Challenge Roth 2016 (July 17th) – Predictions

ChallengeRothLogoUpdate July 11th: Daniela Ryf is a thrilling late addition to the women’s field. With her in the race I have recalculated my odds as well.

Update July 9th: Unfortunately, Meredith Kessler has to take care of an injury that was slowing her down in this season and won’t be racing Roth. Get better soon, MBK! I’ve also crossed out Susie Cheetham who announced a while ago that she won’t be able to race.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35
2014 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:56:00 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:38:53
2015 Nils Frommhold (GER) 07:51:28 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:50:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:47:33 04:09:30 02:51:47 07:51:28
2 Timo Bracht GER 00:47:37 04:20:42 02:45:33 07:56:31
3 David Dellow AUS 00:47:35 04:20:24 02:48:12 07:59:28

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:54:46 04:47:34 03:05:43 08:50:53
2 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:09 04:47:43 03:09:50 08:53:09
3 Anja Beranek GER 00:49:20 04:47:58 03:14:55 08:55:19

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:41:33 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Swim overall 00:45:57 Pete Jacobs 2009-07-12
Bike overall 04:09:13 Andrew Starykowicz 2015-07-12
Run overall 02:39:43 Rasmus Henning 2010-07-18
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:47:27 Ute Mueckel 2005-06-24
Bike female 04:36:33 Chrissie Wellington 2010-07-18
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:49.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29 28 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29
2006 12:19 01:18 06:23 03:08 41 15:10 01:13 09:57 04:18
2007 23:37 00:54 10:36 07:18 35 17:59 01:07 10:10 05:18
2008 21:38 01:58 06:55 08:02 40 18:54 01:20 09:21 05:59
2009 26:32 02:06 15:53 05:03 43 20:26 01:29 10:40 05:48
2010 18:19 00:29 06:54 05:38 43 20:05 01:19 10:02 05:46
2011 20:53 01:52 15:28 05:42 38 20:11 01:24 10:49 05:46
2012 14:26 02:25 05:11 04:43 50 19:28 01:31 10:06 05:38
2013 21:21 00:30 13:41 04:53 41 19:41 01:25 10:30 05:33
2014 10:21 -00:06 13:01 -01:13 37 18:45 01:15 10:45 04:52
2015 19:36 01:18 11:56 04:15 44 of 56 18:49 01:16 10:52 04:49

