IM Cozumel 2011 – Predictions

I’m pretty busy in my day job right now, but Chris Bagg sent me an email asking for my predictions, so I put something together based on the start list on the Cozumel website. With the new IM Pro membership, there are quite a few athletes signing up for a lot of races. When they cancel, the lists are rarely updated accordingly. For example Dirk Bockel was on the list for Arizona, even though he had said weeks before that he wouldn’t start. So I hope this list doesn’t change too much before the start of the race …

Male Participants

Matthias Hecht is the favorite for winning the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:33:56 08:42:07 37
2 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:37:25 08:45:40 54
3 Swen Sundberg GER 08:37:55 08:46:10 60
4 Christian Ritter GER 08:38:42 08:46:58 65
5 Michael Lovato USA 08:40:03 08:48:20 72
6 Chris McDonald AUS 08:40:13 08:48:30 74
7 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:41:47 08:50:06 86
8 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:47:03 08:55:27 110
9 Patrick Evoe USA 08:48:41 08:57:06 116
10 Mikel Elgezabal ESP 08:52:31 09:01:00 136
11 Christopher Bagg USA 08:55:47 09:04:19 151
12 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:57:04 09:05:37 160
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:57:07 09:05:40 161
14 Ian Mikelson USA 08:59:09 09:07:44 174
15 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:00:17 09:08:53 180
16 Michael Wetzel GER 09:01:26 09:10:04 187
17 Horst Reichel GER 09:02:25 09:11:04 193
18 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:26 09:11:05 194
19 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:28 09:12:08 200
20 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:03:34 09:12:14 201
21 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:04:12 09:12:52 207
22 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:07:57 09:16:41 233
23 Raul Furtado BRA 09:09:30 09:18:15 250
24 Zach Ruble USA 09:09:34 09:18:19 252
25 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:09:58 09:18:44 257
26 Tim Snow USA 09:20:02 09:28:57 333
27 Ben Cotter CAN 09:26:02 09:35:03 374
28 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:28:01 09:37:04 385
29 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:59 09:42:07 418
30 Simon Malo CAN 09:39:28 09:48:42 465
31 Cesar Valera VEN 10:02:21 10:11:57 612
32 Bojan Maric SCG 10:05:19 10:14:58 629
33 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:18:16 10:28:07 694
34 Richard Wygand BRA 10:49:21 10:59:42 778
35 Luca De Paolis ITA n/a unrated n/a

Here are the percentages for winning the race:

  • Mathias Hecht: 28%
  • Michael Lovato: 24%
  • Swen Sundberg: 12%
  • Stephan Vuckovic: 12%
  • Chris McDonald: 8%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 6%
  • Patrick Evoe: 4%
  • Oscar Galindez: 2%

Female Participants

On the women’s side, I’m picking my country woman Sonja Tajsich for winning the race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:19:39 09:28:34 9
2 Erika Csomor HUN 09:27:10 09:36:12 24
3 Amanda Stevens USA 09:34:48 09:43:57 42
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:48:52 09:58:15 77
5 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:52:02 10:01:28 85
6 Annett Kamenz CAN 09:59:22 10:08:55 109
7 Anne Basso FRA 10:08:48 10:18:30 143
8 Simone Benz SWI 10:14:12 10:23:59 159
9 Terra Castro USA 10:14:20 10:24:07 160
10 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:29:21 10:39:23 198
11 Conny Dauben GER 10:37:40 10:47:50 218
12 Federica Frontini URU 10:40:28 10:50:40 222
13 Amanda Lovato USA 10:58:32 11:09:02 252

There are a few “shaky” candidates on the list (Amanda Stevens just raced in Arizona), but here are the odds for winning:

  • Sonja Tajsich: 50%
  • Erika Csomor: 33%
  • Amanda Stevens: 6%
  • Annett Kamenz: 5%
  • Sara Gross: 4%

IM Arizona 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Arizona has been quite consistent with the adjustment in the last years, and this year it came in at 12:25. It started with a few slower years and has course rating of 7:57, quite a bit slower than Florida (22:04 this year, overall 14:16).

