IM Hawaii

Here are the results of the top finishers of the female Pro race in Kona 2018 (full results can be found here, a detailed look at the men’s Pro race here):

Here’s the Race Development Graph for these athletes:

Kona Champion: Daniela Ryf

Even jelly fish stings shortly before the race couldn’t stop Daniela from defending her title and also setting new records:

Before the race there was pretty much agreement that Dani would be able to defend her title unless something serious happened to her. This year, something serious did happened to her – she was stung by jellyfish under both armpits and was seriously thinking about not even starting the race. She decided to give it a try and said she felt so slow that she was sure she was in last place. It wasn’t quite that slow (she still swam under an hour and faster than Mirinda Carfrae or Kaisa Sali), but she lost nine minutes to Lucy Charles (twice as much time as last year) and when she took some extra time in T1 she was even further behind, starting the bike in 22nd place in a group with a few other contenders who were probably very surprised to ride with Dani. She gained a few spots in the first hour of the bike, but didn’t make up any ground to Lucy. But once she passed the Airport, she was able to put the pain from the stings aside and slowly started to move ahead and close the gap. By the turn in Hawi, she had moved into second place and was also riding too fast for Sarah Crowley who had been riding with her for a few miles – but she was still seven minutes behind Lucy.

What followed was a demonstration of her domination on the Ironman distance: She closed the gap to Lucy in the next 40 miles and posted one of the fastest second half bike splits overall. (One of the stats making the round after the race was that she rode the last 70k of the bike quicker than male winner Patrick Lange, and there were only seven Pro men riding that section faster than her.) She took the lead from Lucy at about mile 102 (even a bit earlier than last year) and with a bike split of 4:26:07 annihilated the long-standing bike record (4:44:19 by Karin Thürig from 2011). Even though the conditions were fast this year and there were five more athletes breaking the old record, she still posted the fastest bike split by more than twelve minutes!

Still, Dani started the run only 90 seconds ahead of Lucy, so she still needed a solid run after that very hard bike leg to secure her fourth Kona title in a row. She never allowed any doubt about her marathon (or any hope for Lucy): In fact she almost posted a new marathon PR, her 2:57 missed her best run from 2016 by just 14 seconds. In the end, an ecstatic Dani crossed the line with a ten-minute margin to second place, of course with a new course record of 8:26:07 – an improvement on her 2016 time by more than 20 minutes. In all the excitement on race day it went pretty much unnoticed that this is also the fastest time ever in an Ironman-branded race, there are only three quicker finishes in Roth (8:22 by Dani in 2016 and Chrissie Wellington’s 8:18 and 8:19 in 2010 and 2011).

Second: Lucy Charles

With another great performance, Lucy again claimed second place for the second year in a row:

Once again Lucy had a great start of the race and was leading the race into T1. She had said before the race that she wanted to go for the swim course record, and from the gun she was swimming at a hard pace, quickly leaving the rest of the field behind. Her pace was spot on: Her 48:14 broke Jodi Jackson’s 1999 swim course record by 29 seconds. She didn’t know anything of Daniela’s problems during the swim and started to also set a fast pace on the bike. She delivered another great performance in Kona: In addition to breaking the swim course record, she was six minutes faster than the old bike course record, and almost posted a new run PR (she missed her run time from South Africa by five seconds). When she crossed the finish line in 8:36:14, she was ten minutes quicker than the old course record. Nonetheless, Lucy’s 2018 race was pretty much a copy of last year: Leading after the swim and for most of the bike, she was overtaken by Dani shortly before T2, and a good run allowed her to finish second by a good margin to third place: two minutes in 2017, five minutes this year.

Third and Fourth: Anne Haug & Sarah True

While the first two places were pretty much decided in T2, the race for third was close until just before the finish line when Anne Haug was able to overtake Sarah True:

Both didn’t lose too much time in the swim (four minutes for Sarah, six minutes for Anne), and both were happy to settle into a bigger big group that formed behind the leading athletes. The positions shown in the graph above are a bit misleading – the group was close to 15 athletes riding between fifth and 20th place. For most of the bike ride, the two rookies were happy to follow the pace set by more experienced athletes, eventually riding 15 minutes behind the leaders. Around 90 miles into the bike, Sarah was still feeling good and started to ride a strong, focused pace and the group started to fall apart. Anne was able to match her pace and they started the run in fifth and sixth place within 30 seconds of each other. Sarah and Anne were running the fastest pace in the female field and by the time they left the Energy Lab, they had moved into third and fourth place, still less than a minute apart. Anne was especially strong towards the end, moved into third place less than five miles from the finish and ran the best female marathon of the day with a 2:55 – the fastest Kona run since Rinny’s course run record in 2014.

