IM Germany 2012 – Predictions

As I’ll be on summer vacation, I‘m only able to release a short predictions post containing the winning odds. For a full list of participants and their ratings, please download my Summer Rating Report.

Male Participants

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 40%
  • Andreas Raelert: 33%
  • Paul Amey: 16%
  • Sebastian Kienle: 8%

Female Participants

  • Caroline Steffen: 51%
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 21%
  • Heather Wurtele: 20%
  • Sofie Goos: 6%

Summer Rating Report is available for download!

report_title

My 2012 Summer Rating Report focuses on

  • the Ironman races in the 2012 qualifying series
  • the best performances and ratings
  • the current KPR standings
  • the upcoming July races that decide the first round of qualifyers
  • predictions for Kona 2012

We also have a cool new title photo which was provided by Rich Cruse.

If you haven’t already, please join my mailing list in order to be notified when new reports become available (just use the form in the sidebar on the right).

Download the Report here.

Feel free to share with others and let me know what you think. If there are points you don’t agree with or have some ideas for additional analysis, I’d also like to hear from you!

IM Austria 2012 – Predictions

If you are interested in a comprehensive look at the upcoming June races and the implications for the first round of Kona qualifiers, you’ll want to have a look at my upcoming Summer Rating Report. If you want to get an info as soon as it’s available, please subscribe to my mailing list by using the form in the sidebar on the right.

Previous Results

With a course rating of 17:08 Austria is one of the two screaming fast courses, only Challenge Roth is a little bit quicker (course rating 19:12). Last year’s race was won by Marino Vanhoenacker, who set a new world record (and of course, course record) of 7:45:58. (The world record was broken a week later in Roth by Andreas Raelert.) The women’s winner was Mary-Beth Ellis in her first full Ironman in a time of 8:43:34 (also the course record).

Male Participants

Marino has won in Austria 6 times, but has decided to shake things up a little bit this and is going to race in Frankfurt. In his absence, Faris Al-Sultan and Tom Lowe are the favorites for the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:11:12 08:27:18 9
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:14:10 08:30:21 13
3 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:17:44 08:34:02 21
4 Michael Goehner GER 08:20:24 08:36:48 25
5 Hannes Hempel AUT 08:25:59 08:42:34 42
6 Mika Luoto FIN 08:28:35 08:45:15 53
7 Markus Fachbach GER 08:30:38 08:47:22 66
8 Pedro Gomez POR 08:35:45 08:52:39 97
9 Jose Luis Villanueva ESP 08:37:31 08:54:28 106
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:40:12 08:57:15 116
11 Philip Graves GBR 08:40:33 08:57:36 118
12 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 08:43:49 09:00:59 140
13 Simon Billeau FRA 08:43:55 09:01:05 141
14 Patrick Jaberg SWI 08:45:24 09:02:37 147
15 Markus Ressler AUT 08:51:45 09:09:10 187
16 Ernst Moser AUT 08:51:47 09:09:12 189
17 Thomas Hellriegel GER 08:53:42 09:11:11 203
18 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:53:43 09:11:12 204
19 Dominik Berger AUT 08:54:01 09:11:31 206
20 Andreas Fuchs   08:55:27 09:13:00 218
21 Georg Swoboda AUT 09:00:25 09:18:07 261
22 Markus Lichtenegger   09:21:21 09:39:44 418
23 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:29:41 09:48:21 475
24 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:32:33 09:51:19 505
25 Jozef Vrabel SVK 09:38:30 09:57:27 538
26 Bojan Maric SCG 09:55:26 10:14:56 647
27 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:48:32 12:11:45 848
28 Ivan Kharin RUS n/a unrated n/a
29 Jan-Roelf Heerssema   n/a unrated n/a
30 Milan Rovensky   n/a unrated n/a
31 Matej Paradiz   n/a unrated n/a
32 Benoit Bourguet   n/a unrated n/a
33 Mark Livesey   n/a unrated n/a
34 Richard Martinez   n/a unrated n/a
35 Evgeniy Nikitin   n/a unrated n/a
36 Josef Krivanek   n/a unrated n/a
37 Mario Fink   n/a unrated n/a

Female Participants

Erika Csomor has posted a number of fast times in Austria, but hasn’t won there yet. Not sure if she can get the top spot this year – with Linsey Corbin she faces a strong competitor:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Linsey Corbin USA 09:11:02 09:29:05 13
2 Erika Csomor HUN 09:17:40 09:35:56 26
3 Simone Helfenschneider-Ofner AUT 09:21:41 09:40:05 38
4 Dana Wagner GER 09:54:22 10:13:50 136
5 Nicole Woysch GER 10:01:50 10:21:33 163
6 Conny Dauben GER 10:33:18 10:54:03 237
7 Zeljka Saban   11:00:28 11:22:06 262
8 Christine Grammer   n/a unrated n/a
9 Michaela Rudolf   n/a unrated n/a
10 Simone Fürnkranz   n/a unrated n/a
11 Simona Vykoukalova   n/a unrated n/a

IM Coeur d’Alene 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions on race day seemed to be pretty normal for CdA – a race adjustment of 2:34 leads to a new course rating of 3:36.

