IM Louisville and Canada 2011 – Analyzing Results – Four out of four predicted winners!

Last weekend, we had two exciting races finalizing the KPR rankings for 2011. A number of athletes tried to snag some final points, and we’ll have a closer look at the Kona qualifiers in the next few weeks.

This weekend was exciting for Thorsten’s Triathlon Ratings as well: We managed to predict all the winners for this weekend – so we must be doing something right!

IM Louisville

Race Conditions

This year’s race was the fastest one in Louisville – an adjustment of 10:47 leads to a new course rating of 3:31.

Male Results

After a bit of an injury break, Chris McDonald came back with a solid race to win by a few minutes:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:27:36 08:38:56
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:30:35 08:49:35
3 Justin Daerr USA 08:34:35 08:44:37
4 Dave Harju CAN 09:20:01 09:05:03
5 Ivan Albano BRA 09:21:39 09:08:43
6 Bojan Maric SCG 09:56:06 09:55:28
7 Logan Franks USA 10:20:01 09:22:13

Female Results

Nina Kraft overcame some struggles in the final part of the run to become one of the oldest winners of an Ironman:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:38:14 09:19:05
2 Jackie Arendt USA 09:40:28 09:51:02
3 Stephanie Jones USA 09:52:40 10:45:09
4 Donna Phelan USA 10:01:34 10:09:57
5 Terra Castro USA 10:02:40 10:13:49
6 Cindy Lewis USA 10:04:14 n/a
7 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:06:47 10:10:07
8 Hillary Biscay USA 10:09:32 10:04:13
9 Marie Danais CAN 10:22:23 10:21:43

IM Canada

Race Conditions

The conditions in Canada were pretty typical with an adjustment of 4:57, barely changing the course rating to 3:20.

Male Results

Jordan Rapp managed to win his third IM – underscoring that he’s back from his horrible crash:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:28:09 08:26:50
2 Torsten Abel GER 08:41:09 08:46:16
3 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:42:34 08:54:37
4 Christopher Bagg USA 08:47:25 09:08:24
5 Jasper Blake CAN 08:50:30 08:41:43
6 Nigel Gray CAN 08:57:41 09:08:36
7 Matthew Russell USA 08:59:31 09:17:49
8 Trevor Wurtele CAN 09:05:19 09:21:51
9 Scott Tremblay CAN 09:07:03 09:24:05
10 Jason Shortis AUS 09:12:55 08:50:43
11 Ryan Cain CAN 09:16:23 10:47:10
12 Paul Attard   09:17:22 n/a
13 Mike Neill CAN 09:18:55 08:55:07
14 Scott Curry CAN 09:22:30 09:09:12
15 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:23:24 09:05:09
16 Dallas Cain CAN 09:26:44 09:42:03
17 Mathieu Ohalloran   09:34:26 n/a
18 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:35:55 09:30:25
19 Juan Carlos Ramirez USA 09:46:04 09:50:50
20 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 10:00:39 09:13:55
21 Kyle Marcotte CAN 10:09:49 08:59:03
22 Paul Tichelaar   10:34:08 n/a
23 Christopher Baird   11:20:14 n/a

Female Results

On the female side, Mary Beth Ellis also won her third Ironman – in three starts and within 8 weeks! She’s got enough points for a Kona start – hopefully she can recover in time to deliver a good race:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:03:13 09:15:48
2 Kim Loeffler USA 09:34:54 09:41:58
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:37:22 09:34:49
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:46:56 09:54:07
5 Fiona Whitby CAN 10:13:28 10:39:49
6 Haley Cooper USA 10:34:41 10:07:11
7 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:44:42 10:08:15
8 Miranda Alldritt CAN 11:11:24 10:44:50
9 Fernanda Keller BRA 11:26:40 10:24:51

IM Louisville 2011 – Predictions

Just a quick post without an accompanying details post to get my predictions out before the race starts. I’m playing a bit of a catch-up with upcoming races, and I’m planning a few things for Kona, so it’s quite busy right now.

Previous Results

From a time perspective, IM Louisville (rated 1:32) is pretty similar to IM Canada (3:08). Conditions are usually pretty hot on race day, so the resulting times are relatively slow.

Last year’s race was won by Paul Ambrose (8:29) and Rebekah Keat (9:33).

