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Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Odds

With the race about to start, here is another excerpt from my “2013 Kona Rating Report” with my odds for Kona. Even though I have written this article a few weeks ago, not too many things have changed. To check out how they hold up on race day, please check out my “Live Predictions” at kona.trirating.com.

Male Winners

As usual, it is hard to pick a clear favorite. Last year’s winner Pete Jacobs knows how to be in top shape for October, but as usual he has been laying low for the season. Craig Alexander has also not had a stellar result in this season, but I’m sure he would love to go out with a bang. After these two, Andreas Raelert has qualified with a sub-8h time in Austria – but the time for his first Kona win is slowly running out. Eneko Llanos has had a great season so far, but has struggled to race well in Kona. Macca is an experienced competitor, but he hasn’t had a good Ironman result since winning in 2011. There are also a couple of long shots: Dirk Bockel has posted a number of strong results in Kona and has been focusing on this race for a while. Last year’s third placed Frederik Van Lierde produced a strong result in France, but does he have the potential to step it up? James Cunnama may have the potential to win Kona, but he probably will need a bit more experience to be able to produce a great Kona result.

Favorites

  • Craig Alexander 26% (3-1)
  • Pete Jacobs 23% (3-1)

In the Mix

  • Andreas Raelert 12% (7-1)
  • Eneko Llanos 10% (9-1)
  • Chris McCormack 8% (12-1)

Long Shots

  • Dirk Bockel 7% (11-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 5% (19-1)
  • James Cunnama 4% (24-1)

Female Winners

On the women’s side, I see four athletes who are a bit ahead of the rest: Caroline Steffen (good, but not stellar season with a lot of racing), Mirinda Carfrae (took care of validating early and has been laying low since then), defending champion Leanda Cave (also validated early, but has been dealing with an injury) and Rachel Joyce (good qualifying race in Texas, and hopefully took her usual “Kona infection” in the summer to allow for a decent Kona prep). The numbers are so close together that it’s almost impossible to objectively pick a race favorite. After these four, I decided to skip the “In the Mix” section and go straight to the “Long Shots”. Yvonne has had a great season so far, but other than a second place from 2008 she hasn’t had a good result in Kona. Jodie Swallow has only started IM racing this year, and she’s been always on the podium and steadily improved her times and pacing. But there haven’t been too many Kona rookies to win the race. Then there is Mary Beth Ellis – unbeaten outside of Kona. Maybe she’s ready to pull off a great Kona performance this year.

Favorites

  • Caroline Steffen 20% (4-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae 19% (4-1)
  • Leanda Cave 17% (5-1)
  • Rachel Joyce 16% (5-1)

Long Shots

  • Yvonne Van Vlercken 8% (12-1)
  • Jodie Swallow 6% (16-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis 4% (24-1)

Male TOP 3

Although there are only three spots available, I have four “safe bets” for the podium. Obviously, at least one won’t be able to make it – but it’s hard to pick which one is not. Andreas and Pete have been super-solid in Kona. Eneko was great this year, and Crowie was only once off the podium. Behind these, there are a few established “aging” athletes (Macca, Timo), a few solid racers still working to improve in Kona (Frederik, Dirk, Jordan, David, TO, Sebi) and a few that are either in Kona for the first time or still working to find a good Kona result (James, Ronnie, Bevan).

Safe Bets

  • Andreas Raelert 46%
  • Pete Jacobs 37%
  • Eneko Llanos 35%
  • Craig Alexander 31%

Knocking on the door

  • Frederik Van Lierde 24%
  • Chris McCormack 21% 
  • Dirk Bockel 19%

Outside Chances

  • James Cunnama 10%
  • Timo Bracht 8%
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 8%
  • Bevan Docherty 8%
  • Jordan Rapp 8%
  • David Dellow 7%
  • Timothy O’Donnell 7%
  • Sebastian Kienle 6%

Female TOP 3

For the girls, the best three picks are pretty obvious: Xena, Leanda and Rinnie. Next we have Yvonne with her long list of good results. The TOP3 odds for Rachel are almost the same as her winning chances – which means that statistically she either has a very good day and delivers a winning performance or she is “completely off” and either DNFs or finishes pretty far down the list. Mary Beth also has had some TOP3 worthy results, but she hasn’t had a Kona-winning worthy performance yet. Behind these, the odds drop pretty quickly, a lot of athletes that we have seen winning races in the season only have a very small statistical chance of a podium finish. However, we usually see at least one “break-through” performance in Kona – and it’ll be very interesting to see who will be that this year.

