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Well Ranked Pros Not Racing Kona

There are a number of professional athletes that are ranked high in the KPR but still won’t be racing Kona: Some didn’t race an Ironman even though they would have had enough points to qualify (“Didn’t Validate”), some declined the slots they were offered (“Declined”). This post looks at these athletes and discusses their reasons for not being on the startline in Kona. To those that can’t race Kona this year because of an injury, speedy healing!

Emma Bilham (SUI, Declined)

EmmaFrance

Emma has been racing as a Pro in 70.3s in 2014 and 2015, including a 10th place at the 70.3 Worlds in 2015. This season she continued to race well in  70.3s but also stepped up to the full distance, quickly finding great success: Two second places at IM France (behind five-time winner Tine Deckers) and at IM Switzerland (behind Daniela Ryf posting the first sub-9 in Zürich) gave her enough points for a Kona slot.

After some deliberation, she decided to decline her slot. “Mainly I’m not going to Kona this year as it’s my first year doing long distance races and I don’t believe I have the necessary experience to tackle Kona yet, or the level to produce a competitive result. Also, it is an expensive trip which requires a great deal of physical and nervous energy. At this stage in my career I would rather focus on other races around that time to pick up valuable experience, points and hopefully some pennies, to put towards 2017. My next races include Challenge Mogan (Gran Canaria), IM Mallorca, possibly Asia and IM Malaysia. I’m just going with the flow this year and following my nose and heart!”

If she continues to learn as fast as she has this season, I have no doubt that she’ll be racing Kona very soon .. and that she’ll be competitive!

Photo: Emma finishing second at IM France, Credit: Getty Images for Ironman

Liz Blatchford (AUS, Didn’t Validate)

After a great third place in Kona 2015, Liz was practically assured a slot – provided she finished another Ironman race to fulfill the minimum requirements. She decided to focus on her “home race” IM Cairns that she had won three times in a row from 2013 to 2015. The fact that is was designated the Asia-pacific Regional Championship was another good reason to race there. While she was racing some 70.3s in the months leading up to Cairns, a foot injury kept her from doing proper run training and she was forced to cancel her start at Cairns, instead supporting the race on the media side being part of the IMLive broadcast.

Liz was optimistic that putting her foot in a boot would quicken up the healing – here’s a picture she posted on Instagram shortly before Cairns:

LizPhoto

She hoped to be able to race IM Mont Tremblant – a race she’s done before her two Kona podiums finishing fourth and second, and one she’d love to win. However in late July she had to announce that she won’t be able to race after all:

“I’m homeward bound which means no Ironman anytime soon.. which unfortunately means no Kona. It seems this little foot and perhaps the universe has other plans for me this year. Still unable to run and with no known return to running date, getting through an Ironman in the next month is just not an option. I’m in a surprisingly good head space about it. I’m actually very grateful that my foot, with basically the same injury last year, was less symptomatic and allowed me to get through Kona so well.”

Michelle Bremer (AUS, Declined)

Michelle has raced very well in the 2016 season: She started the “Australian summer” with two fifth places in 70.3s, then was sixth at IM New Zealand and almost won IM Australia when she posted a new marathon PR of 3:11 but was run down by Beth Gerdes who ran a 2:56. After a fourth place at the Regional Championships in Cairns she had more than enough points for a July slot.

She had some time to make a decision about her slot, but finally declined: “My heart wasn’t in racing at Kona this year. We have had an expensive year with buying a new home, furniture, car and puppy, and Kona is a very expensive trip. The final decision was made with being sick with the flu and chest infection the past couple of weeks – so I just felt that I’m better off physically, mentally and financially bypassing Kona this year and allowing someone else who really wants to race there to have the slot! I’ll be there racing one day in the near future for sure, just not this year.”

Beth Gerdes (USA, Declined)

Beth seems to always be on the edge of Pro Kona qualifying. Last season she had to do a lot of racing until she finally secured her slot by winning IM Switzerland in late July. After a 15th place in Kona she focused on 70.3 racing for most of the Australian summer. In May she was able to get her second IM win by running a spectacular 2:56 marathon at IM Australia – followed by getting married to fellow Pro Luke McKenzie. After that she wanted to defend her Switzerland title, but things didn’t go to plan and she took “a mind and body break”. This left her on the edge for July qualifying – after all the racing was done she ended up in the final July slot.

While Beth initially accepted her slot, she was forced to decline it a few days later. In early August she wrote on her blog: “Just as I was hopeful that things were starting to pick up again, I got another doozy. I have a pretty large cyst that needs to be removed with a minor surgery. As it is in the ‘saddle region’- no cycling for 4 to 6 weeks. Just under 10 weeks out from Kona, that’s a deal-breaker for me, especially on top of all the other things I have going on right now. So, although I accepted a July qualification spot, I am returning that slot to another deserving woman.” For now Beth is focused on helping husband Luke in his lead-up to Kona.

Rachel Joyce (GBR, Didn’t Validate)

After Rachel’s second place in Kona 2015 it was a bit of surprise when she announced in March that she was pregnant and would be sitting out the 2016 season. She has written at length on witsup (“A Joyful Bump in the Road for Joyce“) how she and her partner Brett Hedges decided to prioritize getting pregnant. Qualifying and racing in Kona was obviously out of the question for her and while she would like to return to racing, she says she doesn’t have a fixed schedule and will take things based on how she feels after the birth. On August 8th, Rachel gave birth to little Archie and posted this photo on Instagram:

Archie

Congratulations to Rachel and Brett, enjoy this new exciting phase in your lives!

