Kona 2012 Odds: April Changes

In February, I started a series of posts on the Kona 2012 odds. This is the April update, after IM Melbourne and IM South Africa. You can always see the latest odds by clicking “Kona 2012 Odds” in the main menu.

Men

The current odds are as follows:

  • Craig Alexander: 34%
  • Chris McCormack, Andreas Raelert, Marino Vanhoenacker: 12% each
  • Pete Jacobs: 7%
  • Eneko Llanos, Cameron Brown: 6%
  • Paul Amey: 2%

And a look at the changes over time:

image

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • I’ve added Chris McCormack back into the mix. With WTC “buying” the Cairns race and turning it into an “official” IM race with qualifying points and Chris being committed to race there (as he did last year when it was a Challenge race), his “validation” issue has been resolved and as long as he finishes he gets a spot on the Kona start list. He may still qulify for the Olympics, but even the he might show up in Kona to race. And once he’s in the race, he will have an influence on the dynamics of the race.
  • With Macca back in the race, almost everyone’s odds are going down.
  • Even with Macca in the field, Crowie’s great performance n Melbourne improved his odds to win again in Kona. He will be able to take his time to prepare for Kona and he seems to be on a completely different level of confidence since winning in Las Vegas and Kona.
  • After pushing Crowie to a sub-8 finish and delivering his career best performance, Cam Brown´s odds have grown to much more than a statistical blip.

Women

The current odds are as follows:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 31%
  • Caroline Steffen: 19%
  • Leanda Cave: 14%
  • Rachel Joyce: 14%
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 7%
  • Catriona Morrison: 4%

The changes over the season:

image_thumb[7]

Here’s where the last set of changes are coming from:

  • The odds for Caroline Steffen and Rachel Joyce have improved after their great performances in Melbourne.
  • Rinnie’s odds have decreased after Melbourne, but she is still the clear favorite. However, I’m not worried about her for Kona – her Melbourne performance was better than her race in New Zealand last year.
  • For the rest of the athletes, there were no noticeable changes compared to February.

IM St. George 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:44:37 08:42:09 42
2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:50:29 08:48:00 74
3 Ben Hoffman USA 08:51:33 08:49:03 84
4 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:55:10 08:52:39 97
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 09:01:31 08:58:58 127
6 Ernst Moser AUT 09:08:52 09:06:17 173
7 Matthew Russell USA 09:09:47 09:07:12 175
8 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:12:42 09:10:06 195
9 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:25:15 09:22:36 299
10 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:06 09:29:25 346
11 Billy Edwards USA 09:32:11 09:29:30 350
12 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:34:16 09:31:34 372
13 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:39:05 09:36:22 395
14 Logan Franks USA 09:58:06 09:55:17 524
15 Thomas Gerlach   10:05:25 10:02:34 570
16 Heath Thurston USA 10:08:28 10:05:37 592
17 Dantley Young USA 10:08:44 10:05:52 594
18 Richard Wygand BRA 10:52:21 10:49:17 770
19 Kirk Nelson USA 12:25:14 12:21:44 858
20 Monte Still   n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:39:36 09:36:53 30
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:40:02 09:37:19 31
3 Jessie Donavan USA 09:41:43 09:38:59 36
4 Jessica Smith USA 09:51:54 09:49:07 57
5 Uli Bromme USA 10:05:07 10:02:17 89
6 Jackie Arendt USA 10:07:55 10:05:04 100
7 Erin Spitler   10:25:36 10:22:40 170
8 Trish Deim   n/a unrated n/a
9 Gillian Clayton   n/a unrated n/a
10 Erin Young   n/a unrated n/a

Results for Maik Twelsiek (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:56:10 09:04:54 08:42:09 10
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:03 08:44:36 08:39:18 22
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 08:24:59 08:29:42 08:38:35 2
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:33:46 08:33:57 08:39:51 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:27:02 08:28:03 08:40:47 12
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:48:33 08:52:58 08:42:47 3
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:42:53 08:40:51 08:41:01 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:35:10 08:30:29 08:41:03 12
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:36:37 08:36:01 08:43:09 1
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:34:10 08:36:46 08:44:46 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:48:37 08:46:26 08:46:54 14
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:24:03 08:43:28 08:47:02 11
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 08:52:49 08:51:49 08:48:24 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:17:03 08:37:09 08:46:55 6
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:31:53 08:44:05 08:53:41 9
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:02:19 09:04:03 09:04:03 9

