:24:50 09:51:59 09:57:34
19 Mareen Hufe GER 01:06:25 05:20:44 03:21:01 09:52:58 09:58:46
20 Simone Braendli SWI 00:57:40 05:29:07 03:21:38 09:53:24 10:10:46
21 Joanna Lawn NZL 01:00:09 05:21:27 03:28:41 09:55:11 09:43:16
22 Sara Gross CAN 01:00:07 05:46:05 03:13:00 10:03:54 10:06:31
23 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:06:20 05:29:53 03:23:29 10:04:51 10:05:06
24 Susan Dietrich GER 01:06:12 05:15:50 03:40:23 10:07:06 09:50:51
25 Sofie Goos BEL 01:02:52 05:49:06 03:18:01 10:14:39 09:51:56
26 Jessica Jacobs USA 01:17:30 05:17:52 04:57:43 11:38:39 09:51:46

Changes for the Kona Pro Ranking 2013 (KPR) – Updated

Almost by accident I noticed that WTC has already posted points and rules for the 2013 KPR. After a quick scan here are the changes I noticed:

  • The number of Kona slots for female PROs has been increased by 5 (28 by July, another 7 by August). The number of male PROs stays the same (40+10 = 50).
  • St. George is no longer on the schedule as a full distance race – this has been announced for a while.
  • New York has also been cancelled – this is a relatively recent development, it was announced a few days ago (i.e. early September).
  • Canada is also no longer on the list – the old venue has become a Challenge event, and the new event hasn’t been announced yet. I’m sure WTC has a few slots saved for a Canadian race.
  • The new Ironman Canada in Whistler has been designated a 2000 points race. (The 2012 race in Penticton was just a 1000 points race.)
  • IM Regensburg is also absent. The race site has not announced a new date yet, and there is lots of speculation in the German triathlon forums if and when the race is going to be held. The race has been officially canceled for 2013.
  • One more thing that is missing for now: A North American Championship race (i.e. a 4.000 points race with a similar status to Melbourne and Frankfurt).
  • The race in Mont Tremblant has been designated the new North American Championship race (i.e. it is now a 4.000 points race).
  • There are also two new races: Los Cabos (March) and Lake Tahoe (September, a qualifier for 2014), both are 2.000 points races.

Kona 2012 Predictions: Running Strengths

As usual, the race will be decided on the run. Therefore, I’ve done some extended analysis on the athlete’s run performance. It will be no surprise that the athletes with the best odds (Crowie and Rinnie) are also the best runners in the field. Here is a closer look at the data on athlete’s running strengths.

Run Rating

Looking at the individual run results, I’ve come up with some rating-like assessment of athlete’s run leg during an Ironman triathlon. The following tables list the main contenders and some other athletes that might be in a good position during the race.

I’m listing three different times:

  • The average run time (across all courses)
  • The average time for a Kona run (for all Kona races, empty if no Kona race so far)
  • The Run PR (regardless of the course it was run)

Men

By all numbers, Crowie is the strongest runner in the field. It remains to be seen if Macca’s Olympic training has given him an extra edge – I’m sure that he believes he can beat Crowie on the run.

Name Avg Run Kona Run Run PR
Craig Alexander 02:45:37 02:44:52 02:38:46
Paul Matthews 02:47:24 02:47:24
Andreas Raelert 02:47:47 02:47:46 02:40:52
Marino Vanhoenacker 02:51:59 02:56:17 02:39:24
Eneko Llanos 02:51:44 02:54:08 02:43:46
Sebastian Kienle 02:52:19 02:50:17
Timo Bracht 02:52:52 02:57:54 02:43:33
Dirk Bockel 02:53:57 02:54:16 02:51:56
David Dellow 02:54:38 02:45:05
Michael Raelert 02:54:40 02:54:40
Faris Al-Sultan 02:57:04 02:59:19 02:50:38
Jordan Rapp 02:57:17 02:46:55
Chris McCormack 02:50:02 02:47:21 02:42:02
Cameron Brown 02:52:09 02:58:40 02:41:17
Daniel Fontana 03:01:56 03:04:04 02:58:23
Andy Potts 02:57:08 02:59:17 02:52:15
Rasmus Henning 02:58:40 03:03:21 02:39:43
Joe Gambles 03:00:36 03:12:56 02:54:02
Pete Jacobs 02:57:02 02:50:08 02:41:06
Luke McKenzie 03:10:58 03:13:10 02:51:38

