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Ironman UK 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The Bolton course continues to be very tough, especially the bike has been very slow again this year. A bike adjustment of -18:18 (and a new bike course rating of -15:31) is among the slowest courses on the circuit, only Lanzarote and Wales are even slower. Lucy Gossage still managed to post a new female bike course record of 5:15:04, improving her 5:22 from 2013. (Tine Deckers was also under the old bike course record.) Compared to last year the overall times were a bit faster, an adjustment of -13:22 lead to winning times of 8:41 (male) and 9:26 (female) – slow compared to other courses, but a bit faster than last year.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:19 04:52:35 02:50:09 08:41:13 -15:48 US$ 10000
2 Markus Thomschke GER 00:51:21 04:52:38 02:59:13 08:50:03 -15:23 US$ 5000
3 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:53:25 05:04:50 02:53:36 08:58:50 06:13 US$ 3250
4 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:51:14 04:56:46 03:05:32 08:59:48 -11:12 US$ 2500
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:45:35 05:11:19 03:03:05 09:05:35 -01:00 US$ 1750
6 Patrick Evoe USA 00:54:10 05:10:09 03:03:15 09:14:33 03:40 US$ 1250
7 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:49:01 05:12:03 03:16:57 09:24:31 22:14 US$ 750
8 Chris Whitcombe GBR 00:48:52 05:32:56 03:25:25 09:55:00 n/a US$ 500
9 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:51:16 05:21:13 03:43:17 10:06:20 46:13
10 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:59:16 05:32:03 03:30:57 10:09:21 21:19
Romain Guillaume FRA 00:45:37 04:54:41 DNF
Peter Kern GER 00:53:26 05:30:36 DNF

Kirill and Markus secured their Kona slots by finishing on the top spots. Andrej Vistica and Harry Wiltshire improved their totals, but at least Harry is likely to drop beyond #40 after next weekend’s races. Rom Guillaume was also looking for a good result, but after his DNF he needs to re-asses his Kona plans.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:56:13 05:15:04 03:08:20 09:26:05 -05:33 US$ 10000
2 Tine Deckers BEL 00:55:19 05:20:00 03:22:28 09:45:21 02:22 US$ 5000
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:54:02 05:53:44 03:14:44 10:13:18 04:20 US$ 3250
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 00:58:45 05:57:12 03:18:44 10:23:42 -07:25 US$ 2500
5 Vicky Gill GBR 01:07:21 06:04:39 04:55:14 12:16:25 1:45:26 US$ 1750
Kristin Moeller GER 01:01:24 DNF

Winner Lucy Gossage was already safe for Kona before the UK race, and Tine Deckers scored well enough to move into “safe territory” for a July slot. Only two weeks after Frankfurt Katja Konschak raced another IM and is now 100% certain of a July slot.

Ironman Canada 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMCanadaUpdate July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the predictions table below.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 08:39:33 Uli Bromme (USA) 09:28:13
2014 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:16:10 Bree Wee (USA) 09:46:58
2015 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:49:46 Danielle Mack (USA) 09:46:19

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:53:03 04:58:32 02:54:28 08:49:46
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:40 04:56:18 03:01:24 08:50:30
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:02 04:58:35 02:59:13 08:54:45

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Danielle Mack USA 01:01:49 05:23:53 03:16:09 09:46:19
2 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:57:47 05:22:43 03:23:44 09:48:23
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:01 05:32:14 03:16:03 09:55:06

