Update July 20th: In the latest startlists a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the tables below.
The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over – the July qualifying period that decides 28 female and 40 male slots ends on July 24th. There are only three more Ironman races (Switzerland, Lake Placid as WPRO only and Whistler as MPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Calgary) before the first cutoff. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.
After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible. (The women’s ranking is already up.)
Assuming that Heather Jackson validates her slot by finishing in Lake Placid, Ariane Monticelli is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake her:
|24||Walter, Verena||DEU||4.600||3+1 (405/435)|
|25||Tondeur, Alexandra||BEL||4.530||2+3 (1280/435)|
|26||Gerdes, Beth||USA||4.490||2+3 (1375/280)|
|28||Monticeli, Ariane||BRA||4.335||2+3 (340/500)||IM Zürich|
|29||Robertson, Jodie||USA||4.305||1+3 (3400/240)||70.3 Calgary,
|33||Bilham, Emma||CHE||3.755||1+3 (1600/240)||IM Zürich||5th|
|36||Grohmann, Katharina||DEU||3.205||3+1 (855/320)||IM Zürich||Win|
|37||Moeller, Kristin||DEU||3.145||2+1||IM Zürich||3rd|
|38||Badmann, Natascha||CHE||3.095||2+2||IM Zürich||3rd|
|47||Herlbauer, Michaela||AUT||2.585||2+2||IM Zürich||Win|
(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)
With Daniela Ryf also on the start line in Zürich, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open five July slots:
- Verena Walter remains in the Top 28 (1). (It is possible but quite unlikely for her to drop out of the Top 28.)
- Jodie Robertson should be able to finish at least in the Top
10 in Lake Placid3 in Calgary (2).
- Zürich is the race with the most athletes looking for slots, with probably two athletes racing well enough for a slot – possibly Ariane Monticelli and one of Emma, Kristin and Natascha (3 & 4).
- The last slot would then go to Alexandra Tondeur – but she could be overtaken when more of the Zürich athletes finish well (5).
This would mean that Beth Gerdes and Carrie Lester would drop out of the July slots and that they would have to hope for a rolldown slot.
Assuming that Andy Potts validates his slot by finishing in Lake Placid, David Plese is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake him:
|31||Vistica, Andrej||HRV||3.770||3+2 (720/30)||IM Zürich|
|34||Bittner, Per||DEU||3.620||2+3 (1280/75)|
|35||Petersen-Bach, Jens||DNK||3.610||3+1 (685/115)|
|36||Millward, Callum||NZL||3.580||2+3 (685/435)||IM Whistler|
|37||Wiltshire, Harry||GBR||3.495||3+2 (720/135)||IM Zürich|
|38||Billard, Bertrand||FRA||3.490||2+2||IM Zürich|
|39||Chrabot, Matt||USA||3.470||2+3 (235/345)|
|40||Plese, David||SVN||3.415||3+2 (90/100)||IM Zürich|
|41||Matthews, Paul||AUS||3.225||1+3 (2455/145)||70.3 Calgary||2nd|
|43||Bracht, Timo||DEU||2.995||2+2||IM Zürich||6th|
|46||Gomes, Pedro||PRT||2.797||2+1||IM Whistler||5th|
|49||Aigroz, Mike||CHE||2.555||2+3 (120/75)||IM Whistler||4th|
|54||Carvalho, Fabio||BRA||2.460||1+3 (1670/135)||IM Zürich||4th|
|55||Van Berkel, Jan||CHE||2.455||2+2||IM Zürich||3rd|
|56||Wurtele, Trevor||CAN||2.445||1+3 (540/625)||IM Whistler||3rd|
|62||Schildknecht, Ronnie||CHE||2.190||2+0||IM Zürich||3rd|
|63||Brader, Christian||DEU||2.099||3+1 (405/9)||IM Zürich||2nd|
|66||Daerr, Justin||USA||2.030||2+1||IM Whistler||2nd|
Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open ten July slots:
- The athletes currently in #31 to #34 (Andrej, Ivan, Denis and Per) will remain in the Top 40
(1 to 4).
- Three of the Whistler athletes will finish well enough for a slot – maybe Callum, Pedro and
ViktorMike (5 to 7).
- At least two of the Zürich athletes will finish well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Ronnie Schildknecht and Timo Bracht (8 and 9).
- The last slot should be decided Jens Petersen-Bach and one other Zürich athlete (10).
But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!