Male Results

Victor Zyemtsev took control of the race on the bike, leading into T2 and then posting the fastest run as well:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Victor Zyemtsev USA 00:51:56 04:47:55 02:49:37 08:32:29 08:38:15
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:49:20 04:56:22 02:52:59 08:41:36 08:43:46
3 Matthew Russell USA 01:06:23 04:48:52 02:53:41 08:52:00 09:02:48
4 Kevin Taddonio USA 01:05:32 04:47:10 02:59:45 08:55:48 08:56:35
5 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:51:28 04:53:11 03:12:05 08:59:49 08:56:08
6 Joel Jameson GBR 01:01:36 05:05:37 02:59:26 09:09:52 09:03:44
7 Ian Mikelson USA 00:53:56 05:09:07 03:05:50 09:13:03 09:04:53
8 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:49:13 05:06:04 03:21:10 09:20:27 09:11:23
9 Chris Boudreaux   00:56:01 05:17:19 03:05:50 09:23:10 09:31:40
10 Brendan Halpin USA 01:03:20 05:05:13 03:18:06 09:30:04 09:26:29
11 Guy Crawford AUS 00:51:28 04:50:17 04:02:10 09:47:12 09:09:55
12 Blake Becker USA 00:55:59 05:42:09 04:50:06 11:33:03 09:53:47
13 Lewis Elliot USA 00:56:06 04:58:38 06:18:50 12:17:14 09:32:10

Tim O’Donnell had a solid race, moving into the second spot early in the run, and validating his Kona spot. Behind him there was quite some back and forth for the third podium spot on the run: At different points, Guy Crawford, Anton Blokhin and Kevin Taddonio held that spot, but in the end  it was taken by Matthew Russell.

Female Results

On the female side, Meredith Kessler posted the fastest splits across the board:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:51:53 05:13:16 03:12:04 09:21:44 09:33:44
2 Haley Cooper-Scott USA 01:06:02 05:27:40 03:24:31 10:01:25 10:12:42
3 Whitney Garcia USA 01:01:56 05:32:47 03:20:18 10:01:46 09:58:48
4 Rachel Kiers CAN 01:01:39 05:39:13 03:31:41 10:16:19 10:14:40
5 Beth Shutt USA 01:03:27 05:37:41 03:37:21 10:22:16 n/a
6 Stephanie Ossenbrink CAN 01:01:42 05:30:14 03:48:53 10:24:44 n/a
7 Trish Deim USA 01:06:50 05:36:04 03:45:59 10:34:32 n/a
8 Amanda McKenzie AUS 01:05:55 06:11:01 04:00:33 11:22:40 11:04:32

The story that’s missing from the results is the drama around the disqualification of Heather Wurtele. She was leading the race together with MBK when the crank fell off her bike. Christie Sym (who apparently had DNF’d) then gave Heather her bike to finish the bike leg “BMX style” (Heather is 6’2”, and Christie’s bike was a 51cm – I’d love to see a photo). This seems to be in conflict with a USATA rule that forward progress on the bike leg has to be done with your bike at all times and it was decided she’d be DQ’d. She was not allowed to finish the race and contest the DQ afterwards. I hope that she’ll be able to regroup, validate her Kona spot in another IM race pretty soon and is going to have a strong Kona race.

IM France 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions on race day were typical for France – a race adjustment of 7:40 was almost exactly in line with the new course rating of 7:47. Even if the conditions were not super-fast, the two winners set new course records.

Male Results

Frederik van Lierde successfully defended his title, leading almost from start to finish:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:47:22 04:35:42 02:53:39 08:21:51 08:27:13
2 Paul Amey GBR 00:48:46 04:55:50 02:52:15 08:42:48 08:26:47
3 Francois Chabaud FRA 00:48:53 04:48:21 03:02:02 08:45:23 08:38:57
4 Bruno Clerbout BEL 00:51:34 05:01:10 02:48:16 08:46:54 09:03:19
5 Sergio Marques PRT 00:55:26 05:02:02 02:45:39 08:48:55 08:57:24
6 Jose Jeuland FRA 00:50:35 05:02:23 02:54:30 08:53:52 09:12:54
7 Axel Zeebroek BEL 00:47:24 04:56:43 03:06:52 08:56:43 08:45:47
8 Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:55:29 05:06:51 02:54:45 09:02:59 08:54:51
9 Mike Schifferle SWI 01:00:11 04:57:22 02:58:22 09:07:08 09:03:39
10 Jonas Djurback SWE 00:50:30 05:02:36 03:10:39 09:09:28 n/a
11 Marcel Bischof GER 00:57:16 04:59:23 03:12:07 09:14:56 09:28:49
12 Anthony Pannier FRA 00:47:22 04:50:06 03:35:43 09:19:09 n/a
13 Rafael Gomes POR 00:55:25 05:22:48 03:15:08 09:39:50 n/a
14 Pierre Dorez FRA 00:52:31 04:52:05 03:55:32 09:46:09 n/a
15 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 00:59:41 05:25:09 03:34:12 10:05:28 09:51:02
16 Ulrik Schaarup DEN 00:59:48 05:02:58 04:54:07 11:03:36 n/a

Late entry Paul Amey used his good marathon to run by Francois Chabaud to secure the second place.

Female Results

Tine Deckers took control of the race on the bike, and then went on to post a strong marathon to win in a convincing fashion:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Tine Deckers BEL 00:57:18 05:10:03 03:02:31 09:16:05 09:28:51
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:52:10 05:20:04 03:07:14 09:26:25 09:27:25
3 Kristin Moeller GER 01:02:47 05:27:58 03:00:29 09:37:07 09:43:09
4 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:00:33 05:30:15 03:09:51 09:47:34 09:45:15
5 Martina Dogana ITA 00:59:42 05:38:54 03:10:33 09:55:09 09:46:13
6 Beth Walsh USA 00:59:48 05:44:05 03:08:32 09:58:26 n/a
7 Anne Basso FRA 00:55:18 05:39:06 03:48:16 10:29:12 10:16:54

Gina Crawford had a solid race and finished second, Kristin Moeller needed the best marathon to run into third place.

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