Sarah admits that she ran the first part of the run with too much excitement: “I paid for my early pace after the halfway point and started to have GI distress and problems with nutrition. Before Anne passed me, I was aware that I might have difficulty finishing if I didn’t slow down through aid stations and start to take in more nutrition. While this approach helped me salvage my race, I definitely suffered quite a bit. I don’t remember the last bit of the race which is a shame. I wanted to experience all of Kona, but being in survival mode meant that I don’t remember crossing the finish line very well. I guess I’ll have to go back to experience it fully!”

Fifth to Ninth: Mirinda Carfrae, Sarah Crowley, Kaisa Sali, Angela Naeth, and Corinne Abraham

There were two athletes that were able to ride between Lucy and Dani in front and the large bike group about ten to 15 minutes behind the lead. As last year, Sarah Crowley (orange line) was sticking to Daniela, but had to let her go shortly after the turnaround. By T2 she was over twelve minutes back, and she was overtaken by Corinne Abraham (green line) who was able to ride five minutes into the big bike group by posting the third-best bike split (just 6 seconds slower than Lucy Charles). Corinne wasn’t able to do much run training and after the race was happy to finish in ninth place when she rallied to run with Angela Naeth after the Energy Lab. Sarah ran in third place on Ali’i, but then she was overtaken, first by Anne and Sarah and then – shortly after exiting the Energy Lab – by Mirinda Carfrae. Sarah ended up finishing sixth but she was clearly racing for more.

In her comeback season, Mirinda Carfrae (aqua line) had a solid Kona race. She was part of the big bike group that formed after the swim and while she lost almost twenty minutes to Daniela Ryf and started the run in 14th pace, she was just over five minutes behind the podium ranks in T2. Rinny quickly moved into the Top 10, but others from the bike group (Anne Haug, Sarah True) were running a bit quicker than her so this year her run through the field ended in fifth place.

The other proven strong runner in the big bike group was Kaisa Sali (blue line). A 3:06 marathon was good enough for a seventh-place finish but not enough to make up ground to the athletes in front of her. Even though Angela Naeth (red line) was five minutes slower than Kaisa on the run, she is probably quite happy with her Kona marathon – the only time she ever ran a better time was in her win at IM Texas in 2015. Angela has been getting faster in each IM marathon she completed in her 2018 season.

Falling Back and Coming From Behind: Linsey Corbin, Sarah Piampiano, Liz Blatchford, Mareen Hufe and Heather Jackson

There are two different story types for the athletes finishing between ninth and 14th place:

Linsey Corbin (violet line) quickly lost touch with the big bike group, but riding her own pace she didn’t lose too much time: In T2 she was 18th, but only three to five minutes behind a lot of athletes. A steady 3:07 marathon saw her slowly climb the ranks and finish in tenth place, the last Pro to earn prize money.

The fourth sub-3 Kona 2018 marathon was run by Sarah Piampiano (turquoise line) who ended the race in eleventh place. As is typical for her, she lost a lot of time in the swim and started the bike in 36th place (fourth-to-last). By T2 she was able to gain a few spots, but she was still 15 minutes behind tenth place. But she had an almost evenly paced marathon, ending up in eleventh place just three minutes short of the Top 10.

The next three spots were taken by athletes that worked hard on the bike to put themselves in good positions but then didn’t quite have the runs that would have been needed for a Top 10 finish. Liz Blatchford (orange line) lost contact with the bike group in the final miles of the bike but then had a solid 3:15 run to finish twelfth. Mareen Hufe (light blue) was once again one of the strongest athletes on the bike and started the run in the Top 10 but with a lot of strong runners around her. She didn’t concede too many spots, but a 3:18 marathon saw her drop back into 13th place.

Heather Jackson (pink line) started the run in eighth place and a lot of her fans thought that with her typical fast run she’d be a strong podium contender. But to her own disappointment, she never found a good rhythm and even struggled in the last ten k, dropping back to 14th place.

