Ironman Australia 2015 (May 3rd) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:25:44	Lisa Bentley (CAN)	09:13:20
2006	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:20:42	Lisa Bentley (CAN)	09:19:44
2007	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:21:49	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	09:12:59
2008	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:31:32	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	09:03:54
2009	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:24:53	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:57:10
2010	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:23:54	Carrie Lester (AUS)	09:23:46
2011	Pete Jacobs (AUS)	08:29:28	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	09:29:54
2012	Paul Ambrose (GBR)	08:17:38	Michelle Gailey (AUS)	09:34:57
2013	Luke Bell (AUS)	08:30:23	Rebecca Hoschke (AUS)	09:34:55
2014	Elliot Holtham (CAN)	08:35:18	Melissa Hauschildt (AUS)	09:28:43

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Elliot Holtham	CAN	00:49:26	04:49:09	02:53:28	08:35:18
2	Paul Ambrose	GBR	00:46:29	04:46:28	03:01:37	08:37:47
3	Nick Baldwin	SEY	00:50:10	04:50:54	02:56:22	08:41:19

Last year’s winner Elliot Hotham is not back to defend his title. He said that he „got so burnt out chasing points and racing Kona“ – even after winning in Australia he had to race until the end of August to collect the required points for a slot. He took a lot off time off after Kona but is now already trying to figure out how to return to Kona in 2016.

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	00:50:46	05:19:57	03:13:57	09:28:43
2	Lisa Marangon	AUS	00:49:49	05:12:19	03:23:53	09:30:50
3	Melanie Burke	NZL	00:58:08	05:21:39	03:09:19	09:32:53

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:17:38	Paul Ambrose	2012-04-29
Swim	overall	00:44:24	Luke Bell	2014-05-04
Bike	overall	04:31:25	Paul Ambrose	2012-04-29
Run	overall	02:47:20	Tim Van Berkel	2012-04-29
Total	female	08:57:10	Chrissie Wellington	2009-04-05
Swim	female	00:48:42	Melissa Ashton	2006-05-11
Bike	female	05:00:57	Carrie Lester	2010-03-28
Run	female	03:01:06	Lisa Bentley	2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 05:01.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	01:43	02:10	-07:45	00:29	16	01:43	02:10	-07:45	00:29
2007	04:09	01:53	-05:32	01:03	24	02:56	02:01	-06:38	00:46
2008	-00:09	-00:01	-03:18	00:46	20	01:54	01:21	-05:31	00:46
2009	02:03	-00:18	-04:25	02:34	24	01:57	00:56	-05:15	01:13
2010	07:37	04:52	03:16	00:04	14	03:05	01:43	-03:33	00:59
2011	01:59	02:13	-02:32	01:44	13	02:54	01:48	-03:23	01:07
2012	05:09	02:20	01:15	04:04	9	03:13	01:53	-02:43	01:32
2013	11:54	01:34	-03:27	07:58	8	04:18	01:50	-02:48	02:20
2014	10:40	03:32	-02:43	08:29	13	05:01	02:02	-02:48	03:01