Women

On the women’s side, the numbers show that Rinnie is by far the best runner in the field. There are a few athletes that have a better potential than the average numbers indicate – Caroline Steffen, Bek Keat and Leanda Cave come to mind.

Name Avg Run Kona Run Run PR
Mirinda Carfrae 02:56:25 02:54:11 02:52:09
Mary Beth Ellis 03:09:59 03:13:48 03:01:29
Caroline Steffen 03:19:49 03:10:32 03:01:22
Rachel Joyce 03:18:57 03:14:55 02:59:53
Sonja Tajsich 03:08:28 03:09:56 02:55:43
Amy Marsh 03:21:51 03:25:25 03:11:19
Rebekah Keat 03:11:54 03:18:22 02:55:28
Linsey Corbin 03:10:25 03:13:57 03:02:27
Leanda Cave 03:23:06 03:24:11 02:58:51
Kelly Williamson 03:08:59 03:07:18 03:03:33
Tine Deckers 03:21:13 03:27:52 03:02:31
Meredith Kessler 03:19:55 03:28:11 03:10:14
Anja Beranek 03:20:44 03:18:06
Michelle Vesterby 03:21:17 03:20:16
Amanda Stevens 03:29:50 03:32:47 03:23:41

Playing with Numbers: Standing before Run

If I take the predicted finish time (based on the ratings and the Kona course rating) and the run times (I’m using the lower of the average and Kona Run times), I can speculate on the standing before the run. Of course, this is just playing with the numbers and does not take real race dynamics into account, but I think some speculation is still interesting.

Men

In the last years it was Chris Lieto who was the front-runner coming off the bike. I’m sure that a lot of athletes would like to take that spot this year – but I don’t really see Marino as the one leading off the bike, even if that’s what the numbers say. The next spots show a pretty large group of athletes including Andreas Raelert, Jordan Rapp, Dirk Bockel, Faris Al-Sultan and Crowie. If Timo Bracht ends up in that group as well, he’ll have a great chance for a podium finish. Maybe the presence of Jordan Rapp will help him make that front group this year. I would also think that Sebastian Kienle will use his bike strength to bike into the front group, and he may even be the athlete off the front. Also, Chris McCormack will do his utmost to be in that front group, maybe even a few minutes ahead of Crowie. Maybe he can round up a few other athletes (as he did when winning in 2010) who help him trying to break Crowie …

# Name Before Run
1 Marino Vanhoenacker 05:26:33
2 Andreas Raelert 05:29:15
3 Paul Matthews 05:29:24
4 Jordan Rapp 05:29:58
5 Dirk Bockel 05:30:02
6 Faris Al-Sultan 05:30:04
7 Daniel Fontana 05:30:05
8 Craig Alexander 05:30:51
9 Timo Bracht 05:30:56
10 Sebastian Kienle 05:31:23
11 David Dellow 05:31:24
12 Eneko Llanos 05:31:28
13 Michael Raelert 05:32:22
14 Joe Gambles 05:33:38
Rasmus Henning 05:34:31
Luke McKenzie 05:35:17
Andy Potts 05:35:20
Cameron Brown 05:36:50
Chris McCormack 05:41:11
Pete Jacobs 05:50:44

Women

On the women’s side, my numbers predict Amy Marsh leading off the bike. The real story, however, will be how far back Rinnie is going to be (I have her 13 minutes behind and not even in the TOP10 after the bike) and how far ahead of her Caroline Steffen is going to be. If it’s really going to be 8 minutes, Rinnie has to come up with one of her best runs in order to win again in Kona. Also, one of the other girls should be able to come up with a run a bit better than her Run Rating – maybe Mary Beth (being a bit more rested this year), Rachel or Leanda. I think that the race will be decided after the Energy Lab – maybe we’ll have a female version of Mark Allen running down Thomas Hellriegel from 1995 (he was 13 minutes after the bike).

