Analysis

I’ve just updated the Top 10 Ratings page (which also contains the top rated athletes in each of the disciplines, and all Ironman-distance results of the athletes). Please note that this is an updated version of the data in my 2013 TriRating Report, since releasing the report I’ve been working a bit more on my rating algorithm.

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:21:43	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	18
2	Timo Bracht	GER	08:22:39	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	20
3	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:22:46	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	10
4	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:24:13	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	7
5	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:24:36	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	12
6	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:24:51	IM Germany on 2013-07-07	14
7	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	08:25:19	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	17
8	Bart Aernouts	BEL	08:25:26	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	4
9	Andreas Raelert	GER	08:26:05	IM Western Australia on 2013-12-08	11
10	Dirk Bockel	LUX	08:26:22	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	9

2013 was clearly a transition year at the top of the male athletes. Only one athlete in the top 10 (Kona winner Frederik Van Lierde) has had a great year and managed to improve his rating.

My new #1 rated athlete is Eneko Llanos. He’s managed to win two regional championships (Melbourne and Frankfurt) and also had a decent finish to the season (11th in Kona and 3rd in Cozumel), already securing his Kona slot for 2014. It’ll be interesting to see if he focuses his 2014 season on another (final?) shot at winning Kona.

Timo Bracht in 2nd and Craig Alexander in 3rd are athletes close the end of their career. Timo is a very consistent performer – the last time he was out of the top 10 in Kona was in 2008 when he was DQ’d after reaching the finish in 5th place. Craig has said good-bye to Ironman racing after his disappointing 21st place in Kona.

Sebastian Kienle didn’t have a great start to 2013 but managed to turn things around in time for the big races. He was injured and sick for most of the first half of the year, and considering his preparation had a great race in Frankfurt (9th place in a stacked field). Then he defended his 70.3 title in Las Vegas and finished on the Kona podium.

As already mentioned, Frederik Van Lierde is the only top 10 athlete who improved his rating with two great wins in France and Kona. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the added pressure in 2014, but I’m sure with the help of his coach Luc Van Lierde he’ll prepare well.

Marino Vanhoenacker (6th), Andreas Raelert (9th) and Dirk Bockel (10th) have to think hard about their plans for 2014. They’ve struggled with injuries, didn’t score any Kona points, and finished the year with frustrating DNFs (Marino in Cozumel and Andreas in Western Australia) or didn’t recover in time for another IM (Dirk with a slight hip injury). Maybe they should regroup in 2014 before re-focusing on Kona in 2015.

Faris Al-Sultan (7th) seems to always be in the mix in Kona, but then can’t quite hold on to his great position on the run. However, he seems to still enjoy racing, and he’s still good enough to win almost any Ironman race. But with the attractive races in the European summer I just can’t see him focus 100% on Kona and risk a full season for another shot at winning Kona.

Bart Aernouts in 8th place has developed into the top Ironman runner: He’s posted the fastest run times in Kona for two years, and also had a great 2:37 at IM France. He continues to improve year by year, and should be a podium contender in Kona 2014.

Compared to last year, a few athletes have dropped from the Top 10:

• Chris McCormack (still in 11th place) probably missed his last shot at a good Kona result when he was forced to withdraw from Kona 2013 with Epstein-Barr virus. I’d be surprised to still see him race at a Top-10-level in 2014.
• David Dellow (now in 15th place) had some bad luck, catching an infection just before Kona. He has recovered and already scored some Kona points by finishing 3rd in Western Australia.
• Cam Brown is now in 13th place. He was finally beaten by Bevan Docherty in IM New Zealand, then had a disappointing run at Challenge Roth. It’ll be interesting to see how his 2014 season will be, he’s already had some good results in 70.3s.

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:10:46	IM Florida on 2013-11-02	9
2	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:12:28	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	15
3	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:12:35	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	13
4	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:14:27	IM Florida on 2013-11-02	13
5	Liz Blatchford	GBR	09:17:09	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	3
6	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:22:49	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	10
7	Julia Gajer	GER	09:22:49	IM Arizona on 2013-11-17	5
8	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:24:12	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	15
9	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:25:03	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	3
10	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:25:27	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12	21

In the women’s ranking, we have a clear #1 athlete: No one can argue that Mirinda Carfrae is currently the best female Pro. She was leading the rankings last year, and she convincingly confirmed the top spot by winning Kona in a fantastic way.