Male Results

Eneko Llanos was the second male athlete posting a sub-8 result in North America within two weekends. As noted above, Arizona is a slower course than Florida, so his performance was more than just a few seconds better than the clock time showed.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 07:59:38 08:13:08
2 Paul Amey USA 08:01:29 08:33:40
3 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:14:36 08:33:51
4 Torsten Abel GER 08:16:44 08:37:57
5 Stephane Poulat 08:18:55 n/a
6 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:19:29 08:05:57
7 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:19:38 08:29:28
8 Michael Weiss AUT 08:21:36 08:21:18
9 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:22:21 09:08:01
10 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:26:10 08:42:17
11 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:29:03 08:40:21
12 Matthew Russell USA 08:29:19 08:59:53
13 Stefan Schmid 08:32:59 08:58:47
14 Patrick Jaberg 08:33:50 08:58:18
15 Nick Waninger 08:34:14 n/a
16 Joe Umphenour 08:36:10 n/a
17 Lewis Elliot USA 08:38:13 09:31:56
18 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:38:39 08:47:58
19 Ryan Rau 08:40:54 09:39:22
20 Mike Schifferle SWI 08:41:48 08:59:21
21 Flo Kriegl AUT 08:44:46 n/a
22 Kevin Taddonio 08:45:51 08:46:00
23 Pedro Gomez POR 08:46:19 08:22:04
24 Jared Milam 08:47:23 n/a
25 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:50:14 08:36:21
26 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:53:56 09:18:52
27 Thomas Gerlach 08:57:00 10:06:55
28 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:59:36 08:04:24
29 Christian Nitschke 08:59:56 08:48:30
30 Ivan Albano BRA 09:01:14 09:09:08
31 Dominik Berger AUT 09:02:52 08:56:15
32 Jeff Paul 09:05:19 n/a
33 Dave Harju CAN 09:08:42 09:06:51
34 Douglas Maclean 09:09:57 09:52:50
35 Erich Kunz SUI 09:12:03 08:54:03
36 Chris Boudreaux 09:20:19 n/a
37 Chad Johnston 09:26:25 09:30:28
38 Oliver Simon 09:26:33 08:51:28
39 Stefano Paoli ITA 09:33:08 09:36:14
40 Andrew Powell 09:37:59 10:09:50
41 Arland Macasieb PHL 09:44:30 10:04:31
42 Ryan Kelly USA 10:25:41 10:18:59
43 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:19:16 12:03:12
44 John Dahlz USA 11:21:09 10:36:32

One other thing came out of this race: Tim O’Donnell was leading the race after the bike and dropped to 28th on the run. His 3:44 was probably the slowest marathon for a sub-9 finish – probably one of the weirder records in Ironman racing.

Female Results

On the women’s side, we also had a “sub-x result”, in fact both the winner Leanda Cave and second place Linsey Corbin broke 9 hours. Meredith Kessler was just 15 seconds away.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 08:49:00 09:22:32
2 Linsey Corbin USA 08:54:33 09:21:09
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:00:14 09:27:16
4 Amanda Stevens USA 09:09:39 09:30:28
5 Michelle Vesterby 09:11:23 n/a
6 Kelly Williamson USA 09:12:18 09:21:58
7 Kathleen Calkins 09:12:40 n/a
8 Sara Gross CAN 09:18:03 09:44:29
9 Susan Dietrich GER 09:19:47 09:31:44
10 Charisa Wernick USA 09:22:37 10:18:00
11 Jessie Donavan 09:24:52 n/a
12 Jessica Smith 09:34:45 n/a
13 Whitney Garcia 09:40:22 12:46:28
14 Lisa Ribes 09:41:55 09:48:21
15 Amber Ferreira USA 09:42:20 10:49:00
16 Mirjam Weerd NLD 09:45:50 09:39:27
17 Kelly Liljeblad USA 09:49:41 10:15:31
18 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:50:10 09:44:15
19 Caroline Gregory USA 09:50:44 09:57:58
20 Rebekka Essmiller Ger 09:51:21 10:22:25
21 Erin Spitler 09:55:03 10:04:01
22 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:57:26 09:47:12
23 Marie Danais CAN 09:58:21 10:20:03

IM Florida 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

IM Florida saw some great times this weekend – for example Ronnie Schildknecht posted the first sub-8 in North America. The race conditions were favoring fast times: The adjustment for this race was 22:04 (the highest I’ve seen in Florida), almost as quick as Roth (2011 adjustment of 23:58).