Safe Bets

  • Caroline Steffen 53%
  • Leanda Cave 44%
  • Mirinda Carfrae 38%

Knocking on the door

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken 35%
  • Rachel Joyce 24%
  • Mary Beth Ellis 22%

Outside Chances

  • Sonja Tajsich 10%
  • Anja Beranek 9%
  • Linsey Corbin 5%

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – How the Men’s Race May Unfold

In my free “2013 Kona Rating Report“, I’m having a long statistical look at the capabilities of the Pros racing Ironman Hawaii. Based on my data I can develop some predictions on how the race may play out. The graphs show for various points along the course who could be in the lead and who is back by how much. They are based only on previous race results. Other important aspects, such as the course dynamics (hills, wind etc.) and race dynamics (for example groups forming), are not taken into account. However, the graphs give a good indication of whom we can expect at the front of the race.

TOP 10

The first graph for the men focuses on the front end of the race. It shows all race leaders and the athletes I expect to finish in the Top 10:

Men2013Top10

Some of the highlights from this graph: 

  • Clayton Fettel appears to be the strongest swimmer in the field. However, he will fall back on the bike and then even further on the run, probably finishing by about 20 minutes behind the Kona winner. 
  • If Andy Starykowicz races true to his fantastic bike rating (based on his IMs in Florida and Arizona), he will quickly take the lead. He should bike in about 4:26. (For comparison, the bike record by Norman Stadler is 4:18, and last year’s best was a 4:33 by Sebastian Kienle). 
  • Unless some other athletes try to follow Andy (and risk blowing up on the run), Dirk Bockel should be the one who manages to stay closest. He should be about 5 minutes behind Andy, and as usual there will be a larger group coming in around 10 minutes back. 
  • Among the athletes who could try to make up more time (or loose less time) on the bike, I’m especially looking forward to how Sebastian Kienle is going to do. Based on his last year’s race (and hopefully better technical luck) and his recent performance in Las Vegas, he might be the one athlete to race much faster than his rating indicates. I would also expect that Pete and Crowie will try to force the “main pack” to break up and be active on the bike as they did the last two years. 
  • The field will come together on the first part of the run, and I expect the Top 10 athletes to be within 5 minutes at the half marathon mark. By then, Dirk Bockel should have taken the lead. Dirk’s lead won’t last long, as I expect Andreas and Crowie to overtake him, closely followed by Pete Jacobs. 
  • From a purely rating-based perspective, Andreas should win the race, but the difference between him and Crowie and Pete is so small that it’s too close to call. It would surely be great to see three athletes within less than a minute exiting the Energy Lab!

TOP US Pros

One of the “sub-races” within the main race is the question of who can be the best from his country. For example, there is a lot of interest for the top finisher from the US – so the next graph only shows Pros from the USA:

Men2013TopUS

The main data points on this graph (please note the different scale on the “distance” axis):

  • As discussed above, Andy Starykowicz has a good chance to take the lead early on the bike and hold on to it until shortly before the half-marathon mark. 
  • Behind him, a number of athletes will probably finish the bike in the “main pack” about 10 minutes back: Tim O’Donnell, TJ Tollakson, Andy Potts, Ben Hoffman and probably Jordan Rapp. 
  • Of these, TO is the best-rated runner, but I also see Jordan Rapp making up time on the run. It’ll probably depend on who has the best legs on race day to decide the first US pro, as the ratings indicate that the top 6 US athletes would finish within roughly 5 minutes. 
  • In order for the other US athletes to contend for “Best American”, Brandon, Ian, Matthew or Thomas will need a great bike (and probably an exceptional run as well). Then again, it wouldn’t be the first time that I’m underestimating Ian’s capabilities on race day.

TOP German Pros

The other “race within a race” is usually for the best German. This year might be a bit different as I see Andreas Raelert winning the race (or at least being on a podium spot), but here’s a look at the expectations for how the German Pros will do:

Men2013TopGerman

  • I expect to see the same four athletes as last year to be the first German pros, and they also should be able to finish in the Top 10. If Andi has his perfect day, he can win the race. If Sebi manages to improve on his race from last year, he may also be in the mix towards the end. Faris and Timo have finished a number of times in the Top 10, but I can’t really see them pulling off a win or even a podium. 
  • Behind these, Jan Raphael and Andi Böcherer would love to get a Top 10 spot. From what I see, they would have to show a notable improvement on the bike (Jan) and/or the run (Andi). (Update: Andi Böcherer won’t be able to race in Hawaii.)
  • The other four athletes (Horst, Per, Christian and Stefan) are either Kona rookies or haven’t had a good Kona result yet. I’m sure they’d love to mix it up with the “big guys”, but their previous results indicate that they will probably be about 20 minutes back after the bike, and none of them has the run speed to make up time on the run. A Top 20 place would be a good result for them and a solid base for qualifying in 2014.