I’m not sure how Caroline Steffen judges her year. She’s posted great results (winning Roth and MetaMan), but couldn’t deliver the Kona performance she was hoping for and had to fight very hard for “only” a 5th place finish. There will be some changes to her 2014 season after leaving Team TBB and Brett Sutton. She has just announced that she’ll be coached by Chris McCormack.

My new #3 is Rachel Joyce. She managed her season very well, with two great results in Texas and Kona, and a slight injury in between. She used her fitness to win in Cozumel, so she already secured her Kona slot for 2014. She’s been making steady progress from year to year, but there is not much more room!

Yvonne Van Vlerken remains in 4th place, but while in 2012 that ranking was mainly based on a great Florida race, she’s had a solid year of good results (and no DNFs) in 2013. In all her long-distance races she was in contention for the win, and – also having secured her Kona slot already – she seems to have a solid base for a great 2014 season. 

With Liz Blatchford (5th), Julia Gajer (7th) and Jodie Swallow (9th) we have three athletes new to long-distance racing. Liz switched over from short-course racing, qualified late for Kona and then snagged the final spot on the podium. Julia had raced very fast in Roth in the past years, in 2013 she also raced two Ironman races, winning her first IM title in Arizona. Jodie seems to have finally overcome her struggles and is healthy enough for long-distance training and racing. After three increasingly better IMs she struggled with racing in the Kona heat.

Mary Beth Ellis (6th) had a pretty good year until she broke her collarbone close to Kona. She couldn’t fully recover, and had to DNF. While she continues to race for Team TBB, she has switched coaches to Siri Lindley – I hope that this will help her find an extra gear in Kona.

Linsey Corbin (8th) was pretty much a “no show” in 2013. She struggled with injuries, but managed to pull off a miraculous 10th place in Kona on a long run of just 9 miles. She scrapped plans of racing another Ironman in 2013, so it looks as if she wants to take the time to properly heal this time, and then come back strong for 2014.

Gina Crawford (10th) has had 6 Ironman-distance finishes in 2013 and continues to post one solid result after another. She has signed with Matt Dixon of Purplepatch in her quest for a top Kona result.

Athletes that have dropped out of the top 10:

• Last year’s Kona winner Leanda Cave (now in 11th) was dealing with injuries all year. She finally pulled the pin on a frustrating season, but it remains to be seen if she still has the fire in her to come back in 2014. As a former Kona winner, she just has to validate her Kona slot by completing an Ironman race, and this means she can be a bit more relaxed in planning her season.
• Sonja Tajsich (unrated after a string of injury-related DNFs)
• Amy Marsh (now #22 after two races where she struggled on the run)
• Rebekah Keat (now #18 after a Kona DNF – she was racing very well in 70.3s towards the end of 2013, but doesn’t seem interested to race IMs right now)

Note: This is an excerpt from my 2013 TriRating Report which has a lot more information about the 2013 long distance season. You can download it for free using this link.

In other sports – such as golf – the main way of ranking athletes is by the amount of prize money they make. With all the data from the qualifying races, I’ve built one for Ironman Triathlons. It is also a convenient way of putting men and women in the same list.

Here are the 20 athletes – both from the men and women – that have earned the most prize money in „official”, full-distance Ironman races in the Kona 2013 qualifying cycle. This year, I’ve added the Kona money makers and the changes in the rankings the Kona money makes:

Rank	Name	IM	Kona	Total	Rank
1	Mary Beth Ellis	55.000			6
2	Eneko Llanos	50.000			7
3	Jodie Swallow	35.000			10
4	Erika Csomor	34.250			11
5	Luke Bell	30.000			16
	Corinne Abraham	30.000			16
7	Camilla Pedersen	25.000			21
8	Jessie Donavan	22.000			25
9	Liz Blatchford	20.500	40.000	60.500	5
10	Uli Bromme	20.000			26
	Ben Hoffman	20.000			26
	Paul Amey	20.000			26
	Bas Diederen	20.000			26
	Ronnie Schildknecht	20.000			26
15	Meredith Kessler	18.750	14.000	32.750	14
16	Amanda Stevens	18.000			32
17	Ivan Rana	17.750	16.000	33.750	13
18	Gina Crawford	17.500	11.000	28.500	18
	Yvonne Van Vlerken	17.500	22.500	40.000	8
20	Jan Raphael	17.250			33
24	Frederik Van Lierde	15.000	120.000	135.000	1
	Luke McKenzie	15.000	60.000	75.000	3
	Timothy O’Donnell	15.000	19.000	34.000	12
	Timo Bracht	15.000	11.000	26.000	20
	Rachel Joyce	15.000	60.000	75.000	3
	Linsey Corbin	15.000	10.000	25.000	21
45	Michelle Vesterby	10.500	12.500	23.000	24
59	James Cunnama	8.500	22.500	31.000	15
68	Bart Aernouts	7.500	12.500	20.000	26
	Caroline Steffen	7.500	19.000	26.500	19
	Caitlin Snow	7.500	16.000	23.500	23
99	Faris Al-Sultan	5.000	10.000	15.000	35
130	Tyler Butterfield	3.000	14.000	17.000	34
141	Mirinda Carfrae	2.750	120.000	122.750	2
	Sebastian Kienle		40.000	40.000	8

