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Ironman Sweden 2015 (Aug 15th) – Predictions

IMSweden

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:04:01 Asa Lundstroem (SWE) 09:13:27
2013 Pedro Gomes (POR) 08:19:30 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 08:54:01
2014 Horst Reichel (GER) 08:13:01 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:56:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Horst Reichel GER 00:49:24 04:29:38 02:51:09 08:13:01
2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:49:38 04:42:22 02:44:18 08:19:17
3 Tom Lowe GBR 00:57:28 04:29:58 02:48:24 08:19:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:49:39 04:57:21 03:05:26 08:56:50
2 Erika Csomor HUN 01:00:41 05:16:56 03:07:40 09:30:04
3 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:09:18 05:08:13 03:10:21 09:31:38

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:04:01 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:48:15 Andi Boecherer 2012-08-18
Bike overall 04:24:20 Karl-Johan Danielsson 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:44:18 Viktor Zyemtsev 2014-08-16
Total female 08:54:01 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Swim female 00:48:30 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Bike female 04:48:42 Helene Malmkvist 2012-08-18
Run female 03:05:26 Leanda Cave 2014-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Sweden is 19:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 31:13 00:09 23:11 05:59 25 31:13 00:09 23:11 05:59
2013 13:40 -00:11 08:46 07:37 24 22:27 -00:01 15:59 06:48
2014 14:38 -00:47 06:32 07:06 18 19:51 -00:16 12:50 06:54

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Sweden is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:16:34 08:40:33 00:48:22 04:28:21 02:54:51 52
2 19 Dougal Allan NZL 08:18:53 08:53:19 01:03:28 04:19:07 02:51:18 (100)
3 2 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:25:07 08:52:43 00:50:10 04:34:12 02:55:45 99
4 3 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:26:06 08:51:29 00:55:09 04:29:50 02:56:07 96
5 4 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:34:29 09:10:33 00:54:30 04:39:33 02:55:26 175
6 6 David Naesvik SWE 08:37:00 09:07:25 00:54:20 04:33:34 03:04:06 156
7 8 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:44:00 09:20:24 00:49:01 04:34:33 03:15:25 220
8 7 Cedric Lassonde FRA 08:44:01 09:15:37 00:54:56 04:37:40 03:06:25 (199)
9 20 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:45:40 09:08:54 00:56:04 04:37:27 03:07:09 168
10 11 Johan Borg AUS 08:57:14 09:23:43 00:56:36 04:45:45 03:09:53 236
11 21 Luke Dragstra CAN 09:08:47 09:21:31 00:53:12 04:48:04 03:22:31 228
12 9 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:11:29 09:43:40 00:59:58 04:50:15 03:16:16 314
13 10 Lukas Polan CZE 09:28:58 10:07:42 01:03:46 04:54:57 03:25:15 401
14 16 Nis Lind DEN 09:33:49 10:05:45 01:01:16 04:57:20 03:30:12 394
15 14 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:08:45 10:44:41 01:01:20 05:42:20 03:20:06 (478)
16 13 Mathias Nagel GER 14:36:20 15:28:03 01:55:58 06:37:32 05:57:50 (495)
17 12 Frederik Flagstad GRL 15:05:43 15:59:10 01:19:07 07:54:38 05:46:58 (495)
  5 Allan Steen Olesen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  18 Andreas Linden SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 55 Erika Csomor HUN 09:14:20 09:31:59 00:59:09 05:01:21 03:08:51 29
2 52 Astrid Stienen GER 09:22:26 09:44:36 00:59:15 05:01:13 03:16:58 53
3 54 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:27:02 10:07:08 01:09:05 05:01:20 03:11:37 108
4 57 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:28:52 09:54:16 01:03:19 04:59:36 03:20:57 76
5 53 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 09:32:08 10:01:39 00:53:06 05:03:21 03:30:41 (93)
6 58 Charisa Wernick USA 09:36:46 10:03:51 00:59:47 05:18:04 03:13:55 99
7 56 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:42:17 10:10:33 00:59:39 05:15:32 03:22:06 (115)
8 59 Emma Graaf SWE 09:47:58 10:19:00 00:59:44 05:11:45 03:31:28 133

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Patrik Nilsson has declined his Kona slot in order to focus on a winning his home race – he is the favorite to win. But there are a few athletes that will make things hard for Patrik, among them Dougal Allen (3rd and 2nd at Challenge Wanaka) and Guilherme Manocchio and Domenico Passuello who are looking for KPR points to qualify in August.

