Analysis

Female Winners

There is a similar story to men’s battle between Sebi and Frodo on the women’s side: Last year’s champion Mirinda Carfrae had her typical quiet year, but she is always ready to race in October. Based on her previous Kona races, she is still the statistical favorite. But Rinny will be challenged by Frankfurt winner and 70.3 Champion Daniela Ryf who has continued her amazing development from last year. Rachel Joyce is relatively close to these two but hasn’t had a great season so far. The low numbers of the Long Shots show how dominant the chances of the main contenders are.

Favorites

• Mirinda Carfrae 38% (2-1)
• Daniela Ryf 22% (3-1)

In the Mix

• Rachel Joyce 17% (5-1)

Long Shots

• Caroline Steffen 4% (27-1)
• Eva Wutti 3% (29-1)
• Leanda Cave 2% (52-1)

Female TOP 3

For the women, there are good chances for the same podium as last year: Rinny, Rachel and Daniela are safe podium bets. But repeat podiums in Kona are very race – there have only been two ever: 2002 to 2004 saw Natascha, Lori Bowden and Nina Kraft in different order on the podium. Therefore we can expect at least one other athlete on this year’s podium. The likeliest candidates are Kona rookies Eva Wutti and Angela Naeth, and the more experienced Meredith Kessler, Leanda Cave, Caroline Steffen or Jodie Swallow.

Safe Bets

• Mirinda Carfrae 46% (1-1)
• Rachel Joyce 46% (1-1)
• Daniela Ryf 44% (1-1)

Knocking on the Door

• Eva Wutti 25% (3-1)
• Meredith Kessler 18% (4-1)
• Leanda Cave 17% (5-1)
• Caroline Steffen 16% (5-1)
• Jodie Swallow 15% (6-1)
• Angela Naeth 14% (6-1)

Outside Chances

• Julia Gajer 11% (8-1)
• Haley Chura 9% (10-1)
• Liz Blatchford 3% (29-1)
• Mary Beth Ellis 2% (39-1)

(Photo: Rinny close the finish line in 2014. Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Male Winners

This year will be quite interesting as it is very hard to pick a clear favorite based purely on numbers. For Kona the previous year’s winner will always be in the mix. Defending champion Sebastian Kienle has shown some good races this year, so there is every reason to expect him close to the front again. But he is overshadowed by last year’s third, Jan Frodeno. Jan had a dominant race in Frankfurt, improving Sebi’s course record from last year and also winning the 70.3 Champs.

Based on the data the next athlete to consider is Marino Vanhoenacker. He still has to show that he can have one more great race in Kona. Frederik Van Lierde, the 2013 Champion, will be in the mix as well. Nils Frommhold seems to be ready to take another step forward after his 6th place last year and winning Challenge Roth in the summer.

Favorites

• Jan Frodeno 22% (3-1)
• Sebastian Kienle 19% (4-1)

In the Mix

• Marino Vanhoenacker 16% (5-1)
• Frederik Van Lierde 12% (7-1)
• Nils Frommhold 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

• Brent McMahon 4% (26-1)
• Ivan Rana 3% (28-1)
• Andi Boecherer 3% (36-1)
• Andy Potts 2% (50-1)

Male TOP 3

Sebi and Frodo are also my safe bets for a podium, but the third spot is pretty open. If Marino has a good race he has a good shot at the podium, but Frederik will make it hard. With Nils Frommhold and Andi Böcherer there are two more German podium contenders – we may easily end up with a German podium! Andy Potts is the big American hope for a podium spot.

