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IM Australia 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Ironman Australia does not draw a big field – no surprise for a 1.000-points race. It has a course rating of 3:53, but has seen adjustments around 8 minutes in the last years, so the course can be quick. The course records are held by Chris McCormack (8:20:41 in 2006) and Chrissie Wellington (8:57:10 in 2009).

Last year, we had two “big names” win the race: Pete Jacobs in 8:29:28 and Caroline Steffen in 9:29:54. After all, Australia is a nice location and well placed in the year to prepare for Kona once qualifying is out of the way.

Male Participants


Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:47:24 08:51:13 91
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:50:30 08:54:20 106
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:57 08:56:48 115
4 Dan Brown PHI 08:54:13 08:58:05 124
5 Leon Griffin AUS 08:58:46 09:02:40 150
6 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:13:52 09:17:52 259
7 Scott Defilippis USA 09:19:49 09:23:52 306

Looking at the winning odds, it ‘s going to be a three way race:

  • Paul Ambrose: 36%
  • Tim Berkel: 36%
  • Jason Shortis: 16%

Female Participants

The field on the women’s side is even smaller:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:38:05 09:42:16 42
2 Kat Baker AUS 09:58:22 10:02:42 91
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:34 10:04:55 99
4 Hillary Biscay USA 10:10:14 10:14:39 140

All athletes have a chance to win, but Michelle Mitchell is the clear favorite:

  • Michelle Mitchell: 57%
  • Nicole Ward: 17%
  • Hillary Biscay: 16%
  • Kat Baker: 10%
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