IM Wisconsin 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Wisconsin is one of the slower courses, with a course rating of –4:09 it is just a bit slower than Kona. It is usually quite hot and the bike course is rolling, so if you don’t race smart there is a good chance of blowing up later in the race.

Last year’s winners were Ezekiel Morales (ARG) in 8:45:18 and Jessica Jacobs (USA) in 9:41:03, short of the course records of 8:38:32 (Joe Gambles, 2010) and 9:27:26 (Gina Crawford, also 2010).

Wisconsin is the first race to collect KPR points for Kona 2013. Even if it is “only” a 1.000 points race, there are already athletes that want to get a head start for the 2013 season.

Male Participants

Eduardo Sturla has the best rating of the male pros:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:48:13 08:44:12 50
2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:51:11 08:47:08 64
3 Nick Waninger 08:52:50 08:48:47 80
4 Justin Daerr USA 08:53:35 08:49:31 84
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 09:07:25 09:03:15 154
6 Markus Ressler AUT 09:13:57 09:09:44 201
7 Ian Mikelson USA 09:14:11 09:09:58 202
8 Dominik Berger AUT 09:14:49 09:10:36 209
9 Zach Ruble USA 09:14:56 09:10:43 211
10 Jared Milam USA 09:17:00 09:12:46 225
11 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:27:55 09:23:36 313
12 Billy Edwards USA 09:33:19 09:28:57 345
13 Peter Kotland USA 09:35:52 09:31:29 361
14 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:40:00 09:35:35 394
15 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:48:06 09:43:37 443
16 Blake Becker USA 10:18:28 10:13:46 633
17 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a

However, I consider Ben Hoffman as the race favorite and Justin Daerr has about the same winning odds as Eduardo:

  • Ben Hoffman: 35%
  • Justin Daerr: 28%
  • Eduardo Sturla: 26%

Female Participants

There is a similar situation in the women’s field. Kathleen Calkins has the best rating (but from only one result):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:32:41 09:28:19 13
2 Kim Loeffler USA 09:51:19 09:46:49 54
3 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:01:53 09:57:18 82
4 Beth Walsh USA 10:07:16 10:02:39 96
5 Whitney Garcia USA 10:07:43 10:03:05 99
6 Charisa Wernick USA 10:09:11 10:04:33 108
7 Danielle Sullivan USA 10:15:51 10:11:10 133
8 Hillary Biscay USA 10:19:04 10:14:21 142
9 Katya Meyers USA 10:31:31 10:26:43 180
10 Suzanne Zelazo CAN 11:00:56 10:55:54 245
11 Elizabeth Lyles n/a unrated n/a
12 Andrea Hutchins n/a unrated n/a

However, her rating is quite a lot better than the next athletes, so she also has the best winning odds:

  • Kathleen Calkins: 32%
  • Kim Loeffler: 30%
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 18%
  • Charisa Wernick: 13%

2 Responses to IM Wisconsin 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

  1. Thomas Gerlach Professional Triathlete September 5, 2012 at 5:42 am #

    Haha, I am thinking I never get any respect from your rankings, but that is just the way I like it. On the other hand it is a great succinct place to survey my competition. Happy to fly under the radar. Thanks for providing this valuable resource.

    -TG

    Thomas Gerlach
    Professional Triathlete
    http://www.thomasgerlach.com

    • Thorsten September 5, 2012 at 5:54 pm #

      Thanks Thomas,

      I’m glad that the data makes your race prep a little easier. If you can deliver some more performances as your Louisville result, I’m sure your rating will be more indicative of your “true potential”. 🙂

      All the best for your race this weekend
      Thorsten

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