  • Patrik Nilsson: 37% (2-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 22% (4-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 18% (4-1)
  • Domenico Passuello: 14% (6-1)
  • Mauro Baertsch: 4% (24-1)
  • David Naesvik: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s second place Erika Csomor will try to improve last year’s result. Astrid Stienen is looking for some more Kona points and would love to contend at least for the podium. 

  • Erika Csomor: 57% (1-1)
  • Astrid Stienen: 19% (4-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 19% (4-1)
  • Charisa Wernick: 2% (47-1)
  • Evi Neuscheler: 2% (61-1)

Ironman Netherlands 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of -7:45, Maastricht seems to be a pretty slow course: After a “normal” swim, the bike was slow and also seemed to take a lot out of athlete’s legs for the run.

Male Race Results

Bas Diederen had a solid day, the best bike and run allowed him to win the race by eight minutes over countryman Mark Oude Bennink. Third place went to Alberto Casadei who scored 1280 more Kona points, but his new score of 3.065 is probably not enough for an August slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Bas Diederen NED 00:46:22 04:43:33 02:51:59 08:27:18 -04:08 US$ 5000
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:46:19 04:48:30 02:54:58 08:35:15 -35:59 US$ 2750
3 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:46:20 04:51:50 02:54:34 08:38:04 -21:59 US$ 1750
4 Tim Brydenbach BEL 00:46:24 04:51:46 02:57:22 08:40:38 n/a US$ 1250
5 Matic Modic SLO 00:53:12 04:47:19 02:57:59 08:44:11 -32:00 US$ 1000
6 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:51:45 04:52:58 03:10:46 09:01:06 20:02 US$ 750
7 Xavier Torrades ESP 00:46:52 05:03:19 03:06:46 09:02:01 n/a  
8 Remy Vasseur NED 00:53:15 05:01:01 03:02:32 09:02:18 -21:50  
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:58:28 04:54:46 03:02:08 09:04:03 -06:23  
10 Hannes Cool BEL 00:51:43 04:58:06 03:08:50 09:04:44 -16:24  
11 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:51:47 05:02:40 03:14:03 09:14:11 06:47  
12 Rinus Holvoet BEL 00:53:07 04:59:55 03:16:05 09:17:19 -10:05  
13 Urs Mueller SWI 00:55:27 05:01:48 03:25:52 09:28:51 -02:39  
14 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 00:56:37 05:09:07 03:21:23 09:33:35 -00:23  
15 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 00:53:31 05:13:52 03:33:30 09:48:02 n/a  
16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 01:03:31 05:27:33 03:42:50 10:22:14 09:52  
17 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:11:47 06:29:56 04:46:52 12:41:33 42:57  
18 Mathias Nagel GER 01:27:29 06:10:44 05:48:26 13:36:22 -1:36:07  
19 Wouter Duinisveld NED 01:15:35 06:37:45 05:39:08 13:50:21 n/a  
  Martijn Dekker NED 00:46:17 04:54:59   DNF  
  Bart Candel NED 00:55:29 04:59:51   DNF  
  Frederic Schaffner FRA 00:55:05 05:00:24   DNF  
  Joerie Vansteelant BEL 00:59:01 05:00:17   DNF  
  Thomas Kaiser GER 00:55:57 05:21:02   DNF  
  Cedric Largajolli FRA 00:58:57 05:18:20   DNF  
  Andreas Thissen GER 01:26:01     DNF  

Female Race Results

Yvonne Van Vlerken won her “home race”, but after a good swim she was a bit slower than normal – probably a sign of how tired she was after winning Challenge Roth four weeks ago. Second and third place went to two more Dutch girls, Sarissa De Vries and Carla Van Rooijen. 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:56:26 05:16:10 03:21:17 09:39:24 17:59 US$ 5000
2 Sarissa De Vries NED 00:52:24 05:25:23 03:34:10 09:58:44 n/a US$ 2750
3 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:09:18 05:32:16 03:16:20 10:04:38 -29:22 US$ 1750
4 Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:56:21 05:52:11 03:25:34 10:19:57 21:23 US$ 1250
5 Irene Kinnegim NED 01:09:28 05:49:40 03:26:29 10:34:46 17:58 US$ 1000
6 Maria Lemeseva RUS 01:08:21 05:42:31 03:40:37 10:40:04 21:54 US$ 750

New Top 10 Ratings

I’ve updated my page on the Top 10 Ratings in long distance triathlon.