As last year, 70.3s and non-WTC races are not included.

Here are some observations:

• Mary Beth Ellis leads the non-Kona list (winning in Cozumel, France and Mont Tremblant) followed by Eneko Llanos (winning the regional Championships in Melbourne and Frankfurt). These two have made significantly more money than the leader last year (Caroline Steffen with 30.000).
• Once you include Kona money, the list is dominated by the top 3 Kona athletes: Frederik, Rinny, Rachel, Luke, and Liz. Sebastian Kienle is “only” 8th, but he did not earn any other IM money.
• The conclusion from previous years is still valid: Outside of a good Kona payday, it is next to impossible to make a living on Ironman prize money.

Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn

Note: This is an excerpt from my 2013 TriRating Report which has a lot more information about the 2013 long distance season. You can download it for free using this link.

When listing the top results, there are two different ways of presenting them: One is by the „clock time“ as posted on the race results. This is pretty interesting by itself, but normalized times (adjusting for a fast or slow course and conditions on race day) are usually a bit more indicative of how good the performance really was (and not on how fast a course the race was occurring).

This post contains the Top 3 results (as per clock time) and Top 3 performances in each of the legs.

Swim

Top 3 Male Performances of 2013

Dylan McNeice’s results show why he my the new top-rated swimmer: All of his four swims in IM- distance races made it into the top 10, and his two best swims are the #1 and #2 performances:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Dylan McNeice	00:42:59	00:47:56	Challenge Wanaka on 2013-01-19
2	Dylan McNeice	00:43:00	00:47:00	Challenge Taiwan on 2013-05-04
3	Todd Skipworth	00:45:53	00:50:10	Challenge Taiwan on 2013-05-04

Fastest 3 Male Times of 2013

The best male swim times this year were posted in Austria, I’m not aware of any reports that the course was short:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Bart Colpaert	00:47:22	00:42:54	IM Austria on 2013-06-30
2	Santi Pellejero Gacía	00:47:23	00:42:55	IM Austria on 2013-06-30
3	Daniel Halksworth	00:47:12	00:43:59	IM UK on 2013-08-04

Top 3 Female Performances of 2013

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Celine Schaerer	00:47:39	00:52:38	IM Switzerland on 2013-07-28
2	Jodie Swallow	00:48:02	00:46:09	IM Germany on 2013-07-07
3	Meredith Kessler	00:48:14	00:47:37	IM New Zealand on 2013-03-02

Fastest 3 Female Times of 2013

Jodie was a minute slower than Amanda Stevens last year, but her time from Germany was still the fastest this year:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Jodie Swallow	00:48:02	00:46:09	IM Germany on 2013-07-07
2	Haley Chura	00:48:35	00:46:21	IM Brasil on 2013-05-26
3	Meredith Kessler	00:48:14	00:47:37	IM New Zealand on 2013-03-02

Bike

Top 3 Male Performances of 2013

As in 2012 Andy Starykowicz’ bike leg from IM Florida was the best bike performance of the year, but the difference to the next spots is much smaller than if you just looked at the “raw” times:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Andrew Starykowicz	04:24:20	04:02:17	IM Florida on 2013-11-02
2	Andrew Starykowicz	04:24:37	04:21:50	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
3	Luke McKenzie	04:25:13	04:22:25	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12

Fastest 3 Male Times of 2013

Of course Andy Strykowicz’s new “world record” at IM Florida was the fastest time of the year:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Andrew Starykowicz	04:24:20	04:02:17	IM Florida on 2013-11-02
2	Konstantin Bachor	04:26:44	04:14:16	Challenge Barcelona on 2013-10-06
3	Christophe Bastie	04:37:44	04:14:34	IM Florida on 2013-11-02