Chris Leiferman (USA, Declined)

When Chris was lining up for IM Mont Tremblant, he had scored a decent number of points in 70.3 races (including a second place at 70.3 Boulder) – but I considered his chances of qualifying as more as less theoretical as it would require a win in his first Pro Ironman against a very good field including defending Champion Jordan Rapp and a number of other, more experienced athletes looking for Kona points. But winning the race is exactly what he did, storming into first place with a 2:45 run on a day when there were only three sub-3h runs. This was enough for him to move into the 10th and final qualifying spot in the August KPR.

Chris quickly declined his slot, here’s his view: “The biggest reason of me not taking my Kona slot is because it wasn’t part of the plan. I want a little more experience in the fulls before I put a giant financial stress on racing in Hawaii. And I’m not only wanting experience for Kona, I’m wanting experience for the full distance as a whole. So more fulls will do that for me.”

Caroline Steffen (SUI, Didn’t Validate)

Caroline has had some great results in Kona, coming close to winning in 2010 (when she finished second to Miranda Carfrae) and 2012 (second to Leanda Cave). She’s been eying the top spot for a while, and her two 5th places in 2013 and 2014 were almost disappointments for her. Her 2015 season didn’t go to well with a lot of little injuries and sicknesses, in Kona a stomach bug only allowed her to finish ninth after a long, hard day of grinding it out.

For 2016 Caroline took a different approach. She decided to travel not quite as much and to focus on 70.3 racing, winning or finishing second in a long list of races. She finished a very respectable fifth in the 70.3 Championships in her adopted home town in Mooloolaba. Under the guidance of her new coach, Daniel Plews, expect her to be back to Ironman Hawaii next year – and to be a serious contender for at least a podium finish!

Matt Trautman (ZAF, Declined)

So far Matt hasn’t had much success racing Kona as a Pro. He turned Pro after he was the second fastest agegrouper in Kona 2013, last year he qualified but then broke his collarbone in June, still managing to start in Kona. After being in the second pack in the swim he tried to catch the lead group with Marino Vanhoenacker, Bart Aernouts and Ronnie Schildknecht but thinks he “overcooked in the heat”. Similar to the athletes he was riding with, he ended his race shortly after the start of the run.

Matt had a solid 2016 season: A fourth place in the Regional Championships in South Africa and a few nice wins in 70.3s (Korea, South Africa, Staffordshire and Durban) easily qualified him in the July KPR. But in early July he announced on Twitter that he was having problems that were subsequently diagnosed as a broken ankle:

MattyTweet

At that point his hopes for Kona were slim and by the end of July he declined his slot.

By the end of August he has made some progress: “Updated situation is that the fracture has healed and so now I’m starting the rehab process. Will run in the Alter-G for the next week or so then will look at getting back in the road. No race plans yet but looking at November/December.”

Annah Watkinson (ZAF, Declined)

This year was Annah’s first season as a Professional after picking up triathlon pretty late in her life: “I dabbled in gymnastics (started too old – which seems to be the theme of my sporting life), running then cycling (due to a boyfriend – the usual story) and started triathlon in 2010.” She had some great results as an agegrouper, including qualifying three times for Kona (but only racing it once), finishing 3rd in the W30-34 agegroup in Kona 2015 and posting a 9:31 in Austria 2015 that is faster than the South African Pro record of 9:37 by Diane Emery. She is coached by South African Ironman legend Raynard Tissink, and it was Raynard who suggested to consider racing Pro – much to her surprise. “My career as an Investment Banker has been my focus for most of my life, so taking your foot off the gas at work was a tough decision. Even though I am racing Pro, I still have a full time job to take into consideration and it still influences a lot of my decisions, recovery, training and racing opportunities overseas. Ultimately Raynard believes it is still holding back my progress – not necessarily to how far I can go, but rather how quickly I get there.”

AnnahWatkinson

Annah didn’t take long to adjust to the new level of racing: Her Pro debut was a 3rd place in 70.3 South Africa in January 2016 followed by an 8th place at her home Ironman in Port Elizabeth. This summer she won 70.3 Durban, was 9th in 70.3 Vineman as part of her build up towards IM Lake Placid where she finished second. “I have used every race this year as validation of my decision to race professionally and I feel that although I am making gains, there is still a big gap between myself and those top girls. I had to change my mental state, from ‘oh my goodness, these are all the athletes I looked up to’ to ‘these are my competitors, I am ready to race them’ – it is getting there but has been a real challenge.” Even though she was short of the cutoff in July and didn’t race in August, she received the last August qualifying slot which she declined.

“It was tough to decline the spot – but without a doubt in my mind it is the right decision. When I decided to turn Pro it was with the idea that I could (on the perfect day) be in a position to get into the Top 10 at Kona. Unless I am doing better in the local and international races, I am not going to Kona just for an experience. I have been to Kona twice and I want to at least be competitive even if I don’t get the result I want. I will be racing at IM Barcelona this year and a couple of 70.3 races at the end of the year.”

