Ironman Wisconsin 2016 (WPRO-only, Sep 11th) – Predictions

Update Sep 1st: I have removed a few athletes that are no longer on the latest startlist (Uli Bromme, Haley Chura, Amber Ferreira, Melanie McQuaid).

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Andriy Yastrebov (UKR)	09:01:34	Ute Mueckel (GER)	10:11:22
2006	Markus Forster (GER)	09:07:24	Katja Schumacher (GER)	10:01:22
2007	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:52:49	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:37:03
2008	Chris McDonald (AUS)	08:43:29	Hillary Biscay (USA)	09:47:25
2009	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:45:19	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:43:59
2010	Joe Gambles (AUS)	08:38:32	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:27:26
2011	Ezequiel Morales (ARG)	08:45:18	Jessica Jacobs (USA)	09:41:03
2012	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:32:51	Elizabeth Lyles (USA)	09:34:35
2013	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:40:15	Jackie Hering (USA)	09:47:07
2014	Daniel Bretscher (USA)	08:31:20	Britta Martin (NZL)	09:30:08

2014 TOP 3

In 2015 IM Wisconsin was an age-group only race, therefore I’m showing the 2014 results.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniel Bretscher	USA	00:52:16	04:42:57	02:50:14	08:31:20
2	Brandon Marsh	USA	00:47:52	04:46:54	02:51:06	08:32:23
3	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:52:17	04:42:51	02:55:41	08:36:56

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Britta Martin	NZL	00:59:13	05:15:26	03:08:40	09:30:08
2	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	01:04:13	05:15:52	03:14:15	09:41:16
3	Ashley Clifford	USA	00:56:29	05:32:10	03:09:36	09:45:10

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:31:20	Daniel Bretscher	2014-09-07
Swim	overall	00:44:56	John Flanagan	2010-09-12
Bike	overall	04:31:14	Konstantin Bachor	2014-09-07
Run	overall	02:50:14	Daniel Bretscher	2014-09-07
Total	female	09:27:26	Gina Crawford	2010-09-12
Swim	female	00:48:41	Linda Gallo	2005-09-11
Bike	female	05:12:50	Gina Crawford	2010-09-12
Run	female	02:59:33	Elizabeth Lyles	2012-09-09

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wisconsin is – 05:46.

Race Adjustments for IM Wisconsin

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-16:49	00:22	-08:17	-10:21	37	-16:49	00:22	-08:17	-10:21
2006	-19:18	-03:29	-17:26	-03:19	29	-18:03	-01:33	-12:52	-06:50
2007	-01:45	-03:49	-04:05	03:36	35	-12:37	-02:18	-09:56	-03:22
2008	01:55	-00:36	-01:50	02:33	29	-08:59	-01:53	-07:55	-01:53
2009	-04:22	-01:31	-00:43	-02:35	31 of 32	-08:04	-01:49	-06:28	-02:02
2010	00:36	-01:18	-00:25	01:27	29 of 30	-06:37	-01:43	-05:28	-01:27
2011	-08:32	-01:40	-01:20	-04:15	24	-06:54	-01:43	-04:52	-01:51
2012	-08:13	-01:35	00:15	-00:10	24	-07:03	-01:42	-04:14	-01:38
2013	-01:25	-03:15	-00:30	02:33	27 of 34	-06:26	-01:52	-03:49	-01:10
2014	00:13	-00:55	00:14	00:39	26 of 27	-05:46	-01:47	-03:25	-00:59

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wisconsin is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:29:20	09:25:46	00:58:15	05:17:12	03:08:54	63% +6% -31% (14)	22
2	2	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:37:44	09:35:57	00:53:10	05:19:25	03:20:10	51% +17% -32% (18)	38
3	4	Haley Chura	USA	09:39:42	09:43:32	00:50:39	05:22:22	03:21:41	64% +14% -22% (9)	(53)
4	13	Melanie McQuaid	CAN	09:46:37	09:46:22	00:59:27	05:15:50	03:26:19	100% +0% -0% (2)	(59)
5	16	Darbi Roberts	USA	09:50:51	09:58:31	00:54:30	05:25:07	03:26:14	37% +0% -63% (5)	85
6	3	Uli Bromme	USA	09:53:44	09:51:41	01:05:08	05:19:49	03:23:47	35% +38% -27% (14)	(69)
7	5	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:58:05	09:50:23	00:58:42	05:23:57	03:30:26	51% +18% -31% (16)	65
8	14	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	10:04:52	10:00:27	01:01:07	05:36:00	03:22:45	100% +0% -0% (3)	88
9	8	Christine Hammond	USA	10:08:56	10:04:08	00:56:38	05:31:47	03:35:30	100% +0% -0% (7)	(95)
10	10	Heather Leiggi	USA	10:13:55	10:20:07	01:02:48	05:31:30	03:34:37	46% +13% -41% (6)	(126)
11	7	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:17:30	10:17:42	01:02:56	05:38:56	03:30:39	58% +27% -14% (13)	117
12	17	Molly Roohi	USA	10:22:14	10:17:30	01:06:55	05:36:59	03:33:20	100% +0% -0% (4)	(116)
13	18	Katie Thomas	USA	10:24:53	10:20:03	00:55:28	05:37:44	03:46:41	100% +0% -0% (3)	(126)
14	15	Ashley Paulson	USA	10:25:27	10:31:17	01:14:42	05:42:14	03:23:31	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(149)
15	9	Cathleen Knutson	USA	10:55:33	10:56:26	01:09:14	05:52:02	03:49:16	55% +0% -45% (3)	(159)
	6	Danielle Fischer	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	11	Nicole Luse	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	12	Carrie Mccoy	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

• Elizabeth Lyles: 52% (1-1)
• Amanda Stevens: 21% (4-1)
• Haley Chura: 14% (6-1)
• Uli Bromme: 4% (22-1)
• Darbi Roberts: 3% (29-1)
• Melanie McQuaid: 3% (32-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 2% (65-1)