Male Participants

Paul Ambrose is back to defend his title, but my race favorite is Chris McDonald:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:49:02 08:50:33 78
2 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:53:19 08:54:50 92
3 Justin Daerr USA 08:54:07 08:55:38 98
4 Patrick Evoe USA 08:59:08 09:00:40 123
5 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:06:46 09:08:20 164
6 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:11:41 09:13:15 191
7 Dave Harju CAN 09:14:39 09:16:14 213
8 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:17:25 09:19:00 247
9 Tim Snow USA 09:27:12 09:28:49 315
10 Logan Franks USA 09:32:20 09:33:58 349
11 Bojan Maric SCG 10:05:54 10:07:38 569
12 Richard Wygand BRA 10:57:55 10:59:48 764

This race is going to be pretty close, any of the top four or five athletes has a decent shot at winning the race.

Female Participants

Nina Kraft has won the race in 2007 and 2009, so she has to be considered the favorite for 2011. Her last Ironman result is from 2009 however, so her rating has to be taken with a bit of caution. Probably Amy Marsh (coming off a second place in Switzerland) is in a better position to grab another title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:28:34 09:30:11 10
2 Amy Marsh USA 09:29:44 09:31:22 14
3 Jackie Arendt USA 10:00:46 10:02:29 85
4 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:09:32 10:11:16 118
5 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:12:10 10:13:55 132
6 Donna Phelan USA 10:21:03 10:22:49 158
7 Terra Castro USA 10:24:21 10:26:08 166
8 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:25:06 10:26:53 169
9 Marie Danais CAN 10:32:37 10:34:25 191
10 Kelzie Beebe USA 10:36:26 10:38:15 195
11 Jocelyn Wong USA 10:40:03 10:41:53 203
12 Stephanie Jones USA 10:56:48 10:58:40 239

IM Canada 2011 – Predictions (Main Post)

As for all prediction posts, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Canada is one of the oldest IMs – and it will also be one of the bigger fields of the year. Even if it is just a 2000-points race, a lot of athletes trying to make it into the August Kona qualifiers are trying to secure some more points.

With a rating of 2:59, it’s not a fast course. Last year’s winners were Victor Zyemtsev in 8:32 and Meredith Kessler in 9:13.

Male Participants

The highest rated athlete is Jordan Rapp who is back to racing strong after his accident. He has a good shot at winning this race. It might even give him enough points to qualify for Kona, although as far as I know he is not interested in racing there.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:28:42 08:31:32 11
2 Jasper Blake CAN 08:43:12 08:46:07 46
3 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:47:16 08:50:12 75
4 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:18 08:50:14 76
5 Torsten Abel GER 08:48:21 08:51:17 81
6 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:57:08 09:00:07 116
7 Mike Neill CAN 08:57:42 09:00:42 123
8 Christian Brader GER 08:58:59 09:01:59 134
9 Kyle Marcotte CAN 09:01:06 09:04:07 142
10 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:02:40 09:05:41 150
11 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:09:13 09:12:16 184
12 Christopher Bagg USA 09:10:39 09:13:43 192
13 Nigel Gray CAN 09:10:43 09:13:47 194
14 Scott Curry CAN 09:11:41 09:14:45 203
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:19:00 09:22:07 268
16 Matthew Russell USA 09:20:20 09:23:27 278
17 Trevor Wurtele CAN 09:23:49 09:26:57 302
18 Scott Tremblay CAN 09:26:35 09:29:44 317
19 Anthony Toth CAN 09:34:05 09:37:17 365
20 Dallas Cain CAN 09:43:59 09:47:14 441
21 Juan Carlos Ramirez USA 09:52:59 09:56:17 497
22 Ryan Cain CAN 10:48:53 10:52:30 737

There are a lot of athletes on the start list, but with the new WTC Pro license (pay a flat fee to start in any race) it is never clear who is actually foing to race.