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:10 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Swim overall 00:48:22 Barrett Brandon 2015-07-26
Bike overall 04:31:34 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Run overall 02:40:34 Jeff Symonds 2014-07-27
Total female 09:28:13 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:53:09 Anna Cleaver 2014-07-27
Bike female 05:13:51 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Run female 03:06:53 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada is – 03:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 01:25 00:02 -00:39 02:59 24 01:25 00:02 -00:39 02:59
2014 03:08 -00:04 -03:19 -00:21 15 of 17 02:17 -00:01 -01:59 01:19
2015 -15:22 -00:06 -14:14 -03:02 23 of 33 -03:36 -00:03 -06:04 -00:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada is a P-2000 race. It will be an MPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Andy Potts USA 08:25:41 08:22:46 00:46:43 04:42:27 02:51:31 100% +0% -0% (13) 8
2 9 Callum Millward NZL 08:33:00 08:26:16 00:48:15 04:46:39 02:53:07 74% +0% -26% (4) 17
3 7 Michael Weiss AUT 08:33:15 08:32:02 00:53:45 04:35:52 02:58:37 91% +9% -0% (14) 25
4 1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:35:14 08:33:02 00:50:44 04:49:21 02:50:08 80% +0% -20% (19) 29
5 6 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:41:28 08:37:34 00:50:18 04:36:47 03:09:23 78% +8% -14% (29) 50
6 2 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:42:50 08:52:03 00:52:43 04:44:58 03:00:09 41% +36% -23% (17) 96
7 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:43:16 09:00:17 00:49:47 04:44:44 03:03:46 41% +4% -56% (20) 127
8 4 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:37 08:50:23 00:52:35 04:50:17 02:57:44 56% +13% -31% (28) 90
9 13 Pedro Gomes POR 08:45:56 08:40:43 00:51:54 04:52:24 02:56:39 65% +5% -30% (22) 57
10 14 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:49:43 08:50:54 00:48:23 04:51:44 03:04:36 51% +3% -46% (21) 93
11 28 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:54:27 08:55:08 00:53:24 04:48:45 03:07:18 57% +12% -31% (13) 103
12 10 Ben Collins USA 08:56:19 08:58:11 00:48:49 04:53:35 03:08:56 100% +0% -0% (2) (118)
13 19 Derek Garcia USA 08:58:26 09:04:39 00:53:09 04:50:54 03:09:23 81% +7% -12% (10) 151
14 11 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:58:31 09:11:37 00:54:08 04:56:28 03:02:55 59% +40% -1% (8) 171
15 8 Swen Sundberg GER 09:02:41 08:59:02 00:52:45 04:54:07 03:10:49 55% +1% -44% (17) 121
16 16 Simon Billeau FRA 09:06:47 09:03:29 00:54:28 04:49:49 03:17:29 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
17 12 Elliot Holtham CAN 09:07:02 09:13:36 00:53:10 05:00:01 03:08:50 22% +42% -37% (6) 181
18 29 Nathan Champness CAN 09:21:08 09:24:56 00:56:58 04:55:39 03:23:32 100% +0% -0% (2) (212)
19 27 Anthony Toth CAN 09:28:35 09:29:45 00:57:39 05:08:38 03:17:18 20% +11% -69% (17) 226
20 26 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:30:24 09:38:11 00:52:40 04:26:37 04:06:07 22% +4% -74% (9) 247
21 17 Scott Bradley USA 09:30:47 09:34:57 01:02:02 05:01:11 03:22:34 100% +0% -0% (2) (241)
22 20 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:31:06 09:36:24 00:54:45 05:05:58 03:25:23 47% +53% -0% (2) (244)
23 24 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:32:26 09:37:12 00:54:35 05:16:01 03:16:50 45% +26% -29% (14) 244
24 22 Andrew Langfield USA 09:48:21 09:56:12 00:57:27 05:25:59 03:19:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (275)
25 21 Elmar Heger GER 09:51:49 10:03:02 00:56:25 05:09:20 03:41:04 44% +23% -33% (6) 284
26 25 Matt Shanks USA 09:55:35 09:57:46 00:59:29 05:22:56 03:28:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (279)
27 18 Andrew Fast USA 10:28:50 10:38:34 00:58:13 05:22:42 04:02:55 19% +28% -52% (4) (297)
23 Jeff Manson CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Andy Potts is the clear favorite, he has always been racing well in his summer Ironman races. Behind him it’s unclear who will race, some have already secured their Kona slots or are very close and may skip Whistler to prepare for Kona:

  • Andy Potts: 52% (1-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 9% (10-1)
  • Callum Millward: 7% (14-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Andy Potts still needs his validation race, while Michael Weiss (not shown) is already safe and unlikely to race.