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 08:27:36 08:37:02 08:48:00 1
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:24:34 08:44:04 08:49:02 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:32:37 08:48:46 08:49:30 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:52:04 08:53:08 08:49:34 35
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:37:22 08:55:18 08:49:14 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:48:30 08:53:57 08:48:38 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:54:42 08:49:28 08:48:05 3
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:56:47 08:54:55 08:47:55 5
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:17:39 08:37:40 08:47:12 11
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:37:41 08:43:15 08:48:14 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:58:59 09:06:01 08:48:45 17
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:43:29 08:43:40 08:46:49 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 08:54:54 08:51:41 08:47:12 2
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:20:59 08:41:01 08:46:36 4
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:49:37 08:52:54 08:47:25 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:21:12 08:37:07 08:46:37 8
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 08:38:40 08:40:05 08:48:10 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:24:42 08:45:06 08:49:36 9
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:36:00 08:43:07 08:50:31 4
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 09:12:35 08:59:45 08:52:04 2
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:07:55 09:00:30 08:50:12 9
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:57:09 08:55:03 08:47:01 8
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:37:38 08:39:53 08:43:44 6
IM Canada 2005-08-29 08:47:10 08:45:07 08:45:54 5
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:46:45 08:46:45 08:46:45 5

Results for Ben Hoffman (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:33:29 08:35:24 08:49:03 2
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:41:39 08:41:50 08:52:15 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:03:29 09:04:34 08:55:13 42
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:39:34 08:43:54 08:52:15 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:52:54 08:47:41 08:55:48 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:29:54 09:24:43 09:01:09 55
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:24:13 08:30:48 08:30:48 6

Results for Axel Zeebroek (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:54:06 09:07:29 08:52:39 10
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:58:13 08:59:49 08:48:46 28
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:28:07 08:33:33 08:45:02 6
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:28:52 08:38:50 08:49:59 4
IM UK 2010-08-01 08:49:38 08:55:53 08:56:43 3
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:48:14 08:57:43 08:57:43 13

Results for Kevin Taddonio (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:45:51 08:59:00 08:58:58 22
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:35:30 08:58:56 08:58:56 13

Results for Ernst Moser (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:09:42 09:11:25 09:06:17 4
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:37:10 09:03:37 09:05:09 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:14:35 09:14:47 09:05:34 11
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:53:49 09:01:38 09:02:27 11
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:40:51 08:57:37 09:02:46 11
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:43:20 08:59:27 09:05:44 14
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:47:03 09:03:55 09:10:30 16
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:08:01 09:19:18 09:19:18 19

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:29:19 08:42:03 09:07:12 12
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:43:51 08:45:25 09:12:07 23
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:59:31 09:03:32 09:18:22 7
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:26:26 09:28:33 09:22:42 9
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:08:54 09:20:23 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:21:28 09:27:18 20
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:33:43 09:33:43 13

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:01:18 09:14:51 09:10:06 12
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:41:48 08:54:51 09:09:43 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:49:01 08:50:35 09:11:00 26
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:23:54 09:14:40 09:12:51 7
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:54:20 09:06:20 09:12:40 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:53:57 09:08:04 09:13:19 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:53:07 09:13:44 09:13:55 10
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:04:02 09:16:09 09:13:56 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 08:59:38 09:13:38 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:26:20 09:15:34 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:00:42 09:13:52 8
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:49:42 08:57:28 09:16:12 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:43:51 08:54:34 09:20:02 8
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:54:57 09:12:10 09:26:35 19
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:54:13 09:07:02 09:31:27 12
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:56:20 09:13:29 09:39:49 20
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:00:35 09:58:10 09:48:55 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 09:49:54 09:45:52 31
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:34:59 09:37:16 09:44:16 14
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:19:56 09:32:55 09:48:23 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 10:03:46 10:08:48 10:08:48 24

Results for Matthew Sheeks (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:17:57 09:22:36 09:22:36 8

Results for Brendan Halpin (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:04:36 09:18:14 09:29:25 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:17:13 09:18:58 09:33:40 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:34:19 09:39:41 09:41:51 11
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:36:40 09:41:06 09:44:14 23
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:48:09 09:50:06 09:50:06 20

