Ironman Copenhagen 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:49:46 04:33:51 02:45:15 08:12:41
2 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:47:19 04:23:58 02:57:52 08:13:39
3 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:51:46 04:31:49 02:49:17 08:16:38

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 00:52:55 04:39:58 03:00:51 08:37:36
2 Daniela Saemmler GER 00:53:02 04:57:42 03:08:14 09:02:51
3 Lucie Reed CZE 00:49:45 05:00:16 03:10:07 09:04:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:39 Tim Van Berkel 2010-08-01
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:23:58 Henrik Hyldelund 2013-08-18
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 25:22.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 30:40 01:24 09:51 10:08 18 30:40 01:24 09:51 10:08
2011 24:30 02:49 11:13 06:44 19 27:35 02:06 10:32 08:26
2012 18:04 02:03 10:24 04:28 16 24:25 02:05 10:29 07:06
2013 28:12 00:50 15:18 07:04 20 25:22 01:46 11:42 07:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 07:57:18 08:20:49 00:49:25 04:36:04 02:50:45 3
2 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:13:43 08:38:03 00:48:06 04:49:50 02:53:37 (40)
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:18:13 08:42:46 00:52:14 04:49:15 02:55:48 53
4 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:21:24 08:46:06 00:48:27 04:47:46 03:02:22 61
5 Mads Vittrup DEN 08:21:35 08:46:18 00:55:21 04:55:50 02:48:35 (62)
6 Marc Duelsen GER 08:22:59 08:47:46 00:52:00 04:42:57 03:01:28 (66)
7 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:26:36 08:51:34 00:53:06 04:48:31 03:04:10 (82)
8 Mika Luoto FIN 08:29:43 08:54:50 00:53:53 04:54:37 03:01:37 (101)
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:33:47 08:59:06 00:55:07 04:52:57 03:03:52 123
10 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 08:33:51 08:59:10 00:47:42 04:44:03 03:18:23 125
11 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 08:39:46 09:05:23 00:57:23 04:55:29 03:03:18 151
12 Keegan Williams NZL 08:42:18 09:08:02 00:53:04 04:56:04 03:12:43 167
13 Antonio Jesus Aguilar Conejo ESP 09:01:58 09:28:40 01:00:46 05:05:52 02:59:29 (239)
14 Matic Modic SLO 09:06:35 09:33:31 00:56:12 05:02:21 03:13:52 (263)
15 Anders Wagner DEN 09:10:00 09:37:06 01:03:28 05:06:03 03:09:03 (274)
16 Lukas Polan CZE 09:13:21 09:40:37 01:03:31 05:02:07 03:20:14 (285)
17 Anders Lawaetz DEN 09:19:00 09:46:33 01:01:49 05:01:16 03:21:20 (314)
18 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:21:39 09:49:20 01:02:38 05:00:19 03:28:46 (327)
19 David Jilek CZE 09:23:30 09:51:16 00:58:18 04:57:43 03:33:24 (334)
20 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:29:51 09:57:56 00:56:04 05:05:38 03:34:24 (360)
21 Steve Clark GBR 09:30:28 09:58:35 00:59:13 05:08:39 03:28:32 (366)
22 Martin Cain GBR 09:34:48 10:03:08 00:59:29 05:19:03 03:35:15 371
23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:34:50 10:03:10 01:00:20 05:21:43 03:32:07 372
24 Dan Brown PHI 09:35:01 10:03:21 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:49:53 374
25 Petr Vales CZE 09:36:01 10:04:24 01:02:41 05:11:30 03:27:58 (378)
Vincent Depuiset FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Nick Hemet n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Roman Krutina CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Christian Nilsson n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Anders Stampe n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Richard Whitfield GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 09:00:14 09:26:51 00:52:47 05:05:23 03:10:52 (14)
2 Leanda Cave GBR 09:00:22 09:27:00 00:50:47 05:11:05 03:19:56 14
3 Sofie Goos BEL 09:09:47 09:36:53 00:55:39 05:16:40 03:19:10 32
4 Mareen Hufe GER 09:19:37 09:47:12 01:01:06 05:11:24 03:28:44 56
5 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:28:00 09:55:59 01:08:26 05:21:17 03:16:18 80
6 Beate Goertz GER 09:28:09 09:56:09 01:04:25 05:07:28 03:27:26 (82)
7 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:33:57 10:02:14 01:03:06 05:15:51 03:27:33 (94)
8 Maria Lemeseva RUS 09:46:25 10:15:19 01:06:36 05:32:46 03:25:30 120
9 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:48:43 10:17:44 00:58:52 05:21:08 03:49:49 125
10 Nicole Woysch GER 09:55:55 10:25:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:39 136
11 Line Foss NOR 10:25:26 10:56:15 01:26:19 05:28:17 03:42:54 (159)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Timo Bracht: 59% (1-1)
  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 17% (5-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 17% (5-1)
  • Mads Vittrup: 3% (35-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Leanda Cave: 41% (1-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 30% (2-1)
  • Daniela Ryf: 14% (6-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 10% (9-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 3% (34-1)

KPR Situation

On the men’s side, the big name on the start list is Timo Bracht. Theoretically, he would be in a safe position for a slot after validating, but he has already indicated that he is not interested in racing Kona this year. (Instead, he is targeting IM Mallorca for a good start into the next qualifying cycle.) The best placed athlete in the KPR is Petr Vabrousek with 3.190 points (230 to be discarded). In order to reach the projected cutoff of 4.400 points, he would need a 3rd place in Copenhagen. The only other athlete with a theoretical chance for a slot is Marc Duelsen at 2.140 points (65 to be discarded), but even with a win he needs some other athlete’s bad luck in order to make it.

On the women’s side we have Leanda Cave (probably a DNS after just winning in Sweden), Daniela Ryf (who should already be safe with 5.810 points), Sofie Goos (at 4.265 with 500 points to be discarded) and Mareen Hufe (3.930 with 45 to be discarded). It seems that Sofie and Mareen are racing for one slot – so whoever is in front of the other should be good for a slot as long as it’s at least a 3rd place.

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