KPR_Whistler

Ironman Lake Placid 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMLakePlacidUpdate July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, I have crossed them out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005  (no MPROs) Heather Fuhr (USA) 09:45:06
2006 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:38:18  (no WPROs)
2007  (no MPros) Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:40:20
2008 Francisco Pontano (ARG) 08:43:32 Caitlin Snow (USA) 09:51:00
2009 Maik Twelsiek (GER) 08:36:37 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:29:36
2010 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:39:34 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:27:30
2011 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:25:15 Heather Wurtele (CAN) 09:19:03
2012 Andy Potts (USA) 08:25:07 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:47:39
2013 Andy Potts (USA) 08:43:29 Jennie Hansen (USA) 09:35:06
2014 Kyle Buckingham (ZAF) 08:38:43 Amber Ferreira (USA) 09:31:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:52:04 04:43:47 02:57:49 08:38:43
2 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:28 04:50:33 03:07:08 08:51:26
3 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:09 04:55:07 03:03:23 08:59:22

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:13 05:19:33 03:08:35 09:31:28
2 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:03:46 05:18:31 03:10:04 09:38:14
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:07:26 05:19:18 03:07:31 09:40:04

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:25:07 Andy Potts 2012-07-22
Swim overall 00:45:01 Andy Potts 2012-07-22
Bike overall 04:33:33 TJ Tollakson 2011-07-24
Run overall 02:48:20 Viktor Zyemtsev 2006-07-23
Total female 09:19:03 Heather Wurtele 2011-07-24
Swim female 00:50:48 Tereza Macel 2009-07-26
Bike female 05:07:44 Amy Marsh 2010-07-25
Run female 02:57:05 Caitlin Snow 2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 03:31.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -01:26 02:29 -08:54 03:46 21 -01:26 02:29 -08:54 03:46
2006 -17:02 00:31 -13:50 -06:43 29 -09:14 01:30 -11:22 -01:29
2007 -06:56 01:00 -11:44 -01:47 18 -08:28 01:20 -11:29 -01:35
2008 -00:13 00:25 -04:39 00:48 38 -06:24 01:06 -09:47 -00:59
2009 -02:22 00:01 -07:53 -00:56 39 -05:36 00:53 -09:24 -00:58
2010 02:59 -03:02 -03:17 01:43 44 -04:10 00:14 -08:23 -00:31
2011 00:33 -02:54 -03:46 03:02 24 -03:30 -00:13 -07:43 -00:01
2012 -03:45 00:40 -06:21 01:36 16 -03:31 -00:06 -07:33 00:11
2013 -02:42 00:12 -04:38 02:09 32 -03:26 -00:04 -07:14 00:24
2014 -04:18 -02:03 -03:57 03:35 24 of 29 -03:31 -00:16 -06:54 00:43

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid is a P-2000 race. It will be a WPRO race only and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Heather Jackson USA 09:26:29 09:24:12 00:58:49 05:13:30 03:09:10 19% +56% -25% (4) 20
2 2 Kelly Williamson USA 09:35:09 09:30:50 00:53:19 05:36:38 03:00:12 77% +12% -11% (12) 29
3 4 Amber Ferreira USA 09:44:01 09:49:32 00:55:57 05:22:14 03:20:50 51% +25% -24% (14) 64
4 17 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:58:47 10:06:52 01:00:01 05:34:27 03:19:20 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (102)
5 15 Beth Shutt USA 10:02:20 09:57:28 01:00:39 05:31:52 03:24:50 68% +32% -0% (8) 86
6 5 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 10:15:39 10:41:13 00:55:03 05:55:42 03:19:54 25% +0% -75% (3) (167)
7 14 Molly Roohi USA 10:19:41 10:17:30 01:04:50 05:39:23 03:30:28 100% +0% -0% (4) (123)
8 12 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:20:46 10:46:59 01:03:03 05:39:42 03:33:01 20% +49% -31% (4) 168
9 8 Kate Bruck USA 10:24:28 10:23:40 01:03:49 05:49:26 03:26:12 100% +0% -0% (3) 141
10 7 Neilia Bliss USA 10:25:33 10:29:09 01:01:59 05:43:38 03:34:56 100% +0% -0% (2) (154)
11 11 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:30:58 10:29:01 01:02:03 05:43:03 03:40:52 100% +0% -0% (5) (154)
12 6 Christine Avelar USA 10:48:55 10:51:12 00:55:51 05:45:15 04:02:49 100% +0% -0% (2) (169)
13 9 Florence Chretien USA 11:35:20 11:46:06 00:58:54 06:04:29 04:26:56 65% +25% -10% (6) (173)
3 Alicia Kaye USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Erin Green USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
13 Jodie Robertson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
16 Nicole Valentine USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Heather Jackson is the favorite – she’s following a similar race plan to last year when she qualified by winning IM Coeur d’Alene. All she needs this year is to finish. Kelly Williamson is unlikely to race, she has been tending an issue that prevented her from racing well since IM Texas.

