Analysis

This post analyzes the importance of the different legs in a long-distance triathlon and how many of the leaders in T1 and T2 end up winning the race. For the 2017 season, there are 74 data points (40 different race courses: 7 Challenge races, 26 Ironman races with male and female fields, 6 single-gender Ironman races, and Embrun). There are links to all the results mentioned, so feel free to explore some of the amazing 2017 races!

Best Swim (also Leading in T1): 19%

In 2017, the swim leaders were able to win slightly more races (14 out of 74 or 19%) than in previous years (2016: 14%, 2015: 17%). Athletes that lead in T1 and go on to win the race usually lead “wire-to-wire”. As in previous years, there was only one instance where an athlete “lost” the lead on the bike and then re-claimed it on the run. This year it was Clemente Alonso-McKernan who had the fastest swim at IM Sweden but then was more than seven minutes behind Cameron Wurf in T2 before putting ten minutes into Cam to win the race.

Not very many athletes are able to have the best times in all three legs, in 2017 there were four: Daniela Ryf (winning IM South Africa), Timothy O’Donnell (winning IM Boulder), Jan Frodeno (winning IM Austria) and Laurel Wassner (winning IM Taiwan). It is much more common to win a race with “a balanced performance”, without having the fastest time in any leg: In 2016 there were 11 races, this season there were 13.

Of course there are a lot of athletes that can win the race even when they are not part of “the front group” after the swim. However, 80% of all winners in Ironman-distance races are less than 4:55 behind in T1. It is quite rare to see athletes winning a race that are more than ten minutes behind after the swim (in 2016 there were only 4 races or 5%). The biggest T1-deficit was overcome by Jodie Robertson who was 13:39 behind Lauren Brandon, the T1 leader at IM Texas. On the male side, Timothy Van Houtem made up 12:21 at Challenge Madrid. The slowest swims by IM winners were a 1:10:23 by Lisa Roberts at Challenge Madrid and Lukas Krämer who won Challenge Venice with a 1:01:33 swim.

Best Bike: 57%

As the bike is the longest leg in Ironman, of course it does have a large influence on the outcome. This was even more evident in 2017 (42 of 74 races or 57%) than in previous years (2016: 49%; 2015: 54%).

Similar to the swim, 80% of the winners are within 4 minutes (3:51 to be exact) of the fastest bike leg in a race. Only six athletes in 2017 were able to “afford” losing more than ten minutes on the run to the fastest bike riders. Lisa Roberts lost 17:22 to Rachel McBride at IM Cozumel, and Patrick Lange lost 15:59 to Cam Wurf at IM Hawaii.

Leading in T2: 58%

“Leading in T2” continues to be the best indicator for winning a race. This year’s share of 58% (43 out of 74 races) is similar to previous years (2016: 50%; 2015: 57%).

Even with a T2 lead, you still have to run pretty well to win the race, even if we saw two 2017 winners lose 20 minutes on the run – but those were super-bikers Andy Starykowicz (losing 20:33 to 17th place finisher Josh Terwood when winning IM Louisville) and Cam Wurf (losing 19:22 at IM Wales to Andrej Vistica who ended up in fourth place). As for most of the “80% gaps”, T2 leaders that go on to win the race lose less than five minutes on the run.

Best Run: 49%

Having the fastest run is another strong winning indicator. This year’s number (36 out of 74 or 49%) is almost the same as previously (2016: 49%; 2015: 40%). 80% of the winners were able to post times within 4:56 of the fastest run splits. Most of the slow run times by winners were caused by tough climatic conditions: The three slowest marathon times by winners were Laurel Wassner’s 3:49 at IM Taiwan, Verena Walter’s 3:25 at Challenge Taiwan and Diana Riesler’s 3:19 at IM Malaysia – all in tough conditions and all three within four minutes of the best run splits. (Laurel even had the fastest female run split at IM Taiwan.)

There were some pretty large gaps that winners were able to make up on the run: Lisa Roberts made up 24:46 at IM Cozumel (followed by Rachel Joyce 12:24 at IM Mont Tremblant), on the male side Matt Hanson won at IM Texas even being 15:10 behind in T2, another big gap was Patrick Lange’s 10:55 deficit in Kona. Typically the gap has to be much smaller, 80% of winners are within 5:14 of the leaders in T2.

I’ve recently posted about the fastest 2017 IM finishes, this post aggregates the data by continent and nations: Who were the fastest women in 2017?

Fastest Male IM Finishes by Continent

The continental situation is the same for the men as for the women: Europe, North America and Oceania are close together, Africa and South America are a bit back, followed by Asia/Pacific with a large gap. One surprise to me is that the fastest Oceania time in 2017 was posted by an athlete from New Zealand (Mike Phillips).

Fastest Male IM Finishes by Nation

There are always nations where the top spot is hotly contested (for example the “big nations” that have most of the wins: Australia, Great Britain, Germany, USA) and it’s not always easy to keep track of who’s been the fastest in the season. There were a number of national records this year, with the exception of Tim Don’s British record at IM Brasil they were all posted in Texas and Barcelona. (A complete list of national records can be found on my page on IM Records.)

I’ve recently posted about the fastest 2017 IM finishes, this post aggregates the data by continent and nations: Who were the fastest women in 2017?