Ironman Wales 2016 (Sept 18th) – Predictions

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Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Moeller (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21
2014 Matt Trautman (ZAF) 09:07:28 Amy Forshaw (GBR) 10:57:26
2015 Jesse Thomas (USA) 08:57:33 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:56:31

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jesse Thomas USA 00:54:20 05:03:28 02:52:19 08:57:33
2 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:57:00 05:05:46 02:52:18 09:03:09
3 Markus Thomschke GER 00:57:01 04:57:14 03:12:54 09:14:52

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Anja Beranek GER 00:54:26 05:30:15 03:23:16 09:56:31
2 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:09:13 05:45:44 03:22:42 10:28:22
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:56:54 06:06:34 03:13:50 10:29:55

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Bike overall 04:57:14 Markus Thomschke 2015-09-13
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Beranek 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:30:15 Anja Beranek 2015-09-13
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Moeller 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 27:21.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -26:47 04:25 -25:00 01:30 22 -26:47 04:25 -25:00 01:30
2012 -01:01 04:46 -23:15 17:14 25 -13:54 04:36 -24:07 09:22
2013 -30:00 00:57 -28:24 -01:27 22 -19:16 03:23 -25:33 05:46
2014 -45:23 -03:51 -28:24 -05:49 14 of 16 -25:48 01:34 -26:16 02:52
2015 -33:32 -03:54 -27:05 04:01 22 of 26 -27:21 00:29 -26:26 03:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 21 Alberto Casadei ITA 09:03:27 08:43:16 00:47:48 05:16:08 02:54:31 30% +34% -36% (8) 68
2 27 Fraser Cartmell GBR 09:07:01 08:58:43 00:48:28 05:07:44 03:05:49 33% +8% -59% (11) 122
3 23 Marc Duelsen GER 09:08:56 08:42:26 00:52:55 05:11:32 02:59:28 78% +0% -22% (8) 67
4 26 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 09:13:44 08:58:34 00:50:19 05:27:16 02:51:09 47% +0% -53% (4) (121)
5 28 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 09:18:43 08:53:46 00:52:59 05:17:30 03:03:13 96% +4% -0% (7) 101
6 25 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 09:21:47 09:00:33 00:51:29 05:09:57 03:15:22 48% +25% -27% (10) 130
7 22 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:22:19 09:02:31 00:52:26 05:15:48 03:09:06 60% +0% -40% (16) 135
8 42 Philip Graves GBR 09:24:18 08:52:21 00:47:38 05:11:03 03:20:37 100% +0% -0% (5) (98)
9 36 Swen Sundberg GER 09:25:02 08:59:02 00:53:05 05:18:12 03:08:46 55% +1% -44% (17) (123)
10 24 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:27:28 09:03:07 00:59:48 05:17:53 03:04:47 89% +8% -3% (60) 137
11 47 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:27:51 09:08:47 00:51:36 05:23:49 03:07:26 47% +0% -53% (13) (160)
12 46 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:29:39 09:13:24 00:53:49 05:18:27 03:12:24 70% +11% -18% (13) (178)
13 32 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:33:48 09:08:16 00:55:10 05:22:54 03:10:45 80% +0% -20% (7) 158
14 33 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:37:58 09:17:51 00:54:16 05:28:21 03:10:21 41% +7% -52% (13) 188
15 45 Herve Banti MCO 09:41:19 09:26:06 00:51:58 05:21:04 03:23:17 22% +0% -78% (6) (211)
16 31 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:45:49 09:37:20 00:53:07 05:35:16 03:12:27 18% +7% -75% (8) 238
17 30 Oliver Simon GBR 09:47:33 09:38:53 00:48:27 05:24:35 03:29:31 55% +0% -45% (12) 241
18 35 David Jilek CZE 10:02:26 09:39:13 00:58:14 05:34:05 03:25:07 64% +21% -15% (7) 242
19 34 Eneko Elosegui ESP 10:07:10 09:41:45 00:59:04 05:31:09 03:31:57 62% +12% -25% (16) 249
20 38 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 10:17:22 09:48:59 01:05:52 05:55:31 03:10:59 68% +0% -32% (6) 259
21 39 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:25:10 10:13:57 00:57:48 05:41:55 03:40:27 17% +8% -75% (12) 282
22 29 Robbie Wade IRL 10:35:29 10:23:11 00:58:44 05:44:17 03:47:28 39% +0% -61% (2) (288)
23 37 David Krupicka CZE 11:25:31 10:59:26 01:05:05 06:00:39 04:14:48 100% +0% -0% (2) (298)
40 Brennan Townshend GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
41 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)
43 Hannes Vandermoere BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
44 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
48 Matthias Epping GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Diana Riesler GER 09:58:17 09:31:45 00:57:52 05:35:03 03:20:21 46% +14% -40% (18) 31
2 11 Darbi Roberts USA 10:14:13 09:58:31 00:52:45 05:53:01 03:23:27 37% +0% -63% (5) 85
3 7 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:19:14 10:09:20 00:57:59 05:48:34 03:27:40 37% +16% -47% (9) (103)
4 6 Lucy Charles GBR 10:19:38 10:01:38 00:47:15 05:58:25 03:28:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (91)
5 3 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:27:40 10:03:46 01:10:59 05:54:48 03:16:53 100% +0% -0% (12) 94
6 8 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 10:29:09 10:00:27 00:59:07 06:03:35 03:21:27 100% +0% -0% (3) 89
7 10 Kate Comber GBR 10:30:39 10:06:14 00:53:57 06:02:32 03:29:11 100% +0% -0% (2) (98)
8 4 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:36:08 10:07:05 01:01:26 05:57:57 03:31:45 68% +0% -32% (7) 98
9 9 Kristin Lie NOR 10:41:33 10:14:01 01:12:18 05:53:43 03:30:32 82% +0% -18% (13) (110)
5 Nikki Bartlett GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Alberto Casadei: 37% (2-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 27% (3-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 18% (5-1)
  • Ritchie Nicholls: 6% (16-1)
  • Erik-Simon Strijk: 5% (17-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 2% (42-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Diana Riesler: 48% (1-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 13% (7-1)
  • Katharina Grohmann: 13% (7-1)
  • Darbi Roberts: 10% (9-1)
  • Leslie DiMichele Miller: 8% (11-1)
  • Lucy Charles: 4% (25-1)
  • Kate Comber: 2% (46-1)
  • Caroline Livesey: 2% (62-1)