Female Participants

Meredith Kessler is back to defend her title, but she faces strong competition in Mary Beth Ellis (two IM starts, two wins) who is trying to get some more points for Kona.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:45 09:18:51 4
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:37:11 09:40:24 36
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:37:59 09:41:12 40
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:45:44 09:49:00 55
5 Uli Bromme USA 09:55:36 09:58:55 75
6 Sara Gross CAN 09:58:44 10:02:04 84
7 Lauren Harrison USA 10:01:07 10:04:28 91
8 Tara Norton CAN 10:06:25 10:09:48 110
9 Emi Shiono JPN 10:06:29 10:09:52 112
10 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:07:21 10:10:44 114
11 Haley Cooper USA 10:10:01 10:13:25 128
12 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:12:17 10:15:41 133
13 Rachel Kiers CAN 10:21:17 10:24:44 160
14 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:29:08 10:32:38 183
15 Kelzie Beebe USA 10:37:35 10:41:08 200
16 Fiona Whitby CAN 10:42:41 10:46:16 211
17 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:47:24 10:51:00 219

IM Canada 2011 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:28:42 08:31:32 11
2 Jasper Blake CAN 08:43:12 08:46:07 46
3 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:47:16 08:50:12 75
4 Jason Shortis AUS 08:47:18 08:50:14 76
5 Torsten Abel GER 08:48:21 08:51:17 81
6 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:57:08 09:00:07 116
7 Mike Neill CAN 08:57:42 09:00:42 123
8 Christian Brader GER 08:58:59 09:01:59 134
9 Kyle Marcotte CAN 09:01:06 09:04:07 142
10 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:02:40 09:05:41 150
11 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:09:13 09:12:16 184
12 Christopher Bagg USA 09:10:39 09:13:43 192
13 Nigel Gray CAN 09:10:43 09:13:47 194
14 Scott Curry CAN 09:11:41 09:14:45 203
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:19:00 09:22:07 268
16 Matthew Russell USA 09:20:20 09:23:27 278
17 Trevor Wurtele CAN 09:23:49 09:26:57 302
18 Scott Tremblay CAN 09:26:35 09:29:44 317
19 Anthony Toth CAN 09:34:05 09:37:17 365
20 Dallas Cain CAN 09:43:59 09:47:14 441
21 Juan Carlos Ramirez USA 09:52:59 09:56:17 497
22 Ryan Cain CAN 10:48:53 10:52:30 737

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:45 09:18:51 4
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:37:11 09:40:24 36
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:37:59 09:41:12 40
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:45:44 09:49:00 55
5 Uli Bromme USA 09:55:36 09:58:55 75
6 Sara Gross CAN 09:58:44 10:02:04 84
7 Lauren Harrison USA 10:01:07 10:04:28 91
8 Tara Norton CAN 10:06:25 10:09:48 110
9 Emi Shiono JPN 10:06:29 10:09:52 112
10 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:07:21 10:10:44 114
11 Haley Cooper USA 10:10:01 10:13:25 128
12 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:12:17 10:15:41 133
13 Rachel Kiers CAN 10:21:17 10:24:44 160
14 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:29:08 10:32:38 183
15 Kelzie Beebe USA 10:37:35 10:41:08 200
16 Fiona Whitby CAN 10:42:41 10:46:16 211
17 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:47:24 10:51:00 219

Results for Jordan Rapp (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:16:45 08:29:06 08:31:32 4
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:13:35 08:25:12 08:32:22 1
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:25:13 08:29:30 08:34:54 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:19:45 08:25:11 08:37:33 3
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 08:35:04 08:39:44 08:45:36 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 08:51:32 08:52:38 08:52:38 5

Results for Jasper Blake (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:48:29 08:52:58 08:46:07 4
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:36:08 08:41:16 08:42:39 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:46:11 08:47:46 08:43:30 4
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:33:58 08:33:07 08:40:16 1
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:50:54 08:50:54 08:50:54 5

Results for Victor Zyemtsev (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:28 08:40:59 08:50:12 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 08:43:56 08:49:03 08:54:19 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:27 09:19:19 08:55:58 47
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:33:32 08:35:05 08:47:53 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:38:26 09:35:46 08:53:49 73
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 08:38:18 08:31:05 08:27:52 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 08:23:29 08:23:29 08:23:29 1

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:47:18 08:49:07 08:50:14 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:55:09 08:50:29 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:42:57 08:49:15 4
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:58:13 08:50:47 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:07:24 08:48:58 11
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 08:59:48 08:43:40 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:27:43 08:38:27 2
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:36:45 08:41:24 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:43:09 08:42:46 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:33:59 08:42:37 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:56:53 08:47:56 38
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:38:10 08:38:10 8

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:38:40 08:45:51 08:51:17 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:42 08:45:24 08:52:59 26
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:39 08:32:26 08:55:42 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:36:38 08:49:41 09:04:39 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:02:07 09:03:15 09:12:35 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:34:05 09:35:49 09:16:45 16
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:14:42 09:13:47 09:02:39 10
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:36:06 08:47:02 08:47:02 11

