IM Louisville 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Louisville is a relatively slow course (probably because of the heat) with a course rating of 2:53 (but quite some variation). Last year’s winners were Chris McDonald in 8:27 and Nina Kraft in 9:38. The course records are 08:25:27 by Victor Zyemtsev and 09:20:21 by Nina Kraft, both from 2009. This year, it is a 1.000 points race, so I don’t expect any Kona contenders to race this race.

Male Participants

Chris McDonald is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:45:34 08:48:23 74
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:50:13 08:53:03 100
3 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:06:15 09:09:10 198
4 Jim Lamastra   09:06:31 09:09:27 202
5 Ivan Albano BRA 09:19:10 09:22:10 303
6 Peter Kotland USA 09:28:07 09:31:09 372
7 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:40:08 09:43:14 447
8 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:47:19 09:50:28 507
9 Bojan Maric SCG 10:09:47 10:13:03 641
10 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:09:48 10:13:04 642
11 Yong Taek Kim KOR 10:11:20 10:14:36 653
12 Andrew Hodges   n/a unrated n/a
13 Timothy Beardall   n/a unrated n/a
14 Jared Woodford   n/a unrated n/a
15 Mike Hermanson   n/a unrated n/a
16 Robert Wade   n/a unrated n/a
17 Thomas Maliszewski   n/a unrated n/a
18 Ed Donner   n/a unrated n/a

He is also the one with the best winning odds:

  • Chris McDonald: 51%
  • Patrick Evoe: 41%

Other than these two, no athlete has a reasonable (statistical) chance of winning the race.

Female Participants

As for the men, last year’s winner Nina Kraft is back to defend her title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:34:21 09:37:25 31
2 Jessica Smith USA 09:46:04 09:49:12 63
3 Bree Wee USA 09:55:34 09:58:45 91
4 Jackie Arendt USA 10:01:48 10:05:01 107
5 Terra Castro USA 10:14:58 10:18:16 156
6 April Lea Gellatly USA 10:30:27 10:33:50 197
7 Tatiana Vertiz   10:53:39 10:57:09 247
8 Amanda McKenzie AUS 11:08:04 11:11:39 261

She also leads the winning odds:

  • Nina Kraft: 57%
  • Jackie Arendt: 15%
  • Bree Wee: 11%
  • Jessica Smith: 10%
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