Skip to content

IM Louisville 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Louisville is a relatively slow course (probably because of the heat) with a course rating of 2:53 (but quite some variation). Last year’s winners were Chris McDonald in 8:27 and Nina Kraft in 9:38. The course records are 08:25:27 by Victor Zyemtsev and 09:20:21 by Nina Kraft, both from 2009. This year, it is a 1.000 points race, so I don’t expect any Kona contenders to race this race.

Male Participants

Chris McDonald is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:45:34 08:48:23 74
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:50:13 08:53:03 100
3 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:06:15 09:09:10 198
4 Jim Lamastra   09:06:31 09:09:27 202
5 Ivan Albano BRA 09:19:10 09:22:10 303
6 Peter Kotland USA 09:28:07 09:31:09 372
7 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:40:08 09:43:14 447
8 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:47:19 09:50:28 507
9 Bojan Maric SCG 10:09:47 10:13:03 641
10 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 10:09:48 10:13:04 642
11 Yong Taek Kim KOR 10:11:20 10:14:36 653
12 Andrew Hodges   n/a unrated n/a
13 Timothy Beardall   n/a unrated n/a
14 Jared Woodford   n/a unrated n/a
15 Mike Hermanson   n/a unrated n/a
16 Robert Wade   n/a unrated n/a
17 Thomas Maliszewski   n/a unrated n/a
18 Ed Donner   n/a unrated n/a

He is also the one with the best winning odds:

  • Chris McDonald: 51%
  • Patrick Evoe: 41%

Other than these two, no athlete has a reasonable (statistical) chance of winning the race.

Female Participants

As for the men, last year’s winner Nina Kraft is back to defend her title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:34:21 09:37:25 31
2 Jessica Smith USA 09:46:04 09:49:12 63
3 Bree Wee USA 09:55:34 09:58:45 91
4 Jackie Arendt USA 10:01:48 10:05:01 107
5 Terra Castro USA 10:14:58 10:18:16 156
6 April Lea Gellatly USA 10:30:27 10:33:50 197
7 Tatiana Vertiz   10:53:39 10:57:09 247
8 Amanda McKenzie AUS 11:08:04 11:11:39 261

She also leads the winning odds:

  • Nina Kraft: 57%
  • Jackie Arendt: 15%
  • Bree Wee: 11%
  • Jessica Smith: 10%
Select your currency
EUR Euro
USD United States (US) dollar

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close