Ironman Western Australia 2016 (Dec 4th) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Crawford (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44
2014 Denis Chevrot (FRA) 08:05:58 Britta Martin (NZL) 08:56:34
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 07:55:58 Sarah Piampiano (USA) 09:03:47

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:50:31 04:08:12 02:52:29 07:55:58
2 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:45 04:28:58 02:54:49 08:16:24
3 Per Bittner GER 00:50:56 04:27:33 02:56:37 08:19:15

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:06:49 04:50:46 03:01:18 09:03:47
2 Mareen Hufe GER 01:06:52 04:47:38 03:10:18 09:09:16
3 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:02:53 04:49:09 03:15:50 09:12:07

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:58 Luke McKenzie 2015-12-06
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:08:12 Luke McKenzie 2015-12-06
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:56:34 Britta Martin 2014-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:44:16 Mareen Hufe 2014-12-07
Run female 02:58:17 Beth Gerdes 2014-12-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32 27 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32
2006 16:01 00:31 15:04 02:55 31 08:57 -01:14 08:28 00:12
2007 23:57 00:43 13:40 04:29 47 13:57 -00:35 10:12 01:37
2008 15:30 -00:07 15:24 00:34 39 14:20 -00:28 11:30 01:22
2009 14:55 01:15 14:35 -04:00 25 14:27 -00:07 12:07 00:17
2010 09:38 00:10 10:09 02:05 24 13:39 -00:04 11:48 00:35
2011 03:58 -00:22 09:00 02:33 27 12:16 -00:07 11:24 00:52
2012 13:06 -01:22 08:48 02:36 26 12:22 -00:16 11:04 01:05
2013 19:46 00:06 15:19 06:32 22 of 30 13:12 -00:14 11:33 01:41
2014 16:05 00:57 17:24 04:16 32 of 48 13:29 -00:07 12:08 01:57
2015 14:58 -02:36 14:05 06:34 15 of 22 13:37 -00:20 12:18 02:22