Credit: All photos by Ingo Kutsche

Observations about the 2018 Female Race

There are a couple of things that have been unusual about the 2018 race:

• Fast Times
  Even more than on the men’s side, this year’s Kona was extremely fast. Daniela Ryf set a new course record and also the fastest IM-distance time outside of Roth. There are now 22 sub-9 finishes in Kona – ten of them from this year. Until now, there has never been a year with more than two sub-9 finishes!
• Dominance of Daniela
  Daniela has now won the last four races in Kona, and all of her wins weren’t even close – the smallest gap was in 2017 when Lucy was nine minutes behind. Even this year’s troubles before the swim didn’t stop Dani. If she continues to stay motivated and (mostly) healthy, there isn’t a real challenger for her in sight.
• Big Bike Group
  With a big bike group forming after the swim that then gets progressively smaller, the female race is becoming more and more similar to the men’s race. Other than Daniela and Lucy (who were in a separate race for most of the day), no one was rewarded for trying to ride their own pace: Both Sarah Crowley and Corinne Abraham who rode in front of the group fell back on the run, and the best-placed athlete behind the group was Linsey Corbin who finished tenth.
  At the same time, the strong bike riders will probably have to think about how they can build a gap in T2 to put some extra pressure on the runners. “Riding steady” as they seemed to do this year is no longer enough to shake off the athletes not quite as strong on the bike, but a gap will be needed if they want to place well in the deep Kona field.
• Strong Running required
  The marathon in Kona is getting quicker from year to year, and a sub-3:10 run is now almost required for a Top 10 finish. (In 2018 there was only Corinne who was more than a few seconds above 3:10, while there were four each in 2016 and 2017.) While this is also a consequence of the big bike group, this is unlikely to change in the next years – if anything run times will stay at the same level while the bike times are also getting faster. Quite a challenge for the athletes that want to step up to a Top 10 finish!

Here are the results of the top finishers and the athletes that had an influence on the outcome of the MPRO race (full results can be found here, a detailed look at the women’s Pro race here):

Here’s the Race Development Graph for these athletes (click for a hi-res version):

Many thanks to Xavier Marjou for extracting the detailed splits for the Kona race.

Kona Champion: Patrick Lange

On a fast day, Patrick was the fastest athlete and won in convincing fashion:

Patrick’s day didn’t start well: Usually he is a front-pack swimmer, but this year he lost contact with the lead group and was more than three minutes behind the lead in T1. Aside from Sebastian Kienle’s win in 2014, the winners have always started the bike in the Top 10 group – this year Patrick started the bike in 19th place and well back from the Top 10. But when his team-mate Andi Dreitz was able to ride up to the front of his bike group, Patrick had a strong ally who was keeping the pace high but even. This worked extremely well for Patrick: They quickly rode up to athletes such as Tim O’Donnell, Braden Currie or Javier Gomez,  faster swimmers that weren’t keeping up with the fast pace at the front. As the race progressed they weren’t losing much time to the leaders, and more and more athletes were not able to follow Andi’s pace. Both Patrick and Andi said after the race that this wasn’t pre-planned, but comments by Braden Currie indicate that Andi was setting exactly the right pace for Patrick and that they were working extremely well together. Patrick’s improved Kona bike times show his progress on the bike: He rode 4:37 in 2016 (when he was third), then 4:29 last year and 4:16 this year. The fast conditions certainly played a role as well, but even his normalized bike times improved from 4:38 via 4:33 to 4:29 this year.

By the time the group reached T2, Patrick was in a great position: Last year he was more than ten minutes back from the leader, this year less than seven, and – probably even more important – he had no one in front of him that could be expected to run well. After T2, he was running his own pace even when Tim O’Donnell or Braden Currie were a few seconds in front of him. After climbing Palani he was slowly but steadily running away from them, taking the lead at about ten miles from Cam Wurf. He continued to extend his gap over the other runners and ended up posting the fastest marathon of the day. A 2:41 was slower than his 2:39s in the last two years, but after a fast bike his final time was 7:52, the first sub-8 time in Kona and a clear win by four minutes.

