This is an updated version of the start list in my 2013 Summer Rating Report (you can download your free copy here). If you want to make your own predictions on the Frankfurt race, check out IM-Betting.com for a chance to win some cool prizes!
Here’s how the men’s race in Frankfurt could unfold:
With such a big and strong field, things could get quite crowded in Frankfurt:
- Almost the full men’s field will be within 10 minutes of the leader (and I’m not even showing the full Pro field in this graph). The best-rated swimmer is David Dellow, he’ll probably lead the race until about the half way mark.
- The two “über bikers” Marino and Sebastian (if he managed to get in decent shape for the race) will move through the field and try to take control of the race on the bike. Eneko and David will try to limit the difference, as will Andi Böcherer, another great biker.
- Under normal circumstances, Marino should be able to defend his title. However, Eneko has been in great form this year and might try to challenge him (as he did in Melbourne). It will also be interesting to see if Ivan Rana (with his great running capabilities) manages to get into the mix. (It’ll probably depend on whether he’ll be able to step up on the bike to stay close to the front.)
- Sebi is probably not on his best form, so I can’t see him staying close to Marino and Eneko. David Dellow is a great runner, but if he’s smart he’ll be happy to just punch his Kona ticket and try to fully build for October. As usual, Pete Jacobs will save his best performance for Kona.
- None of the other athletes will be able to vastly improve their positions after the bike, instead I see a group of 10+ athletes coming off the bike ten to fifteen minutes back. These will try to duke it out for the last money spots and some great KPR points.
The question in the women’s race will be if anyone will be able to challenge Jodie Swallow:
- Jodie has the best rating coming into the race, and she could lead the race from start to finish. (I fiddled a bit with her data, making her bike a bit slower but her run a bit faster than her single race would indicate. In IM South Africa she was leading by a wide margin after the bike but was overtaken on the run when she ran into problems.) It’s tricky to predict her performance after just a single IM, but she’s a very experienced racer and I expect her to race a bit smarter in Frankfurt than in South Africa.
- Behind Jodie, there will be a group of athletes a few minutes behind her after the swim. From these, Camilla Pedersen and Anja Beranek are probably the only ones that can stay in the same ZIP code as Jodie. However, Camilla and Anja would need a fantastic run to be able to make it to the front.
- Things will get a lot more interesting on the run. The strongest runners appear to be Elizabeth Lyles and Kristin Moeller. However, it would take an exceptional performance from any of these athletes to challenge Jodie for the win. But watch out if any of them is “only” about 15 minutes behind Jodie at the start of the run.