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IM Lanzarote 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Lanzarote is one of the classic IM races – similar to Kona as it is held on a volcanic island with often very hard conditions. It has a course rating of –3:05, meaning it is a bit slower than IM Hawaii. Last year’s winners were Timo Bracht (in a course record of 8:30:34) and Rachel Joyce (9:28:12 – not sure if this is the female course record, my results only go back to 2005 and this is the fastest time I have).

Male Participants

There is no rockstar name on the list, but a few second-tier athletes will look for a prestigious IM win:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:50:10 08:47:10 69
2 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:51:34 08:48:33 83
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:53:31 08:50:30 90
4 Bert Jammaer BEL 09:00:25 08:57:21 118
5 Philip Graves GBR 09:00:32 08:57:28 120
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:00:35 08:57:31 121
7 Simon Billeau FRA 09:04:23 09:01:18 145
8 Patrick Jaberg SWI 09:05:49 09:02:43 151
9 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:08:11 09:05:05 162
10 Sergio Marques PRT 09:09:02 09:05:55 169
11 Alvaro Velazquez ESP 09:19:59 09:16:49 245
12 Ueli Bieler SUI 09:24:56 09:21:44 296
13 Xavier Diepart BEL 09:27:04 09:23:51 307
14 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:27:11 09:23:58 308
15 Oliver Simon GBR 09:34:02 09:30:47 365
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:47:21 09:44:01 449
17 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 09:58:04 09:54:41 525
18 Victor Del Corral ESP n/a unrated n/a
19 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA n/a unrated n/a
20 Bryan Mccrystal IRE n/a unrated n/a
21 Till Schramm GER n/a unrated n/a
22 David Vazquez ESP n/a unrated n/a
23 Antonio Cardona ESP n/a unrated n/a
24 Remy Vasseur NED n/a unrated n/a
25 Daniel Halksworth GBR n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Bert Jammaer: 30%
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 18%
  • Stephen Bayliss: 18%
  • Philip Graves: 11%
  • Petr Vabrousek: 9%

Kirill Kotshegarov may be the best ranked athlete, but he doesn’t have the experience of a Bert Jammaer or a Stephen Bayliss that might be necessary for winning on such a tough course. Philip Graves comes back to IM racing after a two season hiatus – and if these athletes run into issues, “I hate to train so I just race” Petr Vabrousek will be there with a solid result. He has raced more than 50 IMs, but I don’t know if he has ever won one (I don’t have one in my results). Maybe this year in Lanzarote?

For a while it looked as if Andi Böcherer would be a late addition to the race after his DNF in South Africa. He tweeted that he would start, but then decided to take some more time to recover properly.

Female Participants

On the female side, there are also no rockstars, but quite a few solid racers:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:30:26 09:27:12 10
2 Bella Bayliss GBR 09:44:56 09:41:37 39
3 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:51:33 09:48:12 55
4 Nicole Woysch GER 10:22:30 10:18:58 153
5 Katya Meyers USA 10:24:05 10:20:33 160
6 Christine Hemphill AUS 10:30:53 10:27:19 181
7 Ute Streiter AUT 10:35:58 10:32:22 191
8 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 11:09:32 11:05:44 248
9 Tine Holst DEN n/a unrated n/a
10 Carla Van Rooijen NED n/a unrated n/a
11 Saleta Castro ESP n/a unrated n/a
12 Melina de Monserratt PRU n/a unrated n/a
13 Christine Waitz GER n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds show a picture that is a bit different:

  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 32%
  • Michelle Vesterby: 29%
  • Bella Bayliss: 27%

Three potential winners, each with a different background: Michelle Vesterby has not yet raced a lot (but managed to post a few fast times), Heleen Bij de Vaate is a very solid racer (even if she doesn’t yet have the speed to win Kona) and Bella Bayliss coming back after having a baby,

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