IM South Africa 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

With a course rating of 7:03, South Africa is one of the medium quick courses, comparable to IM France or IM Arizona. However, the adjustment has seen quite a lot of movement, so conditions on race day are going to have an influence on how quick the race is going to be. Last years winners were Raynard Tissink in 8:05:36 (in front of Andi Böcherer and James Cunnama) and Chrissie Wellington in a super-quick 8:33:56 (followed by Rachel Joyce and Diana Riesler).

Male Participants

The top three from last year are back:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Raynard Tissink ZAF 08:27:00 08:33:42 20
2 Andi Boecherer GER 08:34:49 08:41:38 37
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:36:30 08:43:20 45
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:47 08:43:37 46
5 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:38:53 08:45:45 58
6 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:39:00 08:45:52 59
7 Markus Fachbach GER 08:39:11 08:46:03 61
8 James Cunnama ZAF 08:40:30 08:47:23 71
9 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:43:56 08:50:52 91
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:50:08 08:57:09 119
11 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:51:38 08:58:40 127
12 Jonathan Hotchkiss GBR 08:52:57 09:00:00 135
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:56:33 09:03:39 156
14 Joseph Spindler GER 08:57:52 09:04:59 161
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:00:05 09:07:14 178
16 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:50 09:11:02 205
17 Michael Wetzel GER 09:08:45 09:16:00 234
18 Kent Horner ZAF 09:10:45 09:18:02 260
19 Ivan Albano BRA 09:12:50 09:20:09 282
20 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:18 09:52:02 507
21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 10:17:50 10:26:00 708

These three athletes also top the odds:

  • Raynard Tissink: 39%
  • Andi Boecherer: 35%
  • James Cunnama: 11%
  • Mike Aigroz: 8%

Statistically, in addition to Tissink, Böcherer and Cunname only last year’s Hawaii TOP 10 athlete Mike Aigroz has a realistic chance of winning – all the other well rated athletes do not have enough results under their belt. However, any of these athlete may be able to surprise if they manage to race as well as they did last time – the ratings are close enough to promise an exciting race!

Update: Apparently, Ray Tissink has entered the race, but is not really aiming for a top finish. (He tweeted “let’s make it 100% clear, I’m not racing [for a fast time]. Going to have fun and experience what everybody else in the event does.”) Apparently, he is taking some time off Ironman, but is “not retired yet. Taking some time to get my head straight after a disappointing year. Will be back at IMSA next year.”

Update: Not only is Raynard Tissink out of contention, but James Cunnama has withdrawn and will not start. With these two changes, the odds change to

  • Andi Böcherer 51%
  • Markus Fachbach 14%
  • Mike Aigroz 14% 
  • Guilherme Manocchio 10%

Female Participants

While the men’s race looks quite close, the field on the women’s side is not as deep:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:25:51 09:33:20 22
2 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:30:37 09:38:10 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:32:42 09:40:16 40
4 Susan Dietrich GER 09:33:38 09:41:13 42
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:56 10:10:54 126
6 Anne Basso FRA 10:17:18 10:25:28 176
7 Claire Horner ZAF 10:31:11 10:39:32 206
8 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:36:43 10:45:08 216
9 Jodie Swallow GBR n/a unrated n/a

Natascha Badmann still has the best rating of the field, but if she won it would be quite a surprise. Here’s a look at the odds for the race:

  • Virginia Berasategui: 41%
  • Natascha Badmann: 27%
  • Diana Riesler: 22%
  • Susan Dietrich: 6.%
  • Jacqui Gordon: 4%

Jodie Swallow is still on the start list, but she’s got a stress fracture in her foot and will not be able to start. (On her blog, she said that she has “to postpone Ironman South Africa victory until next year”.) My best wishes for a quick recovery!

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