# Name Before Run
1 Amy Marsh 06:04:44
2 Mary Beth Ellis 06:06:16
3 Rachel Joyce 06:06:26
4 Leanda Cave 06:07:46
5 Caroline Steffen 06:09:33
6 Tine Deckers 06:14:05
7 Rebekah Keat 06:14:58
8 Michelle Vesterby 06:16:14
9 Anja Beranek 06:16:19
10 Meredith Kessler 06:16:49
11 Amanda Stevens 06:17:32
12 Mirinda Carfrae 06:17:50
Sonja Tajsich 06:18:06
Linsey Corbin 06:18:34
Kelly Williamson 06:25:04

Run Comparison Charts

The following tables show the projected time after T2, the Run Rating and the total finishing time. In a row, a positive number means that the athlete has to be ahead of the other athlete, a negative number that he can afford to be behind.

Men

RunMatrix Men

As the strongest runner in the field, Crowie can afford to give up more than two minutes to every athlete and still expect to win the race. (For example, he can be 8 minutes behind Timo Bracht after T2 and they would be even at the end of the race.)

This table also shows that if Macca or Pete Jacobs make it into T2 close to the front group, they have a good chance for a podium spot or even winning the race.

Women

Run Matrix Women

Again, it is amazing to see how better Rinnie’s Run Rating is compared to the rest of the field. Based on the numbers, she can give up more than 15 minutes to everyone! As noted earlier, this number may be a bit misleading. The rest of the field is much closer together, and a lot will ride on who’s having a good day in the Kona heat.

Kona Strength: Who is racing well in Kona?

My ratings are a course-independent number, so they don’t give a complete picture of how an athlete is going to do in Kona. By comparing the relative performances in Kona and on other courses, I can determine athletes who are racing well in Kona and those that struggle on Hawaii. I’m expressing this number – the “Kona Strength” – as the time difference between the expected result (based on the athlete’s rating before the race) and the actual result (finishing time adjusted for the course and conditions on race day). For example, Caroline Steffen has a Kona Strength of 24:29 – this means that here results in Kona have been more than 24 minutes faster than her rating predicted. A Kona Strength of 0 shows that an athlete is not racing faster or slower in Kona than their rating predicts, and a negative number (e.g. -31:18 by Meredith Kessler) shows that the athlete has struggled in Kona. I’ve added a number to show how many Kona results the Kona Strength is based on – one race may always be a fluke (so maybe the one result by Meredith Kessler was not caused by the Kona heat and she’s going to do much better this year).

Good Kona Results

Here is a list of athletes that have races well in Kona:

  • Caroline Steffen 24:29 (2)
  • Pete Jacobs 22:34 (4)
  • Mirinda Carfrae 21:26 (3)
  • Caitlin Snow 18:07 (4)
  • Rachel Joyce 14:15 (3)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 10:09 (4)
  • Craig Alexander 09:05 (5)

Inferior Kona Results

The following athletes have struggled in their Kona races:

  • Meredith Kessler -31:18 (1)
  • Jan Raphael -25:35 (3)
  • Rebekah Keat -16:50 (2)
  • Linsey Corbin -12:09 (5)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker -09:34 (4)
Jan Raphael has declined his Kona slot (he qualified late in the year in Sweden), he wants to get his bad Kona results out of his mind before trying again. 