TOP Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

After his stellar are at IM Germany, Jan Frodeno has taken over the top spot in front of Sebastian Kienle. With Nils Frommhold there are now three Germans at the front of my ratings:

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:08:18 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:08:50 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 10
3 Nils Frommhold GER 08:15:11 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 6
4 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:15:48 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 16
5 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:19:10 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 19
6 Andreas Raelert GER 08:20:03 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 14
7 Timo Bracht GER 08:22:35 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 24
8 Craig Alexander AUS 08:23:13 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 12
9 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:23:47 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 22
10 Bas Diederen NED 08:24:09 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 8

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Mirinda Carfrae continues to lead the female ratings, but Daniela Ryf is slowly getting closer.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:57:08 IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22 12
2 Daniela Ryf SUI 09:03:14 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 4
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:07:58 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 16
4 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:11:03 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 20
5 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:13:06 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 17
6 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:14:13 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7
7 Julia Gajer GER 09:15:15 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 9
8 Eva Wutti AUT 09:16:23 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 5
9 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:17:15 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 14
10 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:17:16 IM Cairns on 2015-06-14 7

TOP Swim-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:11 IM Cairns on 2015-06-14 11
2 Andy Potts USA 00:46:00 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 12
3 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:22 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
4 Manuel Kueng SUI 00:46:36 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 3
5 Marko Albert EST 00:46:49 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 12
6 Filip Ospaly CZE 00:47:02 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 3
7 Paul Matthews AUS 00:47:04 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 6
8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:10 IM Brasil on 2015-05-31 10
9 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:47:13 IM UK on 2015-07-19 5
10 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:47:18 IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30 11

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:48:23 IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30 3
2 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:48:35 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7
3 Haley Chura USA 00:49:03 IM Brasil on 2015-05-31 8
4 Amanda Stevens USA 00:49:49 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 13
5 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:07 IM New Zealand on 2015-03-07 19
6 Leanda Cave GBR 00:50:40 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 16
7 Lucie Reed CZE 00:50:45 IM Brasil on 2015-05-31 18
8 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:50:54 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 14
9 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:50:55 IM Cairns on 2015-06-14 7
10 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:51:00 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 4

TOP Bike-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

With his fast bike ride at Challenge Roth, Andrew Starykowicz has reclaimed his top spot in the bike ratings:

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 04:23:43 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 5
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:26:08 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 10
3 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:28:16 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 19
4 Nils Frommhold GER 04:28:39 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 6
5 Michael Weiss AUT 04:29:29 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 11
6 Jan Frodeno GER 04:31:34 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
7 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 04:31:54 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 16
8 Maik Twelsiek GER 04:32:39 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 26
9 Andi Boecherer GER 04:33:13 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 11
10 Eneko Llanos ESP 04:34:34 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 22

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

Angela Naeth is slowly inching towards a 5 hour rating, but she is clearly second after Daniela Ryf continues to improve her bike rating:

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 04:56:48 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 4
2 Angela Naeth CAN 05:00:30 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 4
3 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 05:01:06 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 17
4 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 05:01:20 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 4
5 Caroline Steffen SUI 05:01:23 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 20
6 Eva Wutti AUT 05:01:30 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 5
7 Anja Beranek GER 05:03:05 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 5
8 Natascha Badmann SUI 05:03:42 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 12
9 Diana Riesler GER 05:03:52 IM Lanzarote on 2015-05-23 14
10 Jodie Swallow GBR 05:04:21 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7

TOP Run-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 02:47:19 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
2 Mads Vittrup DEN 02:47:55 IM Copenhagen on 2014-08-24 5
3 Matt Hanson USA 02:48:45 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 6
4 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 02:49:30 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 3
5 Bart Aernouts BEL 02:49:59 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7
6 Ivan Rana ESP 02:50:30 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 8
7 Jeff Symonds CAN 02:51:06 IM Canada on 2015-07-26 5
8 Gerrit Schellens BEL 02:51:24 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 10
9 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 02:52:08 IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30 11
10 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 02:52:25 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 10

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 02:58:47 IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22 12
2 Kelly Williamson USA 03:04:20 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 11
3 Kristin Moeller GER 03:04:42 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 15
4 Caitlin Snow USA 03:06:06 IM Canada on 2015-07-26 20
5 Julia Gajer GER 03:07:05 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 9
6 Beth Gerdes USA 03:07:16 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 10
7 Linsey Corbin USA 03:07:40 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 18
8 Eva Wutti AUT 03:08:17 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 5
9 Lucy Gossage GBR 03:08:17 IM UK on 2015-07-19 9
10 Elizabeth Lyles USA 03:08:39 IM Canada on 2015-07-26 9

Ironman Netherlands 2015 (Aug 2nd) – Predictions

IMNetherlands

Update (July 29th): Corinne Abraham announced she won’t be racing in Maastricht. (She already slipped into the first round of qualifiers.)

