Ironman Switzerland 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMZürichUpdate July 13th: Matt Trautmann tweeted that he is injured and won’t be able to race in Zürich.

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, they are crossed out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Mathias Hecht (SUI)
Stefan Riesen (SUI)
08:26:01
08:16:50
Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31
2014 Boris Stein (GER) 08:33:02 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 09:13:30
2015 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:21:19 Beth Gerdes (USA) 09:21:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:14 04:32:11 02:50:02 08:21:19
2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:50:47 04:33:04 03:00:53 08:28:57
3 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:55:16 04:44:47 02:47:07 08:31:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Beth Gerdes USA 01:00:53 05:13:40 03:01:24 09:21:05
2 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:55:12 05:02:07 03:24:13 09:26:37
3 Mareen Hufe GER 01:01:42 05:10:33 03:18:06 09:35:26

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:27:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2012-07-15
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 09:00:04 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Swim female 00:51:23 Celine Schaerer 2014-07-27
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:00:27 Kristin Moeller 2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 05:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19 42 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19
2006 15:11 01:11 04:45 -00:04 33 05:40 00:48 03:46 -03:41
2007 17:55 -01:00 10:22 01:14 35 09:45 00:12 05:58 -02:03
2008 09:14 -00:09 01:56 02:04 30 of 40 09:37 00:07 04:57 -01:01
2009 12:38 -00:46 07:20 05:08 37 10:14 -00:04 05:26 00:13
2010 07:40 -01:22 06:05 01:48 30 of 38 09:48 -00:17 05:32 00:29
2011 09:22 -02:29 01:22 06:20 20 09:44 -00:36 04:57 01:19
2012 06:43 -03:08 04:25 02:10 31 09:22 -00:55 04:53 01:25
2013 -09:48 -05:12 02:57 -05:29 38 07:14 -01:24 04:40 00:39
2014 00:04 -03:45 05:20 -00:22 28 of 36 06:31 -01:38 04:44 00:33
2015 -07:37 -02:51 00:59 -02:22 24 of 38 05:14 -01:44 04:23 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:18:44 08:28:31 00:53:18 04:29:48 02:50:38 75% +1% -25% (27) 19
2 79 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:19:15 08:36:03 00:48:36 04:34:39 02:50:59 43% +11% -46% (14) (42)
3 73 Timo Bracht GER 08:21:27 08:23:48 00:50:57 04:32:41 02:52:48 83% +8% -8% (26) 10
4 70 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:43 08:25:19 00:52:14 04:34:33 02:52:55 80% +0% -20% (6) 11
5 2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:29:06 08:48:01 00:49:29 04:32:06 03:02:31 49% +24% -27% (11) 80
6 8 Markus Fachbach GER 08:32:26 08:37:06 00:50:59 04:35:16 03:01:12 83% +0% -17% (17) 47
7 74 David Plese SLO 08:34:46 08:41:23 00:53:47 04:38:13 02:57:46 73% +5% -22% (16) 59
8 37 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:37:36 08:44:28 00:55:03 04:38:53 02:58:41 75% +0% -25% (10) 68
9 15 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:38:19 09:16:16 00:49:02 04:47:47 02:56:29 2% +39% -59% (9) 193
10 78 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:38:34 08:47:41 00:48:55 04:36:38 03:08:01 32% +12% -55% (10) 78
11 11 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:39:56 08:48:19 00:49:56 04:37:27 03:07:33 57% +14% -28% (9) 81
12 10 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:41:46 08:57:11 00:51:08 04:38:57 03:06:41 7% +35% -58% (8) 113
13 71 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:41:57 08:58:34 00:51:52 04:53:02 02:52:03 47% +0% -53% (4) (118)
14 32 Darby Thomas FIN 08:42:47 08:56:49 00:59:45 04:41:36 02:56:27 63% +10% -27% (7) 110
15 5 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:43:09 08:58:46 00:54:28 04:44:36 02:59:04 45% +32% -23% (9) 119
16 31 Pascal Ramali GER 08:46:28 09:13:59 01:00:17 04:34:43 03:06:28 27% +0% -73% (3) (184)
17 34 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:47:41 08:53:05 00:49:14 04:45:53 03:07:33 26% +32% -42% (14) 98
18 9 Christian Brader GER 08:48:30 08:59:28 00:57:46 04:47:06 02:58:38 74% +5% -21% (33) 124
19 40 Manuel Kueng SUI 08:49:03 09:06:54 00:47:23 04:30:11 03:26:29 11% +89% -0% (3) (158)
20 18 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:49:48 09:05:52 00:54:33 04:40:02 03:10:13 38% +62% -0% (4) 156
21 6 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:50:14 09:02:37 01:01:30 04:42:04 03:01:41 85% +11% -4% (55) 137
22 39 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:52:18 09:01:13 00:48:49 04:45:10 03:13:19 63% +8% -29% (23) 130
23 35 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:53:30 09:04:38 00:54:52 04:45:22 03:08:16 96% +0% -4% (16) 150
24 36 David Naesvik SWE 08:54:07 09:02:15 00:56:42 04:41:21 03:11:04 77% +0% -23% (13) 135
25 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:57:53 09:03:29 00:56:08 04:39:44 03:17:01 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
26 25 Tomas Mika CZE 08:59:05 09:08:17 00:56:36 04:56:24 03:01:06 84% +16% -0% (5) 161
27 28 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:01:55 09:11:35 00:54:49 04:44:15 03:17:51 56% +16% -28% (13) (171)
28 77 Marcel Bischof GER 09:02:00 09:15:43 00:58:14 04:50:07 03:08:40 83% +17% -0% (13) 190
29 76 Gergö Molnar HUN 09:07:31 09:18:13 00:51:24 04:51:13 03:19:54 42% +0% -58% (7) 197
30 22 Johan Kaerner SWE 09:11:02 09:27:37 01:00:48 04:49:37 03:15:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (221)
