IM Lake Placid 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Lake Placid is one of the slower courses with a course rating of –1:35. This year had relatively good conditions (relatively cool and low winds) with an adjustment of 0:22.

Male Results

The good conditions helped TJ Tollakson win his first IM in almost course record times:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 TJ Tollakson USA 08:25:15 08:54:28
2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:33:29 08:53:05
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:18 08:50:07
4 Eduardo Sturla ARG 09:04:16 08:39:21
5 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:07:05 n/a
6 Ian Mikelson USA 09:12:42 09:11:16
7 Mike Neill CAN 09:13:03 08:57:05
8 Tim Snow USA 09:16:01 09:29:20
9 Matthew Russell USA 09:26:26 09:21:39
10 John Hirsch USA 09:45:50 09:44:56
11 Tyler Lord CAN 10:09:48 10:38:32
12 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:29:11 10:25:32
13 Ryan Kelly USA 10:30:39 n/a
14 Holden Cameau USA 10:33:27 n/a
15 Ryan Cain CAN 10:50:16 n/a

Ben Hoffman improved on his last year’s result and held on for second, while Jason Shortis had the fastest marathon to capture the third spot.

Female Results

Heather Wurtele won her second IM this year, and leading from start to finish she actually managed to set a new course record:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:19:03 09:34:26
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:34:41 09:39:44
3 Tyler Stewart USA 09:38:09 09:39:50
4 Jackie Arendt USA 09:56:21 10:08:16
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:07:22 10:10:36
6 Suzanne Zelazo CAN 10:21:08 11:18:11
7 Amber Ferreira USA 10:30:39 11:37:57
8 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:46:46 10:51:00
9 Marie Danais CAN 10:48:26 10:24:03

Heather Wurtele is steadily improving, she is now rated as #12 and it’ll be interesting to see how she is going to do in Hawaii (if she is going to race there).

IM Germany 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions on race day were pretty bad. A lot of athletes struggled with the rainy, wet conditions. Still, some of the results were pretty good, and I guess people don’t really blow up in colder conditions. The adjustment of 12:58 was pretty much in line with the course rating.

Male Results

Faris Al-Sultan ran away this year and further solidified his spot in the TOP 10 ratings:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:13:50 08:15:50
2 Jan Raphael GER 08:19:31 08:27:28
3 Michael Goehner GER 08:20:26 08:22:21
4 George Potrebitsch GER 08:22:29 n/a
5 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:26:03 08:36:00
6 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:26:51 08:37:33
7 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:47 08:19:31
8 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:32:26 08:50:11
9 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:32:59 08:22:53
10 Teemu Lemmettyla FIN 08:36:36 09:20:28
11 Simon Billeau FRA 08:43:58 08:49:59
12 Uwe Widmann GER 08:46:33 08:29:53
13 Dirk Wijnalda NLD 08:49:15 09:08:40
14 Per Bittner GER 08:53:44 n/a
15 Mike Schifferle SWI 08:54:20 09:01:34
16 Sergio Marques PRT 08:57:53 08:51:49
17 Michael Wetzel GER 08:58:40 n/a
18 Frank Vytrisal GER 09:01:04 08:42:43
19 Andres Castillo latorre COL 09:05:06 09:12:21
20 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:07:09 n/a
21 Erich Felbabel FRA 09:19:08 09:33:29
22 Marc-Andre Hages GER 09:22:20 n/a
23 Rene Goehler DEU 09:30:26 08:54:03
24 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:34:50 09:38:41
25 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 09:49:31 10:15:53
26 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 10:07:34 09:49:57
27 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:23:10 11:57:49

The German podium made the locals happy. Cam Brown and Patrick Vernay couldn’t quite live up to their ratings – at least for Cam I hope that he is really preparing for IM Hawaii this year.

Female Results

On the female side, Caroline Steffen also seemed to run away with race, but she really struggled on the run – so the top 4 women were each just a minute apart:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:12:13 09:22:54
2 Lucie Zelenkova ZAF 09:13:46 09:26:51
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:14:14 09:18:27
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken AUT 09:15:37 09:06:59
5 Samantha Warriner NZL 09:18:04 09:18:33
6 Meike Krebs GER 09:22:43 09:41:49
7 Silvia Felt GER 09:26:21 09:24:29
8 Susan Dietrich GER 09:28:08 09:38:23
9 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:32:51 09:25:41
10 Virginia Berasategui ESP 09:37:00 09:27:49
11 Uli Bromme USA 09:44:10 09:45:27
12 Fernanda Keller BRA 11:07:02 10:08:14
13 Simone Benz SWI 11:08:53 09:52:27
14 Saki Kubota JAP 11:17:03 n/a

This resulted in a few shifts in the TOP 10: Yvonne lost a place (but is still #5), Sonja Tajsich is now #8, Sam Warriner is #11, Caroline Steffen is #18 and Lucie Zelenkova is #20. All this just goes to show what a big race IM Germany was on the women’s race!

