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IM Canada (Whistler) 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of 0:14, the new course in Whistler appears to be a little bit slower than the old course in Penticton (course rating of 4:17, now used for Challenge Penticton). Of the three legs, the bike appears to be the hardest (adjustment of -1:13), but even a run rating of 2:41 is still relatively slow. 

Male Race Results

Trevor Wurtele had a great day, winning his home IM. He has posted better IM times on faster courses (Arizona and New York), but this was probably his best, most even race. He put himself in a great position on the swim and bike, then posted the fastest run and win by more than five minutes over Matthew Russell. Completing the podium was Paul Amey, who lead a surprisingly large contingent of racers backing up after IM Mont Tremblant in search for the last KPR points to qualify. In addition to Paul, Mike Schifferle in 4th and Dominik Berger in 6th place qualified for Kona, while Bruno Clerbout (who had not raced since IM France and was the best rested of the potential qualifiers) was too far back from decent points and DNF’d.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:54:27 04:46:51 02:54:31 08:39:33 -29:17
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:58:13 04:42:53 03:00:12 08:45:15 -10:57
3 Paul Amey GBR 00:51:07 04:55:51 03:02:19 08:53:27 10:51
4 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:00:12 04:54:41 02:52:44 08:53:58 -08:48
5 Andrew Russell CAN 00:49:22 04:56:42 03:08:08 08:58:23 n/a
6 Dominik Berger AUT 00:49:05 04:57:53 03:09:15 09:00:24 00:31
7 Matt Lieto USA 00:51:30 04:48:56 03:18:52 09:04:21 -13:12
8 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:54:48 05:01:36 03:10:46 09:11:15 -50:56
9 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:01:41 05:09:44 02:55:04 09:11:56 01:04
10 Thomas Maliszewski USA 01:01:19 05:16:43 03:11:25 09:36:27 02:42
11 Dan Litwora USA 00:57:52 05:07:09 03:26:57 09:37:20 n/a
12 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:48:45 05:14:30 03:30:21 09:38:40 25:08
13 Jim Lubinski USA 01:04:50 05:18:45 03:14:43 09:42:02 -01:13
14 Brendan Naef CAN 00:58:13 05:31:24 03:28:31 10:04:35 -34:40
15 Jonathan Caron CAN 00:49:24 05:20:16 04:33:15 10:47:50 51:58

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, we had Olesya Prystsayko backing up from IM Mont Tremblant in search for KPR points, but she was far off from the required win. Uli Bromme took the win, compensating for her typical slow swim with the race best bike and run splits. She was followed by Lisa Ribes and Gillian Moody: 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Uli Bromme USA 01:03:02 05:13:51 03:06:53 09:28:13 -31:55
2 Lisa Ribes USA 01:03:04 05:22:10 03:08:53 09:38:34 -06:04
3 Gillian Moody CAN 00:56:51 05:29:16 03:18:39 09:49:09 -00:10
4 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:57:58 05:25:48 03:26:56 09:56:45 -29:56
5 Christine Anderson USA 00:55:13 05:29:06 03:33:28 10:01:59 03:20
6 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:01:08 05:28:50 03:37:24 10:11:36 -01:31
7 Kristyn Tobey BMU 01:10:02 05:37:24 03:38:07 10:32:09 n/a
8 Sarah Baker CAN 01:03:07 05:40:47 03:56:16 10:44:23 n/a
9 Martina Wan CAN 00:57:52 06:07:14 04:11:32 11:22:25 n/a

IM Louisville 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions in Louisville were pretty fast this year: I’ve calculated a race adjustment of 6:10 while the new course rating is at 0:19. The bike was pretty typical, but both the swim and the bike were quicker than in the past years.

Male Race Results

Chris McDonald won the race in a new course record. He was close to the lead on the swim, then posted a new bike course record and also the fastest run of the day. Last year’s winner Patrick Evoe and Thomas Gerlach were close together for most of the day, then Patrick pulled away to secure the runner up spot. The same podium as last year, just in a slightly different order.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Chris McDonald AUS 00:48:56 04:29:14 02:57:56 08:21:34 -20:26
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:51:57 04:36:29 03:00:48 08:34:16 -18:46
3 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:51:52 04:36:28 03:07:12 08:41:11 -09:01
4 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:48:58 04:40:19 03:07:30 08:43:24 -20:59
5 Ryan Bates USA 00:48:47 04:45:10 03:17:52 08:57:38 n/a
6 Mike Hermanson USA 00:50:44 04:54:15 03:13:53 09:05:01 -14:39
7 Devon Palmer USA 00:48:59 04:45:54 03:35:39 09:16:21 06:11
8 Andrew Hodges USA 00:48:17 05:18:41 03:24:08 09:38:28 -18:25
9 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:51:50 05:06:17 03:35:46 09:38:58 13:45
10 Peter Kotland USA 00:52:35 05:29:28 03:48:45 10:20:01 34:17
11 Ed Donner USA 00:55:04 05:10:11 04:13:43 10:25:39 n/a