  • Heather Jackson: 38% (2-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 36% (2-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 18% (4-1)
  • Beth Shutt: 5% (19-1)

KPR Situation

In addition to Heather, there are only two other athletes who are looking for a Kona slot: Alicia Kaye who is practically safe but wants to gain some more IM experience and Jodie Robertson who wants to show that her second place at IM Texas wasn’t a fluke.

 KPR_LP

Ironman Switzerland 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMZürichUpdate July 13th: Matt Trautmann tweeted that he is injured and won’t be able to race in Zürich.

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, they are crossed out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Mathias Hecht (SUI)
Stefan Riesen (SUI)		 08:26:01
08:16:50		 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31
2014 Boris Stein (GER) 08:33:02 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 09:13:30
2015 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:21:19 Beth Gerdes (USA) 09:21:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:14 04:32:11 02:50:02 08:21:19
2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:50:47 04:33:04 03:00:53 08:28:57
3 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:55:16 04:44:47 02:47:07 08:31:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Beth Gerdes USA 01:00:53 05:13:40 03:01:24 09:21:05
2 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:55:12 05:02:07 03:24:13 09:26:37
3 Mareen Hufe GER 01:01:42 05:10:33 03:18:06 09:35:26

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:27:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2012-07-15
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 09:00:04 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Swim female 00:51:23 Celine Schaerer 2014-07-27
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:00:27 Kristin Moeller 2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 05:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19 42 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19
2006 15:11 01:11 04:45 -00:04 33 05:40 00:48 03:46 -03:41
2007 17:55 -01:00 10:22 01:14 35 09:45 00:12 05:58 -02:03
2008 09:14 -00:09 01:56 02:04 30 of 40 09:37 00:07 04:57 -01:01
2009 12:38 -00:46 07:20 05:08 37 10:14 -00:04 05:26 00:13
2010 07:40 -01:22 06:05 01:48 30 of 38 09:48 -00:17 05:32 00:29
2011 09:22 -02:29 01:22 06:20 20 09:44 -00:36 04:57 01:19
2012 06:43 -03:08 04:25 02:10 31 09:22 -00:55 04:53 01:25
2013 -09:48 -05:12 02:57 -05:29 38 07:14 -01:24 04:40 00:39
2014 00:04 -03:45 05:20 -00:22 28 of 36 06:31 -01:38 04:44 00:33
2015 -07:37 -02:51 00:59 -02:22 24 of 38 05:14 -01:44 04:23 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:18:44 08:28:31 00:53:18 04:29:48 02:50:38 75% +1% -25% (27) 19
2 79 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:19:15 08:36:03 00:48:36 04:34:39 02:50:59 43% +11% -46% (14) (42)
3 73 Timo Bracht GER 08:21:27 08:23:48 00:50:57 04:32:41 02:52:48 83% +8% -8% (26) 10
4 70 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:43 08:25:19 00:52:14 04:34:33 02:52:55 80% +0% -20% (6) 11
5 2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:29:06 08:48:01 00:49:29 04:32:06 03:02:31 49% +24% -27% (11) 80
6 8 Markus Fachbach GER 08:32:26 08:37:06 00:50:59 04:35:16 03:01:12 83% +0% -17% (17) 47
