Ironman Melbourne 2015 (March 22nd) – Predictions

IMMelb If you want to, you can submit your picks for IM Melbourne on IM-Predictions.com and see how you do against all our other players!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Craig Alexander (AUS) 07:57:44 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:34:51
2013* Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:36:08 Corinne Abraham (GBR) 08:10:56
2014 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 08:01:02 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:57:57

*) shortened swim

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 00:45:35 04:23:05 02:48:35 08:01:02
2 Paul Matthews AUS 00:45:34 04:29:02 02:44:09 08:02:14
3 David Dellow AUS 00:45:44 04:21:35 02:51:41 08:03:07

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:03 04:56:38 03:04:44 08:57:57
2 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:50:00 04:59:36 03:08:48 09:02:15
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:03:32 05:00:13 03:01:34 09:10:06

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:57:44 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Swim overall 00:45:23 Benjamin Sanson 2014-03-23
Bike overall 04:20:50 Michael Weiss 2014-03-23
Run overall 02:38:46 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Total female 08:34:51 Caroline Steffen 2012-03-24
Swim female 00:50:00 Mary Beth Ellis 2014-03-23
Bike female 04:35:29 Caroline Steffen 2012-03-24
Run female 02:58:29 Mirinda Carfrae 2012-03-24

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Melbourne is 12:07.

Race Adjustments for IM Melbourne

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 09:11 -01:22 10:34 04:05 41 09:11 -01:22 10:34 04:05
2014 15:02 00:05 08:34 07:02 37 12:07 -00:38 09:34 05:33

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Melbourne has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 150k$. As a Regional Championship the Melbourne winners will receive an Automatic Qualifier spot for Kona 2015. Melbourne will also be the first race that will have mandatory GPS tracking for the Professional athletes – hopefully this will help to provide good coverage for the race!

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Nils Frommhold GER 08:07:33 08:14:10 00:48:26 04:23:57 02:50:10 2
2 13 Christian Kramer GER 08:17:58 08:40:33 00:47:57 04:33:14 02:51:46 48
3 2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:20:36 08:33:20 00:50:07 04:35:39 02:49:50 24
4 4 Marko Albert EST 08:21:57 08:34:23 00:47:31 04:34:59 02:54:26 28
5 5 Peter Robertson AUS 08:22:37 08:43:18 00:47:15 04:31:40 02:58:42 (55)
6 3 Luke Bell AUS 08:23:30 09:07:54 00:48:02 04:31:54 02:58:34 (156)
7 8 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:26:06 08:38:28 00:51:59 04:41:10 02:47:56 37
8 9 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:26:50 08:46:49 00:52:32 04:39:02 02:50:17 67
9 6 Jan Raphael GER 08:27:06 08:36:59 00:49:42 04:36:58 02:55:27 34
10 7 Per Bittner GER 08:33:51 08:45:33 00:50:46 04:39:57 02:58:09 59
11 15 Casey Munro AUS 08:34:42 09:05:09 00:46:36 04:29:49 03:13:17 (147)
12 19 Joshua Rix AUS 08:42:46 09:08:29 00:50:38 04:37:33 03:09:35 164
13 10 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:42:57 09:01:01 00:54:43 04:40:25 03:02:49 131
14 21 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:44:18 08:57:19 00:49:26 04:35:20 03:14:32 117
15 20 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:48:11 09:16:41 00:47:04 04:34:44 03:21:23 (199)
16 11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:49 09:08:05 00:53:21 04:35:25 03:15:04 (160)
17 18 Brendan Naef CAN 09:22:00 09:42:30 00:58:41 05:02:31 03:15:48 306
12 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
14 Lachlan Kern AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Callum Millward NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Dan McGuigan AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 32 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:49:02 08:56:08 00:55:32 04:58:08 02:50:22 1
2 31 Caroline Steffen SUI 08:51:34 09:10:02 00:52:36 04:49:38 03:04:20 4
3 33 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:05:22 09:13:42 00:59:26 04:53:32 03:07:24 5
4 38 Mareen Hufe GER 09:19:36 09:36:43 01:00:40 04:55:40 03:18:16 39
5 35 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:21:22 09:34:57 01:00:45 05:03:43 03:11:54 34
6 47 Emma Pooley GBR 09:27:02 09:51:42 01:03:32 04:57:41 03:20:48 (67)
7 37 Beth Gerdes USA 09:28:24 09:51:25 01:03:51 05:17:32 03:02:01 66
8 36 Bree Wee USA 09:28:42 09:42:10 00:55:20 05:11:42 03:16:39 47
9 44 Stephanie Jones USA 09:29:58 10:08:58 01:06:20 05:06:59 03:11:38 (109)
10 42 Ashley Clifford USA 09:30:38 09:41:34 00:55:30 05:23:19 03:06:49 46
11 34 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:32:37 09:57:31 00:55:36 05:11:58 03:20:03 (85)
12 40 Laura Bennett USA 09:34:54 09:59:55 00:53:38 05:06:14 03:30:02 (90)
13 41 Kym Coogan AUS 09:42:59 10:08:20 00:58:18 05:10:51 03:28:50 (107)
14 43 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:02:16 10:31:21 01:04:31 05:15:04 03:37:41 154
15 48 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:09:30 10:31:31 01:04:04 05:19:34 03:40:52 155
39 Annabel Luxford AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
45 Marina Jurjevic AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
46 Jessica Mitchell AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

My favorites are two Germans, Nils Frommhold (6th in Kona 2014) and Christian Kramer (who went sub-8 in Austria 2014). Marko Albert is another strong European athlete, while the home country hopes ride on Tim Van Berkel (7th in Kona 2014), Luke Bell (hopefully fully recovered after an injury-ridden 2014 season) and Peter Robertson (who had to miss Kona with a broken collarbone):

  • Nils Frommhold: 40% (2-1)
  • Christian Kramer: 22% (4-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 12% (8-1)
  • Marko Albert: 10% (9-1)
  • Luke Bell: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

The female fields is about as large as the men’s field – and probably even deeper. My top seeded athlete is Mirinda Carfrae returning to race in her home country, but it remains to be seen in what shape she’ll race. (Her previous spring races were more focused on validating her Kona slot in a decent way.) Last year’s winners Caroline Steffen would like to repeat and show that she is still a strong Kona contender. Yvonne Van Vlerken still needs a solid performance to ensure a return to the big island.

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 56% (1-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 33% (2-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 6% (15-1)

Behind these three top athletes, there is a strong group of athletes looking for a podium spot or a good number of KPR points: I’m sure that Mareen Hufe, Asa Lundstroem, Emma Pooley, Beth Gerdes, Bree Wee, Ashley Clifford, Mel Hauschildt, Laura Bennett and Annabel Luxford will make the women’s race interesting to follow.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

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