Update July 11th: Daniela Ryf is a thrilling late addition to the women’s field. With her in the race I have recalculated my odds as well.
Update July 9th: Unfortunately, Meredith Kessler has to take care of an injury that was slowing her down in this season and won’t be racing Roth. Get better soon, MBK! I’ve also crossed out Susie Cheetham who announced a while ago that she won’t be able to race.
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2005 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 07:58:45 | Belinda Granger (AUS) | 09:14:06 |
| 2006 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 08:00:52 | Joanna Lawn (NZL) | 09:01:17 |
| 2007 | Chris McCormack (AUS) | 07:54:23 | Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) | 08:51:55 |
| 2008 | Patrick Vernay (NCL) | 08:09:34 | Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) | 08:45:48 |
| 2009 | Michael Goehner (GER) | 07:55:53 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:31:59 |
| 2010 | Rasmus Henning (DEN) | 07:52:36 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:19:13 |
| 2011 | Andreas Raelert (GER) | 07:41:33 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:18:13 |
| 2012 | James Cunnama (ZAF) | 07:59:59 | Rachel Joyce (GBR) | 08:45:04 |
| 2013 | Dirk Bockel (LUX) | 07:52:01 | Caroline Steffen (SUI) | 08:40:35 |
| 2014 | Timo Bracht (GER) | 07:56:00 | Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) | 08:38:53 |
| 2015 | Nils Frommhold (GER) | 07:51:28 | Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) | 08:50:53 |
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 00:47:33 | 04:09:30 | 02:51:47 | 07:51:28 |
| 2 | Timo Bracht | GER | 00:47:37 | 04:20:42 | 02:45:33 | 07:56:31 |
| 3 | David Dellow | AUS | 00:47:35 | 04:20:24 | 02:48:12 | 07:59:28 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Yvonne Van Vlerken | NED | 00:54:46 | 04:47:34 | 03:05:43 | 08:50:53 |
| 2 | Carrie Lester | AUS | 00:52:09 | 04:47:43 | 03:09:50 | 08:53:09 |
| 3 | Anja Beranek | GER | 00:49:20 | 04:47:58 | 03:14:55 | 08:55:19 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 07:41:33 | Andreas Raelert | 2011-07-10 |
| Swim | overall | 00:45:57 | Pete Jacobs | 2009-07-12 |
| Bike | overall | 04:09:13 | Andrew Starykowicz | 2015-07-12 |
| Run | overall | 02:39:43 | Rasmus Henning | 2010-07-18 |
| Total | female | 08:18:13 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-07-10 |
| Swim | female | 00:47:27 | Ute Mueckel | 2005-06-24 |
| Bike | female | 04:36:33 | Chrissie Wellington | 2010-07-18 |
| Run | female | 02:44:35 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-07-10 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:49.
Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Finishers | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2005 | 18:02 | 01:08 | 13:32 | 05:29 | 28 | 18:02 | 01:08 | 13:32 | 05:29 |
| 2006 | 12:19 | 01:18 | 06:23 | 03:08 | 41 | 15:10 | 01:13 | 09:57 | 04:18 |
| 2007 | 23:37 | 00:54 | 10:36 | 07:18 | 35 | 17:59 | 01:07 | 10:10 | 05:18 |
| 2008 | 21:38 | 01:58 | 06:55 | 08:02 | 40 | 18:54 | 01:20 | 09:21 | 05:59 |
| 2009 | 26:32 | 02:06 | 15:53 | 05:03 | 43 | 20:26 | 01:29 | 10:40 | 05:48 |
| 2010 | 18:19 | 00:29 | 06:54 | 05:38 | 43 | 20:05 | 01:19 | 10:02 | 05:46 |
| 2011 | 20:53 | 01:52 | 15:28 | 05:42 | 38 | 20:11 | 01:24 | 10:49 | 05:46 |
| 2012 | 14:26 | 02:25 | 05:11 | 04:43 | 50 | 19:28 | 01:31 | 10:06 | 05:38 |
| 2013 | 21:21 | 00:30 | 13:41 | 04:53 | 41 | 19:41 | 01:25 | 10:30 | 05:33 |
| 2014 | 10:21 | -00:06 | 13:01 | -01:13 | 37 | 18:45 | 01:15 | 10:45 | 04:52 |
| 2015 | 19:36 | 01:18 | 11:56 | 04:15 | 44 of 56 | 18:49 | 01:16 | 10:52 | 04:49 |
Male Race Participants
Roth does not have a “Pro” Category per se, so I may have missed some of the Professional athletes racing.