7 74 David Plese SLO 08:34:46 08:41:23 00:53:47 04:38:13 02:57:46 73% +5% -22% (16) 59
8 37 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:37:36 08:44:28 00:55:03 04:38:53 02:58:41 75% +0% -25% (10) 68
9 15 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:38:19 09:16:16 00:49:02 04:47:47 02:56:29 2% +39% -59% (9) 193
10 78 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:38:34 08:47:41 00:48:55 04:36:38 03:08:01 32% +12% -55% (10) 78
11 11 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:39:56 08:48:19 00:49:56 04:37:27 03:07:33 57% +14% -28% (9) 81
12 10 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:41:46 08:57:11 00:51:08 04:38:57 03:06:41 7% +35% -58% (8) 113
13 71 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:41:57 08:58:34 00:51:52 04:53:02 02:52:03 47% +0% -53% (4) (118)
14 32 Darby Thomas FIN 08:42:47 08:56:49 00:59:45 04:41:36 02:56:27 63% +10% -27% (7) 110
15 5 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:43:09 08:58:46 00:54:28 04:44:36 02:59:04 45% +32% -23% (9) 119
16 31 Pascal Ramali GER 08:46:28 09:13:59 01:00:17 04:34:43 03:06:28 27% +0% -73% (3) (184)
17 34 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:47:41 08:53:05 00:49:14 04:45:53 03:07:33 26% +32% -42% (14) 98
18 9 Christian Brader GER 08:48:30 08:59:28 00:57:46 04:47:06 02:58:38 74% +5% -21% (33) 124
19 40 Manuel Kueng SUI 08:49:03 09:06:54 00:47:23 04:30:11 03:26:29 11% +89% -0% (3) (158)
20 18 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:49:48 09:05:52 00:54:33 04:40:02 03:10:13 38% +62% -0% (4) 156
21 6 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:50:14 09:02:37 01:01:30 04:42:04 03:01:41 85% +11% -4% (55) 137
22 39 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:52:18 09:01:13 00:48:49 04:45:10 03:13:19 63% +8% -29% (23) 130
23 35 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:53:30 09:04:38 00:54:52 04:45:22 03:08:16 96% +0% -4% (16) 150
24 36 David Naesvik SWE 08:54:07 09:02:15 00:56:42 04:41:21 03:11:04 77% +0% -23% (13) 135
25 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:57:53 09:03:29 00:56:08 04:39:44 03:17:01 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
26 25 Tomas Mika CZE 08:59:05 09:08:17 00:56:36 04:56:24 03:01:06 84% +16% -0% (5) 161
27 28 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:01:55 09:11:35 00:54:49 04:44:15 03:17:51 56% +16% -28% (13) (171)
28 77 Marcel Bischof GER 09:02:00 09:15:43 00:58:14 04:50:07 03:08:40 83% +17% -0% (13) 190
29 76 Gergö Molnar HUN 09:07:31 09:18:13 00:51:24 04:51:13 03:19:54 42% +0% -58% (7) 197
30 22 Johan Kaerner SWE 09:11:02 09:27:37 01:00:48 04:49:37 03:15:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (221)
31 16 Nicholas Chase USA 09:25:31 09:42:32 00:53:46 04:57:40 03:29:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (257)
32 80 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:27:29 09:42:32 01:02:08 05:00:31 03:19:50 42% +23% -34% (11) 257
33 21 David Jilek CZE 09:27:51 09:39:13 00:59:45 04:57:49 03:25:17 64% +21% -15% (7) 252
34 17 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:28:47 09:43:21 00:53:44 05:03:14 03:26:48 33% +36% -31% (3) (260)
35 30 Lukas Polan CZE 09:40:58 09:56:55 01:04:19 05:05:31 03:26:08 30% +15% -55% (9) 277
36 72 Peter Kotland CZE 09:43:57 09:55:55 01:01:01 05:04:12 03:33:44 54% +26% -21% (21) 274
37 27 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:45:10 10:00:50 00:59:13 05:04:23 03:36:34 22% +10% -68% (10) 283
