IM Texas 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rasmus Henning DNK 08:22:30 08:27:56 10
2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:25:23 08:30:51 14
3 Paul Amey GBR 08:28:28 08:33:58 20
4 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:29:13 08:34:44 24
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:36:12 08:41:47 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:39:47 08:45:24 57
7 Jozsef Major HUN 08:42:40 08:48:19 80
8 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:54 08:51:35 93
9 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:53:14 08:59:00 129
10 Christian Brader GER 08:55:29 09:01:17 146
11 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:22 09:07:13 175
12 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:20 09:08:12 183
13 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:02:26 09:08:18 185
14 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:08:47 09:14:43 228
15 Erich Kunz SUI 09:11:52 09:17:50 259
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:17:51 09:23:53 308
17 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:18:22 09:24:24 313
18 Olly Piggin CAN 09:19:17 09:25:20 316
19 Anthony Toth CAN 09:24:31 09:30:38 361
20 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:27:47 09:33:56 381
21 Mac Brown USA 09:38:31 09:44:47 457
22 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:21 10:13:55 647
23 Jim Lamastra   n/a unrated n/a
24 Robert Wade   n/a unrated n/a
25 Benoit Bourguet   n/a unrated n/a
26 Jonathan Shearon   n/a unrated n/a
27 Alex Weber   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:28 09:21:29 7
2 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:20:26 09:26:30 10
3 Amy Marsh USA 09:24:46 09:30:53 20
4 Caitlin Snow USA 09:32:12 09:38:23 35
5 Corinne Abraham   09:43:36 09:49:55 59
6 Caroline Gregory USA 10:01:51 10:08:22 115
7 Charisa Wernick USA 10:05:46 10:12:19 133
8 Sarah Piampiano   10:06:25 10:12:59 135
9 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:14:07 10:20:46 163
10 Cindy Lewis   10:20:53 10:27:36 182
11 Tami Ritchie   10:34:55 10:41:47 211
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:52:52 10:59:56 242
13 Sandra Soldan   n/a unrated n/a
14 Jackie Pearce   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Rasmus Henning (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:35:53 08:37:26 08:27:56 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:10:58 08:21:54 08:24:31 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:41:18 08:42:22 08:25:31 23
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 07:52:36 08:09:00 08:15:32 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:28:17 08:23:41 08:23:41 5

Results for Jordan Rapp (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:28:09 08:31:56 08:30:51 1
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:16:45 08:27:49 08:30:31 4
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:13:35 08:22:28 08:31:27 1
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:25:13 08:29:07 08:34:37 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:19:45 08:26:17 08:37:18 3
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 08:35:04 08:38:16 08:44:29 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 08:51:32 08:51:56 08:51:56 5

Results for Paul Amey (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:01:29 08:13:32 08:33:58 2
IM France 2011-06-26 08:47:04 08:50:58 08:45:48 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:27:20 08:33:58 08:40:17 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:48:58 08:46:49 08:46:49 16

Results for Maxim Kriat (UKR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:10:43 08:30:27 08:34:44 2
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:26:51 08:42:21 08:42:21 2

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:30:26 08:43:58 08:41:47 3
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:32:03 08:32:16 08:41:27 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:45:36 08:46:47 08:43:01 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:28:53 08:36:23 08:42:17 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:29 08:32:48 08:43:20 13
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:11:56 08:28:58 08:45:14 5
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:08:03 09:10:50 08:48:30 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:34:02 08:31:56 08:43:22 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:56:33 08:55:23 08:46:13 3
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:42:47 08:45:29 08:43:26 3
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:32:47 08:45:10 08:42:38 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:54:16 08:50:20 08:41:29 33
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 08:26:01 08:37:45 08:36:15 1
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:32:14 08:34:28 08:34:28 3