Female Race Results

On the female side, Kate Bevilaqua had a great race, posting better than expected times in all three legs. She was in the lead (or within just a minute or so) for the whole day, but it seemed she never have a comfortable enough lead to relax for a minute. She didn’t have the best time for any of the legs, but won by more than four minutes.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:49:03 05:13:32 03:20:29 09:29:02 -24:46
2 Brooke Brown CAN 00:59:59 05:13:15 03:15:39 09:33:46 n/a
3 Whitney Garcia USA 00:55:00 05:08:09 03:24:30 09:34:21 -20:19
4 Nina Kraft GER 00:48:52 05:17:53 03:25:30 09:38:45 09:35
5 April Gellatly USA 00:52:29 05:15:25 03:26:06 09:39:40 -27:50
6 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 00:55:16 05:23:39 03:31:56 09:56:24 n/a
7 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 00:48:44 05:20:21 03:43:03 09:58:08 -11:50
8 Cindy Lewis CAN 00:58:37 05:34:34 03:33:20 10:12:48 00:51
9 Caroline Gregory USA 00:52:31 05:39:50 03:51:33 10:28:53 14:11
10 Tami Ritchie USA 00:48:58 06:06:52 03:36:23 10:38:22 06:29

IM Canada 2013 – Predictions

IM Canada has moved locations: Last year it was held in its “traditional” venue in Penticton. However, the town felt the race was neglected by WTC (evidenced by the race being on the lowest level of KPR points – P-1000 – and prize money – 25.000 US$) and decided to have the race organized under the Challenge banner. (They will hold their race on the same weekend.) WTC then quickly announced a new location for IM Canada in Whistler – giving the race an improved status by designating it a P-2000 race with a prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

As mentioned above, last year’s IM Canada was held in Penticton on a different course.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matthew Russell USA 01:03:04 04:48:41 02:53:34 08:48:30
2 Olly Piggin CAN 00:56:51 04:48:43 03:05:25 08:54:17
3 Christian Brader GER 00:57:29 04:48:19 03:09:52 08:58:59

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Gillian Clayton CAN 01:08:32 05:16:51 03:17:08 09:46:07
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:55:41 05:30:09 03:21:43 09:50:52
3 Janelle Morrison CAN 01:06:46 05:16:47 03:25:57 09:53:20

Course Records and Rating

As this is the first race on this course, there are no course records and the course is unrated so far.

KPR points and Price Money

IM Canada has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

There are a lot of names on this list that have raced last week in Mont Tremblant. Expect to see a few withdrawals.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Paul Amey GBR n/a 08:42:53 00:50:13 04:48:26 03:02:53 51
2 Daniel Halksworth GBR n/a 08:47:12 00:47:34 04:47:34 03:07:42 68
3 Jonathan Caron CAN n/a 08:56:09 00:49:47 04:57:04 03:06:33 99
4 Matthew Russell USA n/a 08:56:32 01:02:53 04:49:21 02:59:26 100
5 Bruno Clerbout BEL n/a 08:57:13 00:51:04 04:58:49 02:59:31 103
6 Dominik Berger AUT n/a 09:00:09 00:48:20 04:50:12 03:20:53 117
7 Mike Schifferle SUI n/a 09:03:05 01:00:25 04:51:21 03:06:57 127
8 Nigel Gray CAN n/a 09:09:05 00:55:29 04:50:27 03:18:36 141
9 Trevor Wurtele CAN n/a 09:09:05 00:54:49 04:52:27 03:17:52 141
10 Matthew Sheeks USA n/a 09:11:08 01:03:24 05:04:13 02:57:38 150
11 Bryan Rhodes NZL n/a 09:14:05 00:47:47 04:53:59 03:22:41 162
12 Matt Lieto USA n/a 09:17:47 00:52:07 04:46:42 03:31:28 168
13 Paul Hawkins GBR n/a 09:20:04 00:58:30 05:28:53 03:20:25 171
14 Thomas Maliszewski USA n/a 09:34:03 01:03:35 05:11:04 03:06:05 214
15 Jim Lubinski USA n/a 09:43:49 01:01:29 05:12:24 03:24:58 250
16 Nathan Birdsall USA n/a 10:01:16 01:06:43 04:54:29 03:52:59 301
17 Stephen Kilshaw CAN n/a 10:02:25 00:54:17 05:08:53 03:53:39 303
18 Brendan Naef CAN n/a 10:39:39 00:58:02 05:15:02 03:20:43 352
Dan Litwora USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Andrew Russell CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Lisa Ribes USA n/a 09:46:02 01:04:38 05:20:06 03:17:14 51
2 Keiko Tanaka JAP n/a 09:49:00 00:54:20 05:27:02 03:23:36 59
3 Gillian Moody CAN n/a 09:49:34 00:55:06 05:27:42 03:23:14 60
4 Christine Anderson USA n/a 09:59:23 00:54:45 05:29:06 03:33:12 77
5 Uli Bromme USA n/a 10:00:27 01:02:55 05:23:34 03:29:26 80
6 Olesya Prystayko UKR n/a 10:13:34 00:59:34 05:32:14 03:39:50 98
7 Annett Kamenz GER n/a 10:24:47 01:04:04 05:46:24 03:36:42 120
8 Christine Fletcher CAN n/a 10:26:57 00:59:12 05:31:45 03:47:37 121
Sarah Baker CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Martina Wan CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Kristyn Tobey BMU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Julie Van Veelen CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Christina Jackson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Paul Amey: 27% (3-1)
  • Daniel Halksworth: 23% (3-1)
  • Trevor Wurtele: 19% (4-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 10% (9-1)
  • Bruno Clerbout: 9% (10-1)
  • Jonathan Caron: 5% (18-1)
  • Dominik Berger: 3% (28-1)
  • Bryan Rhodes: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Lisa Ribes: 37% (2-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 23% (3-1)
  • Gillian Moody: 16% (5-1)
  • Annett Kamenz: 8% (11-1)
  • Christine Anderson: 7% (14-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 6% (15-1)
  • Olesya Prystayko: 2% (59-1)