Results for Billy Edwards (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:37:09 09:38:57 09:29:30 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:13:13 09:18:23 09:27:39 7
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:45:55 09:50:48 09:29:44 18
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:14:42 09:20:25 09:25:19 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:59:30 09:54:03 09:26:35 67
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:12:09 09:11:31 09:19:15 7
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:17:02 09:24:18 09:21:51 27
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:24:34 09:24:12 09:20:54 45
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:18:48 09:20:20 09:19:38 13
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:16:09 09:17:59 09:19:14 10
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:21:48 09:20:48 09:20:48 12

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:53:56 09:07:17 09:31:34 26
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:45:27 09:06:34 09:36:16 14
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:30:44 10:32:42 09:43:18 13
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:08 09:36:41 09:28:49 25
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:25:52 09:28:52 09:26:26 8
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:18:10 09:22:50 09:25:28 9
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:23:27 09:33:34 09:27:07 24
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:17:01 09:20:13 09:20:13 13

Results for Adam O’Meara (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:20:26 09:34:28 09:36:22 20
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:35:55 09:40:12 09:36:55 18
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:58:04 09:10:02 09:35:40 14
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:13:58 09:23:55 09:46:57 19
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:58:20 10:02:56 09:58:18 28
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:38:37 09:46:06 09:54:19 28
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:10:00 10:08:55 10:08:55 23

Results for Logan Franks (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:20:01 10:31:33 09:55:17 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:34:58 09:40:20 09:33:44 12
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:20:27 09:25:08 09:25:08 11

Results for Thomas Gerlach ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:57:00 09:10:25 10:02:34 27
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:53:49 09:56:09 10:20:44 16
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:08:29 10:11:43 10:28:49 12
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:43:20 10:41:05 10:37:05 20
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:30:50 10:31:04 10:34:46 19
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:40:11 10:38:59 10:37:35 23
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:50:49 10:35:42 10:35:42 20

Results for Heath Thurston (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:09:18 10:09:31 10:05:37 16
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:08:42 10:13:23 10:02:58 30
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:57:00 10:04:48 09:55:29 40
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:26:07 09:42:52 09:42:52 37

Results for Dantley Young (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:30:41 10:33:52 10:05:52 22
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:19:31 09:26:46 09:48:17 23
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:08:24 10:12:10 10:12:10 16

Results for Richard Wygand (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:03:04 10:18:10 10:49:17 30
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:37:08 11:01:46 10:59:04 16
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:49:28 10:08:02 10:58:04 31
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:25:25 10:45:08 11:21:34 18
IM Florida 2008-11-01 11:48:16 12:13:07 11:47:19 46
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 11:15:45 11:30:00 11:26:15 33
IM Florida 2006-11-04 11:12:26 11:21:51 11:21:51 42

Results for Kirk Nelson (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 12:41:21 12:58:17 12:21:44 36
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:34:13 10:19:29 10:19:29 19

Results for Monte Still ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mackenzie Madison (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:10:21 09:32:28 09:36:53 2
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:11 09:36:44 09:39:54 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:34:51 09:43:16 09:43:16 3

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:00:14 09:13:44 09:37:19 3
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:50:45 09:52:36 09:41:18 2
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:37:22 09:41:40 09:39:09 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:27:22 09:38:34 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:05:15 09:41:07 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:21:52 09:34:19 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:29:41 09:39:00 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:41:13 09:44:10 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:47:31 09:47:31 7

Results for Jessie Donavan (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:24:52 09:38:59 09:38:59 11

Results for Jessica Smith (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:34:45 09:49:07 09:49:07 12

Results for Uli Bromme (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:19:09 10:21:00 10:02:17 21
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:44:10 09:57:17 09:57:29 11
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:10:48 10:11:01 09:57:33 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:31:22 09:44:05 09:51:49 9
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:46:19 09:54:54 09:56:25 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:47:44 09:58:18 09:58:18 10

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:21:02 10:22:53 10:05:04 22
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:40:28 09:51:16 09:58:39 2
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:56:21 09:58:34 10:02:34 4
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:06:36 10:06:49 10:06:49 2

Results for Erin Spitler ( )

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:55:03 10:09:55 10:22:40 21
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:38:32 10:40:32 10:29:44 8
IM Australia 2011-05-01 10:08:33 10:17:45 10:17:45 5