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:16:44 08:29:10 08:45:24 4
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:41:09 08:45:02 08:48:58 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:38:40 08:44:13 08:49:59 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:42 08:43:46 08:51:48 26
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:39 08:29:39 08:54:40 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:36:38 08:49:04 09:04:18 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:02:07 09:02:31 09:12:23 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:34:05 09:35:59 09:16:48 16
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:14:42 09:13:43 09:02:36 10
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:36:06 08:47:02 08:47:02 11

Results for Jozsef Major (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:39:52 08:41:26 08:48:19 19
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:28:15 08:54:16 08:49:09 6
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:24:17 08:29:41 08:48:31 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:42:25 08:52:40 08:51:08 9
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:26:15 08:37:32 08:50:55 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:40:46 08:41:50 08:53:02 22
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:16:04 09:10:38 08:55:04 9
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:38:37 08:59:30 08:52:07 20
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:21:34 08:28:07 08:50:48 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:08:12 09:05:58 08:54:44 35
IM France 2008-06-22 08:57:45 09:04:33 08:52:28 7
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 08:34:19 08:37:31 08:49:44 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:51:44 08:51:25 08:53:04 22
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:40:01 08:52:35 08:53:35 3
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:42:42 08:45:36 08:53:59 5
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:48:17 08:55:41 08:58:59 7
IM France 2006-06-24 08:54:42 09:02:39 09:02:39 4

Results for Justin Daerr (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:18:02 08:38:04 08:51:35 3
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 08:34:35 08:44:10 08:53:27 3
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:29:44 08:35:11 08:54:51 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:08:12 09:09:19 08:58:01 45
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:05:09 09:09:43 08:56:15 4
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 08:38:19 08:38:50 08:53:56 2
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:48:18 09:04:28 08:56:34 11
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:59:06 08:57:14 08:55:00 6
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:47:47 08:53:28 08:54:29 3
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:40:10 08:46:58 08:54:43 11
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:37:34 08:44:16 08:57:02 5
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:40:25 08:55:49 09:01:59 10
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:00:21 09:00:45 09:04:42 11
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:05:48 09:13:27 09:07:33 15
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:57:28 08:59:41 08:59:41 8

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:45:51 08:59:01 08:59:00 22
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:35:30 08:58:58 08:58:58 13

Results for Christian Brader (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:06:09 09:18:32 09:01:17 7
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:08:19 09:08:33 08:58:54 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:33:43 08:34:46 08:57:30 16
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:41 08:40:12 09:00:43 2
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:25:30 08:32:57 09:17:24 4
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 10:23:03 10:44:40 09:24:20 24
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:14:42 09:09:17 09:09:42 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:57:39 08:52:47 09:09:47 26
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:56:35 08:55:59 09:13:25 2
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:21:47 09:18:47 09:17:49 12
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:03:56 10:07:00 09:17:31 20
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:50:08 08:47:58 08:55:53 19
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:58:10 08:57:00 09:00:45 4
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:51:09 09:05:50 09:05:50 12

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:19 08:42:04 09:07:13 12
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:51 08:45:26 09:12:08 23
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:59:31 09:03:32 09:18:23 7
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:26:26 09:28:34 09:22:43 9
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:08:55 09:20:24 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:21:29 09:27:19 20
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:33:44 09:33:44 13

Results for Brandon Marsh (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:45:43 08:58:55 09:08:12 7
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:50:47 09:02:36 09:10:45 12
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:13:52 09:16:04 09:12:51 12
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:07:45 09:14:14 09:11:49 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:42:41 08:58:40 09:10:43 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:14:41 09:12:46 09:17:45 9
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:16:44 09:24:01 09:24:01 26

Results for Balazs Csoke (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:16:44 09:18:24 09:08:18 32
IM Korea 2011-07-03 08:48:21 08:55:01 09:05:50 1
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:43:06 08:54:46 09:08:59 10
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:47:46 08:58:07 09:14:20 12
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:57:19 09:08:20 09:22:39 12
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:21:19 09:34:50 09:35:04 16
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:21:53 09:35:28 09:35:28 16