Eneko Llanos in Numbers

The biggest hope in Kona for my Spanish friends at BCN Triathlon is Eneko Llanos. They’ve asked me to have a closer look at him – here is what I put together on him and his chances for Kona 2013. (If you’re a Spanish speaker, check out the Spanish version: Análisis de las posibilidades de Eneko en Kona on BCN Triathlon.)

Overview

Eneko Llanos is one of the few athletes whose career started before 2005 (which is how far back my results go), but as far as I know I’ve captured all his Ironman-distance results. Here’s a table of the IM-distance races I have in my database for Eneko:

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2005-07-11       08:38:00 08:35:13 08:35:13 4
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 00:50:38 04:46:10 02:54:53 08:31:41 08:33:30 08:34:19 2
IM Austria 2006-07-16 00:45:39 04:33:59 02:51:21 08:15:11 08:28:33 08:32:05 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:53:45 04:29:26 02:55:00 08:22:28 08:18:35 08:28:06 5
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 00:49:18 04:53:18 03:01:33 08:49:39 08:38:01 08:30:40 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 00:46:25 04:28:06 02:48:28 08:06:06 08:26:09 08:29:43 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 00:51:47 04:38:12 02:51:43 08:26:00 08:24:11 08:28:41 7
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:00:49 08:25:29 08:28:05 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:51:39 04:33:27 02:51:49 08:20:50 08:14:25 08:25:47 2
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:00:21 08:19:23 08:24:41 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:51:06 04:37:17 03:05:03 08:37:55 08:26:25 08:24:58 14
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:47:49 04:53:26 02:50:21 08:37:43 08:31:20 08:25:58 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 00:47:01 04:24:26 02:48:01 08:02:33 08:15:34 08:24:30 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:51:38 04:39:23 02:47:03 08:22:02 08:21:55 08:24:09 7
IM Texas 2011-05-21 00:49:28 04:25:56 02:49:04 08:08:20 08:16:23 08:23:06 1
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:48:47 04:20:54 02:46:09 07:59:38 08:11:50 08:21:35 1
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:47:26 04:27:44 02:43:46 08:02:23 08:09:30 08:20:01 4
IM Melbourne 2013-03-24 (00:20:30) (04:28:50) (02:43:35) (07:36:08) n/a 1
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:46:10 04:25:32 02:44:12 07:59:58 08:13:08 08:18:56 1

(Eneko himself has contacted me to note that the Germany 2005 result I have listed in the table is actually from his brother Hector. I have updated my database accordingly, but the general picture for Eneko doesn’t change much.)

In addition to the splits there are three main data points for each race:

  • “Total” is the finishing time for each race, as it appeared in the results
  • “Adjusted” is the course- and condition-neutral time, allowing a comparison of results from different races
  • “Rating” is an age-weighted average of all previous adjusted times in order to compare different athletes, even if they haven’t raced each other
It’s easier to spot trends and anomalies in a graphical version of this data:
EnekoRating

Development

Before becoming focused on long-distance racing, Eneko was a good short-distance racer (competing twice in the Olympics); and he continues to race very well in XTerra races. He seems to like the Maui race (usually a few weeks after Kona), and he won the Kona/Maui “double” a couple of times.

His IM career started in 2005, when he finished IM Germany and Western Australia slightly above 8:30. He qualified for Hawaii in Austria (adjusted time again in 8:30 range), and Kona 2006 was his best race so far (adjusted 8:18) and he finished 5th.

In 2007 he won his “home IM” in Lanzarote (with a relatively slow time, even adjusted) and then posted a fast time Roth (even if the 8:06 is adjusted to his “then typical” 8:26). Again, he had a solid Kona race and finished 7th. He continued to deliver great results in 2008, when he got a 2nd place in Frankfurt and also in Kona. He was leading the Kona race for a bit on the run, but Craig Alexander took the lead in the Energy Lab, and won by merely two minutes over Eneko.

He used a similar approach in 2009 – and it started well as he got another 2nd in Germany (contending for the win by breaking Macca, but being ultimately run down by Timo Bracht). However, his Kona race was a disappointment and he finished in 14th place. He seemed to take a less Kona-centric approach in 2010. He raced and won again in Lanzarote, and went to Roth to post a fast time, finishing in 3rd place in 8:02. He then raced in Kona, finishing in a solid 7th with a good 2:47 run. By then he had established himself as a solid Top10 Kona athlete, but other than Lanzarote he hadn’t won any IM races and it was clear that he would have to improve further to contend for wins in the big races.

