Ironman Western Australia 2015 (Dec 6th) – Predictions

Update Dec 1st: The latest startlist shows withdrawals by Simon Billeau, Chris Legh, Giles Clayton, Sarah Crowley, Kathrin Walter and Allison Fitch.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Mitchell Anderson (AUS)	08:27:35	Charlotte Paul (AUS)	09:47:27
2006	Jason Shortis (AUS)	08:03:55	Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN)	09:10:00
2007	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:05:58	Charlotte Paul (AUS)	09:00:54
2008	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:06	Gina Crawford (NZL)	08:59:24
2009	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:13:59	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:16:52
2010	Courtney Ogden (AUS)	08:14:01	Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)	09:19:44
2011	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:12:39	Michelle Bremer (NZL)	09:25:38
2012	Jimmy Johnsen (DEN)	08:29:06	Britta Martin (NZL)	09:13:00
2013	Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA)	08:08:16	Elizabeth Lyles (USA)	08:59:44
2014	Denis Chevrot (FRA)	08:05:58	Britta Martin (NZL)	08:56:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Denis Chevrot	FRA	00:46:23	04:26:42	02:49:11	08:05:58
2	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:47:04	04:27:50	02:53:37	08:12:11
3	Per Bittner	GER	00:48:36	04:26:20	02:56:29	08:14:37

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Britta Martin	NZL	00:56:39	04:55:37	03:00:00	08:56:34
2	Mareen Hufe	GER	00:58:02	04:44:16	03:14:13	09:00:21
3	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:52:13	04:58:27	03:07:27	09:02:11

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:03:55	Jason Shortis	2006-12-03
Swim	overall	00:44:42	Pete Jacobs	2007-12-01
Bike	overall	04:18:07	Mitchell Anderson	2006-12-03
Run	overall	02:43:48	Robert Thomas	2007-12-01
Total	female	08:56:34	Britta Martin	2014-12-07
Swim	female	00:48:25	Tereza Macel	2007-12-01
Bike	female	04:44:16	Mareen Hufe	2014-12-07
Run	female	02:58:17	Beth Gerdes	2014-12-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:05.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	01:54	-02:58	01:52	-02:32	27	01:54	-02:58	01:52	-02:32
2006	16:01	00:31	15:04	02:55	31	08:57	-01:14	08:28	00:12
2007	23:57	00:43	13:40	04:29	47	13:57	-00:35	10:12	01:37
2008	15:30	-00:07	15:24	00:34	39	14:20	-00:28	11:30	01:22
2009	14:55	01:15	14:35	-04:00	25	14:27	-00:07	12:07	00:17
2010	09:38	00:10	10:09	02:05	24	13:39	-00:04	11:48	00:35
2011	03:58	-00:22	09:00	02:33	27	12:16	-00:07	11:24	00:52
2012	13:06	-01:22	08:49	02:36	26	12:22	-00:16	11:04	01:05
2013	16:04	00:07	15:16	06:41	22 of 30	12:47	-00:14	11:32	01:42
2014	15:49	00:58	17:35	04:11	32 of 48	13:05	-00:07	12:09	01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	7	David Dellow	AUS	08:10:47	08:29:29	00:47:44	04:24:31	02:53:31	17
2	1	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:17:33	08:49:41	00:47:14	04:32:30	02:52:49	82
3	2	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:17:47	08:42:37	00:48:42	04:22:40	03:01:25	58
4	5	Christian Kramer	GER	08:21:58	08:41:55	00:48:18	04:30:25	02:58:14	56
5	17	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:23:36	08:40:24	00:50:48	04:32:17	02:55:32	50
6	3	Per Bittner	GER	08:23:51	08:41:08	00:49:24	04:30:21	02:59:06	54
7	18	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:29:26	08:53:02	00:51:28	04:37:45	02:55:13	95
8	4	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	08:32:25	08:42:32	00:51:33	04:39:24	02:56:27	57
9	15	Jarmo Hast	FIN	08:34:52	08:47:44	00:50:53	04:40:35	02:58:24	74
10	6	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:37:47	08:59:12	00:53:41	04:28:49	03:10:16	123
11	10	Tim Reed	AUS	08:38:50	08:54:38	00:47:55	04:32:21	03:13:33	(107)
12	20	Todd Skipworth	AUS	08:44:16	09:10:09	00:45:19	04:38:09	03:15:48	176
13	21	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:45:32	09:05:34	00:55:39	04:41:11	03:03:42	157
14	9	Chris Legh	AUS	08:51:13	09:04:33	00:53:34	04:38:36	03:14:02	148
15	19	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	08:51:35	09:11:56	00:47:55	04:37:26	03:21:13	(185)
16	11	Johan Borg	AUS	08:58:02	09:29:12	00:55:48	04:42:27	03:14:48	251
17	16	Darren Jenkins	AUS	09:02:58	09:18:40	01:06:29	04:46:58	03:04:31	217
	12	Giles Clayton	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	13	Allister Caird	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Both Sarah Crowley and Kathrin Walther have said they won’t be racing in Busselton after doing IM Malaysia.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Exp. Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	31	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:05:23	09:16:23	00:58:39	04:51:07	03:10:37	7
2	33	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:13:55	09:34:18	01:02:25	04:56:40	03:09:49	34
3	32	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:15:10	09:37:44	00:59:25	04:50:40	03:20:05	40
4	38	Rebecca Preston	AUS	09:24:41	09:38:28	00:57:52	05:05:09	03:16:41	43
5	37	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:25:44	09:46:53	01:01:41	05:02:54	03:16:08	58
6	35	Sarah Crowley	AUS	09:32:35	09:53:11	00:57:42	05:02:29	03:27:24	(74)
7	40	Alison Fitch	AUS	09:35:26	09:50:08	00:53:16	05:06:26	03:30:44	(66)
8	36	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:36:04	09:58:50	00:56:08	05:07:12	03:27:44	84
9	39	Kathrin Walther	GER	09:41:10	10:15:58	01:00:32	05:04:51	03:30:47	123
	41	Georgie Rutherford	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner Denis Chevrot is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition in David Dellow who always races well when he’s fit. Luke McKenzie and Christian Kramer want to close the year with a good result after a DNF and a 34st in Kona. Per Bittner is working to qualify for Kona 2016, he already has a 3rd in Barcelona in his KPR total.

• David Dellow: 34% (2-1)
• Denis Chevrot: 24% (3-1)
• Luke McKenzie: 19% (4-1)
• Christian Kramer: 10% (9-1)
• Per Bittner: 6% (16-1)
• Courtney Ogden: 6% (16-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is the clear favorite, but she has been racing a lot even after declining her Kona slot. Her main challengers are Sarah Piampiano (7th in Kona – maybe also not the freshest after a long season of racing) and Mareen Hufe (last year’s second who also raced Kona).

• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 57% (1-1)
• Sarah Piampiano: 25% (3-1)
• Mareen Hufe: 11% (8-1)
• Rebecca Preston: 4% (24-1)
• Dimity-Lee Duke: 2% (65-1)