Results for Trish Deim ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gillian Clayton ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Erin Young ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Australia 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:47:24 08:51:13 91
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:50:30 08:54:20 106
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:57 08:56:48 115
4 Dan Brown PHI 08:54:13 08:58:05 124
5 Leon Griffin AUS 08:58:46 09:02:40 150
6 Chris Dmitrieff AUS 09:13:52 09:17:52 259
7 Scott Defilippis USA 09:19:49 09:23:52 306

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:38:05 09:42:16 42
2 Kat Baker AUS 09:58:22 10:02:42 91
3 Nicole Ward AUS 10:00:34 10:04:55 99
4 Hillary Biscay USA 10:10:14 10:14:39 140

Results for Tim Berkel (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:29:20 08:37:08 08:51:13 3
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:40:46 08:48:36 08:55:45 6
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:33:04 09:49:54 08:57:53 16
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:31:43 08:34:18 08:38:32 3
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:07:06 08:20:53 08:40:25 1
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:44:20 08:47:02 08:53:36 4
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 08:49:07 09:01:49 09:01:49 5

Results for Paul Ambrose (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM St. George 2011-05-07 08:51:41 08:51:52 08:54:20 6
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 08:29:59 08:32:42 08:55:05 1
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:38:24 08:46:12 09:02:31 5
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:24:54 08:33:58 09:09:20 5
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:40:06 08:56:07 09:30:48 11
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:04:18 10:12:11 10:12:11 42

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:57:33 09:06:28 08:56:48 21
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:27:31 08:35:47 08:55:39 3
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:12:55 09:17:02 08:58:06 10
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:47:18 08:49:16 08:55:39 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:54:04 08:56:34 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:12:54 10:16:09 08:56:58 13
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:42:26 08:45:23 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:37:20 08:52:31 08:45:50 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:57:32 08:44:47 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:05:07 08:42:39 11
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:10:57 08:24:50 08:38:38 2
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 08:59:26 08:41:19 3
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:35:43 08:52:06 08:37:18 12
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:28:54 08:34:05 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:03:55 08:10:35 08:35:14 1
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:36:39 08:41:20 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:43:06 08:42:43 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:34:07 08:42:34 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:56:34 08:47:47 36
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:38:10 08:38:10 8

Results for Dan Brown (PHI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:55:28 08:58:05 08:58:05 8

Results for Leon Griffin (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:03:49 09:12:41 09:02:40 12
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 13:30:58 13:39:25 08:38:58 16
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:24:41 08:38:58 08:38:58 6

Results for Chris Dmitrieff (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:17:03 09:25:35 09:17:52 8
IM Australia 2011-05-01 09:39:26 09:48:11 09:15:43 8
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:05:29 09:21:30 09:03:37 11
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:53:06 08:55:48 08:57:42 9
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:28:29 08:42:52 08:58:25 8
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:17:13 09:20:55 09:06:31 12
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:29 09:11:24 08:59:40 50
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:41:40 08:43:49 08:51:18 4
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:00:09 09:00:09 09:00:09 10

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:16:00 09:11:00 09:23:52 7
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:27:13 08:47:36 09:26:27 8
IM France 2011-06-26 09:26:26 09:30:34 09:35:34 13
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 09:58:18 09:36:55 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:43:35 09:00:05 09:29:29 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:53:07 09:47:19 09:42:09 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:31:53 09:49:22 09:39:06 17
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:25:00 09:28:15 09:28:15 16

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:28:07 09:37:22 09:42:16 2
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:30:41 09:39:26 09:45:12 2
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:50:04 09:51:23 09:51:23 7
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 15:16:08 14:51:39 14:51:39 16

Results for Kat Baker (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:05:19 10:09:58 10:02:42 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:37:24 09:53:44 09:53:44 3

Results for Nicole Ward (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 10:12:39 10:07:08 10:04:55 6
IM Australia 2011-05-01 09:49:23 09:58:17 10:04:22 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:56:48 10:02:57 10:05:56 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:51:05 09:57:50 10:06:42 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:20:46 10:15:07 10:09:23 32
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:56:04 10:04:58 10:07:16 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:43:12 09:59:42 10:08:19 5
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 09:44:35 10:03:09 10:14:37 9
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:24:18 10:28:26 10:28:26 12