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 10:54:44 10:10:07 09:14:43 9
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:01:18 09:14:53 09:10:08 12
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:41:48 08:54:52 09:09:45 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:49:01 08:50:36 09:11:01 26
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:23:54 09:14:43 09:12:53 7
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:54:20 09:06:21 09:12:42 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:53:57 09:08:06 09:13:21 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:53:07 09:13:45 09:13:57 10
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:04:02 09:16:10 09:13:58 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 08:59:38 09:13:41 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:26:21 09:15:36 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:00:43 09:13:55 8
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:49:42 08:57:30 09:16:15 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:43:51 08:54:35 09:20:06 8
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:54:57 09:12:13 09:26:39 19
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:54:13 09:07:05 09:31:31 12
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:56:20 09:13:48 09:39:54 20
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:00:35 09:58:10 09:48:55 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 09:49:54 09:45:52 31
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:34:59 09:37:16 09:44:16 14
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:19:56 09:32:55 09:48:23 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 10:03:46 10:08:48 10:08:48 24

Results for Erich Kunz (SUI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:12:03 09:25:52 09:17:50 35
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:55:08 09:06:06 09:06:06 11

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:16:00 09:11:02 09:23:53 7
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:27:13 08:47:37 09:26:29 8
IM France 2011-06-26 09:26:26 09:30:37 09:35:36 13
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 09:58:20 09:36:56 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 09:00:06 09:29:30 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:47:20 09:42:10 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 09:49:23 09:39:07 17
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:25:00 09:28:16 09:28:16 16

Results for Toby Radcliffe (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:32:49 09:34:37 09:24:24 9
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:04:24 09:15:32 09:22:44 8
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:01:17 09:13:22 09:24:05 13
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:01:02 09:18:06 09:26:18 19
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:25:28 09:32:10 09:28:08 6
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:12:44 09:22:41 09:27:04 18
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:33:49 09:30:35 09:28:16 11
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:05:41 09:24:52 09:27:30 24
IM UK 2008-09-07 09:30:36 09:28:59 09:28:28 6
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:15:21 09:21:18 09:28:11 13
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:16:25 09:27:52 09:32:45 21
IM Austria 2005-07-03 09:41:28 09:41:28 09:41:28 28

Results for Olly Piggin (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:22:24 09:27:40 09:25:20 9
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:18:22 09:35:59 09:24:48 25
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:08:15 09:16:18 09:22:10 16
IM St. George 2010-05-01 11:59:16 11:52:15 09:23:51 25
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:38:02 09:42:52 09:23:51 13
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:49:11 09:07:47 09:18:57 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:15:39 09:19:39 09:22:00 6
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:09:58 09:17:22 09:22:46 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:17:56 09:18:21 09:25:06 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:33:03 09:34:57 09:29:04 15
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:22:36 09:21:36 09:21:36 13

Results for Anthony Toth (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:46:57 08:58:41 09:30:38 10
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:49:44 08:57:30 09:37:59 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:42:01 10:36:12 09:49:05 72
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:02:45 09:06:56 09:36:21 9
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:25:11 09:32:34 09:46:47 31
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:28:22 09:35:44 09:52:26 24
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:59:02 10:01:01 10:02:16 21
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:04:21 10:03:16 10:03:10 22
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:05:22 10:03:01 10:03:01 24

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2012-04-29 10:29:36 09:46:42 09:33:56 8
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:53:56 09:07:18 09:31:35 26
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:45:27 09:06:35 09:36:17 14
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:30:44 10:32:43 09:43:19 13
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:08 09:36:42 09:28:50 25
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:25:52 09:28:53 09:26:27 8
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:18:10 09:22:50 09:25:29 9
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:23:27 09:33:35 09:27:08 24
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:17:01 09:20:14 09:20:14 13

Results for Mac Brown (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:08:14 09:09:58 09:44:47 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:14:12 10:15:27 09:57:01 55
IM Florida 2009-11-07 10:08:21 10:26:58 09:50:13 21
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:11:09 09:09:15 09:35:42 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:19:51 10:18:30 09:51:48 24
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:24:31 09:26:23 09:31:01 13
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:36:45 09:37:12 09:37:12 3