Results for Bert Jammaer (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:32:26 08:44:22 09:00:07 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:51 09:44:51 09:03:16 58
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:39:36 08:38:14 08:55:22 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:41:13 08:39:07 08:58:53 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 08:54:03 08:51:24 09:02:58 1
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:43:19 10:04:34 09:05:36 38
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 08:59:40 08:57:05 08:51:25 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:35:53 08:36:41 08:49:53 12
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:05:09 09:03:08 08:53:44 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:01:47 08:59:17 08:50:27 45
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:22:48 08:34:20 08:46:43 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:53:16 08:53:03 08:54:40 32
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 08:51:58 08:56:24 08:56:24 6

Results for Mike Neill (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:13:03 09:14:57 09:00:42 7
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:39:40 08:46:52 08:57:19 11
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:11:07 09:08:54 09:00:21 37
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:44:05 08:53:54 08:58:26 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:57:00 08:56:41 08:59:29 26
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 08:53:09 08:58:21 09:00:14 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:47:57 08:48:46 09:00:49 21
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:55:36 08:57:54 09:05:02 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:52:29 08:50:01 09:08:06 31
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 08:57:44 08:50:15 09:19:03 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 09:57:42 09:56:21 09:56:21 22

Results for Christian Brader (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:06:09 09:17:41 09:01:59 7
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:08:19 09:09:49 08:59:59 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:33:43 08:36:22 08:58:40 16
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:32:41 08:41:12 09:01:31 2
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:25:30 08:31:35 09:04:24 4
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 10:23:03 10:46:25 09:22:58 24
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:14:42 09:10:10 09:09:41 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:57:39 08:55:30 09:09:36 26
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:56:35 08:56:39 09:12:06 2
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:21:47 09:19:00 09:15:10 12
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:03:56 10:09:32 09:14:17 20
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:50:08 08:49:49 08:58:12 19
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:58:10 08:57:43 09:01:02 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:06:16 09:07:07 09:02:35 35
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:51:09 09:05:05 08:59:53 12
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:56:01 08:53:32 08:53:32 37

Results for Kyle Marcotte (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:40:45 08:49:24 09:04:07 5
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:58:34 09:03:08 09:08:23 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:35:48 09:35:28 09:09:51 59
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:44:30 08:49:43 09:02:49 6
IM Canada 2007-08-26 08:55:19 08:56:26 09:07:31 6
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:46:42 09:55:42 09:11:37 32
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:54:41 08:53:48 08:53:20 4
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:54:16 08:57:03 08:53:02 7
IM Canada 2005-08-29 08:49:59 08:48:47 08:48:47 7

Results for Trevor Delsaut (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 08:54:59 08:59:30 09:05:41 6
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:41:57 08:53:13 09:07:30 9
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:32:24 08:43:06 09:12:59 5
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:33:27 08:51:03 09:28:47 7
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:27:44 09:43:07 10:02:21 19
IM France 2008-06-22 10:16:31 10:21:54 10:21:54 20

Results for Bryan Rhodes (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:18:40 10:23:49 09:12:16 25
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:35 08:53:16 08:52:21 23
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:30:12 08:35:16 08:52:10 1
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:26:52 08:42:17 08:56:12 3
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:36:07 09:43:00 08:59:27 23
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:46:38 08:48:13 08:47:12 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:59:13 08:56:43 08:46:50 41
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:00:18 08:52:47 08:42:33 6
IM UK 2005-08-21 08:42:11 08:29:41 08:35:35 1
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:42:01 08:42:01 08:42:01 3

Results for Christopher Bagg (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:48:11 08:56:57 09:13:43 8
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:31:13 09:36:03 09:36:03 22

Results for Nigel Gray (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:05:39 09:10:16 09:13:47 11
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:35:48 09:35:28 09:14:51 59
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:50:35 08:55:51 09:08:33 9
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:55:10 09:56:05 09:13:51 77
IM Canada 2007-08-26 08:57:54 08:59:01 08:53:26 9
IM Canada 2006-08-27 11:22:36 11:21:29 08:48:35 31
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:56:03 08:55:50 08:48:35 35
IM Canada 2005-08-29 08:42:15 08:41:04 08:41:04 3