Male Race Participants

Roth does not have a “Pro” Category per se, so I may have missed some of the Professional athletes racing.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Jan Frodeno GER 07:55:26 08:11:20 00:45:24 04:20:13 02:44:48 80% +20% -0% (5) 1
2 1 Nils Frommhold GER 07:55:57 08:20:44 00:46:41 04:13:31 02:50:45 78% +0% -22% (7) 6
3 3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:13:32 08:35:20 00:47:26 04:26:41 02:54:24 46% +24% -30% (11) 40
4 7 Joe Skipper GBR 08:15:15 08:33:35 00:52:53 04:26:14 02:51:08 51% +27% -22% (11) 32
5 5 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:16:01 08:34:12 00:48:59 04:28:27 02:53:35 63% +24% -13% (15) 35
6 4 Per Bittner GER 08:16:09 08:42:19 00:47:41 04:27:20 02:56:07 52% +17% -31% (17) 64
7 6 Jan Raphael GER 08:24:21 08:38:32 00:47:23 04:34:25 02:57:32 91% +0% -9% (22) 53
8 8 Martin Jensen DEN 08:27:20 08:39:21 00:49:09 04:35:35 02:57:36 100% +0% -0% (3) (55)
9 9 Thomas Hellriegel GER 08:31:59 09:09:16 00:49:57 04:24:12 03:12:50 22% +8% -69% (6) (164)
10 10 Andreas Linden SWE 08:33:07 09:07:45 00:57:28 04:20:24 03:10:15 49% +0% -51% (2) (159)
11 21 Bernd Hagen GER 08:35:53 09:06:41 00:54:32 04:41:03 02:55:19 99% +1% -0% (13) (158)
12 14 Marcel Bischof GER 08:44:43 09:15:43 00:54:53 04:42:06 03:02:44 83% +17% -0% (13) 190
13 18 Xavier Diepart BEL 08:49:56 09:11:54 00:55:15 04:47:56 03:01:45 80% +14% -6% (8) (175)
14 24 Tjardo Visser NED 08:56:00 09:26:32 00:50:45 04:58:47 03:01:28 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (216)
15 16 Luke Dragstra CAN 08:59:05 09:27:35 00:52:01 04:47:49 03:14:15 14% +2% -84% (22) 220
16 23 Thomas Naasz NED 08:59:45 09:27:06 00:54:33 04:49:27 03:10:46 100% +0% -0% (5) 217
17 27 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:13:03 09:42:32 00:58:53 04:54:00 03:15:11 42% +23% -34% (11) 257
18 12 Christian Jais GER 09:20:36 09:55:28 00:54:55 04:48:38 03:32:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (274)
19 26 Jeremy Howard USA 09:43:52 10:14:55 00:51:24 05:14:35 03:32:53 48% +0% -52% (2) (291)
20 25 Rob Bobbaers BEL 09:44:50 10:18:08 00:59:17 04:55:46 03:44:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (292)
21 28 Henry Beck GER 09:57:56 10:35:08 00:47:42 04:49:21 04:15:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (297)
11 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
13 Tobias Heining GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
15 Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Nick Kastelein AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Lukas Storath GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jurgen Van Oevelen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Fabian Rahn GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:42:19 09:05:05 00:50:40 04:45:17 03:01:21 71% +0% -29% (6) 2
1 51 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:54:44 09:17:16 00:56:01 04:47:34 03:06:09 84% +0% -16% (23) 10
2 55 Meredith Kessler USA 08:56:01 09:17:50 00:48:23 04:54:13 03:08:25 65% +14% -20% (23) 12
3 53 Anja Beranek GER 08:59:25 09:19:16 00:49:40 04:48:56 03:15:49 83% +6% -11% (7) 15
4 52 Carrie Lester AUS 09:01:22 09:29:35 00:52:27 04:54:55 03:09:00 58% +24% -17% (18) 26
5 57 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:01:26 09:16:19 00:53:32 05:02:41 03:00:13 100% +0% -0% (4) 8
6 56 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:02:23 09:22:59 00:50:26 04:55:30 03:11:27 71% +4% -25% (17) 18
7 54 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:03:29 09:17:57 00:49:53 04:53:27 03:15:08 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
8 61 Laura Siddall GBR 09:12:12 09:43:20 00:56:05 04:54:19 03:16:47 41% +44% -15% (6) 55
9 60 Erika Csomor HUN 09:13:02 09:33:50 00:57:35 05:00:43 03:09:45 81% +0% -19% (33) 39
10 58 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:15:08 09:39:58 00:51:54 04:59:22 03:18:52 85% +5% -10% (12) 49
11 67 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:32:01 09:53:57 00:59:04 05:03:27 03:24:30 88% +0% -12% (7) 81
12 69 Kathryn Haesner NZL 09:35:09 10:24:49 00:55:41 05:15:59 03:18:30 41% +59% -0% (2) (148)
13 63 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:40:31 10:08:08 01:02:54 05:14:59 03:17:38 45% +23% -32% (6) (106)
14 68 Carla Van Rooijen NED 09:50:56 10:17:21 01:11:04 05:15:07 03:19:45 78% +22% -0% (6) 122
15 62 Caroline Gregory USA 09:51:50 10:20:21 00:54:32 05:28:50 03:23:28 59% +9% -32% (12) 131
16 64 Michelle Duffield AUS 09:55:28 10:20:34 01:00:08 05:21:03 03:29:17 77% +0% -23% (6) 132
17 74 Line Foss NOR 10:08:56 11:09:05 01:22:33 05:05:22 03:36:01 23% +24% -53% (4) (173)
18 66 Fabiola Corona MEX 10:13:29 10:48:25 00:57:27 05:30:23 03:40:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (169)
59 Rachel McBride CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
65 Franzi Bossow GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
70 Jenny Latham GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
71 Tereza Durdiakova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
72 Carole Fuchs THA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
73 Jenny Fletcher CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Daniela Zoll GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Kona Champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite for this race – he’d love to get close or even beat Andreas Reeler’s 7:41 from 2011. But based on the “raw numbers” last year’s winner Nils Frommhold could get close and will be there if “Frodo” shows any sign of weakness.

  • Jan Frodeno: 38% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 27% (3-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 10% (9-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 10% (9-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 8% (11-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is already the female with the most sub-9 finishes – she has ten, ahead of Chrissie Wellington’s nine. She has won in Roth three times (same number as Chrissie) and would like to move ahead in this statistic as well.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 36% (2-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 25% (3-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 16% (5-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 12% (7-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 7% (12-1)

Here are the odds after Daniela Ryf has been added to the field:

  • Daniela Ryf: 60% (1-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 14% (6-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 10% (9-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 10% (9-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 6% (17-1)
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