Ironman Hawaii 2020 – Seedings

Today, October 10th would have been race day for the 2020 IronmanWorld Championships in Kona. The whole 2020 racing season has been disrupted, including the Kona race which has first been postponed to February 2021 and then completely canceled.

This post has a look at what my seedings could have looked like – obviously even more caveats apply than for my normal seedings. For example, almost none of the athletes mentioned have raced since Kona, even fewer on the full distance. The result is that the 2020 seedings mainly ending up as a mixture of the 2019 seedings plus the results of Kona 2019. Therefore, take these more as a discussion starter than some definitive endpoint – after all results are always determined on the racecourse!

I can’t wait to see a return to racing and hopefully a more normal 2021 season, including new results by the main contenders – leading to even more interesting speculations for the next Kona race on October 9th, 2021.

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:47:31	04:16:02	02:42:43	07:51:13
2	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:47:38	04:18:11	02:49:45	07:59:41
3	Sebastian Kienle	GER	00:52:17	04:15:04	02:49:56	08:02:04

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Anne Haug	GER	00:54:09	04:50:17	02:51:07	08:40:10
2	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	00:49:02	04:47:20	03:05:59	08:46:44
3	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:54:05	04:50:13	02:59:20	08:48:13

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:51:13	Jan Frodeno	2019-10-12
Swim	overall	00:46:29	Jan Sibbersen	2018-10-13
Bike	overall	04:09:06	Cameron Wurf	2018-10-13
Run	overall	02:39:45	Patrick Lange	2016-10-08
Total	female	08:26:18	Daniela Ryf	2018-10-13
Swim	female	00:48:14	Lucy Charles-Barclay	2018-10-13
Bike	female	04:26:07	Daniela Ryf	2018-10-13
Run	female	02:50:26	Mirinda Carfrae	2014-10-11

Seedings for Male Race

#	Name	Nat	Expected	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Kona Consistency
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	07:59:02	00:48:48	04:20:18	05:14:06	02:44:56	80% +0% -20% (5)
2	Patrick Lange	GER	08:02:15	00:50:59	04:26:09	05:22:09	02:40:06	54% +0% -46% (4)
3	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:05:51	00:53:17	04:16:51	05:15:07	02:50:44	76% +0% -24% (8)
4	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:09:17	00:51:17	04:25:54	05:22:11	02:47:06	76% +16% -8% (9)
5	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:10:27	00:49:17	04:23:41	05:17:58	02:52:29	82% +14% -4% (9)
6	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:12:48	00:54:12	04:22:35	05:21:47	02:51:01	89% +0% -11% (4)
7	Braden Currie	NZL	08:13:36	00:49:42	04:30:15	05:24:57	02:48:39	82% +0% -18% (3)
8	Bart Aernouts	BEL	08:13:40	00:56:14	04:26:05	05:27:19	02:46:21	70% +24% -5% (8)
9	Florian Angert	GER	08:14:04	00:49:44	04:23:16	05:18:00	02:56:04	n/a (no Kona Pro race)
10	Cameron Wurf	AUS	08:15:38	00:53:25	04:17:21	05:15:46	02:59:52	100% +0% -0% (3)
13	Javier Gomez	ESP	08:17:58	00:49:44	04:30:05	05:24:48	02:53:10	100% +0% -0% (1)
17	Alistair Brownlee	GBR	08:19:26	00:49:00	04:22:43	05:16:43	03:02:43	100% +0% -0% (1)
19	Lionel Sanders	CAN	08:19:33	00:55:03	04:18:11	05:18:13	03:01:20	58% +16% -26% (5)
27	Josh Amberger	AUS	08:30:40	00:48:34	04:28:58	05:22:31	03:08:09	18% +0% -82% (3)

Seedings for Female Race

#	Name	Nat	Expected	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Kona Consistency
1	Anne Haug	GER	08:47:11	00:55:30	04:54:20	05:54:51	02:52:20	62% +38% -0% (2)
2	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:47:21	00:56:34	04:44:22	05:45:57	03:01:24	33% +25% -42% (6)
3	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	08:50:30	00:49:56	04:50:09	05:45:05	03:05:25	51% +49% -0% (3)
4	Laura Philipp	GER	08:57:01	01:00:20	04:49:34	05:54:55	03:02:06	100% +0% -0% (1)
5	Sarah Crowley	AUS	08:59:03	00:55:39	04:53:29	05:54:08	03:04:55	56% +44% -0% (4)
6	Teresa Adam	NZL	09:02:47	00:53:29	04:52:04	05:50:33	03:12:14	100% +0% -0% (1)
7	Heather Jackson	USA	09:04:02	09:06:07	04:51:51	05:57:20	03:06:42	94% +6% -0% (5)
8	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:05:32	09:05:30	04:54:17	05:55:41	03:09:51	73% +0% -27% (5)
9	Corinne Abraham	GBR	09:07:18	01:03:00	04:53:18	06:01:19	03:05:59	100% +0% -0% (4)
10	Daniela Bleymehl	GER	09:11:05	00:59:48	04:48:27	05:53:15	03:17:50	82% +0% -18% (2)