Results for Hillary Biscay (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:39:41 09:49:08 10:14:39 5
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:09:32 10:20:52 10:16:17 8
IM Korea 2011-07-03 10:12:20 10:20:03 10:16:00 3
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:33:14 09:55:24 10:15:44 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:47:51 10:49:09 10:17:05 39
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:29:06 10:31:35 10:15:12 7
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:52:37 10:56:05 10:14:12 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:39:44 10:46:20 10:11:31 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:44:38 10:03:03 10:09:15 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:41:44 10:39:15 10:09:40 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:02:58 10:00:52 10:04:47 3
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:47:50 10:47:05 10:05:03 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:28:45 10:25:21 10:02:14 5
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 10:16:39 10:23:17 10:00:39 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:10 10:32:32 09:59:11 35
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:47:25 09:47:38 09:57:02 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 09:59:33 09:55:57 09:57:40 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:58:45 09:57:26 09:57:47 3
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:24:19 09:46:53 09:57:48 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:56:10 10:06:36 09:58:41 1
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:53:21 09:57:02 09:58:01 8
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 10:11:17 10:15:04 09:58:06 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:46 09:56:23 09:56:36 20
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:01:30 10:00:22 09:56:37 2
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:49:50 09:56:09 09:56:15 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:39:23 09:51:18 09:56:16 6
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:44:14 09:56:33 09:56:49 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 11:33:07 11:36:58 10:07:26 10
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:34:53 09:39:20 09:56:51 4
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:58:35 10:01:02 09:59:07 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:40:39 09:48:47 09:58:50 3
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:07:01 09:52:55 10:00:24 2
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:30:37 09:42:47 10:01:42 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:59:46 10:00:14 10:05:29 5
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:43:36 09:44:41 10:06:47 3
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:34:19 09:41:10 10:13:25 3
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:36:56 10:34:27 10:25:50 11
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:31:33 10:26:19 10:21:13 10
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:15:40 10:15:40 10:15:40 7

IM South Africa 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s IM South Africa was very slow. The adjustment was calculated at –5:49, so it was about 18 minutes slower than the 2011 race. I’m not sure what factors contributed to this, I have not heard horror stories of strong winds or too long swim courses, but the times were pretty slow even starting with the swim. (Please note that the adjustment is not influenced by the strength of the field, only by comparing expected and actual finishing times by each athlete.)

Male Results

Some of the pre race favorites didn’t start (Cunama) or made clear that they were just racing for fun (Tissink). The remaining favorite, Andi Böcherer, led after the bike, but dropped out at the 18k mark of the run, and Clemente Alonso won his first Ironman:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:34:45 08:51:24
2 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:41:48 08:48:58
3 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:46:04 08:51:31
4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:57:21 08:51:43
5 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:03:03 09:09:30
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:09:57 09:02:56
7 Craig Twigg GBR 09:10:48 09:58:24
8 Sylvain Rota FRA 09:11:24 n/a
9 Kent Horner ZAF 09:14:39 09:24:02
10 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 09:20:56 08:49:15
11 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:25:43 09:13:07
12 Michael Wetzel GER 09:26:33 09:21:59
13 Raynard Tissink ZAF 09:31:42 08:39:14
14 Ivan Albano BRA 09:40:30 09:26:11
15 Georg Swoboda AUT 09:42:51 08:56:35

As usual, a TOP 3 finish required to race faster than your predicted time and deliver a good performance – not much of a chance anymore to just show up, go through the motions and finish on the podium.

Female Results

On the women’s side, Natascha Badmann had a bad swim but a great bike and run and managed to overtake her countrywomen Simone Braendli for her fourth win in South Africa:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:47:10 09:39:30
2 Simone Braendli SWI 09:52:26 10:19:01
3 Diana Riesler GER 10:01:14 09:46:31
4 Dianne Mcewan ZAF 10:07:55 n/a
5 Susan Dietrich GER 10:08:02 09:47:28
6 Virginia Berasategui ESP 10:13:00 09:44:23
7 Emi Sakai JPN 10:28:03 n/a
8 Anne Basso FRA 10:33:12 10:32:12
9 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:34:24 n/a
10 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:41:13 10:17:28
11 Claire Horner ZAF 10:50:53 10:46:25
12 Kathrin Walther GER 11:30:13 n/a
13 Caroline Koll ZAF 11:56:21 10:52:04

Congratulations to Natscha – even with her having the best pre-race rating, I didn’t think she had another IM win in her. By winning, she became the oldest female winner of an Ironman at 45 years, 4 months and 16 days. Previously, Fernanda Keller had that record with her win in IM Brazil 2008 at the age of 44 years, 7 months and 21 days. I wish I was that fast!