This is the first race on this course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Overall
1 1 Bas Diederen NED 08:24:09 00:47:37 04:37:33 02:55:23 10
2 2 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:33:18 00:50:48 04:40:56 02:57:29 31
3 32 Per Bittner GER 08:41:33 00:49:40 04:44:43 03:04:24 54
4 24 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:44:22 00:48:12 04:41:01 03:10:27 66
5 13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:59:26 00:48:29 04:55:55 03:12:00 124
6 25 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:02:37 01:00:15 04:50:44 03:06:14 138
7 23 Alberto Casadei ITA 09:03:18 00:48:02 04:58:28 03:04:33 142
8 17 Mark Oude Bennink NED 09:09:16 00:48:37 04:53:39 03:17:21 169
9 28 Bart Candel NED 09:13:55 00:56:01 04:57:44 03:00:05 (190)
10 26 Matic Modic SLO 09:14:08 00:55:15 04:56:51 03:10:33 192
11 8 Hannes Cool BEL 09:18:50 00:51:15 04:57:36 03:21:04 211
12 5 Martijn Dekker NED 09:20:20 00:47:40 04:44:54 03:25:50 (218)
13 10 Rinus Holvoet BEL 09:25:00 00:53:44 05:00:26 03:19:29 243
14 22 Remy Vasseur NED 09:27:32 00:54:14 05:05:49 03:16:51 (248)
15 27 Joerie Vansteelant BEL 09:28:00 00:58:55 04:45:05 03:24:51 (249)
16 21 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:31:24 00:56:47 05:01:11 03:21:52 263
17 29 Stefan Eichheimer GER 09:39:04 00:57:36 04:56:28 03:18:39 (299)
18 33 Urs Mueller SWI 09:40:24 00:56:45 05:03:55 03:20:35 (304)
19 30 Lukas Polan CZE 10:07:42 01:02:37 05:13:35 03:39:17 401
20 4 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 10:15:34 01:01:08 05:23:41 03:39:46 424
21 34 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:54:44 01:11:32 06:03:13 04:22:23 492
22 16 Mathias Nagel GER 15:28:03 01:54:35 06:52:42 06:08:43 (495)
3 Wouter Duinisveld NED unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
6 Tim Brydenbach BEL unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
7 Emanuele Ciotti ITA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Thomas Kaiser GER unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Roman Krivosheev RUS unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Frederic Schaffner FRA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Andreas Thissen GER unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Xavier Torrades ESP unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Cedric Largajolli FRA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Overall
1 51 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:13:06 00:58:09 05:01:06 03:10:34 5
2 59 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:23:37 00:59:58 05:11:07 03:09:44 16
3 55 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:55:34 unrated unrated unrated 80
4 54 Irene Kinnegim NED 10:07:41 01:07:40 05:20:46 03:31:44 (112)
5 57 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:15:03 01:08:47 05:32:48 03:23:50 123
6 58 Anne Jensen DNK 10:28:48 01:09:45 05:24:33 03:45:14 159
7 56 Carla Van Rooijen NED 10:31:35 01:14:39 05:28:30 03:36:48 (162)
53 Sarissa De Vries NED unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Bas and Cyril lead the odds for the men, they are already qualified for Kona and may not race at their full potential. Per Bittner (3.030 points), Fraser Cartmell (3.545) and Alberto Casadei (1.791) look for more KPR points to secure an August slot.

  • Bas Diederen: 49% (1-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 20% (4-1)
  • Per Bittner: 14% (6-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 11% (8-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 4% (23-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is the clear favorite on the women’s side. If there is a threat to her it’s going to come from Corinne Abraham who has had a few DNSs since her 5th place in Texas. Yvonne and Corinne are both already qualified for Kona, there is no one else in the field that has a significant number of points.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 60% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 32% (2-1)
  • Carolin Lehrieder: 3% (28-1)
  • Irene Kinnegim: 3% (32-1)

Ironman Whistler 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

By all accounts, the weather in Whistler was miserable this year: Rain and low temperatures created tough conditions, and almost all athletes were cold, some even to the point of hypothermia:

LukeBellTweet

Some of the athletes that were already safe for Kona (Jeff Symonds, Liz Lyles) pulled the plug early in the race, some looking for points had to drop out on the bike while others fought all day for their finish.