Fastest Female IM Finishes by Continent

Looking at the fastest times by continent, a clear order is evident: Europe, North America and Oceania are close together, Africa and South America are a bit back, followed by Asia/Pacific with a large gap.

Fastest Female IM Finishes by Nation

There are always nations where the top spot is hotly contested (for example the “big nations” that have most of the wins: Australia, Great Britain, Germany, USA) and it’s not always easy to keep track of who’s been the fastest in the season. We’ve also seen a number of new national records this season, for example Helle Frederiksen’s 8:55 debut IM finish with a new Danish record was quite impressive. (A complete list of national records can be found on my page on IM Records.)

Rather than look at individual race results, this post shows aggregate data on 2017 races and answers the questions of which athletes have won multiple IM-distance races, which athletes have continued a “winning streak” on the same course, and which nation was able to score the most long-distance podiums and wins.

Multiple 2017 Winners

In 2016 Daniela Ryf was the only athlete who was able to win three Ironman-distance races. For 2017 the list of athletes with three wins is quite a bit longer:

• Daniela Ryf (IM South Africa, Challenge Roth, and Ironman Hawaii)
• Lucy Gossage (IM UK, IM Wales, and IM Italy)
• Yvonne Van Vlerken (Challenge Wanaka, Challenge Almere, and IM Barcelona)
• Lisa Roberts (Challenge Madrid, IM Louisville, and IM Cozumel)

There are also a number of athletes that had two wins:

• Sarah Crowley (IM Cairns and IM Germany)
• Rachel Joyce (IM Boulder and IM Mont Tremblant)
• Sebastian Kienle (IM Germany and IM Cozumel)
• Bart Aernouts (Ironman Lanzarote and Challenge Roth)
• Diana Riesler (Challenge Regensburg and Ironman Malaysia)

Winning Streaks

In November, Diana Riesler was able to win IM Malaysia for the fourth time in a row (see photo on the right, credit: Darren Ch’ng, Creative Clicks).

Diana’s “four-peat” is the longest currently active winning streak, and there are not many longer winning streaks that I could find: Meredith Kessler won IM New Zealand five times in a row (between 2012 and 2016, even if 2012 was shortened to a half IM) and Jo Lawn even six times in a row (between 2003 and 2008). On the male side, Cam Brown also won IM New Zealand five times in a row between 2001 and 2005. The longest winning streak I could find is Ronnie Schildknecht who won IM Switzerland between 2007 and 2013 seven times in a row.

Other currently active winning streaks are:

• 3 in a row (i.e. wins from 2015 to 2017):
  • Daniela Ryf at IM Hawaii
  • Lucy Gossage at IM UK
  • Lionel Sanders at IM Arizona
• 2 in a row (i.e. wins in 2016 and 2017):
  • Mel Hauschildt at IM Western Australia
  • Terenzo Bozzone also at IM Western Australia
  • Sebastian Kienle at IM Germany
  • Ben Hoffman at IM South Africa

Wins by Nation

Here’s a look at how the different nations did in the 2017 Ironman-distance races:

The USA continues to be the most successful nation, but while they were able to have 42 podium results in 2016, there were “only” 34 podiums in 2017. Germany continues to be in second place with 29 podiums (a slight reduction from last year’s 33). Great Britain have made a huge step forward compared to last year when they “only” had four wins and 19 podiums in total. Australia was also able to increase their total (16 podiums last year, 23 this year).

Fastest Times

The trend of an increasing number of fast times is continuing on the men’s side as well. While the there were only a handful in 2011 to 14, that number increased to eleven in 2015, 13 in 2016 and now 19 in 2017. The fastest time in 2017 was Tim Don’s 7:40 in Brasil, the second-fastest time ever on the IM-distance.

Best Performances

As on the female side, the best performances are dominated by the Kona results: The new course record by Patrick Lange is the best performance overall, while the Kona Top 5 take ranks 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6. Only Lionel Sanders and James Cunnama managed to have two of the ten best performances, their Kona races are complemented by wins with a fast time in Arizona and Hamburg.

2017 Ratings

With his Kona win, Patrick Lange has stormed to the front of the overall rankings. He has a solid gap to the next athletes, but his low number of IM races so far means that one weaker result could see him drop back quite a bit. But so far he’s been able to race well in each of his IM races (a win at a shortened IM Texas, third in Kona, a controlled sixth place at IM Frankfurt to qualify and a win in Kona), it appears that he is able to maximize his potential.

Foto: Patrick winning IM Kona, celebrated by six-time winners Dave Scott and Mark Allen. Credit: Ingo Kutsche

Behind Patrick, there are two more Germans: Sebastian Kienle after a good season but without the crowning achievement in Kona he was looking for and Jan Frodeno who had a solid summer IM but then problems in Kona but still finishing. Both of them will already be planning for Kona 2018 and how to put even more pressure on Patrick and the other top contenders.

After fast races in 2016, Patrik Nilsson put this year’s focus on Kona and was able to continue with his solid improvements. A third in Frankfurt and an eight in Kona indicate his potential. Lionel Sanders and David McNamee made huge steps forward in their Kona racing. Lionel had a great all-around day to finish second and David took third after missing out on a Top 10 result for a few years before. Both appeared happy with their achievements but hungry for more.