Male Results

Ronnie Schildknecht finally started in another race than Switzerland and Hawaii and won in a convincing fashion:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SWI 07:59:42 08:12:55
2 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:10:43 08:20:14
3 Justin Daerr USA 08:18:02 08:32:08
4 Mads Vittrup 08:21:31 09:16:15
5 Frank Vytrisal GER 08:21:48 08:34:32
6 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:23:08 08:21:02
7 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:24:32 08:34:00
8 Scott Defilippis USA 08:27:13 09:12:02
9 James Bonney USA 08:29:56 09:18:02
10 Felix Schumann 08:35:08 08:18:57
11 Joel Jameson 08:35:31 08:49:59
12 Fabain Conrad 08:36:09 n/a
13 David Nasvik 08:38:56 08:55 09:47:45
14 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:45:27 09:14:34
15 John Flanagan USA 08:49:47 09:31:53
16 Devon Palmer USA 08:55:37 08:54:42
17 Brad Seng USA 09:05:29 08:54:51
18 Tim Snow USA 09:06:51 09:05:40
19 Markus Lichtenegger 09:07:53 09:23:13
20 Wolfgang Guembel CAN 09:08:17 08:47:47
21 Raymond Botelho USA 09:20:01 09:34:26
22 Christian Carletto 09:29:48 09:27:44
23 Craig Evans 10:06:55 11:22:17
24 Bojan Maric SCG 10:08:43 09:42:55

Female Results

Jessica Jacobs managed to defend her title and also finish sub-9:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jessica Jacobs USA 08:55:10 09:29:47
2 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:10:21 09:16:54
3 Sofie Goos BEL 09:22:21 09:20:04
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:29:07 09:22:39
5 Stephanie Jones USA 09:33:45 10:16:23
6 Bree Wee USA 09:34:41 09:33:33
7 Heidi Jesberger GER 09:37:08 09:42:43
8 Eimear Mullan 09:41:58 n/a
9 Kristin White 10:05:16 n/a
10 Caroline Smith 10:40:41 10:40:25

Ironman Florida 2011 Prediction

Now that IM Hawaii is over, there are only a few races left in the 2011 season. They already count towards Kona 2012, so there are a few athletes that try to ride their Kona fitness and get into a good position to qualify. As I did for Kona, I will focus on the race favorites and their chances of winning the race.

The Race

IM Florida is one of the faster courses on the calendar – by all descriptions I heard a very flat course that requires you to push all the time and offers very little variety. It has a course rating of 12:57, so some fast times can be expected. Last year’s race was won by James Cunnama in 8:15 and Jessica Jacobs in 9:07.

On the KPR side, Florida is on the lowest level of races – just 1.000 points for the winner and 25.000 US $ total price purse (paying 6 deep). Therefore, it is probably not the best race in order to get points to qualify for Kona.

Male Participants

Here are the favorites on the men’s side and their chance for winning the race:

  • Dirk Bockel: 47%
  • Eduardo Sturla: 29%
  • Christian Brader: 11%
  • Justin Daerr: 6%
  • Sebastian Pedraza: 2%
  • Wolfgang Guembel: 2%
  • James Bonney: 2%

There are quite a lot of athletes with a rating pretty close to 9 hours, so even if the race for the win may not be too exciting (assuming Dirk has recovered from his 4th place race in Kona), the fight for KPR points and the price money looks quite close. Dirk Bockel probably just looks to tick off the requirement of having raced an Ironman outside of Kona, his forth spot has already given him 4.450 points and that should be enough for a TOP 50 spot in the final KPR rankings.

Female Participants

The race promises to be a bit more exciting on the women’s side. Last year’s winner Jessica Jacobs returns to defend her title, but faces some competition by veteran racer Nina Kraft:

  • Jessica Jacobs: 37%
  • Nina Kraft: 36%
  • Mackenzie Madison: 18%
  • Bree Wee: 7%

There are seven pro women on the start list, so finishing the race almost guarantees a payday – even if 500$ for 6th place hardly covers the cost of flying out to Florida.

Rest Duration and Race Performance – a closer look at IM Hawaii

This post continues the analysis of the data from the recent Ironman Hawaii race. One of the consequences of the new KPR qualifying scheme was that every Pro who wants to race Kona has to race at least one Ironman in the year before Kona. Some athletes were even forced to race more often than they might have liked in order to get enough KPR points to be ranked in the TOP 50 (males) or TOP 30 (female). One of the concerns this raises is if this is going to have an impact on the Kona race. Or in other words, the KPR system probably did a good job of picking “the best athletes” for Kona, but did the qualified athletes race in top form or were they still tired from recent races?

What I’m analyzing is the impact of the “rest duration” to race results. “Rest duration” is the time difference in months between Kona and the race the athlete qualified for Kona (i.e. the the last Ironman race the athlete did). One caveat: The athlete may have raced other, shorter races, for example Olympic distance or even 70.3 races such as the 70.3 world championships in Las Vegas four weeks before Kona. However, these races probably didn’t add significant fatigue for the Kona racers – most of them focused on Kona and probably raced accordingly.

