Ironman Copenhagen 2016 (Aug 21st) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2010	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:39	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:54:36
2011	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:11:15	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:52:42
2012	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:20:09	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	09:12:27
2013	Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN)	08:12:41	Eva Wutti (AUT)	08:37:36
2014	Henrik Hyldelund (DEN)	08:03:39	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:53:33
2015	Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)	08:14:56	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	08:59:49

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	00:48:16	04:26:43	02:54:15	08:14:56
2	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	00:48:13	04:27:07	03:02:31	08:21:51
3	Andreas Niedrig	GER	00:47:02	04:21:47	03:14:03	08:27:37

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:50:45	04:52:22	03:12:10	08:59:49
2	Sofie Goos	BEL	00:56:35	04:54:22	03:07:59	09:03:07
3	Sonja Tajsich	GER	00:58:17	04:52:28	03:13:23	09:08:43

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:03:39	Henrik Hyldelund	2014-08-24
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Stephen Bayliss	2011-08-01
Bike	overall	04:16:41	Henrik Hyldelund	2014-08-24
Run	overall	02:38:58	Mads Vittrup	2011-08-01
Total	female	08:37:36	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:48:29	Ann Lønnberg	2011-08-01
Bike	female	04:39:58	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Run	female	03:00:51	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 21:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2010	30:24	01:26	10:34	09:47	24	30:24	01:26	10:34	09:47
2011	24:27	02:52	11:18	06:34	28	27:26	02:09	10:56	08:11
2012	17:56	02:05	10:31	04:21	19	24:16	02:08	10:48	06:54
2013	26:28	00:51	15:25	07:19	30	24:49	01:49	11:57	07:00
2014	14:36	01:32	07:41	02:49	27 of 35	22:46	01:45	11:06	06:10
2015	14:09	00:57	14:41	03:14	26 of 30	21:20	01:37	11:42	05:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is a P-2000 race. It is an MPRO only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Andreas Raelert	GER	07:59:12	08:17:58	00:47:07	04:23:06	02:43:59	48% +0% -52% (19)	4
2	10	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	08:06:49	08:38:00	00:47:24	04:24:59	02:49:26	9% +52% -39% (6)	(49)
3	2	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:10:25	08:34:19	00:49:11	04:29:33	02:46:41	54% +2% -44% (30)	38
4	3	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:16:08	08:41:56	00:48:43	04:34:40	02:47:45	68% +0% -32% (15)	60
5	6	Will Clarke	GBR	08:16:24	08:50:42	00:48:52	04:35:08	02:47:25	22% +40% -38% (3)	(92)
6	4	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:17:31	08:43:17	00:46:10	04:27:01	02:59:20	27% +28% -46% (11)	65
7	9	Per Bittner	GER	08:21:53	08:42:03	00:47:57	04:31:43	02:57:13	58% +15% -27% (18)	62
8	19	Horst Reichel	GER	08:22:00	09:00:30	00:47:18	04:32:42	02:57:00	7% +20% -73% (15)	(127)
9	40	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	08:22:42	09:21:50	00:46:06	04:40:18	02:51:19	1% +27% -71% (10)	195
10	13	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:22:47	08:55:54	00:51:10	04:31:18	02:55:18	35% +25% -40% (9)	106
11	8	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:22:48	08:48:52	00:45:54	04:38:27	02:53:28	38% +16% -46% (7)	86
12	39	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:24:57	08:57:29	00:47:05	04:35:27	02:57:25	56% +3% -42% (19)	115
13	41	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:25:31	08:45:33	00:47:12	04:33:07	03:00:13	57% +3% -40% (22)	78
14	25	Matic Modic	SLO	08:31:12	09:00:19	00:52:30	04:38:32	02:55:10	36% +54% -10% (7)	126
15	26	Gudmund Snilstveit	NOR	08:32:13	09:04:54	00:54:58	04:30:02	03:02:13	36% +17% -47% (8)	145
16	5	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:32:47	08:52:45	00:46:02	04:39:11	03:02:34	36% +27% -36% (15)	95
17	29	Dejan Patrcevic	CRO	08:35:20	08:55:01	00:50:41	04:41:03	02:58:36	76% +6% -17% (13)	101
18	32	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:36:44	09:02:06	00:57:51	04:36:25	02:57:28	87% +10% -3% (57)	130
19	27	David Naesvik	SWE	08:38:02	09:07:40	00:53:19	04:34:10	03:05:33	65% +0% -35% (14)	152
20	42	Mikolaj Luft	POL	08:45:00	09:17:35	00:48:44	04:42:06	03:09:10	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(186)
21	15	Freddy Lampret	ZAF	08:45:09	09:42:13	00:50:39	04:38:42	03:10:47	1% +30% -69% (9)	249
22	7	Antony Costes	FRA	08:47:28	09:30:49	00:47:20	04:31:38	03:23:31	30% +0% -70% (3)	(226)
23	31	Andreas Borch	DEN	08:48:05	09:17:26	00:47:35	04:42:17	03:13:12	47% +13% -40% (6)	(186)
24	36	Kasper Ougaard	DEN	08:51:41	09:28:34	00:57:22	04:43:03	03:06:17	9% +36% -54% (6)	218
25	11	Michael Louys	BEL	08:57:37	09:34:49	01:00:23	04:43:53	03:08:21	59% +9% -32% (10)	232
26	34	Sam Clark	NZL	09:04:42	09:37:01	00:55:54	04:50:32	03:13:16	42% +0% -58% (2)	(238)
27	17	Peter Kern	GER	09:11:35	10:08:55	00:54:15	04:48:09	03:24:11	2% +0% -98% (8)	(279)
28	16	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	09:11:39	09:49:11	00:50:31	04:55:23	03:20:45	21% +23% -55% (4)	(259)
29	33	Rene Jensen	DEN	09:12:37	09:46:55	00:53:07	04:56:26	03:18:04	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(257)
30	18	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	09:21:30	09:57:40	01:05:44	04:57:40	03:13:07	73% +12% -15% (8)	269
31	24	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:23:59	10:09:44	01:00:48	04:58:51	03:19:20	21% +10% -69% (11)	280
32	28	Nis Lind	DEN	09:31:27	10:06:50	00:58:06	04:55:41	03:32:40	80% +0% -20% (5)	(277)
33	30	Gilian Oriet	SUI	09:31:39	10:07:52	00:55:50	04:54:24	03:36:25	19% +9% -72% (11)	278
34	23	Jan Hron	CZE	09:33:25	10:09:01	01:01:54	05:14:16	03:12:15	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(280)
35	22	Remmert Wielinga	NED	09:49:19	10:52:28	01:10:07	04:52:56	03:41:16	7% +11% -82% (6)	(297)
36	38	Michal Jalovecky	CZE	10:19:40	10:47:31	01:01:24	05:42:48	03:30:27	78% +0% -22% (4)	295
37	20	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:17:38	12:16:37	01:09:58	05:39:30	04:23:10	30% +23% -47% (36)	302
	12	Rasmus Fitzner	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	14	Markus Liebelt	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	21	Michael Smith Larsen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	35	Robert Brundish	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	37	Olivier Esser	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	43	Patrick Hansen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Andreas Raelert has been struggling with a stress fracture and has only recently started running again, but he needs an IM finish to qualify for Kona. Patrik Nilsson has had some great late season results, last year he won his home race at IM Sweden in record-setting time.