Top 3 Female Performances of 2013

As in 2012 Caroline had the best bike performance of the year:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Caroline Steffen	04:51:32	04:49:38	MetaMan on 2013-08-31
2	Yvonne Van Vlerken	04:52:16	04:39:35	Challenge Roth on 2013-07-14
3	Eva Wutti	04:54:26	04:39:58	IM Copenhagen on 2013-08-18

Fastest 3 Female Times of 2013

IM Florida almost saw a new “world bike record” on the women’s side as well – Yvonne missed Caroline’s best from Melbourne 2012 by just 20 seconds:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Yvonne Van Vlerken	05:00:55	04:35:49	IM Florida on 2013-11-02
2	Mareen Hufe	05:04:42	04:39:17	IM Florida on 2013-11-02
3	Yvonne Van Vlerken	04:52:16	04:39:35	Challenge Roth on 2013-07-14

Run

Top 3 Male Performances of 2013

In 2013 we saw some fantastic runs, but I don’t think that too many people would have listed Tim Berkel’s 2:44 from Cairns as the best run performance of the year. However, you have to consider that there were only two more sub-3h performances on that day – by Chris McCormack and Jason Shortis, both more than ten minutes slower than Tim!

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Tim Berkel	02:41:35	02:44:24	IM Cairns on 2013-06-01
2	Bart Aernouts	02:44:24	02:44:03	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
3	Bart Aernouts	02:45:12	02:37:01	IM France on 2013-06-23

Fastest 3 Male Times of 2013

The fastest run times come from a number of different courses. The two 2:37 marathon were the fastest times we’ve seen in the past years (and on mostly legitimate courses at that). The fastest time I’m aware of is a 2:35 by Peter Reid in Austria 1999 – on a run course even Peter admits was short.

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Bart Aernouts	02:45:12	02:37:01	IM France on 2013-06-23
2	Victor Del Corral	02:45:27	02:37:29	IM Florida on 2013-11-02
3	Andreas Raelert	02:45:17	02:40:07	IM Austria on 2013-06-30

Top 3 Female Performances of 2013

The run results are dominated by Kona results, indicating that all athletes gave their absolute best in the race that matters most. Of course, Rinny had the best Kona run and also the best run performance of the year:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Mirinda Carfrae	02:51:00	02:50:38	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
2	Caitlin Snow	02:59:16	02:58:53	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
3	Kristin Moeller	03:01:56	02:58:37	IM Lanzarote on 2013-05-18

Fastest 3 Female Times of 2013

Rinny had the fastest 2013 run by quite a large margin:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Mirinda Carfrae	02:51:00	02:50:38	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
2	Ashley Clifford	03:05:31	02:56:35	IM Florida on 2013-11-02
3	Kristin Moeller	03:02:17	02:57:13	IM Germany on 2013-07-07

Note: This is an excerpt from my 2013 TriRating Report which has a lot more information about the 2013 long distance season. You can download it for free using this link.

By adjusting for a fast or slow course and conditions on race day, I’m able to compare finishing times from different courses. Therefore, my list of the top performances of the year is a bit more indicative of how good the performance really was (and not on how fast a course the race was occurring).

TOP 10 Male Results

This year, Dirk Bockel posted the fastest time and – according to my calculations – also the best performance.

Only Frederik Van Lierde has two of the top 10 performances (his wins in France and Kona), and only Kona has three results in the top 10 showing that even with the slower times it is the race with the best field.

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Dirk Bockel	08:15:34	07:52:01	Challenge Roth on 2013-07-14
2	Frederik Van Lierde	08:17:41	08:12:29	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
3	Luke McKenzie	08:20:33	08:15:19	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
4	Eneko Llanos	08:20:56	07:59:58	IM Germany on 2013-07-07
5	Frederik Van Lierde	08:21:24	08:08:59	IM France on 2013-06-23
6	Ronnie Schildknecht	08:22:29	08:11:24	IM South Africa on 2013-04-14
7	Bevan Docherty	08:24:14	08:15:35	IM New Zealand on 2013-03-02
8	Sebastian Kienle	08:24:41	08:19:24	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
9	Timothy O’Donnell	08:24:51	08:01:32	IM Brasil on 2013-05-26
10	Bart Aernouts	08:24:58	08:12:28	IM France on 2013-06-23

TOP 10 Female Results

Undoubtedly, Rinny’s Kona win with a course-record time is the best performance of the year.

