IM France 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM France is one of the classic races – even if it used to be called “Niece” and was contested on the “Niece distance” (4-120-30). For quite a while now the race has be re-branded as IM France and is an iron-distance race. Especially the bike course is quite hard, the total course is “medium fast” – with a course rating of 7:14 it is similar to IM Arizona.

Last year’s race was won by Frederik Van Lierde (8:39) and Sylvia Felt (9:34). The course records are held by Marcel Zamora (8:25:28) and Tine Deckers (9:21:29).

Male Participants

Last year’s winner is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:27:06 08:34:32 23
2 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:36:31 08:44:05 46
3 Francois Chabaud FRA 08:38:50 08:46:26 62
4 Herve Faure FRA 08:44:30 08:52:11 96
5 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:45:40 08:53:22 101
6 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:54:44 09:02:34 148
7 Sergio Marques PRT 08:57:17 09:05:09 162
8 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:57:23 09:05:16 163
9 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:01:45 09:09:41 193
10 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:11 09:11:09 205
11 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:31 09:11:29 209
12 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:12:46 09:20:52 292
13 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:15:58 09:24:07 308
14 Scott Defilippis USA 09:16:10 09:24:19 313
15 Marcel Bischof GER 09:28:41 09:37:01 406
16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:50:53 09:59:33 558
17 Christophe Hamard   10:10:14 10:19:11 674
18 Anthony Pannier   n/a unrated n/a
19 Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated n/a
20 Pierre Dorez   n/a unrated n/a
21 Zoltan Senczyszyn   n/a unrated n/a
22 David Vazquez ESP n/a unrated n/a
23 Ivan Kharin   n/a unrated n/a
24 Lance Armstrong   n/a unrated n/a
25 Ulrik Schaarup   n/a unrated n/a
26 Rafael Gomes   n/a unrated n/a

Freddy also has the best winning chances:

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 50%
  • Marcel Zamora: 20%
  • Francois Chabaud: 18%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 5%

The other main contender might be Lance Armstrong. He hasn’t finished any full IMs yet, so I can’t predict his performance based on past results. At least at the time of writing (Monday evening before the race), it was very doubtful if Lance would be able to start based on the investigation by USADA.

Female Participants

On the women’s side, course record holder Tine Deckers will try to repeat her 2010 win, but she only has the second best rating in the field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:27:17 09:35:36 23
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:28:43 09:37:03 30
3 Kristin Moeller GER 09:43:00 09:51:33 65
4 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:45:07 09:53:41 70
5 Martina Dogana ITA 09:46:05 09:54:40 72
6 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 10:11:28 10:20:26 158
7 Anne Basso FRA 10:16:46 10:25:48 176

Here are the winning odds:

  • Gina Crawford: 48%
  • Tine Deckers: 25%
  • Kristin Moeller: 14%
  • Tamara Kozulina: 10%

Since coming back to racing after having a child, Gina has posted solid results, so I consider her the favorite for the race.

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