Ironman UK 2016 (July 17th) – Predictions

Update July 10th: Congratulations to Brad Williams on the birth of his first child. Of course that takes precedence over racing.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2009	Philip Graves (GBR)	08:45:52	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:34:00
2010	Fraser Cartmell (GBR)	08:40:18	Yvette Grice (GBR)	10:01:03
2011	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:24:34	Kristin Moeller (GER)	09:19:04
2012	Daniel Halksworth (GBR)	08:55:11	Eimear Mullan (IRL)	10:08:44
2013	Daniel Halksworth (GBR)	08:45:48	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:29:12
2014	Cyril Viennot (FRA)	08:44:10	Tamsin Lewis (GBR)	09:52:12
2015	David McNamee (GBR)	08:46:37	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:31:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	David McNamee	GBR	00:48:01	05:02:34	02:51:48	08:46:37
2	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	00:48:28	04:58:39	02:59:52	08:51:06
3	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:56:06	04:58:30	02:55:44	08:55:38

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Lucy Gossage	GBR	00:59:11	05:22:56	03:03:43	09:31:58
2	Caroline Livesey	GBR	01:01:03	05:36:36	03:21:07	10:05:21
3	Alice Hector	GBR	00:56:49	05:59:01	03:16:06	10:18:46

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:24:34	Aaron Farlow	2011-07-31
Swim	overall	00:43:35	Fraser Cartmell	2010-08-01
Bike	overall	04:50:48	Cyril Viennot	2014-07-20
Run	overall	02:41:46	Aaron Farlow	2011-07-31
Total	female	09:19:04	Kristin Moeller	2011-07-31
Swim	female	00:48:19	Amanda Stevens	2012-07-22
Bike	female	05:22:13	Lucy Gossage	2013-08-04
Run	female	02:41:57	Kristin Moeller	2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is – 03:43.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2009	02:29	-03:02	-10:14	10:31	20	02:29	-03:02	-10:14	10:31
2010	01:11	04:35	-23:58	09:10	14	01:50	00:46	-17:06	09:50
2011	08:38	04:47	-14:27	22:54	16	04:06	02:07	-16:13	14:12
2012	-06:47	00:02	-09:59	02:04	11	01:23	01:35	-14:40	11:10
2013	-05:23	04:05	-12:08	02:59	15	00:02	02:05	-14:09	09:32
2014	-09:47	01:11	-14:57	01:20	16 of 21	-01:36	01:56	-14:17	08:10
2015	-16:19	-01:11	-20:05	00:55	20 of 24	-03:43	01:29	-15:07	07:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Similar to IM Frankfurt, the defending women’s champion has the honor of racing with bib #1.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:20:22	09:17:37	00:56:19	05:17:58	03:01:05	92% +0% -8% (12)	11
2	2	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:34:52	09:28:30	00:56:56	05:20:32	03:12:25	58% +9% -33% (18)	24
3	3	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:39:11	09:35:55	01:00:50	05:37:14	02:56:08	83% +15% -2% (17)	41
4	6	Katja Konschak	GER	09:43:56	09:53:47	00:51:40	05:42:03	03:05:13	39% +43% -18% (16)	80
5	4	Lucy Charles	GBR	09:53:49	10:01:38	00:45:46	05:41:16	03:21:48	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(95)
6	7	Kate Comber	GBR	10:04:23	10:06:14	00:52:15	05:45:10	03:21:58	100% +0% -0% (2)	(102)
7	8	Vicky Gill	GBR	10:06:30	10:25:04	01:02:37	05:39:39	03:19:14	10% +46% -44% (3)	(148)
8	5	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:20:55	10:21:50	00:59:40	05:53:01	03:23:14	61% +20% -19% (11)	134

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	35	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	08:42:07	08:48:19	00:46:27	04:53:22	02:57:18	57% +14% -28% (9)	81
2	21	Michael Raelert	GER	08:42:21	08:47:46	00:46:15	04:57:51	02:53:15	11% +20% -69% (4)	(79)
3	24	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:43:56	08:44:11	00:47:10	04:52:21	02:59:25	61% +20% -19% (27)	67
4	27	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:44:28	08:49:21	00:51:51	04:53:30	02:54:06	61% +19% -20% (11)	87
5	25	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:46:15	08:44:28	00:51:52	04:57:19	02:52:04	75% +0% -25% (10)	68
6	26	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	08:46:59	09:16:16	00:46:07	05:06:13	02:49:38	2% +39% -59% (9)	193
7	29	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:50:40	08:58:34	00:48:45	05:11:39	02:45:17	47% +0% -53% (4)	(118)
8	31	Denis Sketako	SLO	08:52:07	08:58:52	00:52:25	04:57:36	02:57:06	51% +49% -0% (3)	120
9	23	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:53:51	08:53:05	00:46:08	05:03:06	02:59:37	26% +32% -42% (14)	98
10	22	Markus Thomschke	GER	08:54:01	08:57:39	00:51:34	04:55:11	03:02:17	62% +12% -26% (15)	116
11	34	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	08:59:36	09:03:01	00:49:24	04:55:21	03:09:50	35% +31% -34% (9)	139
12	36	Patrick Evoe	USA	09:03:37	08:57:10	00:54:26	05:01:06	03:03:05	87% +4% -9% (22)	112
13	28	Nick Baldwin	SEY	09:04:46	09:02:31	00:51:36	05:03:45	03:04:25	60% +0% -40% (16)	136
14	33	Simon Billeau	FRA	09:06:53	09:03:29	00:53:00	04:58:47	03:10:06	43% +0% -57% (17)	142
15	38	Graeme Stewart	GBR	09:09:45	09:10:34	00:52:39	05:11:52	03:00:13	53% +9% -38% (12)	168
16	32	Oliver Simon	GBR	09:21:18	09:38:53	00:47:42	05:10:09	03:18:26	55% +0% -45% (12)	251
17	30	Brad Williams	USA	09:27:25	09:46:13	00:54:46	05:13:26	03:14:13	76% +0% -24% (4)	264
18	37	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:32:29	09:38:41	00:56:09	05:09:13	03:22:06	73% +25% -1% (14)	250
19	39	Peter Kern	GER	09:38:13	10:02:53	00:54:28	05:15:53	03:22:52	16% +0% -84% (7)	(284)
	40	Chris Whitcombe	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side defending champion and race favorite Lucy Gossage is already safe for Kona. I also consider Katja Konschak safe at 4.860 points after finishing second at IM Germany, but she said she wants to be absolutely certain of qualifying and wants to control things herself. Among the others, the following athletes still have a chance for a July slot

• Tine Deckers (3840), needs a 3rd place
• Kristin Moeller (3145), needs a 2nd place

Male Race Participants

There are quite a large number of athletes that are still looking to secure a July slot, here’s the result they roughly need:

• 6th: Michael Raelert
• 4th: Markus Thomschke
• 3rd: Harry Wiltshire, Romain Guillaume
• 2nd: Andrej Vistica, Fabio Carvalho, Kirill Kotshegarov

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

• Lucy Gossage: 65% (1-1)
• Tine Deckers: 16% (5-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 9% (10-1)
• Katja Konschak: 9% (10-1)

Male Race Participants

• Fraser Cartmell: 26% (3-1)
• Kirill Kotshegarov: 19% (4-1)
• Romain Guillaume: 17% (5-1)
• Michael Raelert: 12% (7-1)
• Andrej Vistica: 10% (9-1)
• Harry Wiltshire: 6% (15-1)