Caroline Steffen had three results in the top 10, and five of the best performances were delivered in Kona:

Rank	Name	Normalized Time	Actual Time	Race
1	Mirinda Carfrae	08:57:52	08:52:14	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
2	Rachel Joyce	09:01:03	08:49:14	IM Texas on 2013-05-18
3	Rachel Joyce	09:03:09	08:57:28	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
4	Caroline Steffen	09:06:33	08:40:35	Challenge Roth on 2013-07-14
5	Liz Blatchford	09:09:20	09:03:35	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
6	Yvonne Van Vlerken	09:10:19	09:04:34	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
7	Eva Wutti	09:11:30	08:37:36	IM Copenhagen on 2013-08-18
8	Yvonne Van Vlerken	09:12:38	08:46:22	Challenge Roth on 2013-07-14
9	Caroline Steffen	09:14:57	09:09:09	IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12
10	Caroline Steffen	09:16:00	09:13:57	MetaMan on 2013-08-31

Photo Credits: Sebastian Kuhn and Jay Prasuhn

Race Conditions

Conditions in Western Australia seemed to have been pretty good: An adjustment of 16:28 was the fastest race since the record-breaking year of 2007. The conditions of both the bike and the run were fast, resulting in almost a new women’s course record.

Male Race Results

Pre-race favorite Andreas Raelert had another frustrating DNF (apparently the same problems as in Hawaii), while home-boy Luke Bell also didn’t finish. After being sick in Kona, David Dellow had a was just a little bit off. But you have to have a solid day to win an Ironman, as there are always a few athletes with a fantastic day. This time, it was Jeremy Jurkiewicz: He is usually a stellar runner (again posting the fastest run-split), but this time he was already leading after T2!

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA	00:47:03	04:29:17	02:48:18	08:08:16	-11:13
2	Markus Thomschke	GER	00:53:17	04:27:16	02:51:23	08:16:01	-25:32
3	David Dellow	AUS	00:48:16	04:32:34	02:54:26	08:19:10	08:17
4	Todd Israel	AUS	00:49:43	04:36:07	02:52:18	08:22:39	-24:18
5	Matty White	AUS	00:53:13	04:27:14	03:01:46	08:25:29	-15:27
6	Matt Burton	AUS	00:54:16	04:25:25	03:01:57	08:25:42	n/a
7	Alex Reithmeier	AUS	00:48:19	04:36:35	03:05:59	08:34:53	n/a
8	Guy Crawford	NZL	00:48:14	04:32:03	03:12:42	08:36:31	-21:45
9	Benjamin Williams	USA	00:53:33	04:48:43	02:55:26	08:41:19	n/a
10	Joshua Rix	AUS	00:49:49	04:33:39	03:15:05	08:42:43	-06:54
11	Eduardo Sturla	ARG	00:54:23	04:41:30	03:06:56	08:47:00	15:22
12	Jimmy Johnsen	DEN	00:49:57	04:52:36	03:08:43	08:55:34	29:14
13	Timothy Molesworth	AUS	01:11:23	04:58:14	02:59:09	09:14:30	n/a
14	Johan Borg	AUS	00:53:15	04:39:28	03:54:37	09:31:15	37:27

Female Race Results

The run carried the day on the women’s side as well: Elizabeth Lyles ran through the field, and posted a sub-9h result to win the race in front of German Mareen Hufe (leading into T2) and Lisa Marangon who was leading the race in the early parts of the bike:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	00:57:11	04:58:21	03:00:37	08:59:44	-18:56
2	Mareen Hufe	GER	00:59:49	04:47:53	03:16:24	09:08:00	-12:27
3	Lisa Marangon	AUS	00:54:10	04:56:20	03:24:29	09:19:29	-36:54
4	Michelle Bremer	NZL	00:59:41	04:58:20	03:24:00	09:25:58	00:25
5	Melanie Burke	NZL	01:05:08	04:59:29	03:17:43	09:27:08	-27:38
6	Erin Furness	NZL	00:59:52	05:10:48	03:17:57	09:33:20	-33:47
7	Michelle Duffield	AUS	00:59:53	05:16:52	03:21:45	09:43:12	n/a
8	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	01:05:03	05:20:32	03:41:20	10:11:21	n/a

Photo Credit: Ironman.com