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:04:53 09:29:07 00:57:00 04:56:07 03:06:46 44% +17% -38% (4) 21
2 1 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:07:36 09:29:36 01:03:02 04:53:07 03:06:28 58% +33% -9% (16) 23
3 4 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:12:21 09:29:28 01:00:18 04:56:37 03:10:27 89% +11% -0% (15) 22
4 3 Mareen Hufe GER 09:13:06 09:34:51 01:00:59 04:50:12 03:16:55 86% +5% -9% (22) 35
5 6 Laura Siddall GBR 09:14:33 09:37:36 00:58:10 04:53:55 03:17:28 46% +44% -10% (8) 39
6 9 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:20:05 09:36:46 01:02:46 05:03:40 03:08:39 100% +0% -0% (7) 36
7 5 Lisa Roberts USA 09:20:32 09:32:49 01:04:35 05:06:29 03:04:28 80% +3% -18% (17) 30
8 11 Vanessa Murray NZL 09:41:20 10:02:21 00:55:25 05:16:07 03:24:48 100% +0% -0% (2) (77)
9 8 Kym Coogan AUS 09:43:43 10:07:34 00:57:09 05:08:13 03:33:21 61% +0% -39% (4) 86
10 7 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:08:07 10:31:32 01:05:26 05:07:01 03:50:41 46% +30% -25% (6) 127
11 14 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:47 10:34:10 01:07:23 05:19:05 03:40:19 46% +4% -50% (10) 128
12 10 Tracy Morrison AUS 10:14:51 10:37:22 01:02:48 05:33:59 03:33:04 100% +0% -0% (2) (132)
12 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
15 Alise Selsmark AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
16 Georgia Stott AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 22 Andy Potts USA 08:11:34 08:22:32 00:47:30 04:25:53 02:53:12 100% +0% -0% (15) 8
2 39 Nick Kastelein AUS 08:15:02 08:38:03 00:48:13 04:22:52 02:58:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (51)
3 20 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:16:31 08:35:24 00:46:46 04:30:08 02:54:37 58% +8% -35% (10) 38
4 24 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:19:48 08:30:38 00:51:26 04:37:59 02:45:24 72% +13% -15% (8) 27
5 25 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:20:09 08:44:53 00:45:55 04:22:30 03:06:45 10% +24% -66% (8) 74
6 21 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:23:35 08:38:21 00:48:38 04:31:26 02:58:31 54% +1% -45% (11) 52
7 47 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:25:51 08:48:47 00:50:40 04:33:06 02:57:05 53% +2% -45% (20) (88)
8 26 Michael Fox AUS 08:26:05 08:49:04 00:47:26 04:33:24 03:00:15 35% +65% -0% (2) (89)
9 23 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:26:33 08:47:09 00:50:40 04:37:08 02:53:45 58% +0% -42% (16) 83
10 31 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:27:53 08:47:20 00:48:19 04:39:09 02:55:25 24% +27% -49% (9) 85
11 56 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:29:19 08:50:39 00:49:22 04:28:57 03:06:00 49% +16% -35% (13) 94
12 46 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:32:01 08:49:51 00:51:35 04:44:32 02:50:54 48% +0% -52% (6) 91
13 27 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:32:21 08:46:29 00:50:36 04:26:57 03:09:48 34% +6% -59% (11) 81
14 29 Matt Burton AUS 08:35:24 09:15:10 00:54:12 04:28:35 03:07:38 21% +0% -79% (6) (172)
15 37 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:37:12 08:55:55 00:53:44 04:34:18 03:04:11 54% +18% -28% (10) 110
16 51 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:37:52 09:00:05 00:53:55 04:32:21 03:06:36 54% +9% -38% (15) 126
17 57 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:40:49 09:00:42 00:50:01 04:47:07 02:58:41 72% +18% -10% (12) 131
18 28 Simon Billeau FRA 08:42:30 09:08:55 00:53:52 04:30:12 03:13:26 36% +0% -64% (18) 155
19 36 Patrick Evoe USA 08:46:18 08:56:44 00:56:00 04:35:40 03:09:38 91% +3% -6% (24) 113
20 35 Karol Dzalaj SVK 08:46:26 09:13:24 00:53:51 04:35:58 03:11:38 70% +11% -18% (13) (167)
21 49 Carl Read NZL 08:47:14 09:05:19 00:53:05 04:49:36 02:59:32 56% +14% -31% (9) (147)
22 41 Luke Martin AUS 08:47:33 09:07:59 00:52:50 04:44:04 03:05:39 71% +0% -29% (4) (151)
23 55 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:07 09:04:10 00:56:32 04:41:51 03:05:44 66% +1% -33% (95) 145
24 54 Graeme Stewart GBR 08:49:43 09:13:37 00:54:24 04:41:46 03:08:33 33% +25% -42% (14) 168
25 52 Pavel Simko SVK 08:51:06 09:24:30 00:52:17 04:34:25 03:19:24 47% +0% -53% (2) (196)
26 42 Levi Maxwell AUS 08:56:09 09:21:04 00:54:06 04:48:08 03:08:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (187)
27 50 Till Schramm GER 09:01:00 09:24:15 00:56:06 04:43:02 03:16:52 5% +54% -41% (7) 194
28 38 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:03:56 09:29:17 01:05:53 04:49:15 03:03:49 42% +0% -58% (10) 208
29 48 Matthew Pellow AUS 09:06:37 09:32:01 00:47:05 04:41:53 03:32:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (211)
30 40 Michael Louys BEL 09:09:45 09:40:34 01:03:37 04:45:24 03:15:44 52% +8% -41% (11) 229
31 53 Leigh Stabryla AUS 09:09:54 09:35:27 00:52:28 05:08:57 03:03:29 51% +0% -49% (2) (219)
32 30 Allister Caird AUS 09:19:17 09:48:03 00:56:36 04:46:23 03:31:18 31% +0% -69% (3) (245)
33 34 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:31:43 09:55:40 01:08:32 04:59:27 03:18:45 57% +20% -23% (11) 255
34 45 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:28:24 12:01:54 01:12:38 05:41:26 04:29:21 30% +25% -45% (39) 284
32 Giles Clayton AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Derek Cross AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Bryce McMaster NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

  • Sarah Piampiano: 38% (2-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 33% (2-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 15% (6-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 8% (11-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 5% (19-1)

Male Race Participants

  • Andy Potts: 69% (1-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 10% (9-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 10% (9-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 5% (19-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 3% (36-1)
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