Ironman South Africa 2015 (March 29th) – Predictions

You can submit your picks for this race on IM-Predictions.

Update March 28th: The day before the race, Linsey Corbin had to announce she won’t be able to start.

Update March 23rd: Based on the latest start list, there have been a few cancellations: Michael Weiss, Emanuele Ciotti, Will Clarke, Karol Dzalaj, Martin Jensen, Beth Shutt, Anja Beranek, Svetlana Blazevic, Amy Forshaw, Caroline Koll, Kathrin Walther.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:36:06	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:46:38
2007	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:33:05	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:22:01
2008	Stephen Bayliss (GBR)	08:18:23	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:27:48
2009	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:17:32	Lucie Reed (CZE)	09:16:32
2010	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:23:28	Sonja Tajsich (GER)	09:16:55
2011	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:05:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:33:56
2012	Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP)	08:34:45	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:47:10
2013	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:11:24	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:10:58
2014	Nils Frommhold (GER)	08:26:07	Simone Braendli (SUI)	09:31:54

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:48:17	04:37:12	02:55:59	08:26:07
2	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:49:53	04:41:03	02:57:33	08:32:39
3	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	00:48:27	04:43:34	02:56:59	08:33:19

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Simone Braendli	SUI	00:51:00	05:26:55	03:09:08	09:31:54
2	Lucy Gossage	GBR	00:59:50	05:18:47	03:09:55	09:33:07
3	Jodie Swallow	GBR	00:48:34	05:21:19	03:19:40	09:33:59

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:05:36	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Anton Storm	2009-04-05
Bike	overall	04:19:41	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Run	overall	02:45:48	Gerrit Schellens	2007-03-18
Total	female	08:33:56	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Swim	female	00:47:40	Lucie Reed	2009-04-05
Bike	female	04:45:23	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Run	female	02:52:54	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 02:32.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	-01:19	-05:30	-06:50	00:02	10	-01:19	-05:30	-06:50	00:02
2007	-04:20	-09:38	01:16	-01:19	20	-02:49	-07:34	-02:47	-00:38
2008	16:56	00:25	10:16	01:52	29	03:46	-04:54	01:34	00:12
2009	12:53	01:21	10:04	-01:03	24	06:03	-03:21	03:42	-00:07
2010	08:27	-00:56	07:35	01:33	28	06:31	-02:52	04:28	00:13
2011	12:08	-00:26	12:10	02:27	33	07:27	-02:27	05:45	00:35
2012	-12:53	-09:05	-09:57	02:26	23	04:33	-03:24	03:31	00:51
2013	06:17	-01:51	09:24	02:28	28	04:46	-03:12	04:15	01:03
2014	-15:21	-01:38	-12:46	-01:19	23	02:32	-03:02	02:21	00:47