• Andreas Raelert: 45% (1-1)
• Patrik Nilsson: 25% (3-1)
• Cameron Brown: 16% (5-1)
• Igor Amorelli: 6% (15-1)
• Horst Reichel: 2% (43-1)

KPR Situation

Here is a table with top-ranked athletes in the KPR (after the races of August 6th and 7th, but before 70.3 Wiesbaden) that still have a chance for a Kona slot:

Bib	Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
1	Andreas Raelert	GER	7200	1+0
9	Per Bittner	GER	3620	2+3 (1280/75)
3	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	3610	3+1 (685/0)
5	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	3495	3+2 (720/135)
4	Igor Amorelli	BRA	3320	2+3 (235/240)
7	Antony Costes	FRA	3280	2+3 (85/750)
41	Mike Aigroz	SUI	3200	3+2 (120/140)
2	Cameron Brown	NZL	2865	1+2
40	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	2460	1+3 (1670/135)
6	Will Clarke	GBR	2310	1+1
39	Anton Blokhin	UKR	1735	1+3 (1600/15)
32	Mike Schifferle	SUI	1692	3+2 (405/7)

Per Bittner and Jens-Petersen Bach have already received July slots, at least Per is unlikely to race in Copenhagen. (Update: Jens has announced that he won’t be racing.) Andreas Raelert still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for an August slot.