IM Louisville 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrick Evoe USA 00:58:15 04:33:31 03:06:01 08:42:44
2 Chris McDonald AUS 00:56:26 04:47:28 03:04:09 08:52:59
3 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:56:19 04:39:52 03:21:33 09:02:42

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bree Wee USA 00:56:21 05:12:18 03:22:03 09:36:27
2 Jackie Arendt USA 00:56:18 05:15:47 03:20:12 09:38:14
3 Terra Castro USA 00:58:18 05:23:22 03:25:57 09:53:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:25:27 Victor Zyemtsev 2009-08-28
Swim overall 00:44:54 John Flanagan 2009-08-28
Bike overall 04:31:36 Paul Ambrose 2010-08-29
Run overall 02:43:48 Victor Zyemtsev 2009-08-28
Total female 09:20:21 Nina Kraft 2009-08-28
Swim female 00:48:52 Nina Kraft 2007-08-26
Swim female 00:48:52 Carole Sharpless 2007-08-26
Bike female 05:02:24 Lisbeth Kristensen 2009-08-28
Run female 03:05:07 Kim Loeffler 2009-08-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Louisville is – 00:39.

Race Adjustments for IM Louisville

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 -07:32 00:25 00:27 -06:52 21 -07:32 00:25 00:27 -06:52
2008 -08:51 -02:37 01:50 -06:48 26 -08:11 -01:06 01:09 -06:50
2009 02:07 -01:43 01:42 04:20 33 -04:45 -01:18 01:20 -03:07
2010 -03:45 -00:58 03:26 -08:19 18 -04:30 -01:13 01:51 -04:25
2011 09:09 01:13 04:47 04:37 16 -01:46 -00:44 02:27 -02:36
2012 04:57 -02:38 04:27 -03:16 12 -00:39 -01:03 02:47 -02:43