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 150k$. As a Regional Championship the Melbourne winners will receive an Automatic Qualifier spot for Kona 2015.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	2	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:18:40	08:19:33	00:49:59	04:31:12	02:52:29	3
2	40	Ivan Rana	ESP	08:23:13	08:27:21	00:50:03	04:38:40	02:49:30	15
3	6	Bas Diederen	NED	08:23:18	08:33:25	00:49:38	04:34:26	02:54:14	25
4	4	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:23:32	08:31:05	00:56:29	04:25:37	02:56:26	18
5	33	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:24:09	08:22:10	00:50:45	04:33:39	02:54:45	5
6	5	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:24:39	08:38:47	00:51:32	04:30:27	02:57:40	39
7	1	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:26:37	08:33:41	00:53:01	04:35:17	02:53:19	26
8	18	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:27:52	08:41:19	00:51:29	04:34:52	02:56:30	52
9	3	Bart Aernouts	BEL	08:27:56	08:25:34	00:54:54	04:39:04	02:48:57	8
10	7	Matt Trautman	ZAF	08:28:50	08:37:08	00:50:45	04:35:29	02:57:36	(36)
11	46	TJ Tollakson	USA	08:32:31	08:40:56	00:51:37	04:33:18	03:02:35	51
12	21	Victor Del Corral	ESP	08:33:47	08:34:53	00:57:51	04:40:16	02:50:40	31
13	23	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:34:54	08:38:48	00:55:57	04:35:25	02:58:33	40
14	39	David Plese	SLO	08:35:13	08:42:09	00:56:00	04:39:07	02:55:06	53
15	10	Konstantin Bachor	GER	08:35:26	08:39:59	00:51:55	04:30:49	03:07:42	45
16	13	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	08:35:38	08:45:44	00:50:50	04:34:20	03:05:27	60
17	14	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:36:02	08:46:02	00:49:54	04:41:45	02:59:22	(63)
18	30	Martin Jensen	DEN	08:36:19	08:33:58	00:52:39	04:40:27	02:58:13	(28)
19	43	Boris Stein	GER	08:38:57	08:37:36	00:59:01	04:37:22	02:57:35	37
20	9	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:38:59	08:47:16	00:50:43	04:38:41	03:04:36	72
21	22	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:41:05	08:48:39	00:55:45	04:43:54	02:56:26	80
22	25	Herve Faure	FRA	08:41:14	08:50:38	00:53:30	04:39:59	03:02:45	(85)
23	41	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:43:41	08:56:20	00:56:15	04:46:08	02:56:18	112
24	31	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:45:17	08:48:27	00:55:49	04:41:14	03:03:14	79
25	50	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:45:24	08:49:18	00:56:41	04:44:02	02:59:41	83
26	8	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:45:58	09:04:27	00:51:01	04:45:03	03:04:55	(144)
27	44	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:49:07	08:48:40	00:55:18	04:43:26	03:05:24	81
28	34	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	08:53:38	09:07:11	00:50:11	04:53:59	03:04:28	(153)
29	20	Michael Davidson	ZAF	08:53:50	09:06:57	00:57:52	04:49:39	03:01:19	(151)
30	11	Bertrand Billard	FRA	08:54:43	09:13:31	00:51:01	04:40:45	03:17:57	(186)
31	24	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	08:56:39	09:08:46	00:56:38	04:41:21	03:13:40	167
32	28	Kent Horner	ZAF	08:58:10	09:20:39	00:50:15	04:44:24	03:18:31	218
33	42	Till Schramm	GER	08:58:27	09:34:56	00:58:51	04:41:50	03:12:46	(273)
34	19	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	09:03:59	09:13:32	00:51:41	04:45:25	03:21:53	186
35	27	Hannes Cool	BEL	09:04:01	09:12:51	00:54:31	04:51:57	03:12:33	(186)
36	47	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:11:39	09:46:47	00:55:42	04:42:52	03:28:04	320
37	17	Greg Close	USA	09:13:36	09:19:08	00:59:20	04:59:43	03:09:33	209
38	35	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:15:00	09:36:41	01:05:16	05:01:36	03:03:08	282
39	49	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	09:19:45	09:31:11	00:59:44	04:55:39	03:19:22	(258)
40	12	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	09:42:21	09:55:22	00:59:16	05:03:51	03:34:14	(355)
41	32	Roman Krutina	CZE	10:01:35	10:16:34	00:59:58	05:10:21	03:46:16	(416)
	15	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	16	Will Clarke	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	26	Frederik Flagstad	GRL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	29	Allan Hovda	NOR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	36	David Mcnamee	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	37	Johannes Moldan	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	45	Sylvain Sudrie	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	48	Urs Mueller	SWI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Will Clarke has already announced that he will need some extra time to get in shape for an Ironman.