Data: Impact of Rest Duration on Finishing

Here is a table that looks at the number of athletes who finished or DNF’d broken down by Rest Duration:

Rest Duration
in Months
DNFs Finishers DNF Rate
11   7 0%
7   1 0%
6   3 0%
5 4 10 29%
4 4 2 67%
3 12 23 34%
2 3 7 30%
1   1 0%
All 23 54 30%

There are a few differences between DNFs and Finisher, but they are not very easy to spot:

  • All Athletes with a large Rest Duration (6 months and longer) have finished the race.
    My interpretation is that these athletes didn’t carry any fatigue from their IM any more. Some of them had injuries (Pete Jacobs comes to mind), but they were able to take care of them before starting the race. If they had some serious issues that did not resolve in time, then they didn’t even attempt to start (e.g. Terenzo Bozzone).
  • On average, finishers have one more month of rest than athletes that DNF’d.
    Largely as a consequence of the first point, Finishers have an average Rest Duration of 4.4 months whereas DNFs have only 3.4 months.
  • For shorter Rest Durations, the DNF rate is pretty stable around 30%.
    The exception is 4 months, but the number of athletes is probably too small for it to be significant. If there is any difference at all, slightly longer Rest Periods (3 and 4 months) have a higher DNF rate than really short ones (2 months and shorter). I would think that athletes with short rest periods race a bit more cautiously.

When trying to decide when to qualify (or to validate a Kona spot), this could mean to race as early as possible, but the difference is probably too small to base a decision on this data.

Data: Impact of Rest Duration on Race Performance

There is some more interesting information when including the race performance into the analysis. I did this by comparing the “expected race time” (taking the athletes rating prior to Kona and conditions on race day into account) to the actual race time. This data is shown in the following graph:


On the x axis, it shows the Rest Duration in months (shorter rest before the race to the right), on the y axis it shows the difference between the expected and actual performance of the athlete (in minutes, positive values mean that the athlete was quicker than expected). The thin blue line shows the actual data, the thicker orange line an approximation.

The data indicates that athletes with short Rest Durations (3 months and less) are not racing all that well (the data point for one month is just one athlete, so the graph may not even rise but continue to drop further). If an athlete wants to race well in Kona, their Rest Durations should be longer than three months. The data is not totally conclusive on what the “best” Rest Duration is (actual data pointing to 7 or 4 months, but the approximation indicates some value in the middle of this range). The data from this year does not show any positive or negative impact of really long rest periods (11 months).

Conclusions: What does this mean for pros and WTC?

For an athlete that wants to perform well in Kona, this means that they should seriously consider skipping the big July races (IM Austria, IM Switzerland, IM Germany, IM Lake Placid) and should avoid the August races (most notably, IM Canada). Interestingly, WTC has scheduled their new races exactly in the “not so good for Kona” timeframe: IM New York and IM Quebec have both race dates in August.

Instead of these summer races, athletes should try to qualify in earlier races, say IM New Zealand (March), IM South Africa (April), IM St. George, IM Texas or IM Lanzarote (May), maybe as late as  IM Coeur d’Arlene (June).

This analysis also  raises questions about WTC’s tries of establishing regional “Championship races” without hurting Kona. Other than the new race in Australia (IM Melbourne in March), these races are in July (IM Germany) and August (IM New York). It almost seems that pro athletes have to choose between Kona and one of the regional championships as it seems very tricky to race well in the regional championship and in Kona. This is certainly not in the interest of WTC and the people organizing the regional championship races. However, WTC may not have too much of a choice in this matter: An ideal date for a great Kona race (say May) is too early for the bulk of the athletes starting in these races that are not focused on qualifying for Kona.

One thing that seems obvious to me: WTC should move the cutoff dates for Kona qualifying by at least one month. Currently, these cutoffs are at the end of July (40 males, 25 females) and end of August (10 additional males, 5 additional females). In order not to devalue the July races too much, they should decide all spots at the end of July (or change the relations between the first second batches to 25-15 for May qualifiers and the same number for July qualifiers). Races after these dates would then count for the following year’s Kona race (so points from IM Canada 2012 should count for Kona 2013). This avoids some hectic racing in August: People that had to race in August in order to qualify, didn’t do too well in Kona – they were just too tired to race really well (think Mary-Beth Ellis).

I’m not sure if WTC is considering changes to the KPR. As far as I know, the system remains pretty much unchanged for 2012, but maybe we’ll see some adjustments for 2013. Other than some general grumbling about the KPR, I haven’t seen many specific suggestions how the KPR could be made better. Hopefully, WTC is going to solicit feedback on improving the KPR.

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