Second Place: Bart Aernouts

Bart raced his best Kona race so far, running his way into second place with a strong marathon:

Bart had finished in the Top 10 a few times before (last year he was 12th), usually he loses some time in the swim and on the bike, but then a good marathon allows him to move up into the money slots. In the last two years he has stepped up his game, allowing him to win Lanzarote, Roth and Hamburg – still aided by a fast run, but he was starting the run in a better position than before after he was able to step it up on the bike, and this year’s Kona race is another indication of his faster bike. Together with a couple of other strong bike riders, he was able to do something very unusual in Kona: Usually if you’re behind the group in Hawi, you’re only losing more time on the way back to Kona, but Bart made up time to the main bike group after the turn. At 60 miles he was still three minutes behind the Dreitz/Lange group and riding in 34th place, but then together with Michael Weiss, Matt Russell and Joe Skipper he was able to ride up and reach the main group about ten miles from T2.

Bart started the run in sixth place but was running a similar pace to Patrick Lange. When Patrick stepped up the pace, he wasn’t quite able to stay with Patrick, but he moved into second place not too far behind. When Patrick continued to run well, Bart lost a total of four minutes but he was able to distance all the other athletes that started the run with him and to hold on to his second-place finish. He also finished under eight hours.

Third Place: David McNamee

David was quite a surprise to finish third in 2017, after a disappointing 2018 season it was maybe an even bigger surprise to see him run his way into third again:

At a cursory glance, David’s 2018 race was pretty similar to last year: After a good swim he lost just over ten minutes to the leaders on the bike, but then a good marathon (last year a second-best 2:45 marathon, this year a third-best 2:46) allowed him to pass most of the athletes that were in front of him in T2.

Looking closer, for most of the race another podium result was even more unlikely this year. As usual David was just two minutes behind after the swim, but then the pace at the front (mainly set by Andrew Starykowicz and Cam Wurf) quickly saw him drop back further. And while last year he was able to ride with Patrick Lange into T2, this year Patrick and his group quickly passed him after less than 20 miles on the bike. After the turn in Hawi, David was riding for a while with the strong bike riders such as Bart or Matt Russell, but then lost contact to them when they increased their effort in order to close the gap to Patrick. David rode the last part of the bike with Sebi Kienle and Lionel Sanders who didn’t have a good day, losing three more minutes to the front in the last 20 miles of the bike. All this meant that David started the run in 19th place (compared to tenth last year), five minutes behind Patrick Lange and many other good runners that had been able to ride up to Patrick.

At the start of the run the focus of the coverage was on the group around Patrick, but David matched their pace on Ali’i Drive and quickly started his climb in the ranks far away from any cameras. By Palani (about 8 miles into the run), he had overtaken Joe Skipper and Matt Russel (see photo below), and he was already in the Top 10. He passed the duo of Tim O’Donnell and Braden Currie in the Energy Lab and had moved up into third place. Patrick and Bart were too far ahead of him and running too well for any further improvements, but he could enjoy the last section before crossing the line, claiming the third podium spot for the second year in a row.

Fourth and Fifth Place: Tim O’Donnell and Braden Currie

Tim and Braden were racing together for most of the day, in the final miles of the run TO had a bit more left in the tank to claim fourth place in front of Braden:

Both Time (who was in the lead group) and Braden swam faster than Patrick, but when the Dreitz/Lange train got rolling, they were swallowed up after 20 miles (Braden) and 40 miles (TO). Apparently they were content to stay in that group – Andi Dreitz reported after the race that no one was willing to take the lead in the group from him even when he was sitting up. Consequently, both Braden and Tim reached T2 with Patrick.

Tim had the quickest transition and started the run a few seconds in front of Braden and Patrick, but the three of them were quickly running together, closely followed by Bart Aernouts. When Patrick slowly ran away after the climb on Palani, Tim struggled a bit, but Braden never managed to build a lead of more than 15 seconds to Tim and by mile 15 they were back running shoulder to shoulder. It wasn’t until the final hill before town that Tim was able to build a gap to Braden, and he turned himself inside out to claim fourth place. Braden was totally spent as well and crossed the line just a few seconds in front of sixth place Matt Russell.