31 16 Nicholas Chase USA 09:25:31 09:42:32 00:53:46 04:57:40 03:29:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (257)
32 80 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:27:29 09:42:32 01:02:08 05:00:31 03:19:50 42% +23% -34% (11) 257
33 21 David Jilek CZE 09:27:51 09:39:13 00:59:45 04:57:49 03:25:17 64% +21% -15% (7) 252
34 17 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:28:47 09:43:21 00:53:44 05:03:14 03:26:48 33% +36% -31% (3) (260)
35 30 Lukas Polan CZE 09:40:58 09:56:55 01:04:19 05:05:31 03:26:08 30% +15% -55% (9) 277
36 72 Peter Kotland CZE 09:43:57 09:55:55 01:01:01 05:04:12 03:33:44 54% +26% -21% (21) 274
37 27 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:45:10 10:00:50 00:59:13 05:04:23 03:36:34 22% +10% -68% (10) 283
38 24 Martin Charles FRA 10:05:44 10:23:57 00:54:50 05:14:46 03:51:08 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (295)
39 38 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:07:37 10:52:28 01:14:31 05:00:25 03:47:41 7% +11% -82% (6) (303)
40 13 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 10:31:11 10:56:40 01:05:13 05:21:19 03:59:39 49% +0% -51% (2) (304)
41 23 David Krupicka CZE 10:46:09 10:59:26 01:06:33 05:20:26 04:14:10 100% +0% -0% (2) (304)
42 26 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:28:43 12:09:19 01:13:23 05:44:54 04:25:26 32% +25% -43% (35) 308
12 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Matthias Epping n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jan Hron n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Cyril Pochon FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Richard Westover GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
55 Lauren Capone USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Petr Bednar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 50 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:55:51 09:05:05 00:53:24 04:51:50 03:05:37 71% +0% -29% (6) 2
2 54 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:19:04 09:32:15 00:56:58 05:07:38 03:09:28 33% +31% -36% (5) 35
3 42 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:22:59 09:42:25 00:49:10 05:09:18 03:19:31 58% +0% -42% (4) (53)
4 49 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:28:44 09:39:17 01:03:04 04:59:57 03:20:42 42% +0% -58% (17) 48
5 62 Kristin Moeller GER 09:29:29 09:35:55 01:04:37 05:17:06 03:02:46 83% +15% -2% (17) 41
6 41 Emma Bilham SUI 09:31:01 09:48:12 00:56:03 05:12:25 03:17:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (64)
7 53 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:33:38 09:44:05 01:03:20 05:17:43 03:07:34 55% +27% -18% (14) 59
8 59 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:39:21 09:52:31 00:58:29 05:01:55 03:33:58 59% +13% -29% (11) 74
9 43 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:41:12 09:57:37 00:56:42 05:19:43 03:19:47 30% +23% -46% (6) 87
10 56 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:52:00 09:59:37 00:55:32 05:25:09 03:26:19 65% +0% -35% (11) 91
11 52 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:53:54 10:03:46 01:13:12 05:17:23 03:18:19 100% +0% -0% (12) 97
12 51 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:59:04 10:12:55 01:04:17 05:16:07 03:33:40 56% +25% -19% (4) 116
13 60 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:59:37 10:07:05 01:03:06 05:19:24 03:32:07 68% +0% -32% (7) 102
14 44 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:00:41 10:19:21 01:12:19 05:20:07 03:23:16 70% +0% -30% (5) 129
15 46 Petra Krejcova CZE 10:02:28 10:14:57 01:04:03 05:33:01 03:20:23 100% +0% -0% (2) (118)
16 48 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:12 10:25:39 01:01:26 05:18:33 03:38:14 11% +38% -51% (12) 149
17 47 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:10:42 10:21:50 01:03:21 05:31:15 03:31:06 61% +20% -19% (11) 134
18 58 Nicole Woysch GER 10:18:15 10:54:33 01:00:29 05:24:54 03:47:53 22% +3% -75% (21) (169)
19 61 Jana Candrova CZE 10:18:51 10:36:13 01:07:49 05:26:20 03:39:41 68% +2% -30% (14) 163
45 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
57 Diane Luethi SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

The following graphs show who is in a position to improve their KPR score to move beyond “the bubble” where qualifying comes down to everybody’s results on the last day of racing.

Male Participants

KPR_Zurich:Men

Female Participants

KPR_Zurich_Women

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his good results at the end of 2014, Clemente is the slight statistical favorite, but he’s been struggling lately (including a DNF in Frankfurt). Ronnie Schildknecht has won this race eight times before but he faces strong competition by Timo, Jan and Matt, most of whom still need the Kona points that come with a good finish.

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 26% (3-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 18% (5-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 18% (5-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 8% (11-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

If Daniela decides to race (she’s scheduled to race Roth just a week before), she’ll be the clear favorite. If she’s not racing, the top spot will be wide open.

  • Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 4% (23-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 4% (26-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 4% (27-1)
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