38 24 Martin Charles FRA 10:05:44 10:23:57 00:54:50 05:14:46 03:51:08 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (295)
39 38 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:07:37 10:52:28 01:14:31 05:00:25 03:47:41 7% +11% -82% (6) (303)
40 13 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 10:31:11 10:56:40 01:05:13 05:21:19 03:59:39 49% +0% -51% (2) (304)
41 23 David Krupicka CZE 10:46:09 10:59:26 01:06:33 05:20:26 04:14:10 100% +0% -0% (2) (304)
42 26 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:28:43 12:09:19 01:13:23 05:44:54 04:25:26 32% +25% -43% (35) 308
12 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Matthias Epping n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jan Hron n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Cyril Pochon FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Richard Westover GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
55 Lauren Capone USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Petr Bednar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 50 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:55:51 09:05:05 00:53:24 04:51:50 03:05:37 71% +0% -29% (6) 2
2 54 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:19:04 09:32:15 00:56:58 05:07:38 03:09:28 33% +31% -36% (5) 35
3 42 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:22:59 09:42:25 00:49:10 05:09:18 03:19:31 58% +0% -42% (4) (53)
4 49 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:28:44 09:39:17 01:03:04 04:59:57 03:20:42 42% +0% -58% (17) 48
5 62 Kristin Moeller GER 09:29:29 09:35:55 01:04:37 05:17:06 03:02:46 83% +15% -2% (17) 41
6 41 Emma Bilham SUI 09:31:01 09:48:12 00:56:03 05:12:25 03:17:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (64)
7 53 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:33:38 09:44:05 01:03:20 05:17:43 03:07:34 55% +27% -18% (14) 59
8 59 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:39:21 09:52:31 00:58:29 05:01:55 03:33:58 59% +13% -29% (11) 74
9 43 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:41:12 09:57:37 00:56:42 05:19:43 03:19:47 30% +23% -46% (6) 87
10 56 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:52:00 09:59:37 00:55:32 05:25:09 03:26:19 65% +0% -35% (11) 91
11 52 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:53:54 10:03:46 01:13:12 05:17:23 03:18:19 100% +0% -0% (12) 97
12 51 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:59:04 10:12:55 01:04:17 05:16:07 03:33:40 56% +25% -19% (4) 116
13 60 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:59:37 10:07:05 01:03:06 05:19:24 03:32:07 68% +0% -32% (7) 102
14 44 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:00:41 10:19:21 01:12:19 05:20:07 03:23:16 70% +0% -30% (5) 129
15 46 Petra Krejcova CZE 10:02:28 10:14:57 01:04:03 05:33:01 03:20:23 100% +0% -0% (2) (118)
16 48 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:12 10:25:39 01:01:26 05:18:33 03:38:14 11% +38% -51% (12) 149
17 47 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:10:42 10:21:50 01:03:21 05:31:15 03:31:06 61% +20% -19% (11) 134
18 58 Nicole Woysch GER 10:18:15 10:54:33 01:00:29 05:24:54 03:47:53 22% +3% -75% (21) (169)
19 61 Jana Candrova CZE 10:18:51 10:36:13 01:07:49 05:26:20 03:39:41 68% +2% -30% (14) 163
45 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
57 Diane Luethi SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