70.3 Championships 2016 in Mooloolaba – Results

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Tim Reed AUS 00:22:53 02:06:12 01:11:03 03:44:14 -08:53 US$ 45000
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:24:14 02:04:45 01:11:18 03:44:16 -07:07 US$ 20000
3 Ruedi Wild SUI 00:22:47 02:06:28 01:11:07 03:44:40 -12:03 US$ 15000
4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:22:44 02:06:20 01:12:44 03:45:52 -08:59 US$ 10000
5 Sam Appleton AUS 00:22:40 02:06:23 01:12:51 03:46:02 -07:42 US$ 7500
6 Nick Kastelein AUS 00:22:43 02:06:41 01:12:46 03:46:21 -13:22 US$ 6500
7 Tim Don GBR 00:22:51 02:06:37 01:12:57 03:46:32 -04:52 US$ 6000
8 Maurice Clavel GER 00:22:53 02:06:18 01:13:39 03:46:47 -11:05 US$ 5500
9 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:25:41 02:06:42 01:10:34 03:47:14 -02:27 US$ 5000
10 Craig Alexander AUS 00:22:49 02:06:39 01:14:03 03:47:28 -07:32 US$ 4500
11 Andreas Dreitz GER 00:23:20 02:05:36 01:15:18 03:48:16 -05:33  
12 Josh Amberger AUS 00:21:56 02:06:54 01:15:58 03:49:01 -08:23  
13 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:22:57 02:05:55 01:16:59 03:49:56 -03:25  
14 Brent McMahon CAN 00:22:45 02:06:39 01:17:15 03:50:45 -05:24  
15 Joe Gambles AUS 00:22:53 02:06:21 01:19:00 03:52:26 -00:02  
16 Mark Bowstead NZL 00:22:50 02:06:19 01:19:11 03:52:36 -04:53  
17 Mitchell Robins AUS 00:22:57 02:12:28 01:14:33 03:54:17 -10:55  
18 Guy Crawford NZL 00:22:54 02:08:37 01:18:31 03:54:22 -13:10  
19 Daniel Fontana ITA 00:22:56 02:13:46 01:15:42 03:56:45 -06:01  
20 Paul Schuster GER 00:22:56 02:15:03 01:17:01 03:59:22 -07:43  
21 Mike Phillips NZL 00:23:00 02:15:14 01:17:35 04:00:07 02:01  
22 Graham O’Grady NZL 00:22:46 02:13:08 01:20:22 04:00:48 00:56  
23 David Mainwaring AUS 00:23:57 02:16:46 01:16:22 04:01:15 -02:16  
24 Matt Franklin NZL 00:22:43 02:08:50 01:25:33 04:01:47 -16:47  
25 Antony Costes FRA 00:22:48 02:15:08 01:19:57 04:02:10 -00:34  
26 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:24:38 02:15:44 01:18:27 04:03:05 08:43  
27 Peter Kerr AUS 00:22:53 02:23:19 01:15:13 04:05:54 00:19  
28 Taylor Reid CAN 00:24:10 02:16:15 01:21:52 04:06:34 08:21  
29 Milosz Sowinski POL 00:24:05 02:16:19 01:21:37 04:06:41 -03:02  
30 Tim George AUS 00:25:41 02:18:33 01:20:18 04:08:26 07:45  
31 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:24:32 02:18:44 01:20:46 04:08:58 -01:48  
32 David Breuer GER 00:23:53 02:19:56 01:24:03 04:12:23 05:58  
33 Adam Gordon AUS 00:25:42 02:23:00 01:19:32 04:12:45 07:11  
34 Paulo Roberto Maciel da Silva BRA 00:22:54 02:23:21 01:22:28 04:13:27 07:41  
35 Christian Hoerper GER 00:25:45 02:24:22 01:19:15 04:13:55 05:00  
36 Mitchell Kibby AUS 00:23:58 02:29:51 01:17:24 04:15:22 06:55  
37 Brad Williams USA 00:26:28 02:17:07 01:29:24 04:17:35 04:10  
38 Roberto Rivera CHI 00:24:11 02:21:08 01:27:19 04:17:42 06:02  
39 Casey Munro AUS 00:22:49 02:27:07 01:29:04 04:24:15 20:24  
  Matthew Pellow AUS 00:24:10 02:19:58   DNF    
  Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:23:22 02:23:43   DNF    
  Luke McKenzie AUS 00:22:56     DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Holly Lawrence GBR 00:23:24 02:19:28 01:21:48 04:09:12 -06:41 US$ 45000
2 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:26:46 02:21:06 01:18:43 04:11:09 -05:55 US$ 20000
3 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:25:05 02:22:26 01:21:38 04:13:36 -01:15 US$ 15000
4 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:24:12 02:23:47 01:21:19 04:14:09 02:17 US$ 10000
5 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:24:13 02:23:09 01:25:10 04:17:16 -00:48 US$ 7500
6 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:24:11 02:23:44 01:24:58 04:17:26 -03:07 US$ 6500
7 Laura Philipp GER 00:27:16 02:24:46 01:21:00 04:17:40 -07:27 US$ 6000
8 Alicia Kaye USA 00:24:17 02:23:31 01:25:35 04:17:53 -02:57 US$ 5500
9 Radka Vodickova CZE 00:24:10 02:26:51 01:22:37 04:18:17 -05:03 US$ 5000
10 Magali Tisseyre CAN 00:24:16 02:23:49 01:25:36 04:18:19 -01:27 US$ 4500
11 Ellie Salthouse AUS 00:24:15 02:24:02 01:26:50 04:20:07 00:07  
12 Laura Siddall GBR 00:27:35 02:26:08 01:23:25 04:21:43 -07:37  
13 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:27:15 02:26:52 01:23:54 04:22:33 -09:46  
14 Astrid Stienen GER 00:27:18 02:25:53 01:24:20 04:22:43 -12:27  
15 Lauren Brandon USA 00:22:54 02:23:18 01:31:56 04:23:13 -08:20  
16 Linsey Corbin USA 00:27:17 02:26:12 01:27:31 04:26:12 00:16  
17 Natascha Schmitt GER 00:26:06 02:28:30 01:26:47 04:26:45 -06:45  
18 Leanda Cave GBR 00:24:11 02:24:01 01:33:35 04:26:53 01:20  
19 Kate Pedley AUS 00:27:21 02:35:11 01:21:56 04:29:07 -01:35  
20 Heather Lendway USA 00:24:21 02:24:01 01:36:25 04:29:51 -04:00  
21 Katey Gibb AUS 00:25:53 02:33:23 01:25:31 04:29:52 -03:53  
22 Andrea Forrest AUS 00:26:22 02:31:28 01:29:16 04:32:25 00:35  
23 Ricarda Lisk GER 00:24:24 02:38:25 01:27:11 04:34:35 00:23  
24 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:27:48 02:34:18 01:27:25 04:34:56 01:00  
25 Nikki Bartlett GBR 00:28:32 02:30:40 01:30:38 04:35:00 -03:42  
26 Jessica Mitchell AUS 00:28:36 02:37:11 01:28:57 04:40:24 03:06  
27 Kym Coogan AUS 00:27:35 02:37:35 01:30:47 04:41:02 -00:12  
28 Erika Simon ARG 00:28:33 02:42:28 01:37:44 04:54:30 03:11  
29 Caroline Livesey GBR 00:30:36 02:43:04 01:38:39 04:58:03 18:26  
30 Renee Baker AUS 00:27:39 02:38:17 01:50:46 04:59:58 15:31  