IM UK 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

The UK race has seen some changes in recent years, both in the venue and also in the layout of the course. So I’ve seen wild swings in the adjustments, they average out at the current course rating of 0:04.

Last year’s race was won by Fraser Cartmell in 8:40 and Yvette Grice in 10:01. The Baylisses (Stephen and Bella) scored two second places, each back by just a few minutes.

Male Participants

Stephen Bayliss is back his year and I see him as the favorite for the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:42:14 08:49:38 70
2 Nick Saunders GBR 08:49:57 08:57:28 107
3 Philip Graves GBR 08:51:29 08:59:01 112
4 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:01:02 09:08:42 158
5 Gregorio Morales ESP 09:01:42 09:09:23 163
6 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:10:11 09:17:59 226
7 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:16:51 09:24:44 278
8 Chris Brands NLD 09:17:45 09:25:39 287
9 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:35:02 09:43:11 397

The field is not too big, and it looks that the relevance for the race is limited to British athletes.

Female Participants

Yvette Grice is back to defend her title, but Tine Deckers appears to be the clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tine Deckers BEL 09:32:03 09:40:09 29
2 Yvette Grice GBR 10:17:51 10:26:36 164
3 Monika Stadlmann AUT 10:18:35 10:27:21 170
4 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:24:38 10:33:29 183
5 Conny Dauben GER 10:42:50 10:51:57 219

Bella Bayliss is not back (I think she is pregnant), and it’ll be tricky for a British athlete to win the home race.

IM Germany 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Germany is one of the quicker races on the IM calendar with a course rating of 12:19, but not crazy fast such as Austria or Roth, so don’t expect any record-breaking times. There were a few sub-8 results in the last years, however.

Last year’s bike course was about 3-5k longer than normal – there was some construction on the bike course, so Andreas Raelert’s winning time of 8:05 would have been close to sub-8 territory. He beat Timo Bracht and Chris McCormack by a fair margin. On the women’s side, Sandra Wallenhorst (9:04) beat Caroline Steffen by two minutes and Yvonne van Vlerken by six minutes.

Male Participants

This is one of the biggest pro fields this season – as it’s probably the last big race before the end-of-July cutoff. Faris Al-Sultan is the biggest name from the existing ratings, Marko Albert (having just raced one IM in Austria) and Cameron Brown are on the list, but I’m not sure if they’ll actually be racing on Sunday. Most of the focus will be on Michael Raelert who will debut on the IM distance. (BTW: Does anyone know where Andreas wants to qualify?!)

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:16:15 08:28:03 9
2 Marko Albert EST 08:18:08 08:29:59 11
3 Cameron Brown NZL 08:19:58 08:31:51 13
4 Pedro Gomez POR 08:22:28 08:34:25 17
5 Michael Goehner GER 08:22:47 08:34:44 17
6 Patrick Vernay NCL 08:23:20 08:35:18 19
7 Jan Raphael GER 08:27:54 08:39:58 25
8 Uwe Widmann GER 08:30:20 08:42:28 31
9 Paul Amey USA 08:34:18 08:46:32 46
10 Stefan Riesen SWI 08:35:46 08:48:02 57
11 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:36:26 08:48:43 64
12 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:37:59 08:50:18 72
13 Frank Vytrisal GER 08:43:10 08:55:36 94
14 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:48:25 09:00:59 123
15 Mikel Elgezabal ESP 08:48:54 09:01:28 126
16 Simon Billeau FRA 08:50:25 09:03:02 133
17 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:50:39 09:03:16 135
18 Daniel Schmoll 08:53:48 09:06:29 147
19 Rene Goehler DEU 08:54:31 09:07:13 150
20 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:55:06 09:07:49 155
21 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:56:08 09:08:53 159
22 Jonathan Hotchkiss 08:57:57 09:10:44 172
23 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:58:52 09:11:41 176
24 Thomas Hellriegel GER 08:59:26 09:12:15 181
25 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:02:06 09:14:59 201
26 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:04:39 09:17:36 221
27 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:05:47 09:18:46 238
28 Dirk Wijnalda NLD 09:09:10 09:22:13 262
29 Andres Castillo latorre COL 09:12:50 09:25:59 289
30 Marcel Bischof GER 09:18:16 09:31:32 316
31 Teemu Lemmettyla FIN 09:20:58 09:34:18 332
32 Horst Reichel 09:29:36 09:43:09 397
33 Erich Felbabel FRA 09:33:59 09:47:38 428
34 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:36:15 09:49:57 440
35 Craig Twigg GBR 09:38:45 09:52:31 459
36 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:39:17 09:53:03 461
37 Hirotsugu Kuwabara 09:50:27 10:04:29 540
38 Freddy Lampret Sou 10:11:40 10:26:13 654
39 Ivan Tejero Vazquez 10:16:26 10:31:05 672
40 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:58:29 12:15:34 805
41 Michael Raelert n/a unrated n/a
42 Marc-andre Hages n/a unrated n/a
43 George Potrebitsch n/a unrated n/a
44 Andrey Lyatskiy n/a unrated n/a
45 Per Bittner n/a unrated n/a
46 Michael Wetzel n/a unrated n/a
47 Sylvain Sudrie n/a unrated n/a