After a slow bike leg (adjustment -14:46) no one was able to run fast (only two sub-3h runs for the men and 3:16 was the fastest female marathon), leading to an overall adjustment -15:45. This was even slower than the “hot race” in Coeur d’Alene (adjustment of -8:24) where the heat impacted the athletes mainly on the run.

Male Race Results

After catching up to the slightly faster swimmers, Kyle Buckingham was leading the race for most of the day. But Viktor Zyemtsev had the best run of the day, catching Kyle around the 30k mark and eventually pulling away, winning by less than a minute. Justin Daerr used the second best run of the day to finish in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:53:03 04:58:32 02:54:28 08:49:46 -01:09 US$ 20000
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:40 04:56:18 03:01:24 08:50:30 02:16 US$ 10000
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:02 04:58:35 02:59:13 08:54:45 -04:15 US$ 6500
4 Derek Garcia USA 00:53:30 04:57:54 03:08:05 09:02:55 -13:55 US$ 4000
5 Chris McDonald AUS 00:53:04 04:57:37 03:14:20 09:08:45 08:08 US$ 3000
6 Nathan Killam CAN 00:54:10 05:14:14 03:02:06 09:14:34 -20:37 US$ 2000
7 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:14 05:10:54 03:06:47 09:22:39 16:05 US$ 1500
8 Swen Sundberg GER 00:53:07 05:07:04 03:20:49 09:25:10 20:01 US$ 1250
9 Travis Hawkins USA 01:02:05 05:26:03 03:18:48 09:52:59 n/a US$ 1000
10 Gray Skinner USA 01:01:44 05:10:47 03:36:05 09:53:17 n/a US$ 750
11 Elmar Heger GER 00:56:54 05:16:02 03:40:02 09:59:10 -41:25  
12 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:03:15 05:36:28 10:10:41 10:10:41 36:59  
  Barrett Brandon USA 00:48:22     DNF  
  Luke Bell AUS 00:48:27     DNF  
  Paul Ambrose GBR 00:51:48     DNF  
  Jeff Symonds CAN 00:51:53     DNF  
  Chad Holderbaum USA 00:53:10     DNF  
  Dougal Allan NZL 00:59:12     DNF  
  Jason Watson USA 01:01:05     DNF  

Both Viktor and Kyle scored enough KPR points to move into the Top 40 July spots. Barrett Brandon, Luke Bell and Paul Ambrose DNF’d on the bike and couldn’t improve their score. Luke ends up in #41 in the rankings and is either the first not to qualify or the first one receiving a roll-down slot.

Female Race Results

Melanie McQuaid picked tough conditions for her IM debut race. She stormed to the front early in the bike, and built a five-minute lead into T2 that was stable for most of the run. But after 30k Danielle Mack was quickly coming closer, took the lead around 40k and won by two minutes. Melanie finished second, while Jen Annett had the best run of the day to put herself into third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Danielle Mack USA 01:01:49 05:23:53 03:16:09 09:46:19 -15:25 US$ 20000
2 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:57:47 05:22:43 03:23:44 09:48:23 n/a US$ 10000
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:01 05:32:14 03:16:03 09:55:06 -43:43 US$ 6500
4 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:58:17 05:33:05 03:23:54 09:59:34 -03:56 US$ 4000
5 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:01:09 05:25:02 03:30:11 10:00:18 -04:06 US$ 3000
6 Jessie Donavan USA 01:05:09 05:25:55 03:29:55 10:04:40 08:06 US$ 2000
7 Cheryl Orlovsky CAN 01:06:42 05:38:35 03:16:57 10:07:07 n/a US$ 1500
8 Kelly Fillnow USA 01:05:47 05:44:07 03:16:08 10:11:17 -17:06 US$ 1250
9 Laurel Wassner USA 00:54:12 05:49:16 03:23:36 10:12:52 16:46 US$ 1000
10 Caitlin Snow USA 00:57:59 05:54:24 03:20:20 10:17:42 30:39 US$ 750
11 Tracy Douglas AUS 01:06:51 05:45:21 03:34:29 10:32:01 09:28  
  Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:54:09     DNF  
  Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:55     DNF  
  Richele Frank CAN 01:11:58     DNF  

Both Laurel Wassner and Cait Snow had a chance for a July slot. They struggled in the cold conditions, but still finished – even if their 9th and 10th place finishes were short of the podium finished they would have needed.

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