70.3 World Championship in Mooloolaba (Sept 4th) – Predictions

703ChLogoThis is my first post with predictions for a 70.3 race. Some data might still be a bit wonky, but I think it gives a good view of the field’s strengths and weaknesses and how close the race is probably going to be – or how far ahead of the field Daniela’s results have been.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:45:37 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 04:12:58
2007 Andy Potts (USA) 03:42:33 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 04:07:25
2008 Terenzo Bozzone (NZL) 03:40:10 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 04:02:48
2009 Michael Raelert (GER) 03:34:04 Julie Dibens (GBR) 03:59:33
2010 Michael Raelert (GER) 03:41:19 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 04:06:28
2011 Craig Alexander (AUS) 03:54:48 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:55
2012 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:35 Leanda Cave (GBR) 04:28:05
2013 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 03:54:02 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 04:20:07
2014 Javier Gomez (ESP) 03:41:30 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:09:19
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 03:51:19 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 04:11:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:22:14 02:09:04 01:16:32 03:51:19
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:24:04 02:09:54 01:15:22 03:52:48
3 Javier Gomez ESP 00:22:12 02:13:38 01:15:35 03:55:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:23:46 02:21:10 01:22:51 04:11:34
2 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:26:33 02:27:39 01:24:56 04:23:07
3 Anja Beranek GER 00:24:32 02:24:18 01:31:17 04:24:10

