IM Wisconsin 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Wisconsin is one of the slower courses, with a course rating of –4:09 it is just a bit slower than Kona. It is usually quite hot and the bike course is rolling, so if you don’t race smart there is a good chance of blowing up later in the race.

Last year’s winners were Ezekiel Morales (ARG) in 8:45:18 and Jessica Jacobs (USA) in 9:41:03, short of the course records of 8:38:32 (Joe Gambles, 2010) and 9:27:26 (Gina Crawford, also 2010).

Wisconsin is the first race to collect KPR points for Kona 2013. Even if it is “only” a 1.000 points race, there are already athletes that want to get a head start for the 2013 season.

Male Participants

Eduardo Sturla has the best rating of the male pros:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Eduardo Sturla	ARG	08:48:13	08:44:12	50
2	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:51:11	08:47:08	64
3	Nick Waninger		08:52:50	08:48:47	80
4	Justin Daerr	USA	08:53:35	08:49:31	84
5	Kevin Taddonio	USA	09:07:25	09:03:15	154
6	Markus Ressler	AUT	09:13:57	09:09:44	201
7	Ian Mikelson	USA	09:14:11	09:09:58	202
8	Dominik Berger	AUT	09:14:49	09:10:36	209
9	Zach Ruble	USA	09:14:56	09:10:43	211
10	Jared Milam	USA	09:17:00	09:12:46	225
11	Toby Radcliffe	GBR	09:27:55	09:23:36	313
12	Billy Edwards	USA	09:33:19	09:28:57	345
13	Peter Kotland	USA	09:35:52	09:31:29	361
14	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:40:00	09:35:35	394
15	Thomas Gerlach	USA	09:48:06	09:43:37	443
16	Blake Becker	USA	10:18:28	10:13:46	633
17	Greg Close	USA	n/a	unrated	n/a

However, I consider Ben Hoffman as the race favorite and Justin Daerr has about the same winning odds as Eduardo:

• Ben Hoffman: 35%
• Justin Daerr: 28%
• Eduardo Sturla: 26%

Female Participants

There is a similar situation in the women’s field. Kathleen Calkins has the best rating (but from only one result):

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Kathleen Calkins	USA	09:32:41	09:28:19	13
2	Kim Loeffler	USA	09:51:19	09:46:49	54
3	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:01:53	09:57:18	82
4	Beth Walsh	USA	10:07:16	10:02:39	96
5	Whitney Garcia	USA	10:07:43	10:03:05	99
6	Charisa Wernick	USA	10:09:11	10:04:33	108
7	Danielle Sullivan	USA	10:15:51	10:11:10	133
8	Hillary Biscay	USA	10:19:04	10:14:21	142
9	Katya Meyers	USA	10:31:31	10:26:43	180
10	Suzanne Zelazo	CAN	11:00:56	10:55:54	245
11	Elizabeth Lyles		n/a	unrated	n/a
12	Andrea Hutchins		n/a	unrated	n/a

However, her rating is quite a lot better than the next athletes, so she also has the best winning odds:

• Kathleen Calkins: 32%
• Kim Loeffler: 30%
• Kate Bevilaqua: 18%
• Charisa Wernick: 13%