Results for Sergio Quezada (MEX)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:27:31 09:41:46 10:13:55 23
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 10:29:11 10:31:33 10:27:32 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:55:32 10:49:08 10:25:02 24
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:02:53 10:07:32 10:06:23 29
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:05:29 10:04:21 10:04:21 21

Results for Jim Lamastra ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Robert Wade ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Benoit Bourguet ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jonathan Shearon ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Alex Weber ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mary Beth Ellis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:34:06 09:35:50 09:21:29 15
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:03:13 09:07:16 09:16:25 1
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:18:55 09:31:35 09:21:07 1
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:43:34 09:10:22 09:10:22 1

Results for Kathleen Calkins ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:12:40 09:26:30 09:26:30 7

Results for Amy Marsh (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 09:11:36 09:26:13 09:30:53 2
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:07:49 09:29:01 09:32:23 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:28:19 09:29:29 09:33:53 11
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:27:30 09:32:15 09:36:31 1
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:43:59 09:41:58 09:41:58 1

Results for Caitlin Snow (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:18:11 09:19:52 09:38:23 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:29:18 09:34:38 09:42:28 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:26:42 09:27:51 09:44:26 8
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:44:18 09:49:11 09:48:45 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:07:26 10:01:30 09:48:37 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:51:59 09:46:38 09:43:00 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:41:21 09:40:42 09:40:52 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:43:27 09:41:04 09:41:04 12

Results for Corinne Abraham ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:41:21 09:49:55 09:49:55 3

Results for Caroline Gregory (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:50:44 10:05:31 10:08:22 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 10:05:53 10:11:34 10:11:34 4

Results for Charisa Wernick (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:22:37 09:36:42 10:12:19 10
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 10:07:30 10:19:25 10:32:24 7
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:07:19 10:09:44 10:36:44 5
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:13:07 10:18:15 10:49:07 8
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:35:13 10:39:48 11:13:26 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 11:13:10 11:15:24 11:39:02 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 12:09:56 12:10:30 12:10:30 22

Results for Sarah Piampiano ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:57:58 10:12:59 10:12:59 7

Results for Marilyn McDonald (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:06:47 10:18:05 10:20:46 7
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 10:42:55 10:46:55 10:22:09 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 09:59:40 10:18:44 10:16:33 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:09:36 10:10:03 10:15:57 9
IM France 2007-06-24 10:15:23 10:24:28 10:18:00 5
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:54:31 10:39:18 10:14:48 10
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 09:56:50 09:59:26 09:58:54 2
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:00:39 09:58:19 09:58:19 5

Results for Cindy Lewis ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:04:14 10:15:30 10:27:36 6
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:45:56 10:12:36 10:32:34 8
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:34:00 10:37:23 10:45:35 6
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:53:06 10:51:41 10:54:05 8
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:42 10:57:11 10:57:11 20

Results for Tami Ritchie ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:26:04 10:41:47 10:41:47 12

Results for Amanda McKenzie (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:24 11:02:04 10:59:56 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:33:12 10:53:11 10:59:17 11
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:41:45 10:45:27 11:01:08 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:31:04 11:06:15 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:21:48 11:18:28 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:01:52 11:16:50 13
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 10:56:43 11:27:58 19
IM UK 2005-08-21 12:41:57 12:23:43 12:23:43 8

Results for Sandra Soldan ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jackie Pearce ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Australia 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The field for IM Australia was pretty small – not much of a surprise with all the attention (and points and money) that IM Melbourne was getting. We had only 9 pro athletes finishing the race. The adjustment was at 9:26 – a quicker race than in the past, but still in line with the last years (new course rating of 4:41, mainly as a result of slower results in the earlier years).

