Ironman Lanzarote 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions

Have some fun predicting the Lanzarote podium at IM Predictions – and you may even win a nice prize!

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:55:38	Virginia Berasategui (ESP)	10:09:40
2006	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:54:14	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:52:45
2007	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:49:39	Tiina Boman (FIN)	09:58:42
2008	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:59:40	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	10:02:30
2009	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:54:03	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:54:58
2010	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:37:43	Catriona Morrison (GBR)	10:03:53
2011	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:30:34	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	09:28:12
2012	Victor Del Corral (ESP)	08:44:39	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	09:58:06
2013	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:42:40	Kristin Moeller (GER)	09:37:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	00:47:48	04:53:03	02:55:03	08:42:40
2	Miquel Blanchart	ESP	00:47:55	05:04:03	02:54:20	08:52:08
3	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	00:51:42	05:06:34	02:58:58	09:04:09

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kristin Moeller	GER	01:00:03	05:31:47	02:58:37	09:37:34
2	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NED	01:05:41	05:39:08	03:17:28	10:09:31
3	Saleta Castro	ESP	00:54:46	05:55:26	03:16:37	10:14:27

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:30:34	Timo Bracht	2011-05-21
Swim	overall	00:46:15	Luc Van Lierde	2006-05-20
Bike	overall	04:40:58	Maik Twelsiek	2010-05-22
Run	overall	02:44:29	Gerrit Schellens	2005-06-04
Total	female	09:28:12	Rachel Joyce	2011-05-21
Swim	female	00:50:40	Hillary Biscay	2010-05-22
Bike	female	05:26:23	Tara Norton	2010-05-22
Run	female	02:58:37	Kristin Moeller	2013-05-18

Course Rating

Traditionally, Lanzarote is one of the slowest Ironman races with a Course Rating of – 11:14, mainly because of a hilly and windy bike course.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
2006	-06:54	02:14	-22:36	01:38	26	-06:54	02:14	-22:36	01:38
2007	-11:54	-01:07	-10:01	-04:27	31	-09:24	00:33	-16:19	-01:25
2008	-13:01	00:44	-18:42	05:10	37	-10:36	00:37	-17:07	00:47
2009	-08:22	-00:10	-14:39	03:52	40	-10:03	00:25	-16:30	01:33
2010	-07:04	01:30	-09:59	00:27	32	-09:27	00:38	-15:12	01:20
2011	-08:08	02:20	-16:39	04:53	20	-09:14	00:55	-15:26	01:55
2012	-16:14	00:51	-17:46	04:05	16	-10:14	00:55	-15:46	02:14
2013	-18:18	00:20	-19:54	03:32	18	-11:14	00:50	-16:17	02:24