Results for Scott Curry (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2011-05-01 09:06:31 09:15:54 09:14:45 7
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:50:44 08:54:19 09:14:33 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:19:39 09:22:32 09:18:31 52
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:48:57 08:57:44 09:17:40 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:20:09 09:24:54 09:22:47 16
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:04:45 09:10:00 09:22:17 7
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:52:36 08:57:54 09:25:52 11
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:18:50 09:24:18 09:34:16 8
IM Florida 2007-11-03 10:30:03 10:49:12 09:38:15 51
IM Canada 2007-08-26 11:32:04 11:33:31 09:02:48 31
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:45:12 08:53:15 09:02:48 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:55:57 08:55:04 09:08:32 5
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:41:50 09:26:17 09:26:17 12

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:18:12 09:24:36 09:22:07 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:25:39 09:29:29 09:21:24 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:11:43 09:14:34 09:18:32 48
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:13 09:20:57 09:20:21 51
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:13:56 09:19:26 09:20:03 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:41 09:19:33 09:20:25 48
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:17 09:17:03 09:21:15 62
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:26:02 09:26:02 09:26:02 21

Results for Matthew Russell (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:26:26 09:28:23 09:23:27 9
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:03:06 09:10:37 09:21:29 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:09:15 09:22:54 09:28:03 21
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:28:58 09:33:42 09:33:42 13

Results for Trevor Wurtele (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:54:49 09:03:42 09:26:57 12
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:33:44 09:29:02 09:31:26 13
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:26:03 09:30:51 09:31:57 18
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:03:52 09:09:06 09:32:11 6
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:52:06 08:57:54 09:38:02 15
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:01:34 09:06:57 09:49:01 14
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:29:11 09:30:22 10:03:23 17
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 10:08:42 10:12:16 10:14:47 22
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:44:45 09:43:47 10:15:55 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:10:31 10:10:36 10:35:15 6
IM France 2005-06-19 11:08:16 11:08:16 11:08:16 16

Results for Scott Tremblay (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:23:36 09:29:44 09:29:44 10

Results for Anthony Toth (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:46:57 09:00:03 09:37:17 10
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:49:44 08:58:32 09:44:16 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:42:01 10:39:26 09:53:59 82
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:02:45 09:07:21 09:45:01 9
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:25:11 09:31:20 09:53:54 31
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:28:22 09:34:01 09:59:11 24
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:06:41 10:07:37 10:06:11 80
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:59:02 10:00:50 10:05:47 21
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:37:49 09:41:12 10:07:27 17
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:04:21 10:03:22 10:19:54 22
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:56:42 10:56:26 10:30:42 94
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:05:22 10:04:00 10:04:00 24

Results for Dallas Cain (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:31:59 09:41:29 09:47:14 21
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:43:19 09:52:02 09:48:38 15
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:31:29 09:44:55 09:47:37 25
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:19:14 09:24:37 09:48:31 10
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:18:09 09:23:42 09:58:47 22
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:15:13 10:16:10 10:16:44 83
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:50:29 09:51:43 10:17:07 20
IM Canada 2005-08-29 11:03:39 11:02:09 11:02:09 29

Results for Juan Carlos Ramirez (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:37:55 09:44:12 09:56:17 13
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:03:03 10:13:04 10:01:28 26
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:41:34 09:46:30 09:55:32 24
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:46:00 09:51:49 10:01:09 30
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:11:53 10:13:10 10:09:15 29
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:01:58 10:01:58 10:01:58 19

Results for Ryan Cain (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 10:50:16 10:52:30 10:52:30 15

Results for Mary Beth Ellis (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:18:55 09:30:44 09:18:51 1
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:43:34 09:06:39 09:06:39 1

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:28:49 09:40:24 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:07:09 09:43:02 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:22:58 09:36:14 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:32:18 09:41:13 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:42:10 09:46:10 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:50:43 09:50:43 7

Results for Mackenzie Madison (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:24:11 09:38:12 09:41:12 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:34:51 09:44:24 09:44:24 3

Results for Kim Loeffler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 09:53:08 09:58:09 09:49:00 4
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:20:04 09:27:49 09:47:21 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:21:26 09:38:48 09:51:32 3
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:30:57 09:41:19 09:54:23 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:32:00 10:29:28 09:57:21 36
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:33:54 09:40:09 09:49:12 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:54:55 09:54:25 09:51:26 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:15 10:01:11 09:50:34 22
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:33:43 09:38:00 09:47:26 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:48:40 09:45:57 09:50:33 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:16:39 10:16:44 09:52:30 11
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:30:18 09:30:04 09:37:13 8
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 09:49:44 09:44:51 09:44:51 2

