Ironman Hawaii 2020 – Seedings

Today, October 10th would have been race day for the 2020 IronmanWorld Championships in Kona. The whole 2020 racing season has been disrupted, including the Kona race which has first been postponed to February 2021 and then completely canceled.

This post has a look at what my seedings could have looked like – obviously even more caveats apply than for my normal seedings. For example, almost none of the athletes mentioned have raced since Kona, even fewer on the full distance. The result is that the 2020 seedings mainly ending up as a mixture of the 2019 seedings plus the results of Kona 2019. Therefore, take these more as a discussion starter than some definitive endpoint – after all results are always determined on the racecourse!

I can’t wait to see a return to racing and hopefully a more normal 2021 season, including new results by the main contenders – leading to even more interesting speculations for the next Kona race on October 9th, 2021.

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:47:31 04:16:02 02:42:43 07:51:13
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:38 04:18:11 02:49:45 07:59:41
3 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:17 04:15:04 02:49:56 08:02:04

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Anne Haug GER 00:54:09 04:50:17 02:51:07 08:40:10
2 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:49:02 04:47:20 03:05:59 08:46:44
3 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:54:05 04:50:13 02:59:20 08:48:13

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:51:13 Jan Frodeno 2019-10-12
Swim overall 00:46:29 Jan Sibbersen 2018-10-13
Bike overall 04:09:06 Cameron Wurf 2018-10-13
Run overall 02:39:45 Patrick Lange 2016-10-08
Total female 08:26:18 Daniela Ryf 2018-10-13
Swim female 00:48:14 Lucy Charles-Barclay 2018-10-13
Bike female 04:26:07 Daniela Ryf 2018-10-13
Run female 02:50:26 Mirinda Carfrae 2014-10-11

Seedings for Male Race

# Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Kona Consistency
1 Jan Frodeno GER 07:59:02 00:48:48 04:20:18 05:14:06 02:44:56 80% +0% -20% (5)
2 Patrick Lange GER 08:02:15 00:50:59 04:26:09 05:22:09 02:40:06 54% +0% -46% (4)
3 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:05:51 00:53:17 04:16:51 05:15:07 02:50:44 76% +0% -24% (8)
4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:09:17 00:51:17 04:25:54 05:22:11 02:47:06 76% +16% -8% (9)
5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:10:27 00:49:17 04:23:41 05:17:58 02:52:29 82% +14% -4% (9)
6 Joe Skipper GBR 08:12:48 00:54:12 04:22:35 05:21:47 02:51:01 89% +0% -11% (4)
7 Braden Currie NZL 08:13:36 00:49:42 04:30:15 05:24:57 02:48:39 82% +0% -18% (3)
8 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:13:40 00:56:14 04:26:05 05:27:19 02:46:21 70% +24% -5% (8)
9 Florian Angert GER 08:14:04 00:49:44 04:23:16 05:18:00 02:56:04 n/a (no Kona Pro race)
10 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:15:38 00:53:25 04:17:21 05:15:46 02:59:52 100% +0% -0% (3)
13 Javier Gomez ESP 08:17:58 00:49:44 04:30:05 05:24:48 02:53:10 100% +0% -0% (1)
17 Alistair Brownlee GBR 08:19:26 00:49:00 04:22:43 05:16:43 03:02:43 100% +0% -0% (1)
19 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:19:33 00:55:03 04:18:11 05:18:13 03:01:20 58% +16% -26% (5)
27 Josh Amberger AUS 08:30:40 00:48:34 04:28:58 05:22:31 03:08:09 18% +0% -82% (3)

Seedings for Female Race

# Name Nat Expected ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Kona Consistency
1 Anne Haug GER 08:47:11 00:55:30 04:54:20 05:54:51 02:52:20 62% +38% -0% (2)
2 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:47:21 00:56:34 04:44:22 05:45:57 03:01:24 33% +25% -42% (6)
3 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 08:50:30 00:49:56 04:50:09 05:45:05 03:05:25 51% +49% -0% (3)
4 Laura Philipp GER 08:57:01 01:00:20 04:49:34 05:54:55 03:02:06 100% +0% -0% (1)
5 Sarah Crowley AUS 08:59:03 00:55:39 04:53:29 05:54:08 03:04:55 56% +44% -0% (4)
6 Teresa Adam NZL 09:02:47 00:53:29 04:52:04 05:50:33 03:12:14 100% +0% -0% (1)
7 Heather Jackson USA 09:04:02 09:06:07 04:51:51 05:57:20 03:06:42 94% +6% -0% (5)
8 Carrie Lester AUS 09:05:32 09:05:30 04:54:17 05:55:41 03:09:51 73% +0% -27% (5)
9 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:07:18 01:03:00 04:53:18 06:01:19 03:05:59 100% +0% -0% (4)
10 Daniela Bleymehl GER 09:11:05 00:59:48 04:48:27 05:53:15 03:17:50 82% +0% -18% (2)
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