Male Results

Paul Ambrose won the race leading from start to finish, but he faced a strong run by Tim Berkel who managed to make the race a bit more interesting towards the end:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:18 04:31:25 02:57:12 08:17:38 08:45:00
2 Tim Berkel AUS 00:48:49 04:42:04 02:47:20 08:21:11 08:41:58
3 Jason Shortis AUS 00:50:28 04:53:51 02:51:57 08:40:02 08:47:26
4 Leon Griffin AUS 00:48:53 04:48:26 03:15:26 08:55:54 08:53:12
5 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 00:51:46 05:10:03 03:18:59 09:24:21 09:08:08
6 Dan Brown PHI 00:56:46 05:42:34 06:44:37 13:29:04 08:48:41

Female Results

The three women came off the bike very close together, and Aussie Michelle Mitchell put in a soli 3:08 marathon to win the race:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Michelle Mitchell AUS 00:51:48 05:29:57 03:08:38 09:34:57 09:32:06
2 Nicole Ward AUS 00:51:50 05:28:57 03:20:47 09:44:40 09:54:22
3 Hillary Biscay USA 00:50:40 05:29:13 03:34:04 09:58:19 10:03:55

IM St. George 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions on race were so hard that they resulted in very slow finishing times. In fact they were so slow that my “normal” calculation methods didn’t work. (Usually I only look at athletes within half an hour of their expected finish times to calculate the race adjustment. This time there were only two athletes which would have resulted in an inappropriate adjustment.) After some fiddling around, I ended up with an adjustment of –36:48, meaning that the finishing times were more than half an hour slower compared to a “neutral” course (such as IM Hawaii). This is the lowest number I have ever seen – and it will probably stay that way for quite some time. But as this is the last time that St. George was run as a full Ironman, we will not be able to see if this year’s results were a fluke or typical of the conditions in Utah.

Male Results

On the men’s side, Ben Hoffman won the race on the run:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:44 05:10:01 03:01:24 09:07:04 09:25:07
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:52:42 05:10:35 03:18:23 09:25:58 09:17:45
3 Axel Zeebroek BEL 00:51:22 05:26:52 03:12:53 09:35:33 09:28:58
4 Thomas Gerlach   00:59:19 05:33:54 03:12:14 09:49:00 10:43:39
5 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:04:09 05:48:41 02:55:37 09:52:03 10:00:58
6 Ernst Moser AUT 01:04:52 06:45:00 03:16:58 10:04:07 09:43:34
7 Adam O’Meara CAN 00:58:47 05:51:26 03:13:44 10:08:10 10:15:40
8 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:58:47 06:06:57 03:20:21 10:29:36 10:10:32
9 Mike Schifferle SWI 01:04:31 06:30:15 03:13:28 10:54:44 09:47:38
10 Heath Thurston USA 00:51:18 06:24:25 03:45:13 11:07:34 10:46:54

Maik Twelsiek finished the bike together with Ben Hoffman, but then had to let him go on the run, Chris MacDonald even had to “pull the pin” on the run and DNF’d, leaving the last place on the podium for Axel Zeebroek.

Female Results

On the female side, “MBK” lead the race from wire to wire in a very convincing fashion, almost posting the fastest times on each of the segments:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:52:42 05:57:14 03:18:23 10:12:59 10:16:41
2 Jessie Donavan USA 01:18:51 05:55:24 03:18:58 10:37:30 10:18:28
3 Uli Bromme USA 01:09:10 06:10:21 03:29:40 10:53:20 10:43:21
4 Gillian Clayton   01:34:00 06:20:12 03:15:13 11:15:38 n/a
5 Erin Spitler   01:19:37 06:07:22 03:45:30 11:16:42 11:05:07
6 Erin Young   01:09:11 06:56:04 03:40:01 11:52:35 n/a

IM St. George 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

St. George has been run twice as an Ironman (2010 and 2011), and it has just been announced that it will become a 70.3. after this year. So this is the last year for athletes to post a course record. Currently these stand at 8:32:03 (posted by last year’s winner Mathias Hecht) and 9:30:33 (also from last year by Heather Wurtele). One chance to go down in history!

