Ironman Copenhagen 2015 (Aug 23rd) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36
2014 Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) 08:03:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:53:33

From 2010 to 2012 the race was organized as “Challenge Copenhagen” on the same course.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:46:09 04:16:41 02:56:58 08:03:39
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:45:58 04:30:30 02:49:24 08:10:53
3 Timo Bracht GER 00:46:21 04:27:16 02:53:54 08:11:32

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:48:37 04:44:09 03:16:15 08:53:33
2 Sofie Goos BEL 00:54:30 04:56:38 03:10:36 09:06:08
3 Mareen Hufe GER 00:58:44 04:58:39 03:22:44 09:25:18

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:39 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:16:41 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 22:41.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 30:07 01:24 09:53 10:08 18 30:07 01:24 09:53 10:08
2011 23:45 02:48 11:13 06:44 19 26:56 02:06 10:33 08:26
2012 17:45 02:03 10:25 04:25 16 23:52 02:05 10:31 07:06
2013 26:36 00:50 15:15 06:59 20 24:33 01:46 11:42 07:04
2014 15:11 01:39 07:25 02:58 22 22:41 01:45 10:50 06:15

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 08:03:33 08:46:01 00:45:56 04:16:49 02:55:48 69
2 2 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:15:48 08:42:19 00:48:42 04:34:49 02:47:17 56
3 6 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:15:52 08:34:39 00:53:30 04:31:25 02:45:56 32
4 18 Jan Raphael GER 08:18:32 08:37:27 00:46:38 04:32:24 02:54:30 39
5 26 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:19:57 08:44:22 00:46:39 04:28:42 02:59:36 66
6 24 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:20:41 08:49:54 00:46:44 04:32:29 02:56:28 90
7 7 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:22:21 08:52:43 00:48:00 04:34:13 02:55:09 100
8 4 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:27:21 08:51:33 00:51:04 04:40:55 02:50:23 98
9 28 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:31:11 09:00:08 00:51:12 04:39:26 02:55:33 (130)
10 23 Anders Christensen DNK 08:34:08 09:07:28 00:00:00 00:00:00 00:00:00 (159)
11 17 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:39:51 09:02:20 00:58:16 04:38:09 02:58:26 139
12 15 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:50:34 09:15:38 00:46:01 04:34:40 03:24:53 202
13 9 Harri Sokk EST 09:00:34 09:30:12 00:57:03 04:38:56 03:19:35 (259)
14 27 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:13:07 09:58:52 00:59:59 04:46:32 03:21:36 (368)
15 13 Michael Louys BEL 09:15:39 09:46:04 00:59:06 04:51:11 03:20:22 (324)
16 10 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:19:04 10:25:14 00:49:24 05:05:57 03:18:43 455
17 12 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:27:07 09:57:56 01:05:21 04:59:03 03:17:43 363
18 5 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:28:25 10:05:16 00:48:05 04:52:15 03:43:05 (393)
19 19 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:29:29 10:14:07 01:05:04 04:58:08 03:21:17 422
20 14 Alexander Wulff DEN 10:57:14 11:39:50 01:08:22 05:40:26 04:03:25 (495)
21 25 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:14:18 12:11:01 01:08:24 05:36:48 04:24:06 496
22 8 Mathias Nagel GER 13:02:42 14:08:54 01:26:23 05:53:26 05:37:53 (498)
3 Luca Cozza ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Alberto Perassi n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Gili Oriol ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Among the participants Fraser Cartmell (3.615 points) and Guilherme Manocchio (3.540 points) are in the best position to qualify. In addition, Mike Aigroz (2.825) and Mike Schifferle (2.525) could get an August slot with at least a podium finish or better.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 36 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:00:25 09:23:37 00:57:16 04:55:20 03:02:48 16
2 29 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:03:43 09:36:09 00:50:04 04:56:44 03:11:55 40
3 38 Sofie Goos BEL 09:06:30 09:36:49 00:54:04 04:57:40 03:09:45 42
4 40 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:08:52 09:31:32 01:00:04 04:56:55 03:06:54 28
5 34 Lucie Reed CZE 09:17:23 09:45:18 00:49:00 05:06:08 03:17:15 55
6 33 Astrid Stienen GER 09:19:22 09:44:36 00:56:42 05:01:19 03:16:20 53
7 35 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:20:07 09:56:24 00:55:01 04:54:30 03:25:36 81
8 30 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:21:05 10:07:08 01:05:55 05:00:59 03:09:12 108
9 32 Kathrin Walther GER 09:36:37 10:20:34 00:58:03 05:05:36 03:27:58 141
10 31 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 09:50:29 10:22:25 00:58:03 05:30:04 03:17:22 (146)
11 37 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:00:38 10:32:40 01:01:02 05:22:34 03:32:01 164
12 39 Vicky Gill GBR 10:40:43 11:22:15 01:08:15 05:45:17 03:42:11 (183)

With Michelle Vesterby and Sonja Tajsich there are two athletes looking for just a few more points to make it to Kona – a Top 7 is probably enough for them. Sofie Goos could also still qualify, but she will need a win for a safe slot.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Henrik Hyldelund: 31% (2-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 17% (5-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 14% (6-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 12% (7-1)
  • Jan Raphael: 10% (9-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 9% (10-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 6% (16-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Corinne Abraham: 31% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 28% (3-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 24% (3-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 9% (10-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 4% (22-1)
  • Regula Rohrbach: 2% (50-1)
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