He absolutely stepped up his game in 2011. He raced IM Texas (which was the North American regional championship that year), and won in convincing fashion. He then focused on Kona, but had a DNF with gastric problems. He recovered enough to race the XTerra championship in Maui, and then decided to race Arizona in November to get the required points for Kona qualification. He finished with three PRs (bike, run and overall), posting his first sub-8h time. What might have been as important than winning the race is that he had to fight it out with Paul Amey in the last few kilometers of the run and came away as the winner which probably gave him some extra confidence.

LlanosYasHotel

In Melbourne 2012, he had another great race, even if he didn’t win it: He placed 4th in what was probably the tightest IM distance race: There was a group of four athletes running together for the first half of the marathon. Even if the run course might have been a bit short, his adjusted 8:09 was the best IM result so far. He had enough points to have secured a Kona slot, where he had another frustrating DNF with two flats and crashing on his bike.

He continued to improve even further in 2013. This time, he won in Melbourne (Australasian Regional Championship) against a stacked field in a race with a shortened swim. (The times are so different from a full IM that I don’t include them in my ratings.) In the summer, he also won the European Championships in Frankfurt, another very strong field and posting his second sub-8h time.

Since the end of 2010 he has improved his rating from an already Top 10 worthy 8:24 down to a 3rd best 8:18:56 (my currently best rated athletes are Andreas and Crowie, both with a 8:16:14). Can he improve even further or race at his recent level in Kona?

Kona 2013

It’s hard to predict what result Eneko is going to have in Kona. It is obvious that he’s been in excellent shape all season and that he has everything that would be needed to win Kona. However, aside from one 2nd place, he hasn’t had really great results in Kona. I think he was trying to address this aspect when he started to work with Dave Scott this year, one of the absolute best authorities on how to race well in Kona.

The main point against Eneko winning Kona this year seems a bit strange at first: He has won two big races this year. It is hard to deliver two good Ironman races in a season, and three is extremely difficult. Usually the motto “to be in shape for Kona, you can’t be in good shape for the summer” applies – I can’t think of any athlete who has won Frankfurt and Kona in the same year.

But I’m sure he’ll try his best to be in the mix – my prediction for him is that he’ll be either in the Top5 or blow up trying.

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – How the Women’s Race May Unfold

Based on my data I can develop some predictions on how the race may play out. The graphs show for various points along the course who could be in the lead and who is back by how much. They are based only on previous race results. Other important aspects, such as the course dynamics (hills, wind etc.) and race dynamics (for example groups forming), are not taken into account. However, the graphs give a good indication of whom we can expect at the front of the race.

Here’s a look at the front end of the women’s race:

Women2013

Some highlights:

  • I expect Jodie Swallow to set the pace for the first two legs. She’s been leading by a huge margin after the swim and bike in all her races so far. She might race a bit more cautious in Kona, but I can’t see her not being at least in the lead group on the bike. 
  • The main athlete with a better bike rating than Jodie is “Xena” (Caroline Steffen). Nominally, she’ll probably loose four to five minutes to Jodie in the swim, and should then at least narrow the gap to about two minutes at the end of the bike. I expect her to take the lead early in the run, and this year, she should be able to hold on to the lead and win her first Kona title. 
  • I expect a number of women to finish the swim close to Caroline: Rachel, Leanda, Mary Beth and Anja Beranek. It’ll be interesting to see if they try to follow Caroline on the bike – similar to what we saw last year (hopefully without any penalties). Based on the ratings, Rachel and Leanda should be able to run a little bit better than Caroline, so it could become a really close and interesting run if they finish the bike with Xena. 
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken also has a slightly better bike rating than Jodie, and she also has a pretty good run. If she has a great swim and manages to not loose more than five to seven minutes, she should quickly bike into the “main group” and help them speed things up. However, a lot of things have to go right for her (and wrong for the others) in order to contend for a Kona win this year.
  • The two strongest runners in the field are Mirinda Carefrae and Sonja Tajsich. Compared to Xena, they should be able to make up 13 minutes (Rinnie) and 8 minutes (Sonja). Both have been relatively quite this year, but I’m sure that they will try to deliver a special performance in Kona. It also seems that Rinnie was focusing 100% on Kona this year and wants to deliver a better performance than last year when she seemed to be running to the front but ran out of steam.