St. George is a slow course (lots of hills, especially on the run) with a course rating of –2:33. It is a 2.000 points race (and in North America), so the field is a bit larger and deeper than IM Australia.

Male Participants

Last year’s second, Maik Twelsiek is back and will aim to win another Ironman.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:44:37 08:42:09 42
2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:50:29 08:48:00 74
3 Ben Hoffman USA 08:51:33 08:49:03 84
4 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:55:10 08:52:39 97
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 09:01:31 08:58:58 127
6 Ernst Moser AUT 09:08:52 09:06:17 173
7 Matthew Russell USA 09:09:47 09:07:12 175
8 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:12:42 09:10:06 195
9 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:25:15 09:22:36 299
10 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:06 09:29:25 346
11 Billy Edwards USA 09:32:11 09:29:30 350
12 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:34:16 09:31:34 372
13 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:39:05 09:36:22 395
14 Logan Franks USA 09:58:06 09:55:17 524
15 Thomas Gerlach   10:05:25 10:02:34 570
16 Heath Thurston USA 10:08:28 10:05:37 592
17 Dantley Young USA 10:08:44 10:05:52 594
18 Richard Wygand BRA 10:52:21 10:49:17 770
19 Kirk Nelson USA 12:25:14 12:21:44 858
20 Monte Still   n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Maik Twelsiek: 47%
  • Ben Hoffman: 22%
  • Chris McDonald: 15%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 10%

“Maiki” is a very solid competitor who rarely has a day off, lets hope he overcame his DNF in Abu Dhabi (apparently, he had problems with his bike position there). But I’m sure that Ben and Chris will make his life as hard as possible.

Female Participants

Here are the entries in the women’s race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:39:36 09:36:53 30
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:40:02 09:37:19 31
3 Jessie Donavan USA 09:41:43 09:38:59 36
4 Jessica Smith USA 09:51:54 09:49:07 57
5 Uli Bromme USA 10:05:07 10:02:17 89
6 Jackie Arendt USA 10:07:55 10:05:04 100
7 Erin Spitler USA 10:25:36 10:22:40 170
8 Trish Deim USA n/a unrated n/a
9 Gillian Clayton CAN n/a unrated n/a
10 Erin Young USA n/a unrated n/a

Even if their rankings are quite close, “MBK” has a better chance of winning:

  • Meredith Kessler: 43%
  • Mackenzie Madison: 37%
  • Jessie Donavan: 11%

IM Australia 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Ironman Australia does not draw a big field – no surprise for a 1.000-points race. It has a course rating of 3:53, but has seen adjustments around 8 minutes in the last years, so the course can be quick. The course records are held by Chris McCormack (8:20:41 in 2006) and Chrissie Wellington (8:57:10 in 2009).

Last year, we had two “big names” win the race: Pete Jacobs in 8:29:28 and Caroline Steffen in 9:29:54. After all, Australia is a nice location and well placed in the year to prepare for Kona once qualifying is out of the way.

Male Participants

 

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:47:24 08:51:13 91
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:50:30 08:54:20 106
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:57 08:56:48 115
4 Dan Brown PHI 08:54:13 08:58:05 124
5 Leon Griffin AUS 08:58:46 09:02:40 150
6 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:13:52 09:17:52 259
7 Scott Defilippis USA 09:19:49 09:23:52 306

Looking at the winning odds, it ‘s going to be a three way race:

  • Paul Ambrose: 36%
  • Tim Berkel: 36%
  • Jason Shortis: 16%

Female Participants

The field on the women’s side is even smaller:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:38:05 09:42:16 42
2 Kat Baker AUS 09:58:22 10:02:42 91
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:34 10:04:55 99
4 Hillary Biscay USA 10:10:14 10:14:39 140

All athletes have a chance to win, but Michelle Mitchell is the clear favorite:

  • Michelle Mitchell: 57%
  • Nicole Ward: 17%
  • Hillary Biscay: 16%
  • Kat Baker: 10%

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