KPR points and Price Money

IM Louisville has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

The Top3 from last year are back and will race again .. hard to pick a favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:48:30 08:47:52 00:52:52 04:44:53 03:04:53 71
2 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:56:59 08:56:20 00:54:52 04:45:25 03:13:01 99
3 Patrick Evoe USA 08:59:35 08:58:56 00:55:41 04:46:21 03:11:18 110
4 Jonathan Shearon USA 09:11:05 09:10:25 00:54:28 04:49:37 03:26:45 145
5 Guy Crawford AUS 09:13:34 09:12:54 00:49:04 04:47:04 03:37:45 156
6 Devon Palmer USA 09:17:13 09:16:33 00:52:33 04:49:31 03:27:53 167
7 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:32:33 09:31:51 00:55:50 05:12:34 03:19:58 204
8 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:37:37 09:36:55 00:54:53 05:12:13 03:28:37 226
9 Tom Wood USA 09:39:09 09:38:27 00:56:57 05:16:16 03:17:03 232
10 John Hirsch USA 09:45:16 09:44:34 00:55:38 05:15:29 03:25:11 253
11 Peter Kotland USA 09:53:35 09:52:52 00:58:10 05:14:58 03:30:04 276
12 Andrew Hodges USA 10:04:20 10:03:36 00:50:33 05:34:08 03:35:25 304
13 Mike Hermanson USA 10:26:42 10:25:57 00:55:16 05:23:09 03:55:03 348
Ryan Bates USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Ed Donner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:36:30 09:35:48 00:50:52 05:22:20 03:18:36 31
2 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:00:36 09:59:52 00:56:52 05:21:59 03:36:52 79
3 Whitney Garcia USA 10:02:00 10:01:16 00:59:21 05:32:55 03:30:28 82
4 April Gellatly USA 10:15:06 10:14:21 00:56:48 05:30:07 03:40:56 102
5 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:17:21 10:16:36 00:51:44 05:38:16 03:43:45 107
6 Cindy Lewis CAN 10:19:49 10:19:04 01:04:09 05:32:41 03:37:07 112
7 Caroline Gregory USA 10:22:34 10:21:49 00:58:30 05:45:29 03:39:06 118
8 Tami Ritchie USA 10:39:59 10:39:13 00:51:29 06:02:37 03:48:49 125
Rachel Jastrebsky USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Brooke Brown CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Patrick Evoe: 46% (1-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 36% (2-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 10% (9-1)
  • Guy Crawford: 4% (23-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Nina Kraft: 47% (1-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 22% (4-1)
  • Whitney Garcia: 13% (7-1)
  • April Gellatly: 6% (15-1)
  • Cindy Lewis: 4% (23-1)
  • Svetlana Blazevic: 4% (23-1)
  • Caroline Gregory: 3% (34-1)

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2013-06-23 00:53:07 04:56:24 02:49:09 08:42:10 08:45:30 08:47:52 5
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:56:26 04:47:28 03:04:09 08:52:59 08:57:52 08:48:08 2
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:43:34 04:40:37 03:13:39 08:41:30 08:48:23 08:47:09 10
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:51:47 04:35:45 02:55:22 08:27:36 08:36:12 08:47:00 1
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:24:34 08:45:54 08:48:01 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:51:29 04:33:01 03:03:02 08:32:37 08:43:23 08:48:13 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:57:53 04:44:30 03:05:16 08:52:04 08:51:37 08:48:39 35
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 00:54:42 04:35:17 03:04:39 08:37:22 08:53:00 08:48:22 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 00:55:47 04:42:39 03:07:01 08:48:30 08:55:34 08:47:55 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 00:51:20 04:54:02 03:06:25 08:54:42 08:45:56 08:47:06 3
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 00:54:21 04:43:14 03:13:05 08:56:47 08:57:16 08:47:14 5
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 00:50:30 04:22:31 03:01:39 08:17:39 08:37:51 08:46:12 11
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:37:41 08:43:27 08:47:06 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 00:50:25 04:33:54 03:31:02 08:58:59 09:09:09 08:47:29 17
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 00:51:52 04:48:41 02:56:40 08:43:29 08:44:39 08:45:04 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:54:53 04:36:13 03:19:48 08:54:54 08:46:08 08:45:07 2
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 00:50:02 04:29:38 02:58:25 08:20:59 08:38:56 08:44:59 4
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:49:37 08:44:52 08:45:52 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:52:17 04:26:53 03:02:02 08:21:12 08:43:33 08:46:00 8
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:51:54 04:39:58 03:00:34 08:38:40 08:31:26 08:46:24 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 00:51:27 04:31:27 02:57:54 08:24:42 08:45:20 08:49:04 9
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 00:51:59 04:32:27 03:11:34 08:36:00 08:50:52 08:49:49 4
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 00:57:33 04:55:17 03:13:02 09:12:35 08:52:07 08:49:36 2
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 00:52:35 05:01:32 03:08:54 09:07:55 08:50:41 08:48:59 9
IM Australia 2006-05-11 00:50:01 04:55:16 03:11:54 08:57:11 08:57:53 08:48:28 8
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 00:55:10 04:38:00 03:04:28 08:37:38 08:39:27 08:44:37 6
Challenge Canada 2005-08-29 00:54:58 04:42:31 03:06:13 08:47:10 08:48:13 08:47:31 5
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 00:52:38 04:49:55 02:59:38 08:46:45 08:46:45 08:46:45 5

