Ironman Copenhagen 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2010	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:39	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:54:36
2011	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:11:15	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:52:42
2012	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:20:09	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	09:12:27
2013	Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN)	08:12:41	Eva Wutti (AUT)	08:37:36

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	00:49:46	04:33:51	02:45:15	08:12:41
2	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	00:47:19	04:23:58	02:57:52	08:13:39
3	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	00:51:46	04:31:49	02:49:17	08:16:38

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Eva Wutti	AUT	00:52:55	04:39:58	03:00:51	08:37:36
2	Daniela Saemmler	GER	00:53:02	04:57:42	03:08:14	09:02:51
3	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:49:45	05:00:16	03:10:07	09:04:08

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:07:39	Tim Van Berkel	2010-08-01
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Stephen Bayliss	2011-08-01
Bike	overall	04:23:58	Henrik Hyldelund	2013-08-18
Run	overall	02:38:58	Mads Vittrup	2011-08-01
Total	female	08:37:36	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:48:29	Ann Lønnberg	2011-08-01
Bike	female	04:39:58	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Run	female	03:00:51	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 25:22.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2010	30:40	01:24	09:51	10:08	18	30:40	01:24	09:51	10:08
2011	24:30	02:49	11:13	06:44	19	27:35	02:06	10:32	08:26
2012	18:04	02:03	10:24	04:28	16	24:25	02:05	10:29	07:06
2013	28:12	00:50	15:18	07:04	20	25:22	01:46	11:42	07:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Timo Bracht	GER	07:57:18	08:20:49	00:49:25	04:36:04	02:50:45	3
2	Clemente Alonso-McKernan	ESP	08:13:43	08:38:03	00:48:06	04:49:50	02:53:37	(40)
3	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:18:13	08:42:46	00:52:14	04:49:15	02:55:48	53
4	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:21:24	08:46:06	00:48:27	04:47:46	03:02:22	61
5	Mads Vittrup	DEN	08:21:35	08:46:18	00:55:21	04:55:50	02:48:35	(62)
6	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:22:59	08:47:46	00:52:00	04:42:57	03:01:28	(66)
7	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:26:36	08:51:34	00:53:06	04:48:31	03:04:10	(82)
8	Mika Luoto	FIN	08:29:43	08:54:50	00:53:53	04:54:37	03:01:37	(101)
9	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:33:47	08:59:06	00:55:07	04:52:57	03:03:52	123
10	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	08:33:51	08:59:10	00:47:42	04:44:03	03:18:23	125
11	Teemu Lemmettylae	FIN	08:39:46	09:05:23	00:57:23	04:55:29	03:03:18	151
12	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:42:18	09:08:02	00:53:04	04:56:04	03:12:43	167
13	Antonio Jesus Aguilar Conejo	ESP	09:01:58	09:28:40	01:00:46	05:05:52	02:59:29	(239)
14	Matic Modic	SLO	09:06:35	09:33:31	00:56:12	05:02:21	03:13:52	(263)
15	Anders Wagner	DEN	09:10:00	09:37:06	01:03:28	05:06:03	03:09:03	(274)
16	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:13:21	09:40:37	01:03:31	05:02:07	03:20:14	(285)
17	Anders Lawaetz	DEN	09:19:00	09:46:33	01:01:49	05:01:16	03:21:20	(314)
18	Kasper Ougaard	DEN	09:21:39	09:49:20	01:02:38	05:00:19	03:28:46	(327)
19	David Jilek	CZE	09:23:30	09:51:16	00:58:18	04:57:43	03:33:24	(334)
20	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	09:29:51	09:57:56	00:56:04	05:05:38	03:34:24	(360)
21	Steve Clark	GBR	09:30:28	09:58:35	00:59:13	05:08:39	03:28:32	(366)
22	Martin Cain	GBR	09:34:48	10:03:08	00:59:29	05:19:03	03:35:15	371
23	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	09:34:50	10:03:10	01:00:20	05:21:43	03:32:07	372
24	Dan Brown	PHI	09:35:01	10:03:21	01:03:20	05:39:36	03:49:53	374
25	Petr Vales	CZE	09:36:01	10:04:24	01:02:41	05:11:30	03:27:58	(378)
	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Nick Hemet		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Roman Krutina	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Christian Nilsson		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Anders Stampe		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Richard Whitfield	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	09:00:14	09:26:51	00:52:47	05:05:23	03:10:52	(14)
2	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:00:22	09:27:00	00:50:47	05:11:05	03:19:56	14
3	Sofie Goos	BEL	09:09:47	09:36:53	00:55:39	05:16:40	03:19:10	32
4	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:19:37	09:47:12	01:01:06	05:11:24	03:28:44	56
5	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:28:00	09:55:59	01:08:26	05:21:17	03:16:18	80
6	Beate Goertz	GER	09:28:09	09:56:09	01:04:25	05:07:28	03:27:26	(82)
7	Evi Neuscheler	GER	09:33:57	10:02:14	01:03:06	05:15:51	03:27:33	(94)
8	Maria Lemeseva	RUS	09:46:25	10:15:19	01:06:36	05:32:46	03:25:30	120
9	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	09:48:43	10:17:44	00:58:52	05:21:08	03:49:49	125
10	Nicole Woysch	GER	09:55:55	10:25:17	00:58:35	05:30:28	03:47:39	136
11	Line Foss	NOR	10:25:26	10:56:15	01:26:19	05:28:17	03:42:54	(159)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Timo Bracht: 59% (1-1)
• Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 17% (5-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 17% (5-1)
• Mads Vittrup: 3% (35-1)

Female Race Participants

• Leanda Cave: 41% (1-1)
• Sofie Goos: 30% (2-1)
• Daniela Ryf: 14% (6-1)
• Mareen Hufe: 10% (9-1)
• Camilla Lindholm: 3% (34-1)

KPR Situation

On the men’s side, the big name on the start list is Timo Bracht. Theoretically, he would be in a safe position for a slot after validating, but he has already indicated that he is not interested in racing Kona this year. (Instead, he is targeting IM Mallorca for a good start into the next qualifying cycle.) The best placed athlete in the KPR is Petr Vabrousek with 3.190 points (230 to be discarded). In order to reach the projected cutoff of 4.400 points, he would need a 3rd place in Copenhagen. The only other athlete with a theoretical chance for a slot is Marc Duelsen at 2.140 points (65 to be discarded), but even with a win he needs some other athlete’s bad luck in order to make it.

On the women’s side we have Leanda Cave (probably a DNS after just winning in Sweden), Daniela Ryf (who should already be safe with 5.810 points), Sofie Goos (at 4.265 with 500 points to be discarded) and Mareen Hufe (3.930 with 45 to be discarded). It seems that Sofie and Mareen are racing for one slot – so whoever is in front of the other should be good for a slot as long as it’s at least a 3rd place.