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Pete Jacobs	AUS	08:24:07	08:53:49	00:45:14	04:39:42	02:54:10	102
2	4	Peter Robertson	AUS	08:33:11	08:48:32	00:45:11	04:43:47	02:59:13	(81)
3	2	Paul Ambrose	GBR	08:36:11	08:46:15	00:46:54	04:41:04	03:03:12	64
4	3	Luke Bell	AUS	08:36:40	08:53:31	00:45:45	04:41:43	03:04:12	100
5	7	Matt Burton	AUS	08:46:19	09:01:52	00:51:12	04:43:04	03:07:03	137
6	5	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:48:29	08:56:20	00:51:28	04:50:59	03:01:02	118
7	9	Carl Read	NZL	08:51:53	09:00:23	00:50:08	04:58:59	02:57:47	133
8	12	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:53:08	08:55:43	00:52:20	04:45:14	03:10:34	116
9	16	Luke Martin	AUS	08:53:34	09:03:56	00:49:45	04:57:28	03:01:21	(149)
10	6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:54:46	08:59:27	00:53:24	04:55:05	03:01:16	129
11	13	Brian Fuller	AUS	08:58:56	09:12:37	00:50:32	04:51:14	03:12:10	186
12	14	Darren Jenkins	AUS	09:10:36	09:18:23	01:01:59	05:02:02	03:01:36	209
13	8	Graham O’Grady	NZL	09:27:47	09:44:38	00:43:49	04:51:04	03:47:55	(319)
14	15	Lachlan Kerin	AUS	09:41:06	09:58:20	00:48:22	05:04:31	03:43:13	(369)
15	18	Matt Randall	NZL	09:49:39	10:13:12	01:01:15	05:03:03	03:40:22	(411)
16	17	Dan McGuigan	AUS	09:57:32	10:15:15	00:59:59	05:01:14	03:51:19	(417)
17	11	Daniel Brown	AUS	10:45:15	11:04:23	01:01:54	05:38:51	03:59:31	(476)
18	10	Josef Svoboda	CZE	11:52:39	12:12:15	01:10:21	06:12:10	04:25:09	484

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	21	Lisa Marangon	AUS	09:36:01	09:56:22	00:51:09	05:11:42	03:28:09	81
2	22	Melanie Burke	NZL	09:41:52	09:49:29	01:02:22	05:17:43	03:16:47	62
3	24	Michelle Gailey	AUS	09:41:55	09:53:53	00:51:25	05:33:12	03:12:18	75
4	23	Michelle Bremer	NZL	09:42:05	09:48:56	00:56:04	05:17:56	03:23:04	59
5	25	Jessica Fleming	AUS	09:50:22	10:07:57	00:58:41	05:20:15	03:26:27	(104)
6	28	Christie Sym	AUS	09:55:26	10:08:54	00:56:30	05:23:04	03:30:52	(108)
7	27	Michelle Duffield	AUS	10:01:23	10:08:09	00:58:47	05:30:52	03:26:43	105
8	26	Michelle Wu	AUS	10:02:43	10:20:35	00:57:15	05:48:45	03:11:43	(137)
9	29	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:08:31	10:29:36	00:53:25	05:45:55	03:24:12	154
10	31	Marina Jurjevic	AUS	10:10:02	10:28:07	01:01:59	05:16:13	03:46:50	(152)
	30	Marie Sorrell	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is a very interesting mix of athletes in this field. Pete Jacobs is the biggest name on paper, but he hasn’t had a good race since he won in Kona 2012. Hopefully, he was able to have a decent preparation for this race – then he would have to be considered the favorite. Peter Robertson and Luke Bell have both started in Melbourne but didn’t have the results they were looking for (Peter DNF’d probably hoping for a better day in Port Macquarie, Luke had 4h marathon and finished 15th). Paul Ambrose (winner in 2012 and second finisher last year) is hard to predict. Nick Baldwin has just finished 6th at IM Taiwan and is probably still be a bit tired.

• Peter Robertson: 34% (2-1)
• Paul Ambrose: 19% (4-1)
• Luke Bell: 17% (5-1)
• Pete Jacobs: 13% (7-1)
• Nick Baldwin: 6% (17-1)
• Matt Burton: 4% (22-1)
• Carl Read: 4% (27-1)
• Petr Vabrousek: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

Lisa Marangon is always close to the front – last year she finished second to Mel Hauschildt and has to be considered the front runner for this year. But she faces strong competition in Melanie Burke (recently third at IM New Zealand), Michelle Gailey (coming back after injuries and a 2014 scare with skin cancer) and Michelle Bremer (athlete with the best rating).

• Lisa Marangon: 53% (1-1)
• Melanie Burke: 16% (5-1)
• Michelle Gailey: 15% (6-1)
• Michelle Bremer: 12% (7-1)
• Jessica Fleming: 3% (32-1)