Results for Thomas Gerlach (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2013-06-23 00:58:04 04:47:31 03:10:35 09:00:02 09:03:29 08:56:20 7
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 00:58:30 04:41:51 03:03:02 08:47:46 08:44:44 08:55:03 7
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 00:54:29 04:28:54 03:08:49 08:36:05 08:46:32 08:57:07 10
IM Florida 2012-11-03 00:57:45 04:15:57 03:14:54 08:33:26 08:48:55 08:59:29 11
IM Wisconsin 2012-09-09 00:54:42 04:45:21 03:12:19 08:58:20 08:54:04 09:02:29 6
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:56:19 04:39:52 03:21:33 09:02:42 09:07:40 09:05:37 3
IM St. George 2012-04-29 00:59:19 05:33:54 03:12:14 09:49:00 08:59:04 09:04:26 4
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:57:04 04:43:37 03:12:27 08:57:00 09:10:31 09:10:31 27

Results for Patrick Evoe (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2013-05-05 00:53:20 04:51:16 02:54:58 08:42:58 08:54:57 08:58:56 2
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:58:00 04:38:02 04:03:03 09:42:47 09:48:38 08:59:38 24
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:58:15 04:33:31 03:06:01 08:42:44 08:47:31 08:50:36 1
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:53:02 04:24:09 02:59:23 08:30:36 08:40:22 08:51:14 2
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:54:16 04:39:10 02:52:26 08:30:35 08:39:14 08:53:25 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 00:58:30 04:30:26 02:59:28 08:32:29 08:41:18 08:56:40 8
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:35:27 08:44:45 09:00:49 7
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:56:07 04:48:06 03:03:40 08:53:14 08:49:32 09:05:44 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 01:00:55 04:51:38 02:56:10 08:52:05 08:59:11 09:12:13 7
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:51:00 04:45:52 05:28:43 11:09:12 11:14:09 09:59:15 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 01:03:30 05:19:23 03:29:10 09:56:43 09:48:47 09:20:14 60
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 00:57:48 04:57:50 03:12:49 09:14:18 09:11:45 09:03:02 9
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:59:09 04:49:47 03:03:55 08:59:16 08:51:44 08:51:44 5

Results for Jonathan Shearon (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2012-09-09 00:54:41 04:51:17 03:36:02 09:28:54 09:24:24 09:10:25 13
IM Texas 2012-05-19 00:56:55 04:34:20 03:10:12 08:46:37 08:55:07 08:55:07 11

Results for Guy Crawford (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Taiwan 2013-05-04 00:52:55 04:35:37 03:12:51 08:46:07 08:53:21 09:12:54 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2012-06-24 00:51:28 04:50:17 04:02:10 09:47:12 09:47:25 09:22:56 11
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:49:33 04:32:55 03:44:06 09:10:50 09:14:03 09:06:32 13
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 00:49:06 04:43:12 03:15:14 08:50:28 08:56:31 08:56:31 9

Results for Devon Palmer (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 00:54:01 04:35:18 03:18:47 08:55:37 09:16:33 09:16:33 16
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 00:51:24 04:40:05 03:28:09 09:04:49 09:16:33 09:16:33 16

Results for Jesse Vondracek (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:57:36 05:14:18 03:12:31 09:28:13 09:33:55 09:31:51 22
IM Wisconsin 2012-09-09 00:58:48 05:22:50 03:15:53 09:43:54 09:39:17 09:31:32 16
IM St. George 2012-04-29 00:58:47 06:06:57 03:20:21 10:29:36 09:36:14 09:30:12 8
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:56:59 04:45:21 03:07:28 08:53:56 09:07:22 09:29:05 26
IM Florida 2011-11-05 00:55:06 04:39:22 03:06:01 08:45:27 09:05:59 09:33:17 14
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 00:58:27 05:13:34 04:12:18 10:30:44 10:22:20 09:39:45 13
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 00:56:40 05:06:13 03:17:17 09:24:08 09:36:17 09:27:16 25
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:57:26 05:08:05 03:15:03 09:25:52 09:21:56 09:24:32 7
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 00:57:33 05:08:33 03:07:00 09:18:10 09:21:36 09:25:33 9
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 00:59:01 05:00:52 03:19:21 09:23:27 09:36:18 09:28:02 24
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:59:43 05:05:04 03:07:14 09:17:01 09:19:12 09:19:12 13

Results for Kyle Pawlaczyk (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2012-11-03 00:58:00 04:56:04 05:23:13 11:23:06 11:43:42 09:36:55 27
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 00:57:42 05:07:00 03:10:43 09:19:50 09:20:37 09:36:55 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:55:02 04:48:51 03:51:14 09:40:43 09:52:55 09:47:06 26
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 00:57:31 05:19:18 03:14:24 09:37:13 09:40:47 09:40:47 16

Results for Tom Wood (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2013-07-28 00:56:49 05:22:59 03:15:02 09:40:44 09:38:27 09:38:27 13

