Analysis

After the first men are in, here are some observations:

• Similar to the swim, conditions were pretty typical for Kona – meaning that a course record is probably not in the cards.
• So far Maik Twelsiek posted the fastest bike split in 4:25:10, nearly 6 minutes than expected
• Sebastian Kienle rode a bit quicker than Jan Frodeno, but was still 1:30 slower than expected.
• Jan Frodeno was more than two minutes quicker than expected, he is projected to be the winner this year. But of course the marathon still has to be run!
• Tim O’Donnell and Joe Skipper were 13:42 and 10:36 quicker than expected – hopefully they can still have a good run!

Projected Top 10

1. Jan Frodeno GER 08:12:50
2. Brent McMahon CAN 08:15:42
3. Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:18:44
4. Sebastian Kienle GER 08:19:12
5. Andreas Raelert GER 08:19:39
6. Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:21:14
7. Andy Potts USA 08:21:35
8. Eneko Llanos ESP 08:24:02
9. Ben Hoffman USA 08:24:09
10. Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:25:27

Bike Analysis

After the swim I did a quick analysis of the data. Here are a few quick points:

• The swim in Kona is always slow, this year it was maybe just a little bit slower than in the last years. The 2014 adjustment was -4:46, this year’s preliminary adjustment -4:58, 12 seconds slower.
• In the mens’s race we saw fast swims by Romain Guillaume (58 seconds faster than expected), Ben Hoffman (1:21), Paul Ambrose (1:20), Tim Berkel (1:47).
  But Sebastian Kienle had the best swim relative to expectations, 3 minutes quicker than expected!
• Slow men’s swims were by Dylan McNeice (even though he won the swim, he was 1:02 slower than expected), Brad Kahlefeldt (1:39), Brent McMahon (1:03),
  Two strong bikers also didn’t really have a good swim: Marino Vanhoenacker (2:37) and Maik Twelsiek (2:09)
• In the female race there were fast swims by Annabel Luxford (53 seconds faster than expected), Caroline Steffen (47 sec), Dede Griesbauer (46 sec) , Susie Cheetham (3:50) and Liz Lyles (2:25).
• Similar to Dylan on the men’s side, Jodie Swallow won the swim but was slower than expected (by 1:31). Meredith Kessler (1:05), Haley Chura (2:17) and Amanda Stevens (2:43) also don’t have the swims they were probably looking for.

Preliminary Swim Analysis Men

Swim Analysis

In my Kona Rating Report I’m using a “star system” to show athletes chances to place well overall and how strong they are in each of the disciplines on a scale of zero to five symbols. The number of symbols is based on the ratings, the more symbols the better.

Here is compact way to look at the data, giving you a chance to view the whole field in one “heatmap”. In these graphs, a darker red corresponds to more stars, white is equal to no stars.

Female Pros

(Click on the image for full-resolution.)

The best athletes in each leg and overall are:

• Swim: Jodie Swallow, Meredith Kessler, Amanda Stevens, Haley Chura
• Bike: Caroline Steffen, Rachel Joyce, Daniela Ryf, Angela Naeth
• Run: Mirinda Carfrae
• Overall: Mirinda Carfrae, Rachel Joyce, Daniela Ryf

Male Pros

(Click on the image for full-resolution.)

The best athletes in each leg and overall are:

• Swim: Jan Frodeno, Andy Potts, Timothy O’Donnell, Andi Boecherer, Dylan McNeice, Matt Chrabot
• Bike: Andi Boecherer, Marino Vanhoenacker, Sebastian Kienle, Maik Twelsiek
• Run: Jan Frodeno, Brent McMahon, Jeff Symonds, Bart Aernouts, Ivan Rana, Matt Hanson
• Overall: Jan Frodeno, Frederik Van Lierde, Sebastian Kienle

Female Winners

There is a similar story to men’s battle between Sebi and Frodo on the women’s side: Last year’s champion Mirinda Carfrae had her typical quiet year, but she is always ready to race in October. Based on her previous Kona races, she is still the statistical favorite. But Rinny will be challenged by Frankfurt winner and 70.3 Champion Daniela Ryf who has continued her amazing development from last year. Rachel Joyce is relatively close to these two but hasn’t had a great season so far. The low numbers of the Long Shots show how dominant the chances of the main contenders are.