Safe Bets

• Sebastian Kienle 51% (1-1)
• Jan Frodeno 44% (2-1)

Knocking on the Door

• Marino Vanhoenacker 34% (2-1)
• Nils Frommhold 29% (3-1)
• Frederik Van Lierde 28% (3-1)
• Andi Böcherer 27% (3-1)
• Andy Potts 17% (5-1)

Outside Chances

• Clemente Alonso 13% (7-1)
• Brent MacMahon 13% (7-1)
• Ivan Rana 8% (12-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht 8% (12-1)
• Bas Diederen 6% (17-1)
• Andreas Raelert 6% (17-1)
• Jordan Rapp 4% (24-1)
• Timothy O’Donnell 4% (27-1)
• Ben Hoffmann 3% (31-3)

(Photo: Sebi and Frodo after the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See, Credit: Joern Pollex/Getty Images for Ironman)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Here is my quick calculation of the KPR at the end of August, deciding 10 slots for the male and 7 slots for the female. These slots are in addition to the July slots (for those, please check my post on the July ranking) and before any rolldowns.

My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx. I do not count the July slots in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the August Top 10 male and Top 7 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(11)”) are outside of the August slots.

Male KPR Ranking

Other than changes in the order of slots, the last weekend has not seen any changes in the Top 10 rankings for August slots.

Rank	Name	Points	Races
1	Manocchio, Guilherme	5540	3+2 (855/145)
2	Raelert, Andreas	4505	2+3 (235/240)
3	Stein, Boris	4465	2+3 (450/115)
4	Chevrot, Denis	4290	2+3 (720/320)
5	Rapp, Jordan	4180	2+3 (1280/180)
6	Ambrose, Paul	4155	3+2 (340/255)
7	Cartmell, Fraser	3785	2+3 (1600/85)
8	Chrabot, Matt	3630	1+3 (1600/640)
9	Jurkiewicz, Jeremy	3475	3+2 (705/125)
10	Daerr, Justin	3440	3+2 (340/85)
(11*)	Casadei, Alberto	3440	2+3 (960/400)
(12)	Wurtele, Trevor	3395	2+3 (960/320)
(13)	Aigroz, Mike	3350	3+2 (540/180)

*) Alberto has the same points as Justin, but Justin has the better tie-breaker (his best score is a win in Mont Tremblant, Alberto’s best is a third in IM Maastricht).

Female KPR Ranking

A slot rolled down to Laurel Wassner, Sonja Tajsich was forced to decline.

Rank	Name	Points	Races
1	Vesterby, Michelle	6350	3+2 (1600/345)
DECL	Tajsich, Sonja	5360	3+2 (685/345)
2	Stienen, Astrid	4840	3+2 (1070/170)
3	Li, Shiao-Yu	4600	3+2 (960/180)
4	Piampiano, Sarah	4410	2+3 (1280/320)
5	Snow, Cait	4375	3+2 (340/540)
6	Goos, Sofie	4220	3+2 (340/320)
DECL	Clifford, Ashley	4130	3+1 (1070/500)
7	Wassner, Laurel	4060	2+3 (230/345)
(8)	Wee, Bree	3790	3+2 (685/85)

 

I’ve updated my page on the Top 10 Ratings in long distance triathlon.

TOP Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

After his stellar are at IM Germany, Jan Frodeno has taken over the top spot in front of Sebastian Kienle. With Nils Frommhold there are now three Germans at the front of my ratings:

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	08:08:18	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:08:50	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	10
3	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:15:11	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	6
4	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:15:48	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	16
5	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:19:10	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	19
6	Andreas Raelert	GER	08:20:03	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	14
7	Timo Bracht	GER	08:22:35	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	24
8	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:23:13	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	12
9	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:23:47	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	22
10	Bas Diederen	NED	08:24:09	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	8

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Mirinda Carfrae continues to lead the female ratings, but Daniela Ryf is slowly getting closer.