Results for John Hirsch (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2013-07-28 00:54:46 05:25:02 03:22:46 09:48:49 09:46:30 09:44:34 16
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 00:57:35 05:20:51 03:22:43 09:45:50 09:47:33 09:43:37 10
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 00:58:22 05:18:44 03:14:22 09:36:33 09:40:06 09:42:09 15
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:57:42 05:13:39 03:33:37 09:49:48 09:52:07 09:42:57 22
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:59:28 05:09:52 03:23:59 09:37:03 09:27:36 09:39:02 10
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:56:02 05:09:31 03:31:32 09:44:15 09:36:06 09:44:26 15
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 00:54:10 05:23:33 03:21:55 09:45:26 09:27:02 09:49:00 20
IM Florida 2005-11-05 00:57:07 04:56:06 03:30:38 09:32:03 09:46:28 10:03:35 23
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 00:59:53 05:32:47 03:46:17 10:23:47 10:23:47 10:23:47 23

Results for Peter Kotland (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2013-07-28 01:00:25 05:29:33 03:54:55 10:32:46 10:30:16 09:52:52 20
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:57:52 05:07:20 03:06:48 09:20:28 09:22:40 09:29:30 14
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:59:33 05:06:11 03:19:39 09:32:51 09:23:28 09:31:14 9
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:57:40 04:48:56 03:11:30 09:04:44 09:24:26 09:33:03 27
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:56:07 05:04:01 03:11:53 09:22:20 09:14:29 09:35:01 13
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 01:00:26 05:30:22 03:09:33 09:45:34 09:47:46 09:40:41 19
IM Florida 2006-11-04 00:58:29 05:06:36 03:08:18 09:22:25 09:35:25 09:38:10 20
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 01:01:27 05:38:46 03:24:27 10:18:42 09:55:47 09:39:20 13
IM Florida 2005-11-05 00:57:40 04:50:07 03:13:25 09:08:36 09:22:25 09:28:11 14
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 00:57:35 05:16:44 03:20:22 09:34:43 09:34:43 09:34:43 12

Results for Andrew Hodges (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2013-05-18 00:51:52 05:06:39 03:29:26 09:33:42 09:41:29 10:03:36 16
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:53:10 05:43:14 03:42:23 10:25:07 10:30:51 10:30:51 9

Results for Mike Hermanson (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:57:48 05:18:11 03:58:45 10:20:16 10:25:57 10:25:57 8

Results for Ryan Bates (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ed Donner (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Nina Kraft (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:50:14 05:22:47 03:19:17 09:38:14 09:48:02 09:35:48 1
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:52:56 05:14:29 03:07:32 09:20:21 09:22:33 09:27:40 1
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:50:43 04:59:22 03:11:12 09:05:35 09:25:19 09:30:44 1
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:48:52 05:28:43 03:27:18 09:51:56 09:43:40 09:33:41 2
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 00:50:39 05:07:49 03:14:12 09:12:40 09:22:58 09:22:58 1

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Taiwan 2013-05-04 00:56:26 05:24:00 03:39:14 10:05:09 10:13:29 09:59:52 3
Challenge Wanaka 2013-01-19 01:00:42 05:33:58 03:43:11 10:22:49 10:17:01 09:57:44 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:57:00 05:05:56 03:36:14 09:43:37 09:47:01 09:54:27 6
IM Korea 2011-07-03 00:55:08 05:04:49 03:35:28 09:39:44 09:45:27 09:55:30 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 00:58:28 05:11:55 03:23:55 09:40:01 09:36:38 09:56:55 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 01:01:43 04:53:52 03:20:42 09:19:44 09:26:07 09:59:55 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 01:01:45 05:26:59 03:45:54 10:19:31 10:19:00 10:05:18 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 00:57:27 05:27:02 03:23:12 09:53:39 09:57:19 10:02:50 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:57:53 05:34:47 03:39:36 10:19:45 10:11:47 10:03:58 5
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 00:57:11 05:12:47 04:02:19 10:18:12 10:26:26 10:02:05 7
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 01:03:22 05:02:57 03:39:33 09:45:53 09:59:10 09:54:57 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:55:01 05:06:56 03:12:39 09:20:06 09:26:03 09:53:22 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 01:03:05 05:33:42 03:17:07 10:00:56 09:58:32 10:01:20 24
IM Australia 2007-04-08 00:55:19 05:22:03 03:19:40 09:37:02 09:39:28 10:02:19 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 00:55:29 05:05:57 03:25:39 09:27:05 09:43:26 10:12:20 4
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 00:55:17 06:18:00 03:31:22 10:51:14 10:42:45 10:31:23 5
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 00:56:45 05:35:38 03:37:24 10:16:40 10:16:40 10:16:40 2

