Challenge Wanaka 2013 – Predictions

The first long distance race for 2013 is coming up – Challenge Wanaka! The race is set in a beautiful spot in New Zealand’s Southern Alps. It’s a smaller race but this year with a pretty good pro field. There has already been some banter on Twitter about the Aussie – New Zealand rivalry. Apparently Rhodesy started it (“Kiwi’s Vs the Aussie’s going to be fun!”), of course Macca had to weigh in (“will be like stealing candy from kids. Can’t wait mate”) which then triggered a comment from Paul Amey (“the only kids you’ve stolen candy from was your own….when they were asleep!”). The women’s race seems to be safe for New Zealand, but Gina Crawford and Jo Lawn will battle for the win until the end. (The IMTalk guys have a great pre-Wanaka interview with Jo Lawn on IMTalk Episode 343 – Jo Lawn.)

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Aaron Farlow	AUS	00:50:43	04:44:51	03:02:41	08:41:53
2	Jamie Whyte	NZL	00:51:31	04:47:45	03:08:55	08:51:53
3	Kieran Doe	NZL	00:47:44	04:50:23	03:15:42	08:57:17

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:54:21	05:24:10	03:17:16	09:44:06
2	Britta Martin	NZL	01:01:58	05:19:27	03:17:11	09:47:39
3	Simone Maier	GER	01:05:44	05:22:54	03:20:03	09:57:42

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:34:41	Richard Ussher	2010-01-16
Swim	overall	00:47:44	Kieran Doe	2012-01-21
Bike	overall	04:44:51	Aaron Farlow	2012-01-21
Run	overall	03:00:04	Scott Defilippis	2012-01-21
Total	female	09:28:27	Gina Crawford	2009-01-01
Swim	female	00:54:21	Gina Crawford	2012-01-21
Swim	female	00:54:21	Nicole Ward	2012-01-21
Bike	female	05:19:27	Britta Martin	2012-01-21
Run	female	03:17:11	Britta Martin	2012-01-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 04:22.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year	Adjustment	# of Athletes	Rating
2007	03:11	6	03:11
2008	-04:50	9	-00:49
2009	06:06	9	01:29
2010	00:28	12	01:14
2011	-25:05	11	-04:02
2012	-06:01	15	-04:22

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Chris McCormack	AUS	08:31:25	08:27:19	10
2	Jamie Whyte	NZL	08:50:57	08:46:42	83
3	Leon Griffin	AUS	09:01:23	08:57:03	137
4	Keegan Williams	NZL	09:05:37	09:01:15	162
5	Axel Reiser	NZL	09:13:19	09:08:53	224
6	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:19:41	09:15:12	258
7	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	n/a	unrated	n/a
8	Carl Read	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
9	Dylan McNeice	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:34:16	09:29:40	17
2	Joanna Lawn	NZL	09:39:12	09:34:33	28
3	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:47:52	09:43:09	44
4	Kim Loeffler	USA	09:52:11	09:47:26	62
5	Julia Grant	NZL	09:59:56	09:55:07	88
6	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:00:10	09:55:21	88
7	Simone Maier	GER	10:05:07	10:00:16	103
8	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	10:06:09	10:01:17	106
9	Jodie Scott	AUS	10:47:45	10:42:33	228
10	Ali Hollington	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Chris McCormack: 51% (1-1)
• Jamie Whyte: 20% (4-1)
• Keegan Williams: 15% (6-1)
• Leon Griffin: 7% (13-1)
• Bryan Rhodes: 4% (23-1)
• Axel Reiser: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

• Gina Crawford: 50% (1-1)
• Joanna Lawn: 28% (3-1)
• Kate Bevilaqua: 9% (10-1)
• Kim Loeffler: 8% (12-1)
• Candice Hammond: 5% (20-1)