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	08:57:08	IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22	12
2	Daniela Ryf	SUI	09:03:14	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	4
3	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:07:58	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	16
4	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:11:03	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	20
5	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:13:06	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	17
6	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:14:13	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7
7	Julia Gajer	GER	09:15:15	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	9
8	Eva Wutti	AUT	09:16:23	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	5
9	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:17:15	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	14
10	Liz Blatchford	AUS	09:17:16	IM Cairns on 2015-06-14	7

TOP Swim-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Dylan McNeice	NZL	00:45:11	IM Cairns on 2015-06-14	11
2	Andy Potts	USA	00:46:00	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	12
3	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:46:22	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
4	Manuel Kueng	SUI	00:46:36	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	3
5	Marko Albert	EST	00:46:49	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	12
6	Filip Ospaly	CZE	00:47:02	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	3
7	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:47:04	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	6
8	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:47:10	IM Brasil on 2015-05-31	10
9	Denis Chevrot	FRA	00:47:13	IM UK on 2015-07-19	5
10	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	00:47:18	IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30	11

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Celine Schaerer	SUI	00:48:23	IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30	3
2	Jodie Swallow	GBR	00:48:35	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7
3	Haley Chura	USA	00:49:03	IM Brasil on 2015-05-31	8
4	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:49:49	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	13
5	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:50:07	IM New Zealand on 2015-03-07	19
6	Leanda Cave	GBR	00:50:40	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	16
7	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:50:45	IM Brasil on 2015-05-31	18
8	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:50:54	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	14
9	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:50:55	IM Cairns on 2015-06-14	7
10	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	00:51:00	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	4

TOP Bike-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

With his fast bike ride at Challenge Roth, Andrew Starykowicz has reclaimed his top spot in the bike ratings:

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	04:23:43	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	5
2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	04:26:08	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	10
3	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	04:28:16	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	19
4	Nils Frommhold	GER	04:28:39	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	6
5	Michael Weiss	AUT	04:29:29	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	11
6	Jan Frodeno	GER	04:31:34	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
7	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	04:31:54	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	16
8	Maik Twelsiek	GER	04:32:39	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	26
9	Andi Boecherer	GER	04:33:13	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	11
10	Eneko Llanos	ESP	04:34:34	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	22

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

Angela Naeth is slowly inching towards a 5 hour rating, but she is clearly second after Daniela Ryf continues to improve her bike rating:

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	04:56:48	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	4
2	Angela Naeth	CAN	05:00:30	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	4
3	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	05:01:06	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	17
4	Lisa Huetthaler	AUT	05:01:20	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	4
5	Caroline Steffen	SUI	05:01:23	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	20
6	Eva Wutti	AUT	05:01:30	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	5
7	Anja Beranek	GER	05:03:05	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	5
8	Natascha Badmann	SUI	05:03:42	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	12
9	Diana Riesler	GER	05:03:52	IM Lanzarote on 2015-05-23	14
10	Jodie Swallow	GBR	05:04:21	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7

TOP Run-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	02:47:19	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
2	Mads Vittrup	DEN	02:47:55	IM Copenhagen on 2014-08-24	5
3	Matt Hanson	USA	02:48:45	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	6
4	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	02:49:30	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	3
5	Bart Aernouts	BEL	02:49:59	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7
6	Ivan Rana	ESP	02:50:30	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	8
7	Jeff Symonds	CAN	02:51:06	IM Canada on 2015-07-26	5
8	Gerrit Schellens	BEL	02:51:24	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	10
9	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	02:52:08	IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30	11
10	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	02:52:25	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	10

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	02:58:47	IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22	12
2	Kelly Williamson	USA	03:04:20	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	11
3	Kristin Moeller	GER	03:04:42	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	15
4	Caitlin Snow	USA	03:06:06	IM Canada on 2015-07-26	20
5	Julia Gajer	GER	03:07:05	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	9
6	Beth Gerdes	USA	03:07:16	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	10
7	Linsey Corbin	USA	03:07:40	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	18
8	Eva Wutti	AUT	03:08:17	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	5
9	Lucy Gossage	GBR	03:08:17	IM UK on 2015-07-19	9
10	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	03:08:39	IM Canada on 2015-07-26	9

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results have been posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell show the same data). I do not count AQs in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females.
I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(42)”) are outside of the July slots.