Results for Whitney Garcia (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2012-09-09 01:01:24 05:33:04 03:32:24 10:14:32 10:09:40 10:01:16 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2012-06-24 01:01:56 05:32:47 03:20:18 10:01:46 10:01:59 09:57:53 3
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:58:23 05:06:28 03:29:10 09:40:22 09:54:58 09:55:23 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 01:00:39 05:24:18 03:29:33 10:03:53 09:55:50 10:54:06 3
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:55:46 06:16:22 04:57:20 12:25:53 12:31:24 12:31:24 11

Results for April Gellatly (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2013-06-23 00:56:32 05:35:57 03:52:41 10:30:45 10:34:47 10:14:21 11
IM Texas 2013-05-18 00:59:01 05:22:36 03:34:11 10:01:54 10:10:04 10:10:15 7
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 00:56:39 05:26:08 03:24:21 09:52:36 09:49:12 10:10:18 8
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 01:03:38 05:16:01 03:33:10 09:57:59 10:03:59 10:16:38 17
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:59:33 05:12:42 03:50:39 10:09:45 10:15:20 10:21:25 5
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 01:01:31 05:40:46 03:41:02 10:28:52 10:32:45 10:24:44 12
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:50:59 05:34:51 03:30:39 10:01:40 10:06:07 10:21:20 6
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:59:55 05:29:09 03:45:24 10:20:00 10:22:26 10:29:37 8
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 00:56:49 05:45:14 03:50:54 10:38:05 10:37:00 10:37:00 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 00:57:54 05:25:42 07:07:21 13:38:21 13:53:47 13:53:47 16

Results for Svetlana Blazevic (SCG)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:52:50 05:22:13 03:48:07 10:08:42 10:15:02 10:16:36 10
IM Austria 2011-07-03 00:50:48 05:20:30 03:12:31 09:30:15 09:56:53 10:18:20 9
IM Australia 2009-04-05 00:52:40 06:04:51 03:59:01 10:56:33 10:59:13 10:59:13 10

Results for Cindy Lewis (CAN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 01:07:21 05:15:03 03:28:49 09:57:08 10:09:14 10:19:04 17
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 01:02:18 05:25:47 03:29:48 10:04:14 10:14:28 10:24:16 6
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 01:00:10 05:09:30 03:32:09 09:45:56 10:11:30 10:30:04 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 01:04:29 05:52:17 03:46:38 10:53:06 10:50:06 10:54:43 8
Challenge Canada 2007-08-26 01:09:23 05:54:42 03:45:20 10:56:42 11:00:41 11:00:41 20

Results for Caroline Gregory (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:57:55 05:39:31 03:56:56 10:38:17 10:44:55 10:21:49 13
IM Texas 2012-05-19 01:02:55 05:29:01 03:31:32 10:07:47 10:17:35 10:10:28 8
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:58:32 05:22:17 03:25:44 09:50:44 10:05:36 10:06:08 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 01:02:25 05:42:26 03:16:49 10:05:53 10:06:44 10:06:44 4

Results for Tami Ritchie (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2012-05-19 00:53:33 05:48:25 03:42:19 10:30:05 10:40:15 10:39:13 10
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:48:53 05:43:56 03:49:29 10:26:04 10:38:02 10:38:02 12

Results for Rachel Jastrebsky (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Brooke Brown (CAN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Final Qualifying Races for Kona 2013

This weekend, there are the final races that give out points for Kona 2013:

This post has a look at what the current KPR ranking is after three Ironman races last weekend (including the P-4000 race in Mont Tremblant), what changes are possible and who I think the final qualifiers are going to be.

Please note that my analysis is based on the start lists that I was able to find or that I was sent by WTC – they may be outdated by now, and some additional athletes may have decided to go for the last few points. Please let me know if there are errors in my numbers or if you have some newer information that may change things.

Situation after Mont Tremblant

The big point race in Mont Tremblant (P-4000) and (to a lesser degree)  the “smaller” races in Sweden (P-2000) and Copenhagen (P-1000) have changed the KPR standings quite significantly. Rather than list the “full” KPR standing, mixing those already qualified with those still looking for a slot (as WTC does), which just shows pretty meaningless overall positions, here are the athletes that are currently in the remaining Kona qualifying spots.

