KPR Situation Before the Last July Races

Update July 20th: In the latest startlists a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the tables below.

The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over – the July qualifying period that decides 28 female and 40 male slots ends on July 24th. There are only three more Ironman races (Switzerland, Lake Placid as WPRO only and Whistler as MPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Calgary) before the first cutoff. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible. (The women’s ranking is already up.)

Women’s Qualifying

Assuming that Heather Jackson validates her slot by finishing in Lake Placid, Ariane Monticelli is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake her:

Rank	Name	Country	Points	Races	Race Plan	Needed
24	Walter, Verena	DEU	4.600	3+1 (405/435)
25	Tondeur, Alexandra	BEL	4.530	2+3 (1280/435)
26	Gerdes, Beth	USA	4.490	2+3 (1375/280)
27	Lester, Carrie	AUS	4.420	2+2
28	Monticeli, Ariane	BRA	4.335	2+3 (340/500)	IM Zürich
29	Robertson, Jodie	USA	4.305	1+3 (3400/240)	70.3 Calgary, IM Lake Placid	3rd, 14th
33	Bilham, Emma	CHE	3.755	1+3 (1600/240)	IM Zürich	5th
35	Williamson, Kelly	USA	3.215	2+1	IM Lake Placid	3rd
36	Grohmann, Katharina	DEU	3.205	3+1 (855/320)	IM Zürich	Win
37	Moeller, Kristin	DEU	3.145	2+1	IM Zürich	3rd
38	Badmann, Natascha	CHE	3.095	2+2	IM Zürich	3rd
47	Herlbauer, Michaela	AUT	2.585	2+2	IM Zürich	Win

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

With Daniela Ryf also on the start line in Zürich, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open five July slots:

• Verena Walter remains in the Top 28 (1). (It is possible but quite unlikely for her to drop out of the Top 28.)
• Jodie Robertson should be able to finish at least in the Top 10 in Lake Placid 3 in Calgary (2).
• Zürich is the race with the most athletes looking for slots, with probably two athletes racing well enough for a slot – possibly Ariane Monticelli and one of Emma, Kristin and Natascha (3 & 4).
• The last slot would then go to Alexandra Tondeur – but she could be overtaken when more of the Zürich athletes finish well (5).

This would mean that Beth Gerdes and Carrie Lester would drop out of the July slots and that they would have to hope for a rolldown slot.

Men’s Qualifying

Assuming that Andy Potts validates his slot by finishing in Lake Placid, David Plese is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake him:

Rank	Name	Country	Points	Races	Race Plan	Needed
31	Vistica, Andrej	HRV	3.770	3+2 (720/30)	IM Zürich
32	Rana, Ivan	ESP	3.745	2+1
33	Chevrot, Denis	FRA	3.735	2+2
34	Bittner, Per	DEU	3.620	2+3 (1280/75)
35	Petersen-Bach, Jens	DNK	3.610	3+1 (685/115)
36	Millward, Callum	NZL	3.580	2+3 (685/435)	IM Whistler
37	Wiltshire, Harry	GBR	3.495	3+2 (720/135)	IM Zürich
38	Billard, Bertrand	FRA	3.490	2+2	IM Zürich
39	Chrabot, Matt	USA	3.470	2+3 (235/345)
40	Plese, David	SVN	3.415	3+2 (90/100)	IM Zürich
41	Matthews, Paul	AUS	3.225	1+3 (2455/145)	70.3 Calgary	2nd
43	Bracht, Timo	DEU	2.995	2+2	IM Zürich	6th
46	Gomes, Pedro	PRT	2.797	2+1	IM Whistler	5th
48	Zyemtsev, Viktor	UKR	2.575	1+2	IM Whistler	4th
49	Aigroz, Mike	CHE	2.555	2+3 (120/75)	IM Whistler	4th
54	Carvalho, Fabio	BRA	2.460	1+3 (1670/135)	IM Zürich	4th
55	Van Berkel, Jan	CHE	2.455	2+2	IM Zürich	3rd
56	Wurtele, Trevor	CAN	2.445	1+3 (540/625)	IM Whistler	3rd
62	Schildknecht, Ronnie	CHE	2.190	2+0	IM Zürich	3rd
63	Brader, Christian	DEU	2.099	3+1 (405/9)	IM Zürich	2nd
66	Daerr, Justin	USA	2.030	2+1	IM Whistler	2nd
84	Collins, Benjamin	USA	1.635	2+3 (60/125)	IM Whistler	Win

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open ten July slots:

• The athletes currently in #31 to #34 (Andrej, Ivan, Denis and Per) will remain in the Top 40
  (1 to 4).
• Three of the Whistler athletes will finish well enough for a slot – maybe Callum, Pedro and Viktor Mike (5 to 7).
• At least two of the Zürich athletes will finish well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Ronnie Schildknecht and Timo Bracht (8 and 9).
• The last slot should be decided Jens Petersen-Bach and one other Zürich athlete (10).

But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!