Martin Jensen hurt his leg sprinting for the finish line in Dubai, and he also won’t be able to start.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	81	Eva Wutti	AUT	09:11:10	09:14:44	01:00:10	04:57:13	03:08:46	6
2	51	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:12:40	09:14:59	00:50:34	04:59:09	03:17:57	7
3	75	Diana Riesler	GER	09:17:53	09:40:35	01:00:33	04:56:17	03:16:03	44
4	52	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:17:55	09:20:20	01:00:26	05:06:23	03:06:07	11
5	54	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:18:41	09:25:40	01:00:44	05:04:15	03:08:41	20
6	60	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:18:50	09:33:00	01:01:13	05:02:39	03:09:58	30
7	38	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	09:20:16	09:24:44	00:53:50	05:04:20	03:17:07	17
8	57	Anja Beranek	GER	09:20:18	09:32:43	00:55:31	05:00:15	03:19:32	(30)
9	79	Sonja Tajsich	GER	09:22:25	09:30:34	01:04:40	05:04:19	03:08:25	26
10	78	Caitlin Snow	USA	09:22:55	09:28:28	00:57:58	05:18:16	03:01:41	21
11	72	Britta Martin	NZL	09:26:12	09:31:11	01:01:54	05:10:32	03:08:47	28
12	74	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:34:11	09:41:14	00:53:01	05:14:44	03:21:26	45
13	63	Astrid Ganzow	GER	09:40:46	09:45:38	01:01:41	05:07:56	03:26:09	57
14	61	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:41:03	09:46:26	00:58:25	05:17:55	03:19:43	58
15	53	Beth Shutt	USA	09:51:17	09:53:13	01:03:54	05:22:48	03:19:35	71
16	55	Stefanie Adam	BEL	09:53:32	10:14:24	00:59:01	05:05:52	03:43:39	(119)
17	67	Jessica Meyers	USA	09:53:33	09:59:15	01:03:31	05:23:45	03:21:17	89
18	80	Kathrin Walther	GER	09:57:39	10:20:34	01:03:13	05:15:02	03:34:24	135
19	70	Maria Lemeseva	RUS	10:00:17	10:07:46	01:11:49	05:23:21	03:20:08	104
20	65	Eleanor Haresign	GBR	10:00:26	10:13:45	01:03:32	05:14:35	03:37:19	(117)
21	56	Anne Basso	FRA	10:01:30	10:27:55	01:00:35	05:24:59	03:30:56	151
22	73	Nina Pekerman	ISR	10:01:41	10:15:52	01:02:38	05:23:07	03:30:56	120
23	58	Svetlana Blazevic	SRB	10:07:28	10:13:53	00:55:03	05:26:56	03:40:29	117
24	69	Heather Leiggi	USA	10:08:20	10:18:55	01:03:18	05:29:42	03:30:20	130
25	62	Amy Forshaw	GBR	10:18:15	10:28:18	01:07:25	05:35:19	03:30:31	152
26	64	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:33:15	10:42:16	01:07:09	05:36:07	03:45:00	161
27	68	Caroline Koll	ZAF	10:55:27	11:07:54	01:02:50	05:55:29	03:52:08	170
28	77	Linda Scattolin	ITA	11:18:34	11:38:55	01:11:19	05:48:29	04:13:46	(175)
	59	Susie Cheetham	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	66	Corina Hengartner	SWI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	71	Caroline Livesey	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	76	Riana Robertson	ZAF	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Linda Scattolin (together with ex-Pro Edith Niederfriniger) has been in a horrible bike crash while training and passed away.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Frederik Van Lierde has to be considered the favorite: He is a very solid athlete, and the only question is what shape he’ll be in this early in the year. Based on previous results, Ivan Rana is his main rival: His recent result in Kona was not what he was looking for, but even after a bad bike leg he still ran a very strong 2:44 marathon.

My expectation is that the race in South Africa will be made interesting by the local athletes that would love to win the title for their home country. Kyle Buckingham was close last year (he finished 2nd to Nils Frommhold), Matt Trautmann seems to be in great shape (he won IM Wales in 2014 and 70.3 South Africa earlier this year), and while James Cunnama has been struggling a bit in the last years, he has the potential for a great performance.

• Frederik Van Lierde: 26% (3-1)
• Ivan Rana: 19% (4-1)
• Michael Weiss: 9% (11-1)
• Kyle Buckingham: 7% (12-1)
• James Cunnama: 6% (15-1)
• Eneko Llanos: 6% (16-1)
• Cyril Viennot: 5% (20-1)
• Matt Trautman: 4% (21-1)
• Victor Del Corral: 2% (45-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of female athletes with very good statistical chances that may not be on top of everybody’s list: Tine Deckers (unbeaten at IM France for years), Diana Riesler (recent winner of IM Malaysia) or Eva Wutti (fast, but often DNFs) have excellent chances to win the race on a good day.

Jodie Swallow has been  working hard to win South Africa, and as she lives and trains a lot in Stellenbosch, she will be the local favorite. Her last results have been very consistent, so this year she could finally take the top spot on the podium.

Linsey Corbin will make life hard for athletes mentioned so far – and she will want to finish better than her fourth place seeding. Lucy Gossage hasn’t had a great Kona last year, but is always very strong at the start of the season – and she was also very close to winning last year. A couple of German athletes – Sonja Tajsich Anja Beranek – are also looking for a great result in South Africa after some injury problems and missing Kona qualifying in 2014, as will Camilla Pedersen (winner of IM Germany 2013).

• Tine Deckers: 26% (3-1)
• Diana Riesler: 19% (4-1)
• Eva Wutti: 16% (5-1)
• Linsey Corbin: 14% (6-1)
• Jodie Swallow: 10% (9-1)
• Lucy Gossage: 5% (21-1)
• Sonja Tajsich: 4% (26-1)
• Anja Beranek: 3% (39-1)