Women

The women’s field in Kona will be 35 (+automatic qualifiers). 28 were already awarded at the end of July, so there are 7 more spots available:

Rank Name Points
1 Rebekah Keat 7.680
2 Liz Blatchford 6.730
3 Britta Martin 6.210
4 Jennie Hansen 5.870
5 Anja Beranek 5.750
6 Sarah Piampiano 5.690
7 Eva Nystroem 5.400

Men

The men’s field in Kona will be 50 (+automatic qualifiers). 40 were already awarded at the end of July, so there are 10 more spots available:

Rank Name Points
1 Luke Bell 6.320
2 Brandon Marsh 5.830
3 Bert Jammaer 5.560
4 Stefan Schmid 5.140
5 David Plese 5.065
6 Daniel Halksworth 4.820
7 Romain Guillaume 4.715
8 Pedro Gomes 4.620
9 Jozsef Major 4.390
10 Mike Schifferle 4.320

Update: I haven’t checked if all of these athletes are interested in a slot. At least Romain Guillaume indicated in an interview with the French Trimag that he won’t race Kona but wants to start to chase 2014 points in Wisconsin (but left the final decision open). So we may see some slots rolling down after all.

Brasil 70.3

After having a look at the start list for the Brasil 70.3, the chance of anyone from the field getting the required points to cross the qualifying threshold is pretty slim. (We have two participants who are already qualified, Amanda Stevens and Igor Amorelli).

The best placed non-qualified women that I could find is Ariane Monticelli with 2.160 points. With Brasil giving out 750 points for the winner, she won’t be able to get into qualifying territory. The situation is similar for the men, the best places athlete is Jeremy Jurkiewicz with 3.620 points. If he wins the race, he’d get to 4.370 points, barely moving past Mike Schifferle. However, I expect that the number of points required is to move up, so the chances of Jeremy qualifying are more theoretical.

IM Louisville

The situation for the field in Louisville is similar. Aside from one athlete already qualified (Thomas Gerlach), the best placed athletes (April Lea Gellatly with 3.300 points and Chris McDonald with 1.890 points) are too far back to get the required points in the P-1000 race. For a closer look at the field, check out my IM Louisville predictions post.

IM Canada

IM Canada will be held in Whistler for the first time this year. Being a P-2000 race it offers the best chances to get some final qualifying points. For a closer look at the field, please check out my IM Canada predictions post.

In the women’s field there is only one registered athlete who could get enough points to move beyond Eva Nystroem with 5.400 points: Olesya Pristayko with currently 3.850 points. However, she has five results already, so with winning Canada she’ll move to 5.570 points. (A 2nd place will only get her to 5.330, not enough to qualify.) Can she win Canada? It’s not impossible, but she just raced in Mont Tremblant so I’ll say it’s very unlikely.

All in all, I don’t expect any last minute changes in the women’s Kona qualifiers.

For the men, the situation is a lot more interesting as there are a number of athletes on the start list that sit around the current cutoff of 4.320 points:

  • Daniel Halksworth – 4.820 points
  • Mike Schifferle – 4.320 points
  • Dominik Berger – 4.280 points
  • Bruno Clerbout – 3.560 points
  • Paul Amey – 3.515 points

Bryan Rhodes is currently at 2.400 points, but as he already has five results, he can’t increase his points beyond 4.300, so he’s not able to qualify any more. (In addition to the athletes mentioned, there is Matt Russell who is already qualified.)

Except for Bruno, all these athletes have raced last weekend. A lot of them already have the maximum number of five results which makes it even harder to predict what’s going to happen. Here’s my best “guesstimate”:

  • Daniel should be safe – he’s currently sitting in 6th place, and even if all four of the other athletes move past him (which is very unlikely), he’ll still be 10th and get the final slot. So unless there are any surprise last minute additions to the field, there is no reason for him to race.
  • Mike and Dominik – not sure if they are going to race again and what they will be able to achieve if they do. They probably need some more points, and even 400 should be enough (15th place in Canada).
  • Bruno hasn’t raced a full-distance race since IM France. Unless he has a mechanical or runs into other major issues, he should get enough points to qualify. He needs about 900 points to move past Mike – 8th place is 960 points in Canada.
  • Paul would need a solid number of points to qualify, I’d say at least 1.000. That would require a 7th place finish (1.040 points). I’m not sure if he wants to race Kona that much. If I had to guess, I’d say he doesn’t qualify even he starts in Canada.

To sum up, here are my picks for the final men’s qualifiers:

  • Safe (6): Luke Bell, Brandon Marsh, Bert Jammaer, Stefan Schmidt, David Plese, Daniel Halksworth
  • Looking Good (2): Romain Guillaume (if he accepts his slot), Pedro Gomes
  • Needs to Race in Canada to Qualify (4): Bruno Clerbout, Mike Schifferle, Dominik Berger, and Paul Amey

I guess that two of the last category will race and make enough points. If that’s the case, it would also mean that Joszef Major (currently 9th) drops out of remaining 10 Kona spots. This makes 4.390 the “magic number” to beat for qualifying.

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