Favorites

• Mirinda Carfrae 38% (2-1)
• Daniela Ryf 22% (3-1)

In the Mix

• Rachel Joyce 17% (5-1)

Long Shots

• Caroline Steffen 4% (27-1)
• Eva Wutti 3% (29-1)
• Leanda Cave 2% (52-1)

Female TOP 3

For the women, there are good chances for the same podium as last year: Rinny, Rachel and Daniela are safe podium bets. But repeat podiums in Kona are very race – there have only been two ever: 2002 to 2004 saw Natascha, Lori Bowden and Nina Kraft in different order on the podium. Therefore we can expect at least one other athlete on this year’s podium. The likeliest candidates are Kona rookies Eva Wutti and Angela Naeth, and the more experienced Meredith Kessler, Leanda Cave, Caroline Steffen or Jodie Swallow.

Safe Bets

• Mirinda Carfrae 46% (1-1)
• Rachel Joyce 46% (1-1)
• Daniela Ryf 44% (1-1)

Knocking on the Door

• Eva Wutti 25% (3-1)
• Meredith Kessler 18% (4-1)
• Leanda Cave 17% (5-1)
• Caroline Steffen 16% (5-1)
• Jodie Swallow 15% (6-1)
• Angela Naeth 14% (6-1)

Outside Chances

• Julia Gajer 11% (8-1)
• Haley Chura 9% (10-1)
• Liz Blatchford 3% (29-1)
• Mary Beth Ellis 2% (39-1)

(Photo: Rinny close the finish line in 2014. Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Male Winners

This year will be quite interesting as it is very hard to pick a clear favorite based purely on numbers. For Kona the previous year’s winner will always be in the mix. Defending champion Sebastian Kienle has shown some good races this year, so there is every reason to expect him close to the front again. But he is overshadowed by last year’s third, Jan Frodeno. Jan had a dominant race in Frankfurt, improving Sebi’s course record from last year and also winning the 70.3 Champs.

Based on the data the next athlete to consider is Marino Vanhoenacker. He still has to show that he can have one more great race in Kona. Frederik Van Lierde, the 2013 Champion, will be in the mix as well. Nils Frommhold seems to be ready to take another step forward after his 6th place last year and winning Challenge Roth in the summer.

Favorites

• Jan Frodeno 22% (3-1)
• Sebastian Kienle 19% (4-1)

In the Mix

• Marino Vanhoenacker 16% (5-1)
• Frederik Van Lierde 12% (7-1)
• Nils Frommhold 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

• Brent McMahon 4% (26-1)
• Ivan Rana 3% (28-1)
• Andi Boecherer 3% (36-1)
• Andy Potts 2% (50-1)

Male TOP 3

Sebi and Frodo are also my safe bets for a podium, but the third spot is pretty open. If Marino has a good race he has a good shot at the podium, but Frederik will make it hard. With Nils Frommhold and Andi Böcherer there are two more German podium contenders – we may easily end up with a German podium! Andy Potts is the big American hope for a podium spot.

Safe Bets

• Sebastian Kienle 51% (1-1)
• Jan Frodeno 44% (2-1)

Knocking on the Door

• Marino Vanhoenacker 34% (2-1)
• Nils Frommhold 29% (3-1)
• Frederik Van Lierde 28% (3-1)
• Andi Böcherer 27% (3-1)
• Andy Potts 17% (5-1)

Outside Chances

• Clemente Alonso 13% (7-1)
• Brent MacMahon 13% (7-1)
• Ivan Rana 8% (12-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht 8% (12-1)
• Bas Diederen 6% (17-1)
• Andreas Raelert 6% (17-1)
• Jordan Rapp 4% (24-1)
• Timothy O’Donnell 4% (27-1)
• Ben Hoffmann 3% (31-3)

(Photo: Sebi and Frodo after the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See, Credit: Joern Pollex/Getty Images for Ironman)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!