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 World Championship is a P-3000 race. It has a total prize purse of 250.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 3 Lionel Sanders CAN 03:51:49 03:53:16 00:26:10 02:05:57 01:14:42 1
2 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:52:39 03:56:05 00:24:02 02:07:07 01:16:30 2
3 9 Tim Don GBR 03:52:39 03:59:27 00:22:49 02:09:56 01:14:54 16
4 17 Joe Gambles AUS 03:54:29 03:56:07 00:22:58 02:08:59 01:17:31 3
5 32 Tyler Butterfield BMU 03:54:47 03:56:58 00:23:44 02:08:56 01:17:07 7
6 6 Tim Reed AUS 03:54:48 03:56:39 00:22:56 02:09:38 01:17:13 5
7 8 Andreas Dreitz GER 03:55:36 03:59:48 00:23:46 02:07:30 01:19:20 20
8 21 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 03:55:48 03:58:24 00:22:40 02:09:12 01:18:55 11
9 15 Sam Appleton AUS 03:55:58 03:59:39 00:22:42 02:09:12 01:19:03 18
10 20 Brent McMahon CAN 03:56:50 03:59:47 00:22:18 02:10:09 01:19:22 19
11 11 Trevor Wurtele CAN 03:57:18 04:00:19 00:24:26 02:09:52 01:18:00 25
12 10 Craig Alexander AUS 03:57:40 03:58:35 00:23:01 02:11:39 01:18:00 13
13 4 Ruedi Wild SUI 03:57:48 04:05:05 00:22:52 02:12:08 01:17:48 60
14 18 Josh Amberger AUS 03:58:27 04:03:25 00:21:50 02:07:57 01:23:40 38
15 23 Jan Van Berkel SUI 03:59:03 04:05:06 00:22:57 02:12:08 01:18:58 62
16 41 Mark Bowstead NZL 04:00:08 04:03:33 00:23:26 02:10:54 01:20:49 44
17 16 Taylor Reid CAN 04:00:23 04:04:31 00:24:17 02:11:15 01:19:51 56
18 24 Maurice Clavel GER 04:01:36 04:03:51 00:22:53 02:14:22 01:19:21 47
19 36 Igor Amorelli BRA 04:01:46 04:08:09 00:22:51 02:09:54 01:24:01 98
20 12 Jake Montgomery AUS 04:01:49 04:03:29 00:22:31 02:11:32 01:22:46 41
21 42 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 04:02:08 04:03:22 00:22:40 02:15:40 01:18:48 37
22 27 Mike Phillips NZL 04:02:52 04:04:18 00:23:06 02:12:10 01:22:36 54
23 38 Nick Kastelein AUS 04:03:30 04:10:25 00:22:51 02:16:23 01:19:16 123
24 30 Braden Currie NZL 04:04:06 04:06:52 00:23:09 02:15:41 01:20:16 85
25 43 Graham O’Grady NZL 04:04:15 04:06:05 00:22:40 02:12:03 01:24:32 75
26 35 Luke McKenzie AUS 04:04:27 04:07:54 00:23:53 02:11:24 01:24:10 96
27 29 Matthew Pellow AUS 04:04:59 04:09:26 00:23:25 02:13:34 01:23:00 112
28 5 Antony Costes FRA 04:05:01 04:09:01 00:22:52 02:13:07 01:24:02 110
29 46 Tim George AUS 04:05:27 04:12:01 00:23:54 02:16:26 01:20:07 (144)
30 26 Mitchell Robins AUS 04:06:43 04:11:23 00:23:53 02:15:51 01:21:58 136
31 50 Daniel Fontana ITA 04:07:28 04:06:30 00:22:47 02:15:49 01:23:52 81
32 28 David Mainwaring AUS 04:07:44 04:09:47 00:24:18 02:17:07 01:21:19 118
33 25 Casey Munro AUS 04:08:29 04:10:29 00:22:42 02:15:38 01:25:08 124
34 45 Adam Gordon AUS 04:09:07 04:14:19 00:26:27 02:14:44 01:22:55 171
35 40 Peter Kerr AUS 04:09:26 04:14:28 00:22:21 02:21:16 01:20:49 174
36 39 David Breuer GER 04:10:13 04:12:53 00:23:26 02:17:29 01:24:18 152
37 31 Paulo Roberto Maciel da Silva BRA 04:10:19 04:12:15 00:22:58 02:18:49 01:23:32 147
38 37 Guy Crawford NZL 04:10:55 04:13:43 00:23:45 02:16:01 01:26:10 162
39 22 Christian Hoerper GER 04:11:26 04:15:27 00:25:05 02:20:58 01:20:23 185
40 53 Paul Schuster GER 04:11:42 04:13:21 00:23:30 02:20:15 01:22:57 156
41 34 Milosz Sowinski POL 04:12:04 04:16:08 00:24:32 02:18:03 01:24:29 195
42 49 Mitchell Kibby AUS 04:13:28 04:15:00 00:23:51 02:19:47 01:24:51 179
43 55 Mauro Baertsch SUI 04:13:31 04:18:37 00:25:06 02:20:12 01:23:12 230
44 44 Nick Baldwin SEY 04:14:27 04:17:13 00:25:03 02:18:34 01:25:50 207
45 33 Rodrigo Acevedo COL 04:15:06 04:20:20 00:26:12 02:18:05 01:25:49 256
46 52 Roberto Rivera CHI 04:15:42 04:18:16 00:24:23 02:19:08 01:27:10 224
47 48 Brad Williams USA 04:17:14 04:20:02 00:27:07 02:16:45 01:28:22 251
48 54 Matt Franklin NZL 04:21:07 04:25:00 00:22:53 02:16:04 01:37:09 299
49 47 Michael Davidson ZAF 04:22:48 04:28:53 00:26:31 02:27:44 01:23:34 331

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 101 Daniela Ryf SUI 04:12:35 04:18:10 00:23:56 02:20:22 01:23:17 1
2 102 Heather Wurtele CAN 04:17:33 04:18:50 00:26:10 02:22:15 01:24:08 2
3 110 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 04:19:04 04:23:38 00:26:58 02:22:48 01:24:17 8
4 107 Holly Lawrence GBR 04:19:13 04:22:24 00:24:10 02:21:50 01:28:13 4
5 105 Caroline Steffen SUI 04:22:06 04:22:07 00:24:56 02:26:39 01:25:31 3
6 104 Magali Tisseyre CAN 04:22:07 04:26:29 00:25:19 02:24:32 01:27:17 11
7 106 Annabel Luxford AUS 04:22:54 04:27:15 00:24:25 02:25:32 01:27:57 14
8 115 Alicia Kaye USA 04:24:33 04:29:56 00:24:18 02:24:37 01:30:38 22
9 124 Ellie Salthouse AUS 04:24:55 04:26:44 00:24:44 02:27:09 01:28:02 12
10 112 Radka Vodickova CZE 04:25:13 04:30:05 00:24:11 02:29:26 01:26:36 24
11 108 Lauren Barnett USA 04:26:13 04:32:01 00:27:10 02:27:33 01:26:31 32
12 127 Laura Philipp GER 04:29:14 04:31:51 00:27:22 02:29:30 01:27:21 30
13 111 Leanda Cave GBR 04:29:53 04:32:10 00:24:42 02:30:26 01:29:45 35
14 119 Linsey Corbin USA 04:30:30 04:35:17 00:27:10 02:29:09 01:29:11 48
15 120 Laura Siddall GBR 04:32:04 04:38:41 00:28:15 02:30:01 01:28:48 63
16 118 Sarah Crowley AUS 04:33:27 04:39:13 00:27:11 02:32:27 01:28:49 66
17 125 Lauren Brandon USA 04:33:55 04:38:26 00:23:07 02:26:05 01:39:44 61
18 128 Kirsty Jahn CAN 04:34:15 04:39:45 00:28:52 02:34:12 01:26:11 71
19 117 Ricarda Lisk GER 04:34:28 04:44:07 00:25:22 02:35:50 01:28:16 111
20 114 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 04:34:45 04:39:17 00:28:07 02:33:54 01:27:44 67
21 133 Kate Pedley AUS 04:35:25 04:37:41 00:29:22 02:33:51 01:27:13 56
22 109 Natascha Schmitt GER 04:35:43 04:40:29 00:26:28 02:34:26 01:29:49 74
23 123 Andrea Forrest AUS 04:36:03 04:38:53 00:26:07 02:34:19 01:30:36 64
24 116 Heather Lendway USA 04:36:19 04:40:53 00:23:58 02:30:06 01:37:15 79
25 130 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 04:37:08 04:38:16 00:28:33 02:31:02 01:32:33 60
26 129 Katey Gibb AUS 04:37:24 04:40:46 00:26:21 02:34:09 01:31:53 77
27 121 Astrid Stienen GER 04:38:22 04:39:18 00:28:53 02:34:43 01:29:45 68
28 126 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 04:41:06 04:42:24 00:26:40 02:35:33 01:33:53 98
29 134 Jessica Mitchell AUS 04:42:16 04:44:32 00:29:41 02:33:04 01:34:31 114
30 122 Nikki Bartlett GBR 04:43:16 04:45:52 00:29:13 02:36:04 01:32:59 127
31 132 Caroline Livesey GBR 04:45:14 04:49:44 00:28:24 02:36:06 01:35:44 160
32 139 Kym Coogan AUS 04:46:16 04:48:30 00:27:10 02:38:47 01:35:19 144
33 137 Renee Baker AUS 04:50:03 04:52:03 00:27:16 02:35:59 01:41:48 179
34 138 Erika Simon ARG 04:56:55 04:58:55 00:30:01 02:38:48 01:43:05 208