IM South Africa 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

With a course rating of 7:03, South Africa is one of the medium quick courses, comparable to IM France or IM Arizona. However, the adjustment has seen quite a lot of movement, so conditions on race day are going to have an influence on how quick the race is going to be. Last years winners were Raynard Tissink in 8:05:36 (in front of Andi Böcherer and James Cunnama) and Chrissie Wellington in a super-quick 8:33:56 (followed by Rachel Joyce and Diana Riesler).

Male Participants

The top three from last year are back:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Raynard Tissink ZAF 08:27:00 08:33:42 20
2 Andi Boecherer GER 08:34:49 08:41:38 37
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:36:30 08:43:20 45
4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:47 08:43:37 46
5 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:38:53 08:45:45 58
6 Mike Aigroz SWI 08:39:00 08:45:52 59
7 Markus Fachbach GER 08:39:11 08:46:03 61
8 James Cunnama ZAF 08:40:30 08:47:23 71
9 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:43:56 08:50:52 91
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:50:08 08:57:09 119
11 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:51:38 08:58:40 127
12 Jonathan Hotchkiss GBR 08:52:57 09:00:00 135
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:56:33 09:03:39 156
14 Joseph Spindler GER 08:57:52 09:04:59 161
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:00:05 09:07:14 178
16 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:50 09:11:02 205
17 Michael Wetzel GER 09:08:45 09:16:00 234
18 Kent Horner ZAF 09:10:45 09:18:02 260
19 Ivan Albano BRA 09:12:50 09:20:09 282
20 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:18 09:52:02 507
21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 10:17:50 10:26:00 708

These three athletes also top the odds:

  • Raynard Tissink: 39%
  • Andi Boecherer: 35%
  • James Cunnama: 11%
  • Mike Aigroz: 8%

Statistically, in addition to Tissink, Böcherer and Cunname only last year’s Hawaii TOP 10 athlete Mike Aigroz has a realistic chance of winning – all the other well rated athletes do not have enough results under their belt. However, any of these athlete may be able to surprise if they manage to race as well as they did last time – the ratings are close enough to promise an exciting race!

Update: Apparently, Ray Tissink has entered the race, but is not really aiming for a top finish. (He tweeted “let’s make it 100% clear, I’m not racing [for a fast time]. Going to have fun and experience what everybody else in the event does.”) Apparently, he is taking some time off Ironman, but is “not retired yet. Taking some time to get my head straight after a disappointing year. Will be back at IMSA next year.”

Update: Not only is Raynard Tissink out of contention, but James Cunnama has withdrawn and will not start. With these two changes, the odds change to

  • Andi Böcherer 51%
  • Markus Fachbach 14%
  • Mike Aigroz 14% 
  • Guilherme Manocchio 10%

Female Participants

While the men’s race looks quite close, the field on the women’s side is not as deep:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:25:51 09:33:20 22
2 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:30:37 09:38:10 35
3 Diana Riesler GER 09:32:42 09:40:16 40
4 Susan Dietrich GER 09:33:38 09:41:13 42
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:56 10:10:54 126
6 Anne Basso FRA 10:17:18 10:25:28 176
7 Claire Horner ZAF 10:31:11 10:39:32 206
8 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:36:43 10:45:08 216
9 Jodie Swallow GBR n/a unrated n/a

Natascha Badmann still has the best rating of the field, but if she won it would be quite a surprise. Here’s a look at the odds for the race:

  • Virginia Berasategui: 41%
  • Natascha Badmann: 27%
  • Diana Riesler: 22%
  • Susan Dietrich: 6.%
  • Jacqui Gordon: 4%

Jodie Swallow is still on the start list, but she’s got a stress fracture in her foot and will not be able to start. (On her blog, she said that she has “to postpone Ironman South Africa victory until next year”.) My best wishes for a quick recovery!

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