Ironman Australia 2014 (May 4th) – Predictions

Please let me know your top picks on IM-Predictions! We’re already at round #5 for this season, but there will be a lot more chances to score more points until Kona!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (GBR) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke Bell AUS 00:47:25 04:46:02 02:53:48 08:30:23
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:53:20 04:51:16 02:54:58 08:42:58
3 Luke Whitmore AUS 00:52:49 05:08:23 02:58:37 09:03:30

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 00:57:05 05:15:01 03:18:46 09:34:55
2 Ange Castle AUS 01:01:19 05:12:06 03:23:19 09:41:38
3 Nicole Ward AUS 00:54:24 05:38:08 03:16:38 09:52:31

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:44:32 Adrian Cominotto 2010-03-28
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 04:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 01:48 02:09 -07:42 00:32 16 01:48 02:09 -07:42 00:32
2007 04:10 01:52 -04:43 01:16 24 02:59 02:01 -06:13 00:54
2008 00:09 -00:01 -03:03 00:57 20 02:02 01:20 -05:09 00:55
2009 02:25 -00:18 -04:23 02:39 24 02:08 00:56 -04:58 01:21
2010 07:54 04:53 03:21 00:12 14 03:17 01:43 -03:18 01:07
2011 02:18 02:14 -02:29 01:54 13 03:07 01:48 -03:10 01:15
2012 06:09 02:21 01:08 04:11 9 03:33 01:53 -02:33 01:40
2013 14:00 01:35 -03:28 08:01 8 04:51 01:51 -02:40 02:28

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 40k$.

There are not too many athletes that are racing with a focus on KPR points. Luke Bell and Peter Robertson are probably the only two athletes that were seriously making plans to race Kona this year, but both are only at around 1.000 points and would need a win (and some more points from 70.3 races) to have a chance for a July cutoff.

On the women’s side, Mel Hauschildt is an automatic qualifier as the 70.3 champion, so she just has to validate her slot by finishing. Lisa Marangon (currently at 2.860) is the best placed athlete in the KPR, she would also need a win to make it to Kona.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 5 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:34:17 08:38:57 00:47:28 04:45:44 02:55:01 (38)
2 4 Peter Robertson AUS 08:39:22 08:44:05 00:45:57 04:37:01 03:03:53 (54)
3 9 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:47:23 08:52:10 00:53:11 04:48:30 03:03:24 87
4 1 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:05 08:52:53 00:48:19 04:44:11 03:15:29 94
5 8 Jason Shortis AUS 08:48:27 08:53:15 00:54:00 04:51:08 03:01:47 97
6 2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:51:27 08:56:16 00:49:02 04:44:42 03:18:14 109
7 3 Matty White AUS 08:53:32 08:58:23 00:51:53 04:50:33 03:12:46 122
8 6 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:57:51 09:02:44 00:54:14 05:01:13 03:01:17 144
9 7 Elliot Holtham CAN 08:59:34 09:04:28 00:53:04 04:49:19 03:09:31 (150)
10 10 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:05:08 09:10:05 00:53:01 05:03:05 03:07:52 169
11 12 Jon Woods NZL 09:42:56 09:48:13 00:56:27 05:05:25 03:35:51 308
12 13 Dan Brown PHI 09:58:01 10:03:27 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:50:01 360
11 Darren Jenkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 22 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:42:11 09:47:28 00:54:18 05:36:34 03:18:37 54
2 23 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:49:56 09:55:17 00:54:33 05:17:58 03:37:51 68
3 24 Melanie Burke NZL 09:51:43 09:57:05 01:07:51 05:22:07 03:23:31 74
4 21 Hillary Biscay USA 10:04:31 10:10:00 00:52:18 05:34:25 03:36:49 98
5 25 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:04:49 10:10:18 00:58:51 05:20:39 03:42:43 100
6 26 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 10:38:12 10:44:00 01:05:11 05:36:51 03:48:06 (142)
7 27 Megumi Shigaki JPN 11:00:23 11:06:23 00:59:36 05:43:30 04:15:22 149
20 Melissa Hauschildt AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Defending champion Luke Bell has had a good 2013 season (wins in Australia and Mont Tremblant) that don’t end well: A frustrating 31st in Kona, then a DNF in Western Australia and a knee injury. He’s hopefully fully recovered, but not the top pick. This spot goes to Paul Ambrose but he also has few DNFs lately. Other contenders are „newcomers“ (to the IM distance) Denis Chevrot, Peter Robertson and Nick Baldwin, and the „old hands“ Jason Shortis and Matty White.

  • Paul Ambrose: 35% (2-1)
  • Luke Bell: 22% (4-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 18% (5-1)
  • Peter Robertson: 8% (12-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 7% (12-1)
  • Matty White: 7% (13-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 2% (44-1)

Female Race Participants

The „headliner“ in the women’s race is Mel Hauschildt. She is racing her first Ironman, so it is hard to estimate how her performance will turn out. She has taken some time top get ready for the race, so if nothing bad happens during the race, she should win comfortably as I can see no one that could challenge her on a good bike and run day. (I’m putting her chances for a win at 50%, not based on previous IM results but based on how good of an athlete she as proven to be on the shorter distances.) However, if she does run into problems, there are a number of athletes more than eager to win an Ironman race.

  • Melissa Hauschildt: 50% (1-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 22% (4-1)
  • Lisa Marangon: 18% (5-1)
  • Melanie Burke: 5% (19-1)
  • Hillary Biscay: 4% (24-1)
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