Update July 28th: Yvonne Van Vlerken declines (with a post on her German language Facebook page), Dimity-Lee Duke is now in. Here’s a quick translation of Yvonne’s statement:

The race in Hawaii deserves 100% focus and absolute priority if you want to finish at the front. .. I only want to start when I have a chance for a Top 5. That I belong there I have shown with my 2nd place  at IM Melbourne in a world class field and confirmed that with my win at Challenge Roth. If I can add a win at Ironman Maastricht next weekend, I’ll be very happy and have fulfilled my main goals for this year.
Things are going to be different for 2016: For the first time I will completely focus on Kona.

Update 2 July 28th: Patrik Nilsson also declines to focus on racing well at IM Sweden, his slot rolls down to Luke Bell.

Update 3 August 15th: Lisa Hütthaler announced on her blog that she is injured and won’t be able to start 70.3 World Champs or in Kona. Her slot has rolled down to Dede Griesbauer.

Male KPR Ranking

All July slots have been accepted, the only exception is Patrik Nilsson who declined for Luke Bell.

Rank	Name	Validated	Points	Races
AQ	Frodeno, Jan	V	14680	2+3 (4000/750)
AQ	Kienle, Sebastian	V	12415	2+2
AQ	Van Lierde, Frederik	V	10455	3+1 (2090/0)
1	Hoffman, Ben	V	9970	2+3 (1070/415)
2	Potts, Andy	V	9475	2+3 (2000/500)
3	Frommhold, Nils	V	9185	2+2
4	Aernouts, Bart	V	8310	2+2
5	Sanders, Lionel	V	8140	2+3 (2000/750)
6	Van Berkel, Tim	V	8060	2+3 (3400/45)
7	Schildknecht, Ronnie	V	7550	3+2 (2000/180)
8	Don, Tim	V	7430	1+3 (2000/1500)
9	McMahon, Brent	V	7270	2+3 (2000/500)
10	Trautman, Matt	V	7195	3+2 (1670/320)
11	Viennot, Cyril	V	6995	2+2
AQ	Hanson, Matt	V	6990	3+2 (720/50)
AQ	Vanhoenacker, Marino	V	6735	3+1 (235/0)
12	Guillaume, Romain	V	6200	3+2 (960/320)
13	Brown, Cameron	V	6145	3+2 (960/500)
14	O’Donnell, Timothy	V	6065	3+2 (235/435)
15	Rana, Ivan	V	5840	3+1 (880/0)
16	Skipper, Joe	V	5295	3+1 (540/0)
17	Diederen, Bas	V	5245	3+1 (720/0)
18	Weiss, Michael	V	5025	3+2 (1100/85)
19	Llanos, Eneko	V	4980	3+1 (1070/0)
20	Butterfield, Tyler	V	4965	2+3 (1335/110)
21	Alonso McKernan, Clemente	V	4880	3+0 (1280/0)
22	Millward, Callum	V	4825	2+3 (1600/180)
—	Reed, Tim	NV	4710	1+3 (340/1275)
23	Mcnamee, David	V	4695	2+3 (1335/280)
AQ	Symonds, Jeff	V	4675	1+2
24	Boecherer, Andi	V	4530	1+3 (2890/500)
25	McKenzie, Luke	V	4450	2+3 (1375/240)
26	Kahlefeldt, Brad	V	4400	1+3 (2890/435)
27	Amorelli, Igor	V	4340	2+3 (340/125)
28	McNeice, Dylan	V	4305	3+1 (960/0)
DECL	Nilsson, Patrik	V	4240	2+1
—	Alexander, Craig	NV	4210	1+3 (1900/640)
29	Gomes, Pedro	V	4090	3+0 (720/0)
30	Kramer, Christian	V	4055	2+0
31	Zyemtsev, Viktor	V	3980	2+3 (540/400)
32	Croneborg, Fredrik	V	3975	2+3 (1600/135)
33	Buckingham, Kyle	V	3925	3+2 (515/195)
34	Van Berkel, Jan	V	3895	2+3 (1335/320)
35	Twelsiek, Maik	V	3875	3+2 (85/80)
36	Del Corral, Victor	V	3860	3+2 (855/45)
37	Bozzone, Terenzo	V	3850	1+3 (1600/320)
—	Gomez, Javier	NV	3750	0+2
38	Bretscher, Daniel	V	3745	2+3 (1600/20)
39	Blanchart Tinto, Miquel	V	3700	3+1 (960/0)
40	Bell, Luke	V	3665	2+3 (160/345)
(41)	Chrabot, Matt	V	3630	1+3 (1600/640)
(42)	Cartmell, Fraser	V	3545	3+2 (50/15)
(43)	Manocchio, Guilherme	V	3540	2+2
(44)	Chevrot, Denis	V	3540	2+2