Both Tim and Braden are probably satisfied with this year’s results, but I’m sure that they will be looking to step it up next year. This year showed that Patrick continues to be the strongest runner in Kona, so they will have to build a gap on the bike. This year they might have been able to capitalize on their lead after the swim, but usually Patrick is a better swimmer and it’s unlikely that such a situation will happen again next year. This leaves the second half of the bike. With the good conditions and the speed of the bike leg this year, maybe they thought that Patrick was biking too hard and wouldn’t be able to run well. Who will be able to put time into Patrick on the bike next year?

Sixth and Seventh: Matt Russell and Joe Skipper

Matt and Joe are another pair that had a close fight for most of the day, ending up in sixth and seventh place:

Both lost some time in the swim, but as they are typically slower swimmers they can be quite happy with staying with the main group (Joe) or losing just three minutes to them (Matt). They were part of a strong bike group that formed in the climb to Hawi and on the way back into town was able to close the gap to the main contenders around Patrick. After the race Joe mentioned that his focus in the early part of the run was to make sure he was running his own pace, giving him a chance not to overheat. Even then, he and Matt were running close to each other, slowly gaining one position after another. On the Queen K they moved into the Top 10, and even the heat in the Energy Lab didn’t slow them down. Matt was able to build a small gap to Joe, finished in sixth place and was almost able to run down Braden Currie. Joe took some more time to enjoy the last mile and finished seventh, a minute behind Matt but well ahead of the next athletes.

Around Tenth Place: Andy Potts, Cameron Wurf, Michael Weiss, Javier Gomez, and Andreas Dreitz

For the athletes around tenth place race day developed in different ways:

Andy Potts (dark red line) was racing his own race for most of the day: He didn’t follow the strong swimmers and started the bike in the second group about two minutes behind. When the big bike group overtook him, he didn’t follow them and for a while settled in the group behind them. When that group split up (part of the chasing the Dreitz/Lange group), he once again didn’t chase and continued to ride his own pace. At the end of the bike he was 18th, taking his time in T2 and again continuing to run at his own pace. It wasn’t until the end of the Energy Lab that he moved into the Top 10, passing some more athletes in the final miles and finishing in eighth place.

The athlete probably getting the most camera time was Cameron Wurf (green line). After a great swim in the main group (three minutes behind Josh after almost seven last year), he quickly worked his way to the front, breaking away from the rest of the field with Josh Amberger and Andrew Starykowicz. Starky was doing most of the work leading up to Hawi, but when he and Josh started to struggle at around 75 miles, Cam was powering away, building a lead into T2 of over two minutes to Starky and about six minutes to Josh who was almost swallowed up by the Dreitz/Lange group. By his own account he did not push the pace but was focused on an even output and putting himself in a position for a good run. After posting a new bike course record of 4:09:06 (another three minutes quicker than last year), he was leading the run similar to last year. But while his lead in 2017 was very short-lived (Lionel Sanders overtook him after less than two miles), this year he was running much better and was able to hold on to his lead for much longer. But by the time he hit Palani at about eight miles, his lead had already shrunk to less than two minutes. When Patrick Lange stormed by him on the Queen K, the two exchanged a quick first bump. Cam was quickly overtaken by more runners and he fell out of the Top 5 in the Energy Lab. He started to run with Javier Gomez who wasn’t able to run at the level he was hoping for before the race. Both were losing a few more spots, and in the end Cam was even able to run away from Javier, claiming ninth place with a marathon time of 3:06, a huge improvement over his 3:19 when he finished 17th last year.

Tenth place was claimed by Michael Weiss (violet line) who had worked hard on the bike to close the gap to the front group with the second-best bike split of the day. Though his run improved this season, he wasn’t able to run sub-3 and to capitalize on his fourth position at the end of the bike. Javier Gomez (blue line) was one of the favorites to at least finish on the podium, but he was pretty much a non-factor this year. After a good swim he was content to ride with the Dreitz/Lange group and then lost some time at the end of the bike with a mechanical. But the bike was probably a bit too hard for him – he was never able to make up any time to the fast runners, and a lot of people expected him to run faster than a 2:59 and claim eleventh place in the end.

Next to Camron Wurf, Andi Dreitz (orange line) got the most camera time on the bike: He was leading the group that included his teammate Patrick Lange for about 90 miles, keeping the pace solid. He admitted after the race that he probably worked harder than what was prudent for a good final result, and he slowly fell back on the run. Nonetheless, he didn’t fall apart and was able to run a solid 3:02 marathon, allowing him to claim 13th place just behind Tim Van Berkel.