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Lionel Sanders: 33% (2-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 13% (7-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 13% (7-1)
  • Josh Amberger: 9% (10-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 7% (13-1)
  • Tim Don: 6% (15-1)
  • Sam Appleton: 5% (18-1)
  • Tim Reed: 4% (23-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (28-1)
  • Andreas Dreitz: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Daniela Ryf: 49% (1-1)
  • Holly Lawrence: 24% (3-1)
  • Heather Wurtele: 14% (6-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 6% (16-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 3% (37-1)
  • Magali Tisseyre: 3% (38-1)

How the Race Might Unfold

Based on the previous results and “raw data” and putting aside race dynamics, here’s a look at how the races might unfold. The graphs below show at various points in the race who’s probably in the lead and how far back the other athletes are going to be. Of course this is just speculation and “the real race” still has to be run!

Male Race

As usual the men’s race is going to be very close and hard to predict. Nonetheless, here is my best “guess” at how the men’s race could develop:

703Men

The main points of the race:

  • Josh Amberger is likely to lead after the swim, and he may well hold on that lead on the bike. However, the other athletes will try to close the gap as soon as possible on the bike, so he may get some company. For a Top 10 result Josh would need a much stronger run than he’s been able to show in the past, but if he’s injury free maybe he can show his potential.
  • Sebastian Kienle is likely to loose around two minutes in the swim, and he will work hard to make up the difference on the bike. At minimum he should be near the front of the chase group (maybe teaming up with countryman and bike powerhouse Andy Dreitz?) and take the lead in the early part of the run. It’s going to be very interesting to see if an improved run allows him to hold on the leading position in the second half of the run.
  • Lionel Sanders has been winning almost every 70.3 race this season. Even after losing more than four minutes in the swim, he should make up enough time on the bike for his fantastic run to win the race. In St. George he quickly closed the gap to Sebastian Kienle and they started the run together – Lionel put more than two minutes into Sebi to win there. Here even a gap of a minute or so to Sebi in T2 should still allow him to catch Sebi and win the race. 
  • There will be a large group of podium contenders pretty close together in T2. Tim Don has proven to be the fastest runner of them in the last couple of years – based on the data he’ll be in a statistical dead heat with Sebastian Kienle.  But with a group of strong athletes such as Joe Gambles, Ty Butterfield, Tim Reed, Andy Dreitz, Terenzo Bozzone, Sam Appleton, Brent McMahon, Trevor Wurtele or Craig Alexander, there is going to be at least one athlete that will have a cracker day and is going to change things up. Interesting racing to look forward to for sure!

Female Race

Based on the data, the female race is probably going to be less exciting than the male race .. but a few athletes will not agree with this and will do their best to make Daniela work hard for the win!

703Women

Some key points:

  • Lauren Brandon is likely to lead the race into T1, and she’ll stay close to the front up on the bike. She’ll be loosing more ground once the run starts.
  • Daniela Ryf will be in a bigger group about one minute back in T1. She’s the best bike rider in the field and will start to build a solid lead into T2 (close to two minutes) that she should be able to extend on the run. With a “statistical gap” of almost five minutes to the next athlete something extraordinary would have to happen for her not to defend her title.
  • For a long time Holly Lawrence should be the athlete closest to Daniela. She’ll likely swim a similar time and not loose to much time on the bike. For a podium finish she’ll need a strong run.
  • Heather Wurtele and Mel Hauschildt will likely be further behind after the swim – three minutes to Lauren Brandon for  Heather and four minutes for Mel. They have similar strong bike and run capabilities and should finish on the podium, but they are not likely to make up time to Daniela.
  • Behind the Top 4, there is a large group of athletes with very similar capabilities. On a good day, Caroline Steffen, Magali Tisseyre, Annabel Luxford, Alicia Kaye, Ellie Malthouse or Radka Vodickova are able to contend for a podium spot.