As a previous champion and with his validation race at IM Australia, Pete Jacobs is another Automatic Qualifier (even if he is well outside the Top40).

Female KPR Ranking

As for the male side, there was only one slot rolling down: Yvonne Van Vlerken declined, and Dimity-Lee Duke now received a July slot.

Rank	Name	Validated	Points	Races
AQ	Ryf, Daniela	V	15450	2+3 (4000/500)
AQ	Swallow, Jodie	V	14370	2+3 (4000/750)
1	Steffen, Caroline	V	13055	3+2 (2890/750)
2	Joyce, Rachel	V	11100	2+3 (2890/320)
AQ	Carfrae, Mirinda	V	10275	2+2
3	Gajer, Julia	V	9905	2+3 (3400/500)
4	Kessler, Meredith	V	8960	2+3 (2000/1275)
5	Crawford, Gina	V	8940	3+2 (1600/640)
AQ	Monticeli, Ariane	V	7810	3+2 (960/500)
6	Lyles, Elizabeth	V	7790	2+1
7	Blatchford, Liz	V	7770	3+2 (1280/640)
AQ	Naeth, Angela	V	7580	2+3 (2000/400)
8	Ellis, Mary Beth	V	7515	2+2
9	Wurtele, Heather	V	7390	2+3 (1335/750)
10	Gossage, Lucy	V	7190	2+3 (2000/400)
DECL	Van Vlerken, Yvonne	V	7160	3+2 (720/500)
11	Wutti, Eva	V	6920	3+2 (1670/500)
12	Stevens, Amanda	V	6290	3+2 (720/540)
13	Cheetham, Susie	V	6290	2+3 (1280/640)
14	Riesler, Diana	V	6270	3+1 (2000/0)
15	Pedersen, Camilla	V	5875	2+3 (1600/320)
16	Gerdes, Beth	V	5795	3+2 (960/345)
17	Martin, Britta	V	5340	3+1 (1335/0)
18	Brennan-Morrey, Ruth	V	5325	2+3 (1600/35)
AQ	Cave, Leanda	V	5290	2+2
19	Jackson, Heather	V	5285	2+3 (1280/540)
20	Hufe, Mareen	V	5255	3+2 (1280/500)
DECL	Huetthaler, Lisa	V	5195	2+2
21	Chura, Haley	V	5150	2+3 (1670/240)
22	Luxford, Annabel	V	5080	1+3 (1670/920)
23	Williamson, Kelly	V	5055	3+2 (565/320)
24	Abraham, Corinne	V	4725	2+0
25	Deckers, Tine	V	4660	2+2
26	Lundstroem, Asa	V	4625	3+1 (855/0)
27	Duke, Dimity-Lee	V	4585	3+2 (960/345)
28	Griesbauer, Dede	V	4500	2+2
(29)	Piampiano, Sarah	V	4410	2+3 (1280/320)
(30)	Clifford, Ashley	V	4130	3+1 (1070/0)
AQ	Hauschildt, Melissa	V	4000	1+0
(31)	Wassner, Laurel	V	3760	3+2 (230/135)
(32)	Snow, Caitlin	V	3735	3+1 (340/0)