The race for the title is very interesting, but even more athletes will be happy with a Top 10 or Top 12 finish. This should give women athletes enough KPR points for a Kona 2014 spot – as long as they finish a validation race and maybe add a decent 70.3 result. Behind the Top 9 athletes that I’ve put into the first graph, there is a little gap to the next athletes – but then there is a group of 10 athletes that will probably finish within seven minutes:

Women2013Top10

These athletes will be relatively close together after the bike, but positions will change a lot on the run:

  • The better runners (Liz, Gina, Linsey and also Natascha) should come out at the front of these athletes with expected run times between 3:10 and 3:14h. 
  • Caitlin Snow runs on the almost the same level as Rinnie (3:02 vs. 3:00 for Rinnie), and she should be able to advance from almost last in the women’s Pro race after the bike to close to the Top 10. 
  • Athletes such as Meredith, Rebekah, Heather, Amy or Erika are expected to run a bit slower, probably in the 3:16 to 3:28 range. However, any of them is a good enough athlete that they may have a great day and finish much higher than expected.

Rachel Joyce Profile

This is third guest post written by Stef Hanson, the Chief of witsup.com. This is the third (and for now, last) in our series on female Kona contenders on each other’s sites. (If you want my more “numbers-oriented posts”, head over to witsup.com!) Thanks, again Stef, and enjoy your time on the island!

The last time we saw Rachel ‘Joycey’ Joyce, hit the Ironman course was at Ironman Texas in May where she destroyed the field, along with some of the men’s field as well. It was her third sub-nine hour performance (after Ironman Melbourne and Challenge Roth in 2012) and she lead from start to finish. However, despite this outstanding performance in May, Joyce has been quiet on the racing scene this year due to illness and injuries.

“It’s been a frustrating year. At the end of last year I suffered almost getting tonsillitis every two months and I went into a lot of races with minimal training,” Joyce explained. “It was almost like a rush to get fit enough to be able to do the race. “ With possibly the most frustrating being when she was sick in the week leading into the Ironman World Championships, where she ended up 11th despite feeling less than ordinary.

JoyceHydrates

“I got some good results, but I kind of surprised myself with what I could do with so much interrupted training,” she continued. “Then after Kona last year I got my tonsils out and so I went into 2013 thinking, I’m going to be really healthy now, I’m going to be able to race lots, you know, and then it was frustrating because I would get little niggles that would come at the wrong time and I’ve not been able to get out there and race! Racing is the fun bit of it all!”

However, come Ironman Texas time, all the hard work in training paid off with a strong race, showcasing her strength across all three disciplines and a 4:42:29 bike split that fell within 4.6% of the winning men’s time. However, she turned her ankle in the dying stages of the run in Texas. Although it hurt at the time, when the adrenalin is pumping, it sometimes doesn’t seem too bad. “I didn’t really think too much about it after the race. I put some ice on it, but that was about it, and I usually have a week off running after an Ironman anyway, so I didn’t think much more about it until I went running that week later and ended up only running for 10mins and the foot really hurt.” After a while Joyce got it checked out and it turned out she had a slight tear in her tendon, so it meant three weeks off running, and not really being able to get to a start line. The only race she was going to have a hit out at was an Olympic distance event in Boulder, but with all of the floods, the swim was cancelled, so racing seemed pointless. So the decision was made to turn her focus on getting ready for Kona, and not racing as much as she would normally like.

So back to the Kona mission – Joyce finished sixth (2009), fifth (2010) and fourth (2011), and each year her time improved also, plus her 11th last year when she was sick. You don’t need to be a mathematical genius to recognise what direction she is heading towards. Her best effort yet is her 9:06:57, 2011 performance, and we’re convinced that if she is in the shape that she was at Ironman Texas in May, she will no doubt be a real contender.

“I’d say that I’m actually in slightly better shape than what I was before Texas. The irony is that I had other issues going into Texas, haha! Not long before the event, I had just been for a swim and I had a few words with Dave (Dave Scott, Joyce’s coach) and he said ‘oh Rachel, a couple of weeks ago I thought you were a sinking ship, but you managed to right yourself’, haha!” Joyce explained. “But, leading into Kona, yeah I’ve had a few issues, but it’s been a much more consistent build.”

Joyce joined up with Dave Scott early this year after being with her previous coach, Matt Dixon of Purple Patch for three years, and if anyone knows the big island, it’s this man. We’d tell you more about him, but, best you google the great man as this is a site dedicated to women in triathlon, and besides, we can’t fit in his resume in this article. So we expect that Joyce will be raring to go for many reasons – redemption from her shot at the World Champs last year, her frothiness to toe a start line, and one of the masters of the island in her ear. These of course combined with her solid work ethic could be a lethal combination for her fellow competitors.

(Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

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