Ironman Wisconsin 2016 (WPRO-only, Sep 11th) – Predictions

Update Sep 1st: I have removed a few athletes that are no longer on the latest startlist (Uli Bromme, Haley Chura, Amber Ferreira, Melanie McQuaid).
IMWisconsin

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Andriy Yastrebov (UKR) 09:01:34 Ute Mueckel (GER) 10:11:22
2006 Markus Forster (GER) 09:07:24 Katja Schumacher (GER) 10:01:22
2007 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:52:49 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:37:03
2008 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:43:29 Hillary Biscay (USA) 09:47:25
2009 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:45:19 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:43:59
2010 Joe Gambles (AUS) 08:38:32 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:27:26
2011 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:45:18 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 09:41:03
2012 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:32:51 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 09:34:35
2013 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:40:15 Jackie Hering (USA) 09:47:07
2014 Daniel Bretscher (USA) 08:31:20 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:30:08

2014 TOP 3

In 2015 IM Wisconsin was an age-group only race, therefore I’m showing the 2014 results.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:52:16 04:42:57 02:50:14 08:31:20
2 Brandon Marsh USA 00:47:52 04:46:54 02:51:06 08:32:23
3 Pedro Gomes POR 00:52:17 04:42:51 02:55:41 08:36:56

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:59:13 05:15:26 03:08:40 09:30:08
2 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:04:13 05:15:52 03:14:15 09:41:16
3 Ashley Clifford USA 00:56:29 05:32:10 03:09:36 09:45:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:31:20 Daniel Bretscher 2014-09-07
Swim overall 00:44:56 John Flanagan 2010-09-12
Bike overall 04:31:14 Konstantin Bachor 2014-09-07
Run overall 02:50:14 Daniel Bretscher 2014-09-07
Total female 09:27:26 Gina Crawford 2010-09-12
Swim female 00:48:41 Linda Gallo 2005-09-11
Bike female 05:12:50 Gina Crawford 2010-09-12
Run female 02:59:33 Elizabeth Lyles 2012-09-09

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wisconsin is – 05:46.

Race Adjustments for IM Wisconsin

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -16:49 00:22 -08:17 -10:21 37 -16:49 00:22 -08:17 -10:21
2006 -19:18 -03:29 -17:26 -03:19 29 -18:03 -01:33 -12:52 -06:50
2007 -01:45 -03:49 -04:05 03:36 35 -12:37 -02:18 -09:56 -03:22
2008 01:55 -00:36 -01:50 02:33 29 -08:59 -01:53 -07:55 -01:53
2009 -04:22 -01:31 -00:43 -02:35 31 of 32 -08:04 -01:49 -06:28 -02:02
2010 00:36 -01:18 -00:25 01:27 29 of 30 -06:37 -01:43 -05:28 -01:27
2011 -08:32 -01:40 -01:20 -04:15 24 -06:54 -01:43 -04:52 -01:51
2012 -08:13 -01:35 00:15 -00:10 24 -07:03 -01:42 -04:14 -01:38
2013 -01:25 -03:15 -00:30 02:33 27 of 34 -06:26 -01:52 -03:49 -01:10
2014 00:13 -00:55 00:14 00:39 26 of 27 -05:46 -01:47 -03:25 -00:59

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wisconsin is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:29:20 09:25:46 00:58:15 05:17:12 03:08:54 63% +6% -31% (14) 22
2 2 Amanda Stevens USA 09:37:44 09:35:57 00:53:10 05:19:25 03:20:10 51% +17% -32% (18) 38
3 4 Haley Chura USA 09:39:42 09:43:32 00:50:39 05:22:22 03:21:41 64% +14% -22% (9) (53)
4 13 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:46:37 09:46:22 00:59:27 05:15:50 03:26:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (59)
5 16 Darbi Roberts USA 09:50:51 09:58:31 00:54:30 05:25:07 03:26:14 37% +0% -63% (5) 85
6 3 Uli Bromme USA 09:53:44 09:51:41 01:05:08 05:19:49 03:23:47 35% +38% -27% (14) (69)
7 5 Amber Ferreira USA 09:58:05 09:50:23 00:58:42 05:23:57 03:30:26 51% +18% -31% (16) 65
8 14 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 10:04:52 10:00:27 01:01:07 05:36:00 03:22:45 100% +0% -0% (3) 88
9 8 Christine Hammond USA 10:08:56 10:04:08 00:56:38 05:31:47 03:35:30 100% +0% -0% (7) (95)
10 10 Heather Leiggi USA 10:13:55 10:20:07 01:02:48 05:31:30 03:34:37 46% +13% -41% (6) (126)
11 7 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:17:30 10:17:42 01:02:56 05:38:56 03:30:39 58% +27% -14% (13) 117
12 17 Molly Roohi USA 10:22:14 10:17:30 01:06:55 05:36:59 03:33:20 100% +0% -0% (4) (116)
13 18 Katie Thomas USA 10:24:53 10:20:03 00:55:28 05:37:44 03:46:41 100% +0% -0% (3) (126)
14 15 Ashley Paulson USA 10:25:27 10:31:17 01:14:42 05:42:14 03:23:31 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (149)
15 9 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:55:33 10:56:26 01:09:14 05:52:02 03:49:16 55% +0% -45% (3) (159)
6 Danielle Fischer USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
11 Nicole Luse USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
12 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

  • Elizabeth Lyles: 52% (1-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 21% (4-1)
  • Haley Chura: 14% (6-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 4% (22-1)
  • Darbi Roberts: 3% (29-1)
  • Melanie McQuaid: 3% (32-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 2% (65-1)
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