Pre-Race Favorites Not Having Their Best Days: Lionel Sanders, Andrew Starykowicz, Josh Amberger, and Sebastian Kienle

There are a few more athletes who affected the race or had high hopes for a good Kona finish:

After his second place last year, Lionel Sanders (red line) was one of the pre-race favorites for this year, but after a rocky summer he didn’t have a good race in Kona. While last year he had a great swim, he was one of the last athletes after the swim this year and was never able to make up solid ground. He was working hard in the first half of the bike and around the turn at Hawi it looked as if he was bridging up to the Dreitz/Lange group. But then he fell back to the chase group and wasn’t able to match their pace when they worked to bridge up. He was in 20th pace in T2, starting the run with David McNamee but also didn’t have a strong run. After a 3:15 run he finished in 28th place.

After the swim Andrew Starykowicz (light blue line) was less than two minutes behind the lead, and as promised before the race he quickly stormed to the front of the race and building a solid lead with Josh Amberger and Cam Wurf. But at around 80 miles he started to struggle and was dropping back from Cameron Wurf. At the end of the bike he was more just two minutes back, but then took some extra time in T2 and then obviously wasn’t running comfortably. In the end, he ran a 3:44 marathon and finished in 40th place.

Josh Amberger (violet line) was also at the front of the race for a good while. This year he had no intention to swim away from everyone else, but he probably dragged a few more athletes than intended into T1: There were eight athletes within 20 seconds of him, including Tim O’Donnell and Javier Gomez. But these athletes quickly started to drop back and when Andrew and Cam worked their way to the front of the race, he was able to ride with them building a nice lead. But then he was forced to drop back after about 80 miles and almost chased down by the Dreitz/Lange group. At the start of the run he lost some more time and then dropped out before climbing Palani.

For Sebastian Kienle (green line) Kona 2018 also ended in a DNF. Race day started well for Sebi: After a great swim he was running through T1 with Cam Wurf and Patrick Lange. But right after starting the bike, he had some technical issues and had to get a new rear wheel – in his own words it was like “winning the lottery and then losing the ticket”. After that blow he never seemed to find back into the race – riding with the chase group and then losing more and more time when he would have needed to step it up. He called it a day shortly after T2 when problems with his Achilles made it impossible to continue.

Credit: All photos by Ingo Kutsche

Observations about the 2018 Male Race

There are a few things that stick out in my mind about the 2018 race:

• The first (and most obvious) observation about the 2018 race are the extremely quick times: There were new course records on the bike and overall including the first sub-8 finishes in Kona. The fast times were certainly aided by the fast conditions – there hasn’t been much wind on the bike and the race dynamics helped the overall times.
• I don’t think the swim quite developed the way the fast swimmers had in mind. After Josh Amberger swam away from the rest of the field in 2017 and was isolated for the first part of the bike, he said before the race that he was looking for company. This resulted in a very large front group at the turnaround, almost similar to previous years when no one was really pushing the pace at the front. Josh increased the pace in the second half and the front group dwindled down to less than ten athletes. A stronger pace from the start might have resulted in a smaller front group and also larger gaps in T1.
• As you can see from the data and graphs in “The Cost of the Kona Swim” (a collaboration with Tim Floyd on SwimSwam), it is quite unusual for the eventual winner to be quite that far behind after the swim: In the last 13 races before 2018 only Sebastian Kienle was more than two minutes slower than the average of the ten fastest swims. This year Patrick Lange was almost three minutes slower and needed a strong start of the bike to put himself back into contention and eventually take the win.
• There is a similar observation for Top 10 athletes: It is very unusual for athletes that are more than six minutes slower in the swim to still make it into the Top 10. Between 2005 and 2017 there were only two athletes that were able to do that, this year another three athletes were able to make up the time. The way they did this is also something very unusual: They were able to bridge up to the front group after the turnaround in Hawi. Usually, if you’re still behind at that point, you’ll only lose more time in the second half of the bike. This year, there was a group that was about three minutes behind at the turn but by T2 managed to ride up to the first big group. Among the athletes in that group, Matt Russell and Joe Skipper were still able to have great runs as well and finished sixth and seventh.

Next year’s race will give us an indication whether this year was exceptional or a “new normal”.