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	7	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:49:46	08:38:58	00:52:11	04:41:16	03:00:01	38
2	2	Miquel Blanchart	ESP	08:53:33	08:42:40	00:48:35	04:51:02	02:55:35	51
3	14	Michael Goehner	GER	08:55:41	08:44:46	00:53:08	04:42:21	03:01:57	56
4	3	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:56:35	08:45:39	00:52:19	04:40:10	03:04:08	57
5	5	Bert Jammaer	BEL	08:57:23	08:46:26	00:49:09	04:46:10	03:05:32	61
6	20	Herve Faure	FRA	08:58:04	08:47:06	00:50:55	04:49:00	03:00:56	(64)
7	8	Scott Neyedli	GBR	09:02:06	08:51:03	00:50:29	04:51:03	03:01:02	82
8	17	Markus Thomschke	GER	09:04:19	08:53:13	00:53:46	04:44:11	03:08:26	97
9	41	Darby Thomas	FIN	09:08:49	08:57:38	00:57:22	04:45:05	02:59:38	(115)
10	12	Sergio Marques	POR	09:08:57	08:57:45	00:54:59	05:01:35	02:58:24	117
11	15	Joel Jameson	GBR	09:09:15	08:58:03	00:56:32	04:56:04	02:57:27	120
12	6	Romain Guillaume	FRA	09:11:15	09:00:01	00:49:30	04:46:17	03:18:47	126
13	13	Nicholas Ward Munoz	GBR	09:11:24	09:00:09	00:56:14	04:59:41	02:58:19	128
14	40	Christian Brader	GER	09:11:35	09:00:20	00:56:24	04:52:43	03:07:12	130
15	38	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	09:13:04	09:01:47	00:48:28	04:57:01	03:10:53	141
16	60	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	09:13:48	09:02:30	00:55:48	04:57:21	03:03:27	142
17	42	Dominik Berger	AUT	09:14:03	09:02:45	00:48:21	04:51:41	03:18:24	144
18	44	Flo Kriegl	AUT	09:15:04	09:03:45	00:54:10	04:50:38	03:06:18	(146)
19	55	Mike Schifferle	SUI	09:15:09	09:03:50	01:00:15	04:50:59	03:06:04	147
20	11	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	09:18:02	09:06:39	00:52:43	04:51:49	03:14:13	160
21	18	Jens Kaiser	GER	09:19:22	09:07:58	00:58:07	04:49:55	03:11:14	163
22	57	Roeland Smits	NED	09:19:55	09:08:30	00:53:27	04:51:31	03:06:39	(167)
23	16	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	09:21:16	09:09:49	00:47:32	04:47:42	03:19:20	(171)
24	56	Paul Hawkins	GBR	09:33:11	09:21:30	00:58:33	05:28:51	03:20:29	(209)
25	37	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:44:25	09:32:30	00:52:32	04:53:06	03:37:46	248
26	48	Jose Ortega Serran	ESP	09:47:36	09:35:37	00:57:12	04:55:08	03:20:00	(260)
27	47	Jorge Rakos	ARG	09:47:49	09:35:50	00:50:39	05:18:24	03:17:32	(262)
28	49	Kasper Ougaard	DEN	09:55:42	09:43:33	01:02:02	04:57:28	03:26:39	(290)
29	52	Martin Cain	GBR	10:09:05	09:56:40	00:58:54	05:15:52	03:33:06	337
30	59	Teemu Kyllonen	FIN	10:21:22	10:08:42	01:00:13	05:12:07	03:46:04	367
31	43	Fernando Cuenllas	ESP	10:21:31	10:08:51	00:54:41	05:06:57	03:46:19	(369)
	39	Christian Birngruber	AUT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	58	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	53	Michael Louys	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	19	Rayco miguel Marrero	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	54	Miguel Platero	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	61	Victor Rodriguez	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	51	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	46	Iván Álvarez Gómez	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	9	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:38:48	09:27:00	00:57:31	05:07:36	03:10:37	13
2	10	Sonja Tajsich	GER	09:41:43	09:29:51	01:03:11	05:13:05	03:07:46	(16)
3	21	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:45:48	09:33:51	01:01:35	05:06:46	03:17:14	22
4	31	Corinne Abraham	GBR	09:47:54	09:35:55	01:01:57	05:18:26	03:11:43	(26)
5	1	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:48:13	09:36:13	01:03:46	05:20:45	03:06:22	26
6	23	Susan Blatt	GER	09:53:12	09:41:06	00:57:19	05:14:04	03:23:46	37
7	22	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	10:02:19	09:50:02	00:56:59	05:07:18	03:35:11	61
8	25	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	10:12:12	09:59:43	01:08:44	05:23:08	03:17:18	82
9	29	Beate Goertz	GER	10:12:26	09:59:57	01:05:06	05:05:26	03:25:20	(83)
10	34	Karina Ottosen	DEN	10:26:55	10:14:08	00:58:36	05:34:09	03:32:28	106
11	33	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	10:27:31	10:14:43	01:02:57	05:28:28	03:24:24	(110)
12	4	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:31:31	10:18:38	00:56:23	05:29:26	03:44:38	115
13	26	Joanna Carritt	GBR	10:33:19	10:20:24	01:02:32	05:31:10	03:35:42	117
14	28	Anne Basso	FRA	10:37:00	10:24:01	00:59:14	05:37:22	03:45:17	125
15	30	Christine Waitz	GER	10:43:54	10:30:46	01:03:25	05:41:20	03:39:49	(133)
16	24	Vanessa Pereira	POR	10:46:36	10:33:25	01:02:12	05:36:51	03:35:22	(133)
	32	Eleanor Haresign	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	27	Alena Stevens	SVK	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	36	Stefanie Adam	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	35	Line margareta Foss	NOR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If he is back in form after his DNF in South Africa, Ronnie Schildknecht is the clear favorite for the race:

• Ronnie Schildknecht: 60% (1-1)
• Markus Thomschke: 8% (12-1)
• Miquel Blanchart: 7% (14-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 5% (20-1)
• Michael Goehner: 5% (21-1)
• Sergio Marques: 3% (28-1)
• Bert Jammaer: 3% (30-1)
• Scott Neyedli: 2% (44-1)
• Henrik Hyldelund: 2% (49-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, there are at least five athletes with a good chance to win the race. The statistics clearly favor Sonja and Kristin, but Lucy Gossage seems to be the athlete with the biggest momentum:

• Sonja Tajsich: 34% (2-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 31% (2-1)
• Lucy Gossage: 18% (5-1)
• Natascha Badmann: 12% (8-1)
• Corinne Abraham: 2% (56-1)