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 2 | Jan Frodeno | GER | 07:55:26 | 08:11:20 | 00:45:24 | 04:20:13 | 02:44:48 | 80% +20% -0% (5) | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 07:55:57 | 08:20:44 | 00:46:41 | 04:13:31 | 02:50:45 | 78% +0% -22% (7) | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | Tyler Butterfield | BMU | 08:13:32 | 08:35:20 | 00:47:26 | 04:26:41 | 02:54:24 | 46% +24% -30% (11) | 40 |
| 4 | 7 | Joe Skipper | GBR | 08:15:15 | 08:33:35 | 00:52:53 | 04:26:14 | 02:51:08 | 51% +27% -22% (11) | 32 |
| 5 | 5 | Cyril Viennot | FRA | 08:16:01 | 08:34:12 | 00:48:59 | 04:28:27 | 02:53:35 | 63% +24% -13% (15) | 35 |
| 6 | 4 | Per Bittner | GER | 08:16:09 | 08:42:19 | 00:47:41 | 04:27:20 | 02:56:07 | 52% +17% -31% (17) | 64 |
| 7 | 6 | Jan Raphael | GER | 08:24:21 | 08:38:32 | 00:47:23 | 04:34:25 | 02:57:32 | 91% +0% -9% (22) | 53 |
| 8 | 8 | Martin Jensen | DEN | 08:27:20 | 08:39:21 | 00:49:09 | 04:35:35 | 02:57:36 | 100% +0% -0% (3) | (55) |
| 9 | 9 | Thomas Hellriegel | GER | 08:31:59 | 09:09:16 | 00:49:57 | 04:24:12 | 03:12:50 | 22% +8% -69% (6) | (164) |
| 10 | 10 | Andreas Linden | SWE | 08:33:07 | 09:07:45 | 00:57:28 | 04:20:24 | 03:10:15 | 49% +0% -51% (2) | (159) |
| 11 | 21 | Bernd Hagen | GER | 08:35:53 | 09:06:41 | 00:54:32 | 04:41:03 | 02:55:19 | 99% +1% -0% (13) | (158) |
| 12 | 14 | Marcel Bischof | GER | 08:44:43 | 09:15:43 | 00:54:53 | 04:42:06 | 03:02:44 | 83% +17% -0% (13) | 190 |
| 13 | 18 | Xavier Diepart | BEL | 08:49:56 | 09:11:54 | 00:55:15 | 04:47:56 | 03:01:45 | 80% +14% -6% (8) | (175) |
| 14 | 24 | Tjardo Visser | NED | 08:56:00 | 09:26:32 | 00:50:45 | 04:58:47 | 03:01:28 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (216) |
| 15 | 16 | Luke Dragstra | CAN | 08:59:05 | 09:27:35 | 00:52:01 | 04:47:49 | 03:14:15 | 14% +2% -84% (22) | 220 |
| 16 | 23 | Thomas Naasz | NED | 08:59:45 | 09:27:06 | 00:54:33 | 04:49:27 | 03:10:46 | 100% +0% -0% (5) | 217 |
| 17 | 27 | Ivan Jezko | SVK | 09:13:03 | 09:42:32 | 00:58:53 | 04:54:00 | 03:15:11 | 42% +23% -34% (11) | 257 |
| 18 | 12 | Christian Jais | GER | 09:20:36 | 09:55:28 | 00:54:55 | 04:48:38 | 03:32:03 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (274) |
| 19 | 26 | Jeremy Howard | USA | 09:43:52 | 10:14:55 | 00:51:24 | 05:14:35 | 03:32:53 | 48% +0% -52% (2) | (291) |
| 20 | 25 | Rob Bobbaers | BEL | 09:44:50 | 10:18:08 | 00:59:17 | 04:55:46 | 03:44:47 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (292) |
| 21 | 28 | Henry Beck | GER | 09:57:56 | 10:35:08 | 00:47:42 | 04:49:21 | 04:15:53 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (297) |
| 11 | Robert Duncan | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 13 | Tobias Heining | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 15 | Daniel Mugica Corrales | ESP | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 17 | Nick Kastelein | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 19 | Lukas Storath | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 20 | Jurgen Van Oevelen | BEL | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 22 | Fabian Rahn | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | Daniela Ryf | SUI | 08:42:19 | 09:05:05 | 00:50:40 | 04:45:17 | 03:01:21 | 71% +0% -29% (6) | 2 | |
| 1 | 51 | Yvonne Van Vlerken | NED | 08:54:44 | 09:17:16 | 00:56:01 | 04:47:34 | 03:06:09 | 84% +0% -16% (23) | 10 |