Results for Uli Bromme (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:44:10 09:57:46 09:58:55 11
IM St. George 2011-05-07 10:10:48 10:12:28 09:59:17 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:31:22 09:45:34 09:53:41 9
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:46:19 09:56:03 09:58:30 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:47:44 10:01:33 10:01:33 10

Results for Sara Gross (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:42:08 10:47:34 10:02:04 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:44:46 09:59:18 09:54:37 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:10 10:05:49 09:53:47 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:41:31 09:47:18 09:51:40 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:03:45 10:09:39 09:52:33 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:24:41 09:41:51 09:48:26 7
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:43:34 09:44:47 09:50:05 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:24:06 09:36:07 09:51:44 4
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:33:09 09:45:19 09:58:26 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:12:35 10:11:35 10:07:42 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:03:55 10:02:33 10:02:33 6

Results for Lauren Harrison (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:46:22 09:54:29 10:04:28 10
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:33:53 09:48:09 10:08:17 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:00:16 10:09:14 10:18:21 7
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:14:00 10:19:12 10:25:39 11
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:35:45 10:36:44 10:36:44 42

Results for Tara Norton (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:20:44 10:31:03 10:09:48 13
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 10:11:08 10:16:13 10:06:57 6
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:17:37 10:15:59 10:05:33 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:59:42 10:04:47 10:03:49 5
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:13:26 10:13:31 10:03:40 7
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:43:46 09:59:35 10:01:54 4
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:13:19 10:10:23 10:02:16 3
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:35:45 09:40:58 10:00:52 6
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:41:03 09:41:57 10:04:51 12
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:32:50 09:45:02 10:09:41 5
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:12:08 10:09:53 10:15:39 2
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:11:27 10:11:32 10:17:24 10
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:25:40 10:20:58 10:19:12 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:05:48 10:05:33 10:18:27 28
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:36:06 10:30:50 10:25:37 11
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:19:56 10:19:56 10:19:56 8

Results for Emi Shiono (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:28:57 10:32:12 10:09:52 36
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:01:13 09:58:48 10:03:43 18
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:54:17 10:05:25 10:05:00 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:57:04 09:56:43 10:04:53 19
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:23:26 09:32:05 10:07:37 3
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:04:25 10:05:21 10:21:29 28
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:13:56 10:11:06 10:30:09 33
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:08:41 11:08:25 10:43:09 54
IM Korea 2005-08-28 10:23:07 10:16:54 10:16:54 2

Results for Jacqui Gordon (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 10:07:22 10:09:27 10:10:44 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:27:20 09:35:11 10:10:59 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 10:09:42 10:28:34 10:19:21 9
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:08:19 10:08:24 10:17:02 6
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:46:26 09:57:40 10:18:51 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:20:49 10:20:27 10:23:51 27
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:31:53 10:31:22 10:24:44 6
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:32:32 10:38:15 10:22:36 15
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:51:46 10:09:45 10:16:00 15
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:29:13 10:30:32 10:19:42 14
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:08:41 10:05:52 10:05:52 29

Results for Haley Cooper (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 09:56:21 10:02:50 10:13:25 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:42:02 09:50:44 10:15:45 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:23:19 10:20:49 10:20:43 34
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:53:35 09:58:37 10:20:42 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:51:11 09:56:53 10:25:47 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:45:59 09:52:22 10:33:49 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:23:33 11:23:09 10:59:57 45
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:08:04 10:14:00 10:51:52 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:38:15 10:39:14 11:09:37 45
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 10:42:57 10:44:53 11:28:34 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 12:26:37 12:26:43 12:26:43 23

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:56:28 10:03:18 10:15:41 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:06:29 10:14:53 10:20:40 12
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 10:16:48 10:20:58 10:24:21 9
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:31:57 10:29:25 10:29:25 35

Results for Rachel Kiers (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:16:33 10:31:52 10:24:44 14
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:06:22 10:16:26 10:23:23 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:03:48 10:12:49 10:24:52 8
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:45:26 09:59:12 10:27:59 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:45:04 10:50:32 10:36:01 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:53:43 09:59:26 10:30:53 5
IM Canada 2008-08-24 10:04:47 10:10:48 10:46:39 9
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 11:51:02 11:52:08 11:10:04 57
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:25:05 10:26:23 10:26:23 12

