IM Western Australia 2011 – Predictions

The final race of the Ironman 2011 season is coming up this weekend: Ironman Western Australia.

Previous Results

Western Australia is one of the quicker courses with the same course rating as IM Germany (11:54). Last year’s winners were Courtney Ogden (8:14) and Kate Bevilaqua (9:19).

Male Participants

Defending champion Courtney Ogden faces some very strong competition for his title – he has only the 8th best rating! (Still, he has the second highest odds for winning.) The favorite has to be Timo Bracht – apparently he is repeating his last season with an early qualifier to secure his spot for Kona:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 08:13:08 08:24:14 7
2 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:27:14 08:38:39 28
3 Leon Griffin AUS 08:28:09 08:39:36 31
4 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:28:15 08:39:42 33
5 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:30:48 08:42:18 40
6 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:32:58 08:44:31 47
7 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:33:41 08:45:15 54
8 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:34:32 08:46:07 59
9 Simon Billeau FRA 08:43:43 08:55:31 113
10 Jason Shortis AUS 08:46:28 08:58:19 125
11 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:46:51 08:58:43 128
12 Guy Crawford AUS 08:50:45 09:02:42 150
13 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:54:52 09:06:55 175
14 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:05:43 09:18:00 257
15 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:05:53 09:18:11 257
16 Dion Harrison GBR 09:16:32 09:29:04 345
17 James Bowstead NZL 09:24:40 09:37:23 401
18 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 09:58:19 10:11:47 627

The odds for winning are as follows:

  • Timo Bracht: 60%
  • Courtney Ogden: 14%
  • Luke McKenzie: 9%
  • Mitchell Anderson: 7%
  • Jason Shortis: 4%
  • Maik Twelsiek: 3%
  • Aaron Farlow: 2%

Female Participants

Similar story on the women’s side: The defending champ (Kate Bevilaqua, ranked 4th) faces strong competition, even if the females athletes before her are not that well known:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kristin Moeller GER 09:22:07 09:34:47 22
2 Carrie Lester AUS 09:31:40 09:44:32 46
3 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:32:42 09:45:36 48
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:45:05 09:58:16 78
5 Emi Shiono JPN 09:55:25 10:08:50 110
6 Hillary Biscay USA 10:03:19 10:16:54 145
7 Yvette Grice GBR 10:07:01 10:20:41 157
8 Elly Franks AUS 10:16:38 10:30:31 183
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:27:01 10:41:08 207
10 Michelle Bremer NZL n/a unrated n/a

The odds for winning are as follows (again the defending champ looks better in the odds than in the ratings):

  • Kristin Moeller: 35%
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 22%
  • Michelle Mitchell: 18%
  • Carrie Lester: 16%
  • Emi Shiono: 4%
  • Yvette Grice: 3%
  • Hillary Biscay: 2%
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