| 3 | 53 | Anja Beranek | GER | 08:59:25 | 09:19:16 | 00:49:40 | 04:48:56 | 03:15:49 | 83% +6% -11% (7) | 15 |
| 4 | 52 | Carrie Lester | AUS | 09:01:22 | 09:29:35 | 00:52:27 | 04:54:55 | 03:09:00 | 58% +24% -17% (18) | 26 |
| 6 | 56 | Michelle Vesterby | DEN | 09:02:23 | 09:22:59 | 00:50:26 | 04:55:30 | 03:11:27 | 71% +4% -25% (17) | 18 |
| 7 | 54 | Mary Beth Ellis | USA | 09:03:29 | 09:17:57 | 00:49:53 | 04:53:27 | 03:15:08 | 93% +0% -7% (17) | 13 |
| 8 | 61 | Laura Siddall | GBR | 09:12:12 | 09:43:20 | 00:56:05 | 04:54:19 | 03:16:47 | 41% +44% -15% (6) | 55 |
| 9 | 60 | Erika Csomor | HUN | 09:13:02 | 09:33:50 | 00:57:35 | 05:00:43 | 03:09:45 | 81% +0% -19% (33) | 39 |
| 10 | 58 | Mirjam Weerd | NED | 09:15:08 | 09:39:58 | 00:51:54 | 04:59:22 | 03:18:52 | 85% +5% -10% (12) | 49 |
| 11 | 67 | Jessica Fleming | AUS | 09:32:01 | 09:53:57 | 00:59:04 | 05:03:27 | 03:24:30 | 88% +0% -12% (7) | 81 |
| 12 | 69 | Kathryn Haesner | NZL | 09:35:09 | 10:24:49 | 00:55:41 | 05:15:59 | 03:18:30 | 41% +59% -0% (2) | (148) |
| 13 | 63 | Monique Grossrieder | SUI | 09:40:31 | 10:08:08 | 01:02:54 | 05:14:59 | 03:17:38 | 45% +23% -32% (6) | (106) |
| 14 | 68 | Carla Van Rooijen | NED | 09:50:56 | 10:17:21 | 01:11:04 | 05:15:07 | 03:19:45 | 78% +22% -0% (6) | 122 |
| 15 | 62 | Caroline Gregory | USA | 09:51:50 | 10:20:21 | 00:54:32 | 05:28:50 | 03:23:28 | 59% +9% -32% (12) | 131 |
| 16 | 64 | Michelle Duffield | AUS | 09:55:28 | 10:20:34 | 01:00:08 | 05:21:03 | 03:29:17 | 77% +0% -23% (6) | 132 |
| 17 | 74 | Line Foss | NOR | 10:08:56 | 11:09:05 | 01:22:33 | 05:05:22 | 03:36:01 | 23% +24% -53% (4) | (173) |
| 18 | 66 | Fabiola Corona | MEX | 10:13:29 | 10:48:25 | 00:57:27 | 05:30:23 | 03:40:39 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (169) |
| 59 | Rachel McBride | CAN | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 65 | Franzi Bossow | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 70 | Jenny Latham | GBR | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 71 | Tereza Durdiakova | CZE | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 72 | Carole Fuchs | THA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 73 | Jenny Fletcher | CAN | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 75 | Daniela Zoll | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
Kona Champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite for this race – he’d love to get close or even beat Andreas Reeler’s 7:41 from 2011. But based on the “raw numbers” last year’s winner Nils Frommhold could get close and will be there if “Frodo” shows any sign of weakness.
- Jan Frodeno: 38% (2-1)
- Nils Frommhold: 27% (3-1)
- Tyler Butterfield: 10% (9-1)
- Joe Skipper: 10% (9-1)
- Cyril Viennot: 8% (11-1)
Female Race Participants
Yvonne Van Vlerken is already the female with the most sub-9 finishes – she has ten, ahead of Chrissie Wellington’s nine. She has won in Roth three times (same number as Chrissie) and would like to move ahead in this statistic as well.
- Yvonne Van Vlerken: 36% (2-1)
Meredith Kessler: 25% (3-1)- Carrie Lester: 16% (5-1)
- Michelle Vesterby: 12% (7-1)
- Anja Beranek: 7% (12-1)
Here are the odds after Daniela Ryf has been added to the field:
- Daniela Ryf: 60% (1-1)
- Yvonne Van Vlerken: 14% (6-1)
- Carrie Lester: 10% (9-1)
- Michelle Vesterby: 10% (9-1)
- Anja Beranek: 6% (17-1)