Results for Fernanda Keller (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2011-07-24 11:07:02 11:22:34 10:32:38 12
IM Austria 2011-07-03 10:39:08 11:07:18 10:23:04 12
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:48:03 10:11:49 10:12:48 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:37:44 10:35:10 10:13:06 38
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:54:11 10:08:57 10:08:10 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:43:16 10:42:53 10:07:58 38
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:25:03 10:26:01 09:58:42 39
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:29:29 09:41:35 09:51:54 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:50:35 09:47:51 09:54:52 17
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:44:06 09:57:29 09:57:06 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:51:39 09:58:54 09:56:57 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:10:30 10:10:15 09:55:51 33
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:39:46 09:39:46 09:39:46 2

Results for Kelzie Beebe (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:01:52 10:26:12 10:41:08 8
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 10:44:55 10:58:23 10:58:23 12

Results for Fiona Whitby (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 11:38:06 11:44:00 10:46:16 13
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 10:05:05 10:17:43 10:25:47 6
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:10:58 10:21:07 10:29:15 11
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:34:44 10:44:13 10:34:41 10
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:18:34 10:18:03 10:18:03 4

Results for Miranda Alldritt (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 10:46:46 10:48:59 10:51:00 8
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 12:52:27 13:11:36 10:51:15 8
IM France 2011-06-26 10:56:48 11:02:21 10:51:15 11
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:19:12 10:27:47 10:49:48 14
IM St. George 2011-05-07 11:51:45 11:53:42 10:52:59 8
IM Canada 2010-08-29 12:47:12 12:59:57 10:42:49 18
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:40:59 10:35:44 10:42:49 7
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:53:01 10:06:58 10:43:50 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 13:39:19 13:47:13 10:49:09 14
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:18:02 10:29:36 10:49:09 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 10:06:24 10:13:00 10:51:45 12
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 10:54:52 10:55:33 10:57:10 12
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:21:23 11:28:09 10:57:25 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:18:14 10:24:16 10:52:00 8
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:21:42 10:27:20 10:57:35 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:43:58 10:44:58 11:04:43 48
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 10:16:31 10:20:08 11:09:47 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 11:15:34 11:14:28 11:23:59 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 11:22:19 11:22:24 11:26:57 19
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:27:13 11:26:56 11:28:53 55
IM Canada 2005-08-29 11:19:15 11:17:43 11:29:55 14
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 11:42:45 11:42:45 11:42:45 5

IM Regensburg 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions on race day in Regensburg were similar to Frankfurt – cold, with some rain. Compared to last year (when it was quite hot), the times were a little bit faster (adjustment of 11:27 this year vs. 6:31 last year), resulting in a new course rating of 8:59.

Male Results

Race favorite Andreas Raelert injured his foot a few days before the race, so he just raced to validate his Kona slot. This allowed Markus Fachbach to win his first IM in front of a number of veteran athletes:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Markus Fachbach GER 08:29:16 08:36:58
2 Stefan Riesen SWI 08:36:54 08:36:47
3 Frank Vytrisal GER 08:37:12 08:47:17
4 Horst Reichel GER 08:42:07 09:30:45
5 Lothar Leder GER 08:45:30 08:52:48
6 Rene Vallant AUT 08:56:50 09:22:59
7 Christian Brader GER 09:06:09 08:48:43
8 Mario De Elias ARG 09:06:20 n/a
9 Daniel Mueller GER 09:07:39 09:31:02
10 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:09:08 09:39:46
11 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:25:50 09:33:57
12 Brian Hadley USA 09:45:23 08:57:10
13 Andreas Raelert GER 10:21:05 08:03:57

Female Results

On the female side, the favorite Mary Beth Ellis won convincingly:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:18:55 08:55:04
2 Annett Kamenz CAN 09:28:23 10:07:12
3 Nicole Leder GER 09:30:27 09:36:03
4 Heidi Jesberger GER 09:32:42 10:01:08
5 Katja Rabe GER 09:44:45 09:51:30
6 Ute Streiter GER 10:20:34 10:17:25
7 Ariane Monticeli BRA 11:03:14 09:48:17
8 Olja Bregar SLO 13:46:56 10:21:04

She couldn’t quite match her blazing fast time from Austria four weeks ago, but is the newest member of the women’s TOP 10 in fourth place.

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