The following graphs show who is in a position to improve their KPR score to move beyond “the bubble” where qualifying comes down to everybody’s results on the last day of racing.

Male Participants

KPR_Zurich:Men

Female Participants

KPR_Zurich_Women

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his good results at the end of 2014, Clemente is the slight statistical favorite, but he’s been struggling lately (including a DNF in Frankfurt). Ronnie Schildknecht has won this race eight times before but he faces strong competition by Timo, Jan and Matt, most of whom still need the Kona points that come with a good finish.

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 26% (3-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 18% (5-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 18% (5-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 8% (11-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

If Daniela decides to race (she’s scheduled to race Roth just a week before), she’ll be the clear favorite. If she’s not racing, the top spot will be wide open.

  • Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 4% (23-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 4% (26-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 4% (27-1)

Yvonne Van Vlerken: Roth is My #1 Race

Yvonne Van Vlerken has been a perennial contender in long distance triathlon for the last ten years: Since her debut at Challenge Roth (8:51:55 in 2007) she has won a total of eleven IM-distance races and raced four times in Kona, with a best result of second in 2008. Last season she qualified again for Kona, but she declined her slot after racing Roth in July and instead focused on the buildup for the 2016 season.

Taking Care of Business: Kona Qualifying

When Ironman announced a new Ironman in the Netherlands, they also announced two Dutch athletes that would race there in August: Bas Diederen and Yvonne Van Vlerken. Bas raced IM Germany five weeks before, then won IM Maastricht but struggled in Kona and DNF’d. Yvonne’s racing plan was even tighter: She raced Roth and Maastricht within four weeks, and after she went sub-9 in Roth, she had her slowest Ironman finish so far in Maastricht, still winning the race.

After Maastricht it was time for Yvonne to set up her 2016 summer. She had two major goals for this year’s season: To race her favorite long-distance race in Roth but also to prepare well for Kona without racing too much over the summer. In order to do that, she needed to secure a safe spot for Kona 2016 as early as possible. A big first step towards that was to race IM Barcelona in October. She had to work extremely hard for the win – a 3:02 run and an 8:46 finish gave her a margin of less than two minutes over Kaisa Lehtonen who was shoulder-to-shoulder with her for most of the run. (Kaisa went on to win this year’s IM South Africa.)

With the fall season coming to Europe, Yvonne and her parter Per Bittner had the chance to travel to Australia and race the southern hemisphere season. While not taking first place in the races she started, she finished third at IM Western Australia and had two second places in the 70.3s in Mandurah and Ballarat. While that still left some doubt, it pretty much made her safe for a Kona slot. As she planned some more prep races in Europe where she could also score a few more points, she was able to relax a bit and plan her build-up towards Challenge Roth with coach Siri Lindley.

YvonneWA
(Photo: Yvonne finishing third at IM Western Australia. Credit: witsup)

Chasing Records in Roth

With her 8:46 in Barcelona 2015, Yvonne managed to take the first of Chrissie Wellington’s many records: Yvonne is the first women to finish ten Ironman-distance races in under nine hours, surpassing Chrissie’s mark of nine sub-9 finishes. For this year’s Challenge Roth, Yvonne is again looking for a good race and a fast finish. Here are some potential goals she is looking at:

  1. Improve her personal best (currently 8:43:07 from Florida 2013) or her fastest time in Roth (8:45:48 from 2008 which was the world best time for a female at that point)
  2. Add to her list of sub-9 finishes (10 sub-9s so far)
  3. Become the woman with the most wins in Roth. She’s currently tied at three wins with Chrissie Wellington (2009-11) and Paula Newby-Fraser back from the times when Roth was “Ironman Europe” (1992, 1994-95). Jürgen Zack has the most Roth wins with five (1994-96 and 1998-99), Chris McCormack has four wins (2004-7).
  4. Try to take the record for the fastest finish by a pair of athletes in one race. Yvonne likes to call this “Pärchen-Rekord“, a play on her partner’s first name (Per, pronounced like the English “pair”) and the German word for pair (either “Paar” or the diminutive “Pärchen”). This is another record currently held by Chrissie with her partner Tom Lowe dating back to Arizona 2010 with 16:47:57 (8:11:44 + 8:36:13). Yvonne’s and Per’s best is currently just eight minutes slower at 16:55:22 (8:04:29 + 8:50:53) from Roth last year. My predictions for them have a combined total for them of 17:10:53, so both of them will need to have great races to attack that record!

While this would allow her to break some more of Chrissie’s records, she freely admits that Chrissie was on another level and that she could never be as fast. A humble statement from the athlete that has gone sub-9 more often than any other woman!

Yvonne_Per
(Photo: Yvonne and Per after racing in Ingolstadt in early June. Yvonne won the Middle Distance, Per was second in the Olympic Distance race. Credit: Ingo Kutsche)

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