Challenge Wanaka 2013 – Predictions

The first long distance race for 2013 is coming up – Challenge Wanaka! The race is set in a beautiful spot in New Zealand’s Southern Alps. It’s a smaller race but this year with a pretty good pro field. There has already been some banter on Twitter about the Aussie – New Zealand rivalry. Apparently Rhodesy started it (“Kiwi’s Vs the Aussie’s going to be fun!”), of course Macca had to weigh in (“will be like stealing candy from kids. Can’t wait mate”) which then triggered a comment from Paul Amey (“the only kids you’ve stolen candy from was your own….when they were asleep!”). The women’s race seems to be safe for New Zealand, but Gina Crawford and Jo Lawn will battle for the win until the end. (The IMTalk guys have a great pre-Wanaka interview with Jo Lawn on IMTalk Episode 343 – Jo Lawn.)

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Aaron Farlow AUS 00:50:43 04:44:51 03:02:41 08:41:53
2 Jamie Whyte NZL 00:51:31 04:47:45 03:08:55 08:51:53
3 Kieran Doe NZL 00:47:44 04:50:23 03:15:42 08:57:17

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:54:21 05:24:10 03:17:16 09:44:06
2 Britta Martin NZL 01:01:58 05:19:27 03:17:11 09:47:39
3 Simone Maier GER 01:05:44 05:22:54 03:20:03 09:57:42

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:41 Richard Ussher 2010-01-16
Swim overall 00:47:44 Kieran Doe 2012-01-21
Bike overall 04:44:51 Aaron Farlow 2012-01-21
Run overall 03:00:04 Scott Defilippis 2012-01-21
Total female 09:28:27 Gina Crawford 2009-01-01
Swim female 00:54:21 Gina Crawford 2012-01-21
Swim female 00:54:21 Nicole Ward 2012-01-21
Bike female 05:19:27 Britta Martin 2012-01-21
Run female 03:17:11 Britta Martin 2012-01-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 04:22.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year Adjustment # of Athletes Rating
2007 03:11 6 03:11
2008 -04:50 9 -00:49
2009 06:06 9 01:29
2010 00:28 12 01:14
2011 -25:05 11 -04:02
2012 -06:01 15 -04:22

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:31:25 08:27:19 10
2 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:50:57 08:46:42 83
3 Leon Griffin AUS 09:01:23 08:57:03 137
4 Keegan Williams NZL 09:05:37 09:01:15 162
5 Axel Reiser NZL 09:13:19 09:08:53 224
6 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:19:41 09:15:12 258
7 Diederik Scheltinga NED n/a unrated n/a
8 Carl Read NZL n/a unrated n/a
9 Dylan McNeice NZL n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:34:16 09:29:40 17
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:39:12 09:34:33 28
3 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:52 09:43:09 44
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:52:11 09:47:26 62
5 Julia Grant NZL 09:59:56 09:55:07 88
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:00:10 09:55:21 88
7 Simone Maier GER 10:05:07 10:00:16 103
8 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:06:09 10:01:17 106
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:47:45 10:42:33 228
10 Ali Hollington NZL n/a unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Chris McCormack: 51% (1-1)
  • Jamie Whyte: 20% (4-1)
  • Keegan Williams: 15% (6-1)
  • Leon Griffin: 7% (13-1)
  • Bryan Rhodes: 4% (23-1)
  • Axel Reiser: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Gina Crawford: 50% (1-1)
  • Joanna Lawn: 28% (3-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 9% (10-1)
  • Kim Loeffler: 8% (12-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 5% (20-1)
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