Female Participants

As on the men’s side, there is a big and strong field on the women’s side:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken AUT 09:07:28 09:20:29 5
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:18:58 09:32:15 13
3 Samantha Warriner NZL 09:19:03 09:32:20 14
4 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:21:17 09:34:38 16
5 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:23:22 09:36:46 22
6 Silvia Felt GER 09:25:00 09:38:26 26
7 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:26:11 09:39:39 27
8 Tine Deckers BEL 09:26:41 09:40:09 29
9 Lucie Zelenkova ZAF 09:27:23 09:40:52 37
10 Kristin Moeller GER 09:29:41 09:43:14 41
11 Nicole Leder GER 09:34:54 09:48:34 49
12 Susan Dietrich 09:38:53 09:52:39 58
13 Mirjam Weerd NLD 09:39:50 09:53:37 62
14 Meike Krebs GER 09:42:17 09:56:08 70
15 Uli Bromme USA 09:45:59 09:59:55 75
16 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:46:49 10:00:46 77
17 Simone Benz SWI 09:52:59 10:07:05 94
18 Sarah Schuetz SWI 09:54:08 10:08:15 101
19 Desiree Ficker USA 10:06:46 10:21:11 148
20 Nicole Woysch GER 10:07:34 10:22:01 152
21 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:08:47 10:23:15 156
22 Olja Bregar 10:19:50 10:34:34 185
23 Amanda Balding USA 10:51:50 11:07:20 246
24 Saki Kubota n/a unrated n/a
25 Inka Wachter n/a unrated n/a

I expect some last minute additions to the race, but for now Yvonne Van Vlerken is the favorite. But basically anyone of the top 10 athletes can win this race, so it’ll be quite an interesting race to watch.

IM Lake Placid 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

I almost missed the Lake Placid Race this weekend .. so I’m a little late, but here are my predictions for the race. As usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the details post.

Previous Results

Lake Placid is one of the slower courses on the calendar with a course rating of –1:54, so it is even a bit slower than Hawaii. Last year’s race was won by Ben Hoffman in 8:39 and Amy Marsh in 9:27.

Male Participants

Ben Hoffman is back to defend his title, but he is only the fifth rated athlete:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:41:30 08:39:40 23
2 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:22 08:50:30 73
3 Luke Bell AUS 08:53:13 08:51:21 78
4 Torsten Abel GER 08:53:18 08:51:26 80
5 Ben Hoffman USA 08:55:22 08:53:29 88
6 TJ Tollakson USA 08:56:45 08:54:52 90
7 Mike Neill CAN 08:59:22 08:57:29 108
8 Mike Caiazzo USA 09:01:57 09:00:03 116
9 Ian Mikelson USA 09:13:37 09:11:41 176
10 Christopher Bagg USA 09:16:42 09:14:45 198
11 Raul Furtado BRA 09:20:40 09:18:42 236
12 Matthew Russell USA 09:24:02 09:22:03 260
13 Tim Snow USA 09:31:44 09:29:44 306
14 Logan Franks USA 09:36:42 09:34:41 336
15 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:43:22 09:41:19 390
16 John Hirsch USA 09:47:24 09:45:20 414
17 Raymond Botelho USA 10:01:42 09:59:35 503
18 Arland Macasieb PHL 10:21:59 10:19:48 621
19 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:28:12 10:26:00 652
20 Tyler Lord CAN 10:41:16 10:39:01 691
21 Ryan Grant CAN 11:23:51 11:21:27 770
22 Ryan Cain CAN n/a unrated n/a
23 Holden Cameau USA n/a unrated n/a
24 Ryan Kelly USA n/a unrated n/a

There are six athletes almost on the same level – it looks as if it is going to be a very close race on Sunday!

Female Participants

On the female side, Linsey Corbin was on the start list for some time, but she still appears to be injured. The new front-runner is Heather Wurtele:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:36:53 09:34:52 17
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:42:11 09:40:09 28
3 Tyler Stewart USA 09:42:18 09:40:15 30
4 Jackie Arendt USA 10:10:53 10:08:44 102
5 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:13:13 10:11:04 111
6 Marie Danais CAN 10:26:42 10:24:30 157
7 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:53:48 10:51:30 215
8 Amber Ferreira USA 11:40:57 11:38:30 265

Tine Deckers is another solid racer, and I’m sure that Tyler Stewart will be out near the front at least during the bike leg.

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