New to Kona

There are also a few athletes that haven’t yet raced in Kona. Usually, these athletes should race a bit conservatively and build some experience in the Kona conditions:

  • Jordan Rapp
  • Trevor Wurtele
  • David Dellow
  • Sebastian Kienle
  • Michael Raelert
  • Greg Bennett
  • Michelle Gailey
  • Michelle Vesterby
This post is an excerpt from my Kona Rating Report. You can receive your copy by using this link to subscribe to my email list.

Kona Odds for Winning and TOP3

The following is a slightly updated excerpt from my Kona Rating Report. (You can receive your copy by using this link to subscribe to my email list.)

Male Winners

The clear favorite is Craig Alexander. He’s had a strong qualifying race in Melbourne (going sub-8 for the first time) and also raced well during the year and at the Las Vegas 70.3 championships. 

The other contenders all have some issues against them: Marino had a DNF in Kona last year (but won in Frankfurt), Andreas had sub-standard race in Frankfurt, Macca focused on the Olympics and merely validated his spot by “jogging it in” in Cairns. I’ve put Pete Jacobs in the “Long Shots” – he’s had an injury and wasn’t in his best shape when he qualified in Lake Placid. Of course, he (and the other long shots as well) has the potential to win in Kona if he puts together his dream race and some other, higher ranked athletes run into problems.

Favorite

  • Craig Alexander 34% (2-1)

In the Mix

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 14% (6-1)
  • Andreas Raelert 11% (8-1)
  • Chris McCormack 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

  • Pete Jacobs 7% (11-1)
  • Eneko Llanos 7% (11-1)
  • Cameron Brown 5% (19-1)

Female Winners

On the women’s side, the situation is not quite as clear as the men’s side. Rinnie’s year has not been going quite as well (both compared to her last years and to Crowie’s), and Caroline Steffen has had a stellar 2012 – that’s why I consider both of these athletes as the favorites. If I had to pick one of them, I’d probably go with Caroline, as she seems to have the momentum. But as she says herself, odds don’t mean anything on race day.

Favorites

  • Mirinda Carfrae 31% (2-1)
  • Caroline Steffen 20% (4-1)

In the Mix

  • Rachel Joyce 17% (5-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis 12% (7-1)

Long Shots

  • Leanda Cave 10% (9-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich 3% (32-1)

Male TOP 3

There are a few new faces in Kona (such as Jordan Rapp, David Dellow, Paul Matthews and Sebastian Kienle) that have some chances for a podium finish. Some of the older and established athletes (Macca, Eneko, Cam Brown, Timo Bracht, maybe even Faris) may not have a strong winning chance, but look pretty good for finishing on the podium.

Safe Bets

  • Craig Alexander 46%
  • Marino Vanhoenacker 44%
  • Andreas Raelert 41%

Knocking on the door

  • Chris McCormack 25%
  • Eneko Llanos 22%
  • Pete Jacobs 21%
  • Jordan Rapp 18%
  • Dirk Bockel 16%
  • David Dellow 14%

Outside Chances

  • Paul Amey 10%
  • Frederik Van Lierde 9%
  • Cameron Brown 9%
  • Timo Bracht 8% 
  • Rasmus Henning 4%
  • Paul Matthews 4%
  • Faris Al-Sultan 3%
  • Sebastian Kienle 3%

Female TOP 3

On the female side, we have five strong contenders for the podium. After that there are a few good athletes with outside chances but already a clear distance to the first five.

Safe Bets

  • Caroline Steffen 47%
  • Mirinda Carfrae 46%
  • Rachel Joyce 39%

Knocking on the door

  • Mary Beth Ellis 37%
  • Leanda Cave 33%

Outside Chances

  • Sonja Tajsich 16%
  • Anja Beranek 13%
  • Linsey Corbin 11%
  • Rebekah Keat 11%
  • Amy Marsh 9%
  • Caitlin